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remkin

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  1. If anyone is interested in my case for Oshie, I put it in the long post area: scroll to bottom of page: http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/23943-house-of-tolstoy-place-for-long-posts/
  2. Why I'd sign TJ Oshie: The player. One of the fears is that we'd be paying a guy for a banner year. To be sure. And that IS a fair argument, and probably true to some extent. While it is possible that things get just crazy on Oshie (then I would back out), mostly things get "crazy". By that I mean maybe $1 million/year more than anyone thought. TJ Oshie isn't going to get Patrick Kane money. He will be overpaid. But so what? You're underpaying in player assets. As in zero. Another way of putting that: things will get "crazy" but not truly insane. But even if Oshie falls back from last year's high-elite numbers, he is pretty much a lock for 20 goals. Even if he is an overpaid piece, he will help us win for at least 4-5 years. Last year was nuts. He was on a 40 goal pace, and right there in terms of goals and points per game with Backstrom and Ovechkin. But he will not be paid like Ovechkin. Still, this he did. It is a possible upside. Can he do that without Ovechkin and Backstrom? Who knows? We've got some talent too. Probably not 40 goals (his shooting % was unreal last year, that won't continue), but 25 gets it done. Also, shootout goals aren't counted, and goodness knows we could use a few of those. Finally, the eyeball test. Oshie is a big, slick-skilled winger, not afraid of contact. He looks the part of a 60 point guy. In terms of assets, we get without giving. Yes, we pick up a contract (we of the most el cheapo team north of Arizona). Yes, a 36 year old TJ Oshie making $7 million/year will be a bad contract, probably. But we get at least 4-5 good years too probably. So front load the contract. Whatever. I know that this is a tough one to contemplate because it goes against everything we've seen from Francis so far. We are still smarting from the last UFA contracsky from hell. But as much as you have to learn from past mistakes, you also have to be able to avoid always fighting the last battle instead of the current one. And not avoid seeing the actual mistake that was made. The mistake with Semin, was that he was actually the guy people warned about. He was the lazy Russian coach-killer. If Semin had lived up to his potential, that deal would have made sense. Semin was the main problem. He made that a disaster. It is true that there is some risk that just giving a guy that big deal leads to lack of motivation. But that's only one possibility. For ever Semin there's a Carter, or Hossa. Plus, that's also true when you give your own guy a huge deal, cough Eric Staal cough. But the main thing I see is the value of not giving up a piece of our player pie. So long as Oshie's NTC is limited, we have so many assets that if we play our cards right, and Oshie doesn't pan out, we can move him along with assets if we have to. That mitigates the long term risk, while keeping the upside. Further, the moves that Francis can and will make with Fleury, Bean, Kuokkanen, Roy, Gauthier and way more guys coming into play will allow him to flex the team as needed. If Oshie's great, but Lindholm faulters, if Hanifin never quite becomes elite, but is very good as is Fleury, there are moves to be made by having all of those other guys in the fold. Further, signing Oshie now, thus not losing a Hanifin, Bean or Fleury now, lets those guys develop into the kind of player that bring back a top center. Trading any of those D men now necessitates getting low value on those prospects that Francis holds most dear. The cost of Oshie is at least partially offset by letting our prospects become much more valuable trade chips. What about signing our up and comers? They will need to be paid at some point. Well this could be it's own Tolstoy post. I have glanced at the cap numbers and there are a lot of moving parts. This year we could sign anyone x 2. Next year would be a pinch. Next year we need to sign Hanifin, Pesce, Slavin and Lindholm mainly. (Nordstrom ant TVR also, but if they get too pricey, we may have yutes to slot, so probably not huge cap issue). That is a lot to do, but they are all RFA's still and only Lindy has arbitration rights. Also, $3.0 million plus $2.7 million can be converted to say $1.5 as we re-adjust our back up goalies from Cam/Lack to "properly paid back up guy", and Wiz's $1 million buyout is gone. My back of the envelope calculations come to us having $25 million to sign Oshie, and sign Hanifin, Slavin, Pesce, Lindholm. Take Oshie's $7 million out. That leaves $18 million, but add back in what those guys currently make and we have 24-25 million to sign them AFTER Oshie. If Lindy breaks out, he will get paid. Slavin next. I see Hanifin and Pesce getting a bit less this go around. If Lindholm gets $5.5 million, Slavin $4.5 million - $5 million, Pesce $3.0 million, and Hanifin $3.0 million, that still leaves $7 million. The following year we have to deal with Aho (RFA), TT (RFA), and Skinner (UFA). But that's two full seasons away. Even then, remember, Skinner already makes $5.7 million, and Aho and TT are still both RFA's. Even if we bump Skinner to $7 million, that only costs 1.3 million in cap space. That could leaver around $5.7 million to bridge Aho, and TT assuming the cap doesn't go up. If the cap goes up, we can easily get them both in. In year three, 2020, Faulk's deal comes up. But that's after 3 full seasons and keeping everyone except Stempniak. Trying to go out past that is nuts because there are entry level yutes coming up, that could change everything for the better. We could almost certainly trade one contract away if we had to, and use entry level talent. If we keep this year's pick, young Suzuki will be contributing by then. But mainly, signing Oshie means we win now. We stop the death spiral. We sell tickets. We make the playoffs and get even more buzz. I'd rather let whoever buys this team and keeps them here worry about 36 year old Oshie 6 years from now, than watch Gauthier and Roy putting up points in Quebec 3 years from now. In terms of players, we get without giving. Yes, we pick up a contract (we of the most el cheapo team north of Arizona). Yes, a 36 year old TJ Oshie making $7 million/year will be a bad contract, probably. But we get at least 5 good years probably. So front load the contract. Whatever. I know that this is s tough one to contemplate because it goes against everything we've seen from Francis so far. We are still stung by the last UFA contracsky from hell, and over paying Ward/Eric. But as much as you have to learn from past mistakes, you also have to be able to avoid seeing the actual mistake. The mistake with Semin, was that he was actually the guy people warned about. He was the lazy Russian coach-killer. If Semin had lived up to his potential, that deal would have made sense. Semin was the main problem. Now one could say that just giving a guy that big deal leads to lack of motivation. But that's only one possibility. For ever Semin there's a Carter, or Hossa. But the main thing, I don't think people consider is the value of not giving up a piece of our player pie. So long as Oshie's NTC is limited, we have so many assets that if we play our cards right, and Oshie doesn't pan out, we can move him along with assets if we have to. Further, the moves that Francis can and will make with Fleury, Bean, Kuokkanen, Roy, Gauthier and way more guys coming into play will allow him to flex the team as needed. If Oshie's great, but Linholm faulters, if Hanifin never quite becomes elite, but is very good as is Fleury, there are moves to be made by having those guys still. Further, signing Oshie now, thus not losing a Hanifin, Bean or Fleury now, lets those guys develop into the kind of player that bring back a top center. Trading any of those D men now necessitates getting low value on those prospects that Francis holds most dear. The cost of Oshie is at least partially offset by letting our prospects become much more valuable trade chips. But mainly, signing Oshie means we win now. We stop the death spiral. We sell tickets. We make the playoffs and get even more buzz. I'd rather let whoever buys this team and keeps them here worry about 36 year old Oshie 6 years from now, than watch Gauthier and Roy putting up points in Quebec. Is this un Francis-like? In terms of picking up a contract that could hurt in the long run? Yes. In terms of his past quotes about being afraid of the "crazy time" of early UFA bidding? Yes. BUT in terms of not giving up anyone from his brood of closely held prospects? Oh that is very Francis-like. If Francis makes the splash though a trade, he has to lose a major prospect and picks, or a major current player. And just as Francis has never taken on a huge UFA contract, he has also never traded away a big time player or prospect, or a first round pick. So, either way, he has to make a move outside of his historic comfort zone. Do we sign Oshie? Highly unlikely. Not only might Francis not agree with any of this, but even if he did, he'd still would have to actually win the Oshie race. Not a good bet. Should we though? Oh yes.
  3. The idea that Francis isn't open to trading Murphy or Dahlbeck if the right deal came along makes no sense. Again, 7 is a nutty number of D men off the table. Top 4, maybe 5 when return is factored in. My guess if the 7 number is not just a mistake, is that there is zero interest in Murphy and he and Dahlbeck, etc won't bring any needed return. Assuming that TVR is a keeper, which I think he is, then Francis has make all of the moves he needs to, except the big one. On TVR, I'd just say that despite all of the flowery talk of McKeown being NHL ready last year, his year in Charlotte did not create some Aho-like sense of predetermination for him on this year's opening roster. If anything Fleury finished strong, and was the high first rounder and needs to at the very least get his trade value up. I still think we go TVR - Dahlbeck as the 5-6, but Fleury needs to get some time sooner than later, and might beat Dahlbeck out. Keeping on that theme, what other moves do we need besides the big one? Francis managed to keep BOTH Stempniak and Nordstrom. Assuming he finds his big guy and doesn't lose a roster player, we really don't need anyone else anywhere. We could try for another journeyman 4th line center, I guess, but I still think we go with Wallmark. McClement is gone. That I can tell you. It's all down the getting that top forward. The rest is there. We have prospects, and picks, including our first rounder, out the ying yang. But can we compile enough of them to get without giving? I have no idea. Not so far though. And that's part of why I like Oshie.
  4. I would have to say NOOOOOO! Lindholm is going to bust completely out this year. I wouldn't trade him for anything shy of a Draistaitl level guy.
  5. I've been mostly away for a couple of days, but yeah, top 7 D being off the table makes no sense. The only way we do that and get what we need: TJ Oshie, which would still make me go sign up for 3 years of season tickets, but really can't be the plan. Top 4 makes sense. No to trading Slavin/Pesce/Faulk/Hanifin but anyone else that plays D should be very much in play. I'm thinking that has to be a typo.
  6. If Francis manages to use this expansion stuff to keep Stempniak and firm up our bottom pair defense and still manages to get that forward wow. One obvious way to do it would be to sign TJ Oshie but of course nobody thinks were in that ballpark. But what if we were? Think of how good would be. Anyways I hope Francis is able to package up a bunch of prospects and pics and get that guy to keep everything he's created to this point.
  7. Wow. Could that if you want any better?
  8. There are always other teams looking for offense. Vegas does throw a wrench in, but it may also come down to their plan. I'm just projecting what I would do onto what it seems that they are trying to do, namely use a 4-5 year ramp to building a really competitive team long term, rather than getting a jump early then fading fast. Thus, they hold onto those draft picks this year (unless they try to trade up, which is also easier for them than us because the place to get to is the top 2, and they are closer to it already). They use some of those picks and maybe flip some, but probably later. In that case, they may not really be looking to exactly the same spot as us. Are they interested in Matt Duchene? Maybe, but I doubt it. Two years left. Losing culture. Landeskog? No. Oshie? No. So, I'm sure there is some overlap, maybe a Galchenyk but I think there is a lot of non overlap too. Still, most of the teams in the bottom 1/3 in scoring are looking to upgrade....every year. This is the year for us. Francis has positioned, and made masterful building-type moves. Now, if he can make the big one, we win. Personally, I am very uncomfortable going into this year without that upgrade, especially if we lose Stempniak, and clearly, neither is Peters. Fixing goalie was only half of the problem. Finish the job.
  9. That, I can't argue with!
  10. So Vegas turns in it's team in about 10 minutes. Of course the big reveal is at 8 PM, but I suspect some leaks about who made deals might come out before then. Everyone seems to think they take Stempniak, so I guess that's the odds on favorite, but I would not be shocked if they take Nordstrom and keep him as a long term piece. I still think McPhee is trying to accumulate as many draft picks as possible, and sure he could flip Stempniak, but I just wonder if we might be the exception to the rule.
  11. Differing opinions make this interesting. No one really knows what the effect might be, and you guys could be right. We are a very young team. I just think it diminishes the "player-coach" idea, when the player part drops below a certain level, especially on a young, fast, team. It just seems that for Doan and Inginla, their playing days are over and they are trying to keep playing on legacy. I just don't see that working with this situation. But, hey, that is just one fan's opinion. You make very good points and could well be right.
  12. Just a guess, but the third jerseys are coming back next year, and I bet the flags are more prominent on that one and these are more muted so they are different and we all go buy both of them.
  13. So the flags ARE there. I like them. Like Citizen Quin, like the black. Carry the black onto the gloves too. Considering how little I expected them to change, I think they upgraded nicely. Still no capes though. You can already buy one too. https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/fans/adidas-uniforms
  14. This is what we will have to see about. Where is PK and the budget this year? In the more distant past we called it El Cheapo. But more recently we call it smart budgeting and planning ahead, and avoiding bad contracts. PK, in the last couple of years has gotten a bit of a pass, as we all know we overpaid some guys a lot in the past, and as we retool using the draft and entry level players and prospects. Everyone has their own thoughts on this, but my thoughts are this. This is the year to open the checkbook to get that one guy. The guy who can be that final piece. Some will disagree pointing to all of the bad contracts, but not all large contracts are bad ones, and almost no el cheapo teams go anywhere. At some point you have to step up Are we one piece away? Well, yes. One major piece anyways. Sure, we could use a 4th liner, and a 5th D man, and a better back up goalie, but we are indeed one major piece away now that starting goalie is fixed. We may not win the cup next year, this group plus THE guy have to mature, and maybe even a guy from the system adds in before the final product, but I think that this team plus a 65 point guy, makes the playoffs and could surprise. SO GO GET THAT PIECE. I put it down before, but PK approved $7 million/year for the Russian Tank Job. Some would say, he better not do it again. But that is the wrong lesson. That's falling off the horse and not getting back on to race, but walking around the track muttering about not riding horses anymore, but trying to win by walking. If we get a guy who can consistently put up 25 goals and 65 points, we have all the rest of the major pieces in place right now (especially if we somehow keep Stempniak). Yes, I'm counting on steps forward from Lindholm, Aho, TT, Rask and Hanifin among others, but I think they will take steps forward. Add them to J Staal, Skinner, Slavin, Pesce, Faulk and Darling and maybe Stempniak. And you've got a very solid base. Then bring in THAT guy? When someone gets consented for a treatment they have to be presented the alternatives to make a truly informed consent. One alternative is to do essentially nothing. You may not want to spend the money for that expensive appendectomy, but the alternative is way worse. What is the alternative to not signing the right guy, the guy we all know we need, due to money? El Cheapo and We Like Our Group (same thing). There is a price to pay for that too. The price may be pretty steep. I think the price is an empty stadium, and maybe worse. If PK cheaps out, and we miss out, and don't get that guy. Then we are betting entirely on improvement from multiple guys, AND that they all stay pretty healthy. Even with better goaltending we did not score enough goals, and we were pretty healthy too. If we do that (go el cheapo) AND THEN start slow or miss out again? Fans will be done with this team. Not everyone, but too many. At least if they make the move. Make the splash and miss, at least the fans will see that they tried. But more likely, they'll succeed and get in. If we go into this season with just minor tweaks, and lose Stemper's points? I'll walk over and join BD58 on the ledge. But I don't see that happening. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
  15. Doan and Iginla were both tremendous leaders in their prime. But there is a name for strong leaders who really can't do it on the ice anymore: coach. Another of hockey's uniformly respected top leaders was one Rod Brind"Amour. At the end, as his game slipped away but he was still out there with the "C", things got pretty bad. The team seemed to have tuned him out. Eventually he had to give that C over to Eric Staal while still playing. I think the idea of one of those guys coming in and providing leadership may not work out the way we might imagine it. I'm not sure you can come into to a room full of guys that are the future of the team, and take it over when you are producing Jack and Squat on the ice. I just don't know that it would work at all, let alone well. And yes, they could be a veteran voice in the room, but again, if they can't do it on the ice, is that worth it? I am purely guessing here, but while it seems a bit odd that the team couldn't ID their Captain, it didn't seem to be that huge of an issue last year. My way way distant listening to people somewhat near the situation suggests that even though we didn't have one guy, the room was pretty decent. I do wonder if the whole thing last year was to give Jordan a year to let the Eric effect fade before he takes over. That is another rank guess. But if Jordan is the heir apparent, some fans, media, and maybe even teammates might not have been keen on the thing being just handed to another Staal. Taking a year off could now allow the team to play up his leadership. But even if not, there has been mention of Skinner as a leader last year too. I like the idea of bringing in a gritty veteran winger, but one who is closer to 30 than 40, and can still produce points. Then again, we've been wanting a gritty winger who can produce at least good third line numbers for long time. Anyway, I really see us putting together a top 9 that can score, and a 4th line that at least might score. Personally I'm betting that Walmark is slotted for that 4th line center spot, but, as with the other stuff, this is just me guessing. A 4th line of PDG/Walmark/Zykov, or possibly we go find another Stahlberg type veteran. We protected both PDG and McGinn, so I have to think they slot somewhere. But somehow I find it hard to imagine Doan or Iginla in here personally. Just my take.