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  1. Past hour
  2. I wouldn't cry if we did.
  3. So can we ship Murph, Dahlbeck, Lack and our 1st to Colorado for Landeskog?
  4. The only reason i can imagine is that he's a righty. That and the fact the majority of our defensemen weren't eligible to be taken anyway. I mean the only defensemen we left exposed were Dahlbeck, Robertson, Samuelsson, and Tennyson. Dahlbeck is a lefty, Tennyson is obviously not on Peters' trusted list, and Samuelsson's only here because of his father anyway (and is a lefty), so there really isn't anyone else we would have used that protect for. However valuable Murphy may or may not be, i don't think Robertson (also a lefty) is any more valuable.
  5. So I miss all the mayhem of the past few days cause I wasn't at work (can't access this forum from regular Qatari internet...the site is blocked or something)... Dave Tippett performed nothing short of a miracle with Arizona...and the next coach is going to find out really quickly how bare the cupboard is. Joe Sakic is obviously smoking some of the legal reefer in Colorado, because it should be obvious to him by now that NO ONE is going to give him whatever his asking price is for Duchene and Landeskog. If he keeps this up, no GM will want to do business with him ever again. Love the TVR trade...but it leads me to ask: why did we waste a protect on Murph?
  6. Sure what is true today isn't necessarily true tomorrow but RF doesn't seem to make a lot of misleading pronouncements for posturing. At the same time RF doesn't make a lot of pronouncements when it comes to player moves but he does give us clues from time to time.
  7. Well it did say 'subject to change', and 'change' could be nothing more than X-GM calling and saying 'yo bro, i'll give you a free subscription to People if you'll give me Murphy'. It could all be posturing, sending a bit of a signal that he values the defensive unit he's built so that he gets good value if he does trade one.
  8. Does anyone else get the feeling that GM's have become frustrated with Joe Sakic. Does he really want to trade Duchesne? Duchesne is a talented player but has not put up star numbers in the league. In my opinion Sakic is asking for way too much in return.
  9. Today
  10. If anyone is interested in my case for Oshie, I put it in the long post area: scroll to bottom of page: http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/23943-house-of-tolstoy-place-for-long-posts/
  11. Why I'd sign TJ Oshie: The player. One of the fears is that we'd be paying a guy for a banner year. To be sure. And that IS a fair argument, and probably true to some extent. While it is possible that things get just crazy on Oshie (then I would back out), mostly things get "crazy". By that I mean maybe $1 million/year more than anyone thought. TJ Oshie isn't going to get Patrick Kane money. He will be overpaid. But so what? You're underpaying in player assets. As in zero. Another way of putting that: things will get "crazy" but not truly insane. But even if Oshie falls back from last year's high-elite numbers, he is pretty much a lock for 20 goals. Even if he is an overpaid piece, he will help us win for at least 4-5 years. Last year was nuts. He was on a 40 goal pace, and right there in terms of goals and points per game with Backstrom and Ovechkin. But he will not be paid like Ovechkin. Still, this he did. It is a possible upside. Can he do that without Ovechkin and Backstrom? Who knows? We've got some talent too. Probably not 40 goals (his shooting % was unreal last year, that won't continue), but 25 gets it done. Also, shootout goals aren't counted, and goodness knows we could use a few of those. Finally, the eyeball test. Oshie is a big, slick-skilled winger, not afraid of contact. He looks the part of a 60 point guy. In terms of assets, we get without giving. Yes, we pick up a contract (we of the most el cheapo team north of Arizona). Yes, a 36 year old TJ Oshie making $7 million/year will be a bad contract, probably. But we get at least 4-5 good years too probably. So front load the contract. Whatever. I know that this is a tough one to contemplate because it goes against everything we've seen from Francis so far. We are still smarting from the last UFA contracsky from hell. But as much as you have to learn from past mistakes, you also have to be able to avoid always fighting the last battle instead of the current one. And not avoid seeing the actual mistake that was made. The mistake with Semin, was that he was actually the guy people warned about. He was the lazy Russian coach-killer. If Semin had lived up to his potential, that deal would have made sense. Semin was the main problem. He made that a disaster. It is true that there is some risk that just giving a guy that big deal leads to lack of motivation. But that's only one possibility. For ever Semin there's a Carter, or Hossa. Plus, that's also true when you give your own guy a huge deal, cough Eric Staal cough. But the main thing I see is the value of not giving up a piece of our player pie. So long as Oshie's NTC is limited, we have so many assets that if we play our cards right, and Oshie doesn't pan out, we can move him along with assets if we have to. That mitigates the long term risk, while keeping the upside. Further, the moves that Francis can and will make with Fleury, Bean, Kuokkanen, Roy, Gauthier and way more guys coming into play will allow him to flex the team as needed. If Oshie's great, but Lindholm faulters, if Hanifin never quite becomes elite, but is very good as is Fleury, there are moves to be made by having all of those other guys in the fold. Further, signing Oshie now, thus not losing a Hanifin, Bean or Fleury now, lets those guys develop into the kind of player that bring back a top center. Trading any of those D men now necessitates getting low value on those prospects that Francis holds most dear. The cost of Oshie is at least partially offset by letting our prospects become much more valuable trade chips. What about signing our up and comers? They will need to be paid at some point. Well this could be it's own Tolstoy post. I have glanced at the cap numbers and there are a lot of moving parts. This year we could sign anyone x 2. Next year would be a pinch. Next year we need to sign Hanifin, Pesce, Slavin and Lindholm mainly. (Nordstrom ant TVR also, but if they get too pricey, we may have yutes to slot, so probably not huge cap issue). That is a lot to do, but they are all RFA's still and only Lindy has arbitration rights. Also, $3.0 million plus $2.7 million can be converted to say $1.5 as we re-adjust our back up goalies from Cam/Lack to "properly paid back up guy", and Wiz's $1 million buyout is gone. My back of the envelope calculations come to us having $25 million to sign Oshie, and sign Hanifin, Slavin, Pesce, Lindholm. Take Oshie's $7 million out. That leaves $18 million, but add back in what those guys currently make and we have 24-25 million to sign them AFTER Oshie. If Lindy breaks out, he will get paid. Slavin next. I see Hanifin and Pesce getting a bit less this go around. If Lindholm gets $5.5 million, Slavin $4.5 million - $5 million, Pesce $3.0 million, and Hanifin $3.0 million, that still leaves $7 million. The following year we have to deal with Aho (RFA), TT (RFA), and Skinner (UFA). But that's two full seasons away. Even then, remember, Skinner already makes $5.7 million, and Aho and TT are still both RFA's. Even if we bump Skinner to $7 million, that only costs 1.3 million in cap space. That could leaver around $5.7 million to bridge Aho, and TT assuming the cap doesn't go up. If the cap goes up, we can easily get them both in. In year three, 2020, Faulk's deal comes up. But that's after 3 full seasons and keeping everyone except Stempniak. Trying to go out past that is nuts because there are entry level yutes coming up, that could change everything for the better. We could almost certainly trade one contract away if we had to, and use entry level talent. If we keep this year's pick, young Suzuki will be contributing by then. But mainly, signing Oshie means we win now. We stop the death spiral. We sell tickets. We make the playoffs and get even more buzz. I'd rather let whoever buys this team and keeps them here worry about 36 year old Oshie 6 years from now, than watch Gauthier and Roy putting up points in Quebec 3 years from now. In terms of players, we get without giving. Yes, we pick up a contract (we of the most el cheapo team north of Arizona). Yes, a 36 year old TJ Oshie making $7 million/year will be a bad contract, probably. But we get at least 5 good years probably. So front load the contract. Whatever. I know that this is s tough one to contemplate because it goes against everything we've seen from Francis so far. We are still stung by the last UFA contracsky from hell, and over paying Ward/Eric. But as much as you have to learn from past mistakes, you also have to be able to avoid seeing the actual mistake. The mistake with Semin, was that he was actually the guy people warned about. He was the lazy Russian coach-killer. If Semin had lived up to his potential, that deal would have made sense. Semin was the main problem. Now one could say that just giving a guy that big deal leads to lack of motivation. But that's only one possibility. For ever Semin there's a Carter, or Hossa. But the main thing, I don't think people consider is the value of not giving up a piece of our player pie. So long as Oshie's NTC is limited, we have so many assets that if we play our cards right, and Oshie doesn't pan out, we can move him along with assets if we have to. Further, the moves that Francis can and will make with Fleury, Bean, Kuokkanen, Roy, Gauthier and way more guys coming into play will allow him to flex the team as needed. If Oshie's great, but Linholm faulters, if Hanifin never quite becomes elite, but is very good as is Fleury, there are moves to be made by having those guys still. Further, signing Oshie now, thus not losing a Hanifin, Bean or Fleury now, lets those guys develop into the kind of player that bring back a top center. Trading any of those D men now necessitates getting low value on those prospects that Francis holds most dear. The cost of Oshie is at least partially offset by letting our prospects become much more valuable trade chips. But mainly, signing Oshie means we win now. We stop the death spiral. We sell tickets. We make the playoffs and get even more buzz. I'd rather let whoever buys this team and keeps them here worry about 36 year old Oshie 6 years from now, than watch Gauthier and Roy putting up points in Quebec. Is this un Francis-like? In terms of picking up a contract that could hurt in the long run? Yes. In terms of his past quotes about being afraid of the "crazy time" of early UFA bidding? Yes. BUT in terms of not giving up anyone from his brood of closely held prospects? Oh that is very Francis-like. If Francis makes the splash though a trade, he has to lose a major prospect and picks, or a major current player. And just as Francis has never taken on a huge UFA contract, he has also never traded away a big time player or prospect, or a first round pick. So, either way, he has to make a move outside of his historic comfort zone. Do we sign Oshie? Highly unlikely. Not only might Francis not agree with any of this, but even if he did, he'd still would have to actually win the Oshie race. Not a good bet. Should we though? Oh yes.
  12. I think we should keep in mind we don't know who RF/BP have penciled in as the 6- 7 D-men. For all we know they have two of the prospects penciled in. But I'm with you RF saying we won't move any of our 7 seems a bit restrictive if the right trade comes up.
  13. The idea that Francis isn't open to trading Murphy or Dahlbeck if the right deal came along makes no sense. Again, 7 is a nutty number of D men off the table. Top 4, maybe 5 when return is factored in. My guess if the 7 number is not just a mistake, is that there is zero interest in Murphy and he and Dahlbeck, etc won't bring any needed return. Assuming that TVR is a keeper, which I think he is, then Francis has make all of the moves he needs to, except the big one. On TVR, I'd just say that despite all of the flowery talk of McKeown being NHL ready last year, his year in Charlotte did not create some Aho-like sense of predetermination for him on this year's opening roster. If anything Fleury finished strong, and was the high first rounder and needs to at the very least get his trade value up. I still think we go TVR - Dahlbeck as the 5-6, but Fleury needs to get some time sooner than later, and might beat Dahlbeck out. Keeping on that theme, what other moves do we need besides the big one? Francis managed to keep BOTH Stempniak and Nordstrom. Assuming he finds his big guy and doesn't lose a roster player, we really don't need anyone else anywhere. We could try for another journeyman 4th line center, I guess, but I still think we go with Wallmark. McClement is gone. That I can tell you. It's all down the getting that top forward. The rest is there. We have prospects, and picks, including our first rounder, out the ying yang. But can we compile enough of them to get without giving? I have no idea. Not so far though. And that's part of why I like Oshie.
  14. I have to admit that I haven't seen a ton of Blackhawk games, but TVR is a low risk / high reward type of transaction. As far as TVR vs Tennyson...from what I read his potential ceiling is higher, but not by much. TVR solid 5/6 with top 4 potential...Tennyson ceiling is probably 5/6 D pair...but who knows...maybe RF or BP didn't like Tennyson, or maybe he wouldn't resign, or maybe RF was just trying to add to the depth of RHD.
  15. I didn't watch Chicago last season with the exception of the Canes games. Is van Riemsdyk really an upgrade over Tennyson? I like more aspects of Tennyson's games than i dislike; he was actually the only one who looked good to me paired on the 3rd with Hanifin.
  16. So does anyone think when Tippett and Arizona met it was very mutual. GM: Dave we aren't progressing, I think we may need to go in a different direction. Dave: Really? You mean it? (Excited tone) GM: Yes! Dave: So you are going to pay ne to leave this mess? GM: Yes! Dave: Bye Felicia! or is this just how I would react if Arizona fired me?
  17. Okay, so as I feared, we not only travel to Western Canada for preseason, but do it again in Mid October. Behhhhhhht-man! Behhhhhhht-man! Behhhhhhht-man! YOU SUCK.
  18. I was wondering the same thing. My best guess is it's the 7 who suited up in the NHL last season - Slavin, Pesce, Hanifin, Faulk, Dahlbeck, van Riemsdyk, Murphy... everyone else is untested and probably wouldn't bring the return they could with a few NHL games under their belt.
  19. THIS!!! If we can get a scoring top 6 F with picks and prospects then I'm sure RF will pull the trigger...no way I trade any of our top 4 D nor Fleury. I would offer Bean, our 1st, Murphy or Dahlbeck, for a solid top 6 F...who that is & with what team???
  20. Good points. I do agree that based on Ronnie's stated approach and practice to date, he is not giving anybody over 30 more than five years. I hope that becomes a league-wide trend. Once a guy hits 35 going anything but year-to-year is potentially costly to the org (not to mention its fan base) for nothing in return. Oshie probably winds up out West, I'm thinking Kings.
  21. I actually do not want Oshie only because of the AAV and term that will come on his next contract. If we could give him a level contract like "he who shall not be named", OK, but I bet his agent will go for 7X7. Being the top FA on the market will drive his price up. I see us getting a top-6 Forward of some type perhaps using a top prospect and perhaps our 1st round pick. If we can do that, I think we will be in great shape for next year.
  22. This is a great trade for us as is stands right now. Right now our top 6 is: Slavin-Pesce Hanifan-Faulk Fleury/Dahlbeck - TVR/Murphy We used 1 extra second and 1 extra 3rd to end our search for defensemen and #1 goalie this offseason. And we haven't even hit Free Agency yet. So, all we need to do is get a scoring forward and this team will be dangerous come the fall. Bravo, GMRF!
  23. Owen Tippet for me.
  24. This defense we are putting together makes my heart sing. It's been a long time coming. Build From the goal out. If Darling can anchor this group look out. Go to work on the top-6
  25. I'd love to get Oshie. Oshie's numbers have been great the last few years but he has been paired with Ovechkin and Backstrom. Can he accomplish the same numbers in a Canes Uniform? He's average around 55 points the last four years and we all know his expertise in the PP and in the shoot outs. Is Ronnie and PK willing to extend a long term,big dollar contract with Oshie at age 30?. He will probably command around 6mil per year. I'd love to see him in a Canes Uni, not sure RF and PK are willing to make that investment.
  26. TSN final draft rankings give me Suzuki!!! He has next Skinner written all over him.
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