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sundance-ch1

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  1. Mrazek and McElhinney have now played in 33 games resulting in 37 points (1.12 points per game or about 10 points ever 9 games). If they continue at this pace over the next 41 games, they will add 46 points. For the team, the projected finish would be 89 points. Notably, if the 1.12 points per game was for the entire 82 game season, the projected finish would have been 92 points. What is now needed over the second half of the season to be in contention for a playoff spot is 10 points every 8 games, a difficult task. If a move is to be made to increase the offense, it must be done now.
  2. Is the proper assumption that if we need to call up a goalie from Charlotte it would be Darling?
  3. I remember former head coach Kirk Muller being asked once again about the failure of the Hurricanes power play. His response was simply "...maybe they just can't do it".
  4. If Kaiton took over both an expanded pre-game broadcast and redid the post-game broadcast, he could add interest and competence to both.
  5. During his rookie year, did Skinner play on a line with Eric Cole?
  6. Regarding “classless” comment - 3/14/05 Jeff O’Neill arrested for DDI and disorderly conduct. Check the story for other details.
  7. Season ticket holders may have been expecting a decrease in ticket prices as an expression of their loyalty, instead they will be given a new general manager.
  8. More on Darling and who may share responsibility for his performance. Form "THE GOALIE COACH TEN COMMANDMENTS" ENCOURAGE THE GOALIE TO EXPAND THEIR COMFORT ZONE The goalie's job is no longer to just save pucks from going into the net. They must be offensive players as well; stick handling, passing, shooting, playing the puck. Goals will be scored against them when they attempt these new moves during the game. It is your job as the coach to encourage them and boost their moral when a goal is scored against them expanding their comfort zone. The future pluses far out weight the negatives. So get your goalies active in game play. Darling has been asked (told) to do several things he did not do in Chicago. The most obvious is his play behind the net. Less obvious is his play in front of the net with increased emphasis on stick work. There has been a discussion on why he was left in so long against Toronto - a message for him or a message for the rest of the team. Equally - or more likely - it was a message for Mike Bales.
  9. At what point can the success / failure of Ward / Darling be a function of their goaltender coach?
  10. Others have commented on the fact that the current GF-GA is now in positive territory. What should also be noted that in the entire history of the franchise since moving to North Carolina, only four teams have finished the season with a positive GF-GA. It could be stated - using this statistic alone - that the current team is tied for the 4th best in their two decade presence in NC.
  11. The 2002 - 2003 Hurricanes finished the season with 61 points, 171 goals for, 240 goals against, GF-GA -69. Based on the play to date, the projected numbers for an 82 game season are 68 points, 171 goals for, 239 goals against, GF-GA -68. If not for the 3 points games, the Hurricanes would be looking forward to a 58 point season and with that the worst recornd since coming to North Carolina.
  12. At the beginning of the year I made my own predictions - simply based on the results of the past ten years and using linear regression analysis. The predictions for 2015-2016 were: points 69; goals for 184; goals against 235. Based on the first 21 games, the projections for the complete season are: points 70; goals for 164; goals against 238. Thus, it is no surprise we are where we are. There has been a linear and predictable decrease in offensive production over a decade - with little chance that it will increase with the current roster.
  13. Thoughts on the General Manager: YEAR POINTS GOALS (FOR - AGAINST) 1997 – 1998 74 200 - 219 1998 – 1999 86 210 - 202 1999 – 2000 84 217 - 216 2000 – 2001 88 212 - 225 2001 – 2002 91 217 - 217 2002 – 2003 61 271 - 240 2003 – 2004 76 272 - 209 2004 – 2005* 2005 – 2006 112 294 - 260 2006 – 2007 88 241 - 253 2007 – 2008 92 252 - 249 2008 – 2009 97 239 - 226 2009 – 2010 80 230 - 256 2010 – 2011 91 236 - 239 2011 – 2012 82 213 - 243 2012 – 2013** 72(42) 219(128) – 273(160) *Lockout year **Values adjusted for an 82 game season For the 15 years listed above, the mean yearly point total ± the standard deviation (SD) is 84.9 ± 11.9. While considerable emphasis is placed on the post-lockout, Stanley Cup season of 2005-2006, the 112 point total gained in that year is 2 SD above the mean and is thus a statistical outlier (an observation that lies outside the overall pattern of a distribution) and as a result should not be considered as representative of the entire record. It is important to note that when the total of 42 points from the past season of 48 games is extended to a full season of 82 games, the resulting 72 points is not an outlier but rather falls within the overall pattern of distribution. In fact, on the basis of the deteriorating record between 2005 and 2012, linear regression analysis predicted that for the 2012 to 2013 season a point total of only 78 points. Comparing the goals for versus goals against (excluding the outlier year 2005 – 2006) shows 216.4 ± 23.8 goals per year for and 233.4 ± 20.3 goals per year against. This is a statistically significant difference of -17.0 ± 24.0 goals per year (p <0.05 with a paired t-test). Comparing the goals for and goals against for the 7 years prior to and following the 2005 – 2006 season demonstrates a highly significant increase in goals for 199.9 ± 20.2 (1997-2004) versus 232.9 ± 13.4 (2006-2013). However this is matched by a similarly statistically significant increase in goals against (218.3 ± 12.1 versus 248.4 ± 14.7) so that there is little change in the difference between goals for and goals against. Several statements can be made. Since the Stanley Cup year of 2005-2006, there has been a gradual and progressive decline in the performance of the team. This has occurred despite a number of changes in the composition of the team along with three different coaches and coaching staffs. The only constant has been the General Manager whose overall performance has been poor. His statement at the beginning of the year that the Hurricanes were a Stanley Cup contender was an illusion. His most recent statement that the defense need to be improved is years late. In almost any other organization, such a record would not be tolerated. The General Manager has had more than enough time to place on ice a consistently competitive team. This he has not done and it is likely that without a change in this office, the Hurricanes will continue to be a sub 90 point per year team. With that is mind, the replacement of the General Manager should be the number one priority and should occur prior to this year’s draft and free agency season.
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