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gocanes0506

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Posts posted by gocanes0506


  1. 3 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:
    I disagree.  The only thing Dundon has done so far is benefit from good timing.  He is Colorado to Karmanos' Quebec.
     
    We are 8-10 games better this year because of what Ron Francis did in years past.  We see what that got him.  Plus winning 2nd place (Svechnikov) in the 2018 lottery.
    Not much done internally, though. It's been my experience that you don't accomplish much doing things by committee.
     
    Dundon had the chance to use his money in a positive way, but he blew it with a protracted contract negotiation that forced Sebastian Aho to sign an offer sheet with Montreal in order to get an extension.  Now Aho can - and probably will - leave in 5 ... no ... 4 years now.  It's like using clorox to clean the Mona Lisa.  It's not going to end up good.
     
    The potential championship window that hasn't really opened yet now may be closed in four short years.  After all, Aho is as important to this team as Crosby is to Pittsburgh and Ovechkin is to Washington.   But, like John Forslund, why should he stay?  Forslund didn't want to go off into the sunset, either.  (The beautiful, yet choking Saharan-dust cloud sunsets notwithstanding).
     
    You want your team owner to be a billionaire, not a multi-millionaire, but I'm not sure if this guy is the right billionaire.

    I agree to a point. TD did come in a good time with Svech, Necas, Aho, Turbo, Slavin, and Pesce but...

     A trade of Nino & Rask

    Signing of Mrazek and claiming McE while burying Darling 

    Signing Aho with all that signing bonus money 

    Trading for Haula

    Going to 89 million in salary this season which included adding depth like Dzingel, Gardiner, Skjei, and Vatanen.


    i dont see any of that with PK and Francis

     

    I have little faith that we would afford Dougie with PK

     


  2. Recap TD’s ownership:

     

    Pushed out Francis. Response: “OMG how could we, he is our franchise guy and moving the org forward. “. Yet we made the playoffs.

    Pushed out Kaiton. Response: “OMG how could we, he is our voice and you can’t have Canes without Kaiton.  TD is so cheap“. Yet we preserved and are doing well as an organization

    Wouldnt re-sign Ferland mid season for what he wanted. Response: “OMG how could we, I am not eating until Ferland is signed. He is the exact forward we need, TD is so cheap. “ It turned out to be a great decision.

    Now he won’t give Forslund a different deal than 17 other employees. Response: “OMG how could we, he is our voice and you can’t have Canes without Forslund.  TD is so cheap“.

     

    Im seeing a trend. Yet the team on the ice is 8-10 wins better. He just dropped 89 million on salaries this season plus Aho and Reimer’s signing bonuses for 20-21.  We are getting a practice ice facility that may attract FAs. And so on.  

    • Like 2

  3. 1 hour ago, raleighcaniac said:

    Fair enough however I remain firmly not in Don’s corner. Bottom echelon of GMs imo. 

    He / the team have gad some genius moves,  good moves and some bad ones
    Genius: Nino trade, Darling trade, 2019 draft

    Good: Original Mrazek signing, Marleau trade. CdH signing and the trade. Haula trade
    Middle of the road: Hamilton trade, Trocheck trade (potential to get better), Skjei trade (could get better)
    Bad: Gardiner deal, Not signing Lehner, not trading Ferland 

     

    this off-season brought down what was a really good stretch for them. We’ll see how this off-season goes before I say he is bottom tier.


  4. 1 hour ago, LakeLivin said:

     

    I don't know if Wadell's contract was up (or if he was asked to renegotiate), but isn't he earning a lot less than most NHL GMs? Wasn't that the big controversy when TD put him in that role instead of "paying for a real GM"?

    No Waddell signed a multi year deal. TD originally didn’t understand why he couldn’t just keep paying him like a normal employee vice being under a contract.

    • Like 1

  5. FA frenzy will start November 1st, 2020

     

    Right now we have 9.149 million in space.  At the same time we will have to put some 3.5 million aside for performance bonuses from this season. So we have about 5.6 million in space to improve the team.  That is if we dont save any space for the 20-21 performance bonuses from Svech and Necas.  Both of them are likely to max out at 3.187 million, total.  

     

     


  6. 1 hour ago, Iron Lion said:

    Absolute idiocy if they don't resign Forslund, guy is literally best in biz, voice of the team, amazing community presence and he's going to let him go when it certainly seems he would like to stay. Have to say, I want to like Dundon but between this and the Checkers seems like a very penny-wise pound foolish guy. He's losing me.

    I get it but John isn’t cheap.  He has national money in his corner.  If Tom is making provisions based on the amount of games played next year, it would be in John’s best interest to get more money on the national scene. Based on Waddell’s case that is exactly what it sounds like. Probably would be similar money for less games and less travel.

    • Like 1

  7. According to Friedman we'll more than likely see the following on the next CBA:

    20-21 & 21-22 seasons 81.5m cap

    22-23: 82.5m cap

    limit on signing bonuses and variations in salary on a player from year to year in their contract.

    cap on escrow, starting at 20 next season and going down

    language for opt-out of return to play

     


  8. 6 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

    I thought they have the place card drawing immediately after the qualifying round so the wait won't be so long.   I do think several teams - like Montreal

    and Chicago - will tank on purpose because they weren't supposed to be there anyways.  The Canes won't tank, but the Rangers series should be a

    good one.  Whoever gets hot can go a long way.

    The 2nd lottery is shortly after the play-in round is over.


  9. 1 hour ago, remkin said:

    Its funny because on XM earlier they were talking like Vegas was back in with Toronto. I'm guessing they like the idea of basically commandeering one huge hotel, but then with Vegas opening up, maybe the risk felt too high?

     

    I thought Edmonton had very few cases. Not sure about Toronto. 

    The Eastern teams are saying....CMON MAN, Edmonton.  At the same time less cases and more likely to control the bubble.

     

    The West will like Toronto but more people = more risk


  10. 38 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

    To me the most informative thing about that article is that Reimer was one of the best in the league at low and medium danger chances but one of the worst against high danger chances this season. Seems like the degree of danger is mostly on the skaters, not the goalie (exception being juicy rebounds). it would be interesting to see the proportion of high danger chances the Canes give up as compared to the rest of the league.  Given our defense and the team mentality I suspect we give up fewer high danger chances. If it comes down to the two, that would seem to be an argument for Reimer over Mrazek going forward. Hopefully as a backup or at most a 1B. :crossfingers: 

     

    edit: I wonder if the type chances we give up might help explain why McElhenney was so successful with us last year?

    according to naturalstattrick, we were 17th in most HDCA (high danger chances allowed) or 14th fewest surrendered.  We had 624. The best in the league, Minnesota, had 478.  If the season was evened out we more than likely would have been higher on the list as everyone else around us in the HDCA standings played more games than us.


  11. 2 minutes ago, LakeLivin said:

    Interesting article from https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/breaking-down-every-goalie-controversy-in-the-24-team-playoff-tournament

     

    "Reimer wasn’t a world beater, but he was decisively better than Mrazek. Reimer’s consistency was key. He held an SP of at least .912 in every month except his injury-shortened February. He had the closest average goal distance in the league, too. He led the league in medium-danger SP and ranked near the top in low-danger, but he had one of the worst high-danger SPs. In other words, it took quality chances to beat him. He didn’t stand on his head, but he didn’t lose games for Carolina."

    Reimer was better than Mrazek.  That is where we are right now. 

    Mrazek= inconsistent goalie that can be top 10 when on but, bottom 20 when not.  Who do you get?

    Reimer= consistent middle tier goalie.  

     

    Reimer was 10 spots better in GSAA than Mrazek this season. GSAA, Goals saved above average, is Goals-Shots x league average save percentage. Basically anything above 0 means you are an above average goalie.  Reimer was 31st.  The guy we shied away from in the off-season (Lehner) was 7th despite how bad Chicago's defense is.  

    Reimer had a better Quality Start % at .625 versus Mrazek's .500.  

    Despite Mrazek having 15 more starts he only had one more really bad start (RBS) than Reimer (6). 

    Reimer had a higher sv % by .009 and saw on average 1 more shot per game.

    The GAA were similar in 2.66 (R) and 2.69 (M)

     

     


  12. If we happen to fall in the 12-15 range it will still be tough to take Askarov there (or trade up).  We are slowly encroaching our window of a crazy competitive team. Askarov will more than likely not be ready until the end where Pesce and maybe even Slavin are UFAs. A forward at that pick could be ready to contribute in 2 seasons, maybe 3 to add to the depth of the team.  Reasonable timelines would say Askarov would be a backup 4-5 years from the draft and maybe a starter in year 5.  Sure he could be a Ward / Price and be on the ice 2-3 years post draft as there is always exceptions to the rule.  You cant plan for the exception to the rule.  At the same time, those 2 that were on the ice earlier have tailed off earlier too.  Cam and Carey both started tailing off stronger that the models suggest in their early 30s. The tailing off maybe due to playing 60+ games a season so, we could prevent that with a capable backup.  

     

    If we had a 2nd first round, I could say taking Askarov makes sense because we would have a forward waiting in the mists to help sooner. 


  13. 19 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

     So the question is  who do the Canes give up  in order to achieve that goal and to which team ?    

    I can’t see Minnesota or Chicago very interested in dealing with us knowing we would be targeting Askarov.

     

    NJ may be our best bet but it would take a roster player or two to get to 11.  Maybe we could target Detroit all the way at 4. Yzerman may want to be better on the ice sense he missed on 1OA. It would take a haul though. Not many teams will be tanking for 1OA next season. 


    Its probably out of the realm trying to go from 19 to 10 or so to get there. We are in win now mode and Askarov won’t be on NHL ice for 4 years.


  14. Askarov isn’t the first pick by a mile.

     

    If we get the first pick you take Laf, sell off Dzingel and Nino, and sign Lehner.

     

    or

     

    you get a stinking haul for number one. Target NJ or Ottawa or who ever else will give you a good package. Keep trading down until you get a pick between 7-11 and take Askarov.  Laf is so good that may not still be worth it.


  15. 1 hour ago, Canesfanforever said:

    Oh Dude ,  I would suggest  if the canes did win the pick to just use it on Askarov .   That would set up the canes for  a  good long decade and solve the goalie issues  going  forward .  Adding  Lafy  would be sick  and having Brind'Amour possibly  mold  him  into a center would be killer .  But  the canes need a  stud goalie  more than  a hot   scorer . 

    Askarov is very good but goalies are the most risky of the 1st rounders.  If people are wary of Lapierre then Askarov should really concern.

     

    It is a difficult trigger to pull.


  16. 12 minutes ago, Canesfanforever said:

    So , in the case that  it's toronto's or  carolinas  pick   given out of happenstance ?   then the pick would be protected regardless .   so the rangers would not get either one winning pick    until next year  .   So the end result is if  it was the toronto pick   then  that would go to toronto but carolinas pick would go to the rangers ?

     

    This is why i dont like trading that 1st for Brady more and more  !

    I want Toronto to lose and we get the pick. The Canes make it at least one round win, preferably at least two. Build up the confidence of this young team and push them to consistent success. Also it will good for the fan base to make a good playoff appearance.

     

    Laf would be great but we need sustained success for the fans.


  17. Absolutely stupid that any of the top 10 teams even have a chance at the number one overall.

     

    Play-in losers win battle for the 1st overall.  Dang NHL doing this on purpose.

     

    one positive there was only one play in loser in the top 3. So we didn’t give up a top 3 pick for Skjei 


  18. Flat cap will not be in place for 2 more seasons but 3.

     

    we’re are going to have to use serious depth to fit Necas, Svech, and Dougie in our cap. Either that or we risk huge contracts from Necas and Svech by signing them to bridge deals.


  19. Our positive test numbers have grown exponentially since this all started. Now if I ended here we could start pandemonium. Tbh a bunch of news reports leave it at that.  “Positive tests continue to rise” as an example. Scaring people.

     

    But.....

     

    Our testing has grown at a larger rate.  Our  positive tests percentages were going well down until about June 10th (source John Hopkins). They have risen about 2 percentage points to 5% over the last 2 weeks. That includes yesterday with a ridiculous 20+% positive day.  We’ve had a few of no positive days.
     

    We are at 9% positive tests overall since we started (CDC).

     

    The data says A. A lot more people had it before testing was readily available. 
    B. People should tighten up right now and not allow the trend to go up. Not shutdown or seclude tighten up but be smarter than folks are right now, for grandma and grandpa’s sake. 


    It also brings up some questions:

    A. Is 2 weeks really all the time it takes to work itself out or does it remain dormant for a while in people?

    B. Is it really that much of a concern to most folks? The numbers suggest a lot more people had than they knew about and probably still don’t with some folks.

     

    without answers to some of these questions, opinions will vary.


  20. 6 hours ago, MidnightAngel said:

    Gentlemen, you realize that you can't talk about goalies or secondary scoring or anything else until you deal with the fact that the Canes are

    up against the cap ceiling with only 17 players currently signed.  When you add in the $2.33m for the final years of the Semin buyout and

    $3,187,500 in performance bonuses for Svechnikov and Necas (the Williams bonuses aren't complete yet), that puts the total at $75,538m.

     

    When you project Foegele at 2.2 - 2.5m because he's better than McGinn and Fleury should be getting at least 1.75m.  Both of these guys

    have arbitration rights.  I'm not saying they'll file, but one likely will.  You can try and save money elsewhere, but moving a couple of bad contracts

    (Niederreiter, Gardiner and Staal) will be hard.

     

    If the cap ceiling artificially stays at 81.5m, that leaves about two million left to sign four fringe players to fill out a 23-man roster.   Obviously,

    the goal is more than "go with what we got" and "add some fringe players".  But that's the way things are right now.  Plus, in summer of 20-21

    has Svechnikov coming off of his entry-level contract and a Hamilton extension kicking in.  Svechnikov figures to skip a bridge deal and get

    about $7.5m per year.  That happens to add up to what Dzingel, McGinn and Martinook make but swapping three salaries for one destroys

    the experienced depth at forward.

    The Canes won’t need to sign fringe players to fill the 23 man roster. We’ll have AHLers for that.

     

    Any improvement in the net will require a subsequent trade of one of ours. Also we should see a subtraction on one, maybe 2, LHDs and probably Dzingel as well (although Nino would be preferred).

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