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Everything posted by MidnightAngel

  1. In a short series probably the two most important things would be to have a hot goalie and outstanding special teams play. I don't hold out much hope for the goaltending part of it. I'm still expecting Mrazek to mimic his short stay in Philadelphia. The power play (even if it doesn't include Hamilton) and the penalty kill should be enough to get past the Rangers -- in 4. Trocheck just needed some time to get over that broken leg that sidelined his career a little bit. Maybe it'll happen now.
  2. Sorry, didn't mean to sound too negative. After all, I have been in favor of a lot of the goalie moves and most of those haven't worked out. My point was that you can't really make a mistake with money when you're up against the cap ceiling. It's going to be like this for the next 10-15 years. Which is good. You're right - he did improve. And he will probably have a great playoff performance and make my whole post completely unnecessary. The problem is we will already likely lose Edmundson, TVR, and Vatanen to unrestricted free agency. That's a lot of depth, but we really can't afford them and have to let them walk. You have to prioritize re-signing Fleury and Foegele. That leaves us about $1.0M under the cap with only 20 players signed (when you elevate Geekie who will probably replace Justin Williams in the lineup). That's not gonna work when the goal in to improve the team from year to year. So if you can't move a Niederreiter or a Gardiner (because everyone else is doing pretty well) - you are stuck - and could cause everything to get pushed back a year. And that would be unacceptable. But you could do a buyout. There's dead money later but it might end up being the best option. Because that would free up money to bring in some upgrades at a couple of different positions. Fortunately, the new CBA might help. Escrow for the players is high for the first 2 years in particular, then it drops over the life of the agreement. This could cause a flood of talented players who will hit the UFA and RFA markets to be looking for a shorter-term deal. If you were a free agent, would you sign a five-year deal now, which likely carries a lower AAV or a shorter deal with a talented team in hopes of cashing in when the cap starts to rise? Yeah, that trade got Paul Fenton fired, but when you're up against the cap $1.25M is a lot. It was obvious that Rask wasn't working out here and I would have encouraged him to return to Sweden and simply cut ties with him. Failing that, I would have bought him out - and it would cost less than what might happen now. Hopefully, Nino will bounce back, as will Gardiner, but if they don't ......
  3. Yeah, Rem. What I've been reading elsewhere though is that in order to dump a Gardiner, or a Dzingel it might take a sweetener that is too rich for Don Waddell's palate. Our cap management can't afford any mistakes like the Gardiner signing. You'll remember it was a late summer signing and that usually means either a small bucks "prove it" contract or less term. We didn't really get either with Gardiner. And that, to me, was a bit of a misstep. Hopefully, this is just a way hockey writers are wasting time until the training camps end and we play some real games. But still ...... For years, there have always been trades of high-priced veterans to rebuilding or emerging teams that were hoping they had reached cup contender status. We've all been caught reading the transaction column and saying "I can't believe so-and-so is still in the league -- and signed a big contract". The Canes, as an emerging team, may have stepped out of their comfort zone by making a bunch of fairly quick moves ... Marleau for a 1st wasn't one of them because it was just for one year, but Niederreiter still has two years left at $5.25m and the already mentioned questionable signing of Gardiner (3 years left at over $4m). All those moves and still no goalie that is a part of the core. Worse-case scenario is if things have to be pushed back another year assembling this team unless some kind of magical turnaround happens. We'll have to hope that some of these guys have a bounce back season while everyone else does as well as they have been and there aren't any injuries.
  4. I agree that you don't stand pat but it may be difficult moving forward. The flat salary cap means the price for cap ceiling teams (like the Canes are now) to dump fading or under-producing players just went through the roof. To get some flexibility might involve a buyout -- and that just adds problems or it's own in the future.
  5. LOL, I suppose no one will try to lose. Still, 12.5% is pretty huge when you consider that Ottawa had a 13.5% chance from the #2 slot and San Jose (To OTT) had 11.5% at number 3. For 8 pretty good teams to get a shot at the 1st overall pick .... there could be temptation.
  6. I'm pretty sure that all 24 teams in the two hub cities will play one exhibition game after training camp ends but before the qualifiers begin.
  7. I'll wait to see what Niederreiter does here in the playoffs but the regular season that ended in March was not a good one for him and neither was last years playoffs. Basically he had a couple of good regular season months last year. If he doesn't turn it around Paul Fenton may end up winning that deal. Waddell has made some good moves especially early on. Some were forced on him -- Hanifin and Lindholm, Fox, Faulk, and Skinner. And he did a great job getting good returns on the trades. Hamilton is the only remaining asset from the Calgary thing but what an asset he has turned out to be. As Rem mentioned, Lindholm has developed into a star in Calgary. That can probably be traced back to Dundon not wanting to pay him big bucks. Maybe a short bridge deal could have been worked out, then pay him when he becomes a star in Raleigh. You can't tell me that deal wouldn't look better today if it had been Hanifin for Hamilton. Straight up. Especially when we need more right shots and more scoring at RW. Some are no-brainers -- Marleau, Haula, and Reimer. A 1st-round pick for $833,000? Anybody would take that. Add over 6 million towards the cap? So what. We had the space. Waddell talking Dundon into a bunch of money at the deadline? No too difficult. His best job as a GM may be putting up with TD as an owner with his eccentricities. Make no mistake, though. Basically, except for Svechnikov and a couple of free agents, this is Francis' team. By the way, I'm not saying PK was a better owner than TD. But any new owner would have pushed for arena improvements and an outdoor game. And Gary Bettman would have accommodated him. Speaking of Bettman, for the first time in his 27 years of being commissioner, he is closing in on getting a labor agreement with the players without a stoppage of play. Not too shabby.
  8. I disagree. The only thing Dundon has done so far is benefit from good timing. He is Colorado to Karmanos' Quebec. We are 8-10 games better this year because of what Ron Francis did in years past. We see what that got him. Plus winning 2nd place (Svechnikov) in the 2018 lottery. Not much done internally, though. It's been my experience that you don't accomplish much doing things by committee. Dundon had the chance to use his money in a positive way, but he blew it with a protracted contract negotiation that forced Sebastian Aho to sign an offer sheet with Montreal in order to get an extension. Now Aho can - and probably will - leave in 5 ... no ... 4 years now. It's like using clorox to clean the Mona Lisa. It's not going to end up good. The potential championship window that hasn't really opened yet now may be closed in four short years. After all, Aho is as important to this team as Crosby is to Pittsburgh and Ovechkin is to Washington. But, like John Forslund, why should he stay? Forslund didn't want to go off into the sunset, either. (The beautiful, yet choking Saharan-dust cloud sunsets notwithstanding). You want your team owner to be a billionaire, not a multi-millionaire, but I'm not sure if this guy is the right billionaire.
  9. Things always look darkest before the dawn. Everything will be OK.
  10. I thought they have the place card drawing immediately after the qualifying round so the wait won't be so long. I do think several teams - like Montreal and Chicago - will tank on purpose because they weren't supposed to be there anyways. The Canes won't tank, but the Rangers series should be a good one. Whoever gets hot can go a long way.
  11. I'm happy that a non bottom-10 team will win the 1st overall pick because I think the whole process creates a buzz for people who aren't particularly interested in hockey. It's good for the game. And it teaches teams not to tank .. until you get to a play-in round. Then it's OK :)
  12. Gentlemen, you realize that you can't talk about goalies or secondary scoring or anything else until you deal with the fact that the Canes are up against the cap ceiling with only 17 players currently signed. When you add in the $2.33m for the final years of the Semin buyout and $3,187,500 in performance bonuses for Svechnikov and Necas (the Williams bonuses aren't complete yet), that puts the total at $75,538m. When you project Foegele at 2.2 - 2.5m because he's better than McGinn and Fleury should be getting at least 1.75m. Both of these guys have arbitration rights. I'm not saying they'll file, but one likely will. You can try and save money elsewhere, but moving a couple of bad contracts (Niederreiter, Gardiner and Staal) will be hard. If the cap ceiling artificially stays at 81.5m, that leaves about two million left to sign four fringe players to fill out a 23-man roster. Obviously, the goal is more than "go with what we got" and "add some fringe players". But that's the way things are right now. Plus, in summer of 20-21 has Svechnikov coming off of his entry-level contract and a Hamilton extension kicking in. Svechnikov figures to skip a bridge deal and get about $7.5m per year. That happens to add up to what Dzingel, McGinn and Martinook make but swapping three salaries for one destroys the experienced depth at forward.
  13. Well, if the 3 drawings for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd draft positions fall in the 24.5% range then Detroit would draft 4th, Ottawa 5th and 6th .. all the way up to Buffalo at 10th. Then - and this is where it gets interesting - when the qualifiers are played ... and let's say the Canes lose to the Rangers. The Canes would have a 12.5% chance at the 1st overall pick (Lafreniere). Of course, the other 7 losers from the qualifying round also have a 12.5% chance. Still, it's intriguing. Lose to the Rangers and you have about as good a chance at #1 as San Jose would have had.
  14. Yes, it will be on NBCSN at 8 pm. It could work out quite well for the Canes if they would lose to the Rangers. There's a chance for 1st overall. Team odds Since not every team played the same number of games, they have been ranked by points percentage at the time of the March NHL pause. 1. Red Wings – 18.5% 2. Senators – 13.5% 3. Senators – 11.5%* 4. Kings – 9.5% 5. Ducks – 8.5% 6. Devils – 7.5% 7. Sabres – 6.5% ================== 8. Team A – 6% 9. Team B – 5% 10. Team C – 3.5% 11. Team D – 3% 12. Team E – 2.5% 13. Team F – 2% 14. Team G – 1.5% 15. Team H – 1% *Originally owned by San Jose
  15. Not really, the commitment to winning should be 100%. Anything less than that and you shouldn't be buying a sports team. When Dundon initially wasn't paying fair market prices for some of the hockey staff that was sort of a red flag for me.
  16. Ah, I see. Thanks for the insight. I don't necessarily question Dundon's commitment to winning, but I do think his commitment may be tied to his investment on return ratio.
  17. Apparently a riot broke out in the middle of a pandemic :) Yes, I should have mentioned that it is on the News & Observer on-line. Good point about the flap a few years back over NC State blocking out too many dates and their "old south" approach.
  18. I wasn't concerned earlier, but I was surprised by some of the points made in the negotiation ... ▪ An agreement by the Hurricanes not to relocate the franchise during the current lease. ▪ The Hurricanes to receive lease termination rights on the lease as of June 30, 2024. ▪ A guarantee by the Hurricanes that their player payroll be above the midpoint of the NHL salary cap each year. ▪ An agreement the authority will pay 50 percent of the arena operating costs each year, up to $3.885 million. ▪ A reduction of the rent for fiscal 2020 of $1.78 million and no rent in following years. Why would the Centennial Authority be concerned with the Hurricanes spending past the salary cap midpoint, for example. I guess you want to get everything in writing. Still, it seemed strange. I can't imagine the Canes being concerned about NC State nuances. And as far as the lease itself ... for years, it seemed the Canes had what was considered a "good lease". I had read where it was considered a model lease because it was so good. Now, it turns out that was not the case ... “One of our goals was to get the Hurricanes to be in an average lease situation in the NHL,” authority chairman Tom McCormick said in an interview Thursday. “And they clearly had one of the worst leases in the league. Their cost-to-occupy and so forth were higher than they should be.” is that just because 20 years have passed? Or however long the past lease was in effect.
  19. Only a full NMC clause has to be protected. Staal is the only Cane that is required to be protected. You can see each teams list of eligible and exempt players on capfriendly.com by clicking on interactive, then Seattle Draft simulator.
  20. He hasn't played since he blocked a shot against Dallas on February 1st. The Devils put him on IR last Thursday, the 13th. So, I don't know. I would rather bring back a guy like Hainsey.
  21. As I said, the Pens and Canes are in completely different places. We strive to get where they are. Obviously the Canes won't be making any major moves when they're not even above the cutoff line. They may get a defenseman but that's about it. Svechnikov is very good, but not a generational talent like Crosby.
  22. Well, I found some information on under 25 scoring. They use goals above replacement (similar to wins against replacement in baseball, I guess). These are the top-10 teams leading the way with under-25 scoring. The Blue Jackets are way far ahead in just about all total areas ..... Millennials are not killing these teams 2019-20 NHL teams with the most goals above replacement (GAR) created by players in their age-25 season or younger Goals Above Replacement Team Offense Defense Goaltending Total Share of Team Total Columbus Blue Jackets 20.5 26.4 19.1 65.9 76.3% Colorado Avalanche 39.7 17.8 0.0 57.5 55.3 Toronto Maple Leafs 42.2 13.1 0.0 55.3 70.3 Carolina Hurricanes 27.7 24.0 0.0 51.8 57.9 Pittsburgh Penguins 18.9 17.8 12.3 49.1 48.9 Buffalo Sabres 31.6 14.6 0.0 46.2 68.8 Vancouver Canucks 31.6 12.2 0.3 44.1 51.4 Edmonton Oilers 29.2 13.0 0.0 42.2 57.9 New York Rangers 21.5 10.9 8.3 40.7 49.9 Arizona Coyotes 18.3 18.2 2.8 39.2 43.9 A player’s “seasonal age” is determined by his age on Feb. 1 of the season. Source: Hockey-Reference.com
  23. I think it shows that Pittsburgh and Carolina are in two completely different places. The Penguins use their picks and prospects to supplement their core in trades. And if there's any left over they use them to fill in the holes. Plus, they do draft well. Matt Muray was a 3rd round pick. Jarry a 2nd. Rust was a 3rd rounder. Letang a 2nd. Rust should hit 30 goals this year. Guentzel was a 3rd rounder who scored 40 goals last year and 20 in the first half this year. They needed to replace him ... so you go out and get Zucker. You don't worry about what it costs. You do it. There'll be time later to trade some veterans and replenish the farm system. It's important to remember they've won 3 cups in the same amount of time the Canes have made the playoffs once.
  24. San Jose loses Hertl for this season and possibly more with a torn MCL and ACL .... https://www.yahoo.com/sports/sharks-lose-hertl-season-push-202407185.html
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