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The Race for the #1 pick in 2010!

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Wow, just wow.  I really thought the Oilers would pull out the win last night but wow.   This race looks over for us, I just don't anyone matching whats happening to Edmonton right now.   Keith can anyone pinpoint what exactly went wrong and when?  Was it just all the injuries?

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3-22-2. Yeah, they want it worse than we do. Brutal. Looks more and more like the best we will do is 28th, unless Toronto picks it up or our backup goalies fade.

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One last shot at this from me for a while. At the moment the Oilers seem to have last securely tucked away. Not only because of the current records, but because of their honest terribleness. But recently an article mentioned the Canes having their eye on the 8th spot for the playoffs. JUST SAY NO! Holy mother of all that is sane. Are they serious or just blowing smoke?

30th place is quite sweet in then end because there are two offensive superstars available, but 29th is still very nice. But making a run at the playoffs when we have essentially no chance, just because we have had a nice run from finally dealing with THE issue that has been holding us back is nuts. If this team ends up with the 14th pick just for a meaningless run, I will seriously question JR's mind.

Now, to be fair we have been starting back up goalies recently (though the riding Cam thing was also nuts), and have enough minor leaguers to have expected a few more losses, but I am feeling the real need to get some vets traded now so we can get back to the rebuild and out of delusion land.

Winning is fun. But this year it is "having an affair fun". May get a cheap thrill now, but there will be a price to pay.

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Wow, just wow.  I really thought the Oilers would pull out the win last night but wow.   This race looks over for us, I just don't anyone matching whats happening to Edmonton right now.   Keith can anyone pinpoint what exactly went wrong and when?  Was it just all the injuries?

http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=430126

A lot of things have gone wrong, but injuries are the biggest issue. Still, questionable coaching (in my mind), lack of effort, porous special teams, bad goaltending.... you name it. A lot has to go wrong for you to finish dead last in the NHL. Doesn't help that the West has gotten much, much deeper this year with the Kings/Coyotes/Avs doing as well as they are.

but when you boil it down, we're just not a very good hockey team.

  

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Yikes, looking at the standings today after last night's win...we're only 6 points out of 10th, and we are 8-2 in our last 10. The four teams in front of us are the Isles at 2-8, the Panthers at 3-6-1, the Rangers at 2-8, and Atlanta at 4-4-2. The Panthers have already said they are sellers.

I guess we'll see what moving these UFAs out will do...

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The Canes are a better team than the standings indicate. I've always felt that. They finally got healthy and the results are starting to show. You're leaving the Leafs behind.
Yep, its like night and day, we Deserved to be the worst team in league in oct/nov, now we are playing like always expected, just so fustrating of "what could have been"..if even played .400 hockey in oct/nv we are in like 5th-8th in race and no one wants to see us, the good news will be with all these draft picks accumulating, the future is bright and can really develop and be alot more soldi year in/year out then the rollercoaster we have been on the last 8 years

  

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According to SportsClubStats, the Canes have gone from a season low chance of 0.010% (on day 109) chance of making the playoffs to a 0.73% chance (on day 134), which is the highest since day 36 of the season.

Points to make Eastern playoffs by year

2007       92

2008       94

2009       93

Let's be generous and say that 92 points will make the playoffs.  The Canes now have 55 points with 21 games left to play.  They need 37 points to hit the magic number of 92.

Another way of looking at this is, the Canes need 36 points to move from one the top 3 draft picks to the 14th draft pick.

37 points is an unreal 18-2-1.  Or 17-1-3.

17-3-1 gives us the 14th draft pick, no more.  No playoffs.

I can't even understand why I am typing this in, except to express the utter frustration of what has happened this season.  I am loving the way the team is playing right now.  They look amazing.  This is everything we thought this team could be.  Where in the heck were they when they went to sleep for 100+ days? 

The only thing more frustrating is if we play ourselves right out of a good draft pick to boot.  This is the inverse of 2008, but the result will be the same.

What in the heck is going on? 

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It's hard to compare what we have done recently to how we might play after the Olympic break and the trade deadline.  I suspect this team will look totally different.  Our schedule in March is pretty tough.  I still think we will finish 24th or 25th in the league at best.  Before this 13-game run we were 10 points out.  Right now, we are about the same.  I'm with the rest of you scratching our heads and just wondering what could have been.  Damn frustrating.

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According to SportsClubStats, the Canes have gone from a season low chance of 0.010% (on day 109) chance of making the playoffs to a 0.73% chance (on day 134), which is the highest since day 36 of the season.

So in other words, we had less than a one percent chance of making the playoff on day 109 and still have a less than one percent chance of making the playoff on day 134.  Whoohoo?

What is there to gain with all the "if only" discussion?  Just enjoy what we have now for what it is.  Isn't this a heck of a lot better than Oct/Nov/Dec?  Who cares about the draft pick.  JR will have plenty of assets acquired by the deadline to make some deals and get some good young players.

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It's hard to compare what we have done recently to how we might play after the Olympic break and the trade deadline.  I suspect this team will look totally different.  Our schedule in March is pretty tough.  I still think we will finish 24th or 25th in the league at best.  Before this 13-game run we were 10 points out.  Right now, we are about the same.  I'm with the rest of you scratching our heads and just wondering what could have been.  Damn frustrating.

See how hard it is to make up ground?  Even when playing great, we haven't moved much.  I was looking at the standing last night and I figured it about the same as you.  We'll catch a couple of teams, but then there is some separation.

It's a fun team to watch right now though.

  

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Actually, 13 games ago they were 17 points out of 8th place (and 8 points out of 14th). They are now 9 points out of 8th (and 6 ahead of 15th).

So in the last 13 games they have almost made up half the ground to a play-off spot.

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[quote name='Faceoff-ch1 wrote:


hag65']According to
the Canes have gone from a season low chance of 0.010% (on day 109) chance of making the playoffs to a 0.73% chance (on day 134), which is the highest since day 36 of the season.

So in other words, we had less than a one percent chance of making the playoff on day 109 and still have a less than one percent chance of making the playoff on day 134.  Whoohoo?

What is there to gain with all the "if only" discussion?  Just enjoy what we have now for what it is.  Isn't this a heck of a lot better than Oct/Nov/Dec?  Who cares about the draft pick.  JR will have plenty of assets acquired by the deadline to make some deals and get some good young players.

Well count me in as one person who cares about the draft pick.  Of course its better than Oct/Nov/Dec.  That's not the point.  I can enjoy the wins and still scratch my head about why. "Good young players" isn't the point either.  A great young player is.

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[quote name='hag65 wrote:


Faceoff-ch1 wrote:

hag65']According to
the Canes have gone from a season low chance of 0.010% (on day 109) chance of making the playoffs to a 0.73% chance (on day 134), which is the highest since day 36 of the season.

So in other words, we had less than a one percent chance of making the playoff on day 109 and still have a less than one percent chance of making the playoff on day 134.  Whoohoo?

What is there to gain with all the "if only" discussion?  Just enjoy what we have now for what it is.  Isn't this a heck of a lot better than Oct/Nov/Dec?  Who cares about the draft pick.  JR will have plenty of assets acquired by the deadline to make some deals and get some good young players.

Well count me in as one person who cares about the draft pick.  Of course its better than Oct/Nov/Dec.  That's not the point.  I can enjoy the wins and still scratch my head about why. "Good young players" isn't the point either.  A great young player is.

Get ready to be disappointed.  There are too many teams that are trying very hard to drop below us in the standings. 

You can still get great players without getting the #1 pick.  There is also no guarantee that those players who go at the top will be great.   There is no Crosby or Ovechkin in this year's draft. 

Exactly how do you enjoy the wins and continue to hope for the #1 pick?  Seems a little disconnected but hey, I'm a blonde what do I know?

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Actually, 13 games ago they were 17 points out of 8th place (and 8 points out of 14th). They are now 9 points out of 8th (and 6 ahead of 15th).

So in the last 13 games they have almost made up half the ground to a play-off spot.

And yet we managed to only jump over one team in the process.  You can't look at the points without looking at the teams in front of us. 

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[quote name='Faceoff-ch1 wrote:


InvisibleCane']Actually, 13 games ago they were 17 points out of 8th place (and 8 points out of 14th). They are now 9 points out of 8th (and 6 ahead of 15th).

So in the last 13 games they have almost made up half the ground to a play-off spot.

And yet we managed to only jump over one team in the process.  You can't look at the points without looking at the teams in front of us. 

sure you can.  8 points isnt significant to you?  say we do the same thing in our next 13 games; now we are somewhere in 8th-10th place

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[quote name='hurricanes1210 wrote:


Faceoff-ch1 wrote:

InvisibleCane']Actually, 13 games ago they were 17 points out of 8th place (and 8 points out of 14th). They are now 9 points out of 8th (and 6 ahead of 15th).

So in the last 13 games they have almost made up half the ground to a play-off spot.

And yet we managed to only jump over one team in the process.  You can't look at the points without looking at the teams in front of us. 

sure you can.  8 points isnt significant to you?  say we do the same thing in our next 13 games; now we are somewhere in 8th-10th place

Well I guess you can but your logic is amiss if you do not consider the FIVE teamsin front of us who will be playing each other; therefore they can't alllose.  Since you asked, the 8 points are not significant to me.  Notone bit.  We are still 15th in the standings.  I think that is astronger statement. 

I am neither in the #1 draft pick campnor the lets make the playoffs camp.  Both are not mathematicallyeliminated for us but both are about equally unattainable.    I just goto the games, cheer for my team, hope for a win, have a good timeeither way, and whatever happens, happens.  I'll let the chips fallwhere they may and let JR figure out how to build the team for nextyear with whatever hand he is dealt.  I learned a long time ago not toworry about things I can't control nor to put a lot of hope into thingsthat have very low probabilities.  I hate being disappointed.  Not tomention, if either was to happen, I'll get just as much enjoyment aseveryone else who chose sides - without the risk of disappointment. 

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[quote name='Faceoff-ch1 wrote:


hurricanes1210 wrote:

Faceoff-ch1']And yet we managed to only jump over one team in the process.  You can't look at the points without looking at the teams in front of us. 

sure you can.  8 points isnt significant to you?  say we do the same thing in our next 13 games; now we are somewhere in 8th-10th place

Well I guess you can but your logic is amiss if you do not consider the FIVE teams in front of us who will be playing each other; therefore they can't all lose.  Since you asked, the 8 points are not significant to me.  Not one bit.  We are still 15th in the standings.  I think that is a stronger statement. 

I am neither in the #1 draft pick camp nor the lets make the playoffs camp.  Both are not mathematically eliminated for us but both are about equally unattainable.    I just go to the games, cheer for my team, hope for a win, have a good time either way, and whatever happens, happens.  I'll let the chips fall where they may and let JR figure out how to build the team for next year with whatever hand he is dealt.  I learned a long time ago not to worry about things I can't control nor to put a lot of hope into things that have very low probabilities.  I hate being disappointed.  Not to mention, if either was to happen, I'll get just as much enjoyment as everyone else who chose sides - without the risk of disappointment. 

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Exactly how do you enjoy the wins and continue to hope for the #1 pick?  Seems a little disconnected but hey, I'm a blonde what do I know?

Dichotomy.

I'm a season ticket holder like many here.  I enjoy wins and good hockey.

Don't confuse emotion and logic.  I still love seeing us stick it to Buffalo (and others).  That doesn't change the logic of the fact that finishing just out of the playoffs hurts the future.  Isn't that the whole point of this thread?

Call it a win/win situation (or a lose/lose if you are a pessimist).  If we play really well and beat Buffalo, New Jersey, etc, we get to enjoy it.  If we lose, it serves the other purpose.

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Winning streaks play with the mind. Realistically we would need to go about 17-2-2 from here out to get the #7 slot. We've had a great run, but this team does not have the horses to keep this up. JR realizes this or he would not have traded Cullen. As soon as possible he needs to move Whitney and whoever else he can, put this season out of it's misery, and move back up the draft board.

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Exactly how do you enjoy the wins and continue to hope for the #1 pick?  Seems a little disconnected but hey, I'm a blonde what do I know?

Dichotomy.

I'm a season ticket holder like many here.  I enjoy wins and good hockey.

Don't confuse emotion and logic.  I still love seeing us stick it to Buffalo (and others).  That doesn't change the logic of the fact that finishing just out of the playoffs hurts the future.  Isn't that the whole point of this thread?

Call it a win/win situation (or a lose/lose if you are a pessimist).  If we play really well and beat Buffalo, New Jersey, etc, we get to enjoy it.  If we lose, it serves the other purpose.

I have to say I disagree with your statement that finishing just out of the playoffs hurts the future.  The sky isn't going to fall when we end up in 11th place in the East.   It may not help the future as much as getting a #1 pick but it does not hurt it. 

We finished 20th place with the league in 2007 and all we got for it was Brandon Sutter.  Phoenix selected Center Kyle Turris with their #3 pick.  Where is he?   Still in the minors.  Philly selected James Van Reimsdyk with their #2.   This season he has 13 goals and and 32 points.  Brandon has 14 goals and 29 points.  Cam Ward was picked at #25 in 02.  And we all know how our #3 pick in 05 worked out for us.  The kid didn't want to play for us.  With #4 in 04, we got Ladd.  Nothing against Ladd but I wouldn't classify him as a great player, good but not great.  We can get a player of his caliber without drafting them.  A high draft pick does not guarantee greatness and not getting it does not mean we still won't be great in the future.

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[quote name='Faceoff-ch1 wrote:


hag65']

Exactly how do you enjoy the wins and continue to hope for the #1 pick?  Seems a little disconnected but hey, I'm a blonde what do I know?

Dichotomy.

I'm a season ticket holder like many here.  I enjoy wins and good hockey.

Don't confuse emotion and logic.  I still love seeing us stick it to Buffalo (and others).  That doesn't change the logic of the fact that finishing just out of the playoffs hurts the future.  Isn't that the whole point of this thread?

Call it a win/win situation (or a lose/lose if you are a pessimist).  If we play really well and beat Buffalo, New Jersey, etc, we get to enjoy it.  If we lose, it serves the other purpose.

I have to say I disagree with your statement that finishing just out of the playoffs hurts the future.  The sky isn't going to fall when we end up in 11th place in the East.   It may not help the future as much as getting a #1 pick but it does not hurt it. 

We finished 20th place with the league in 2007 and all we got for it was Brandon Sutter.  Phoenix selected Center Kyle Turris with their #3 pick.  Where is he?   Still in the minors.  Philly selected James Van Reimsdyk with their #2.   This season he has 13 goals and and 32 points.  Brandon has 14 goals and 29 points.  Cam Ward was picked at #25 in 02.  And we all know how our #3 pick in 05 worked out for us.  The kid didn't want to play for us.  With #4 in 04, we got Ladd.  Nothing against Ladd but I wouldn't classify him as a great player, good but not great.  We can get a player of his caliber without drafting them.  A high draft pick does not guarantee greatness and not getting it does not mean we still won't be great in the future.

I'm not sure I said the sky was falling.  We'll get what we get and live with it.

I just think that you have a higher probability of getting a great player with a higher pick.  We all know nothing is guaranteed.  That doesn't change the odds, however.  For every mistake pick there is an Alex Ovechkin pick.  And before you claim that that one is a no brainer, there was no guarantee with him either.

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I'm not sure I said the sky was falling.  We'll get what we get and live with it.

I just think that you have a higher probability of getting a great player with a higher pick.  We all know nothing is guaranteed.  That doesn't change the odds, however.  For every mistake pick there is an Alex Ovechkin pick.  And before you claim that that one is a no brainer, there was no guarantee with him either.

Oh I have to disagree with the above highlighted sentence.  There are many more picks that don't turn out well than there are Alex Ovechkin picks.   Ovie's come along very rarely - there is not one in every draft year.  How many players of Ovie's caliber have been drafted in the last 10 years?  You think that number equals the number of top 5 picks that were bad?  Really?  There is no Ovechkin or Crosby in this year's draft.  There wasn't one in last year's or the year before.

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There doesn't need to be an Ovechkin to make it worth getting a top pick. A Stamkos or Tavares would be just fine. Look back earlier in this thread or look up the top 2 picks for the last 10 years. Not many duds in that lot. When this thread was started we were in last and guaranteed a top 2 pick. Only time will tell where the eventual top 2 picks end up in hockey history, but the odds are good that they will do better than whomever is picked 14 and 15.

It is certainly not the end of the world to not get in the top 5, but it increases the chances that we will get a future star dramatically.

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