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Moving on up - Firesale??? - Playoffs???

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The Canes have 39 points and have 31 games remaining.  They would need to finish something on the order of 25-3-3.  To have an outside shot of slipping in as an 8 seed.   Isn't going to happen.   Time to start with the youth movement,  Trade some of the UFAs for draft picks and give some of the young guns real-time experience.

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Lets say 94 points usually make a playoff sport. Being very optimistic and somewhat lucky, maybe it could be done with 90 points.

So, that still means the canes must get 51 points from 31 games...that's just not goin' to happen...no way.

Sorry for destroying your hope, but even the hockey gods themselfs would have to be trying very very hard to get that done^^

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I'm listening to the Canes beat the Isles right now... regarding the month of January... these are the boys we know.

Now this is the team JR intended to build.  I'm still optimistic.

Yeah for next season

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Whitney and Cullen need to be traded off ASAP to ensure we don't move out of the bottom 3. I want to see the Canes win as badly as anyone, but it is only hurting our future to have the team go on a tear right now and put us in between top picks and no playoffs.

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Okay with last night's win and a win on Sat. is is within the realm of the possible that this team is within 10 points of the #8 slot in the playoff hunt.  Obviously, we are not going to be buyers in the coming weeks and really, with Ruutu, Cole, Walker and Corvo all coming back sometime soon, we essentially get the guys in the lineup we'd want to make a real run for it anyway. 

Can this team actually make a run for it and if so, does JR let go of the likes of Whitney, Cullen, etc???  Remember serious revenue is on the line if we actually make it into the 2nd season. 

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The playoffs simply aren't going to happen.....and it's time people came to that stark realization and quit dreaming about it.

Rutherford said yesterday, that he is a "seller" and will be making moves that will help this organization in the long run.

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You know your season has been THAT bad when you are the 29th team in the league and a three game win streak leads to this...

It would be foolish to sacrifice the assets we can acquire via a fire sale for a pipe dream that has less than a 1% chance of happening. 

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Okay...8 games to the break and then about another 20 after that...many teams above us not playing that well and certainly possible with a run of taking 5 of the next 8 we're within 6 to 8 pts of the 8th spot; certainly reasonable with the way the team is playing. Then what?

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That's assuming EVERYONE above us decides to play poorly enough for us to overtake them. I have no doubt some teams will drop and we might pass them. But there's a ridiculously low chance of us being able to jump ahead of ALL of them, especially considering that many will play each other (and someone has to win in those). That's not even considering OT and SO losses for these teams. So yes we'll pass some teams, but we won't be leapfrogging enough to make the playoffs this year.

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Look. It is not going to happen. 29 games remain. Do you really believe that this team can go 24-5? Even if they do go 24-5, that only gets the Canes 91 points. There has been only one post lockout season that 91 points has made the postseason. Most years you needed 95 points. Do your really think the Canes can go 26-3? Canes lose 6 more games & they will not even get to 90 points.

Bottom line is that too many of the teams ahead of the canes play each other. Every one of those games will award 2 or 3 points. So even if some of the teams ahead of the canes lose. The reality is that some are going to win, and get points.

While the three game win streak is nice...it will not be enough to get them into the playoffs. This is the perfect year to get draft picks for players. This year's draft is very deep in talent. Canes could really stock up the cupboard. I would listen to every offer, and trade any UFA that I could get an asset for. Then bring up some rats for an end of year try out.

The Canes would regret not doing a fire sale this year.

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Let me give you another perspective.  You remember the 02-03 season right?  We finished in 30th with 61 points.  So far we have played 52 games this season and have 43 points.  After 52 games in 02-03 we had 45 points.  We are not even up to par with that season yet!!! We are currently on pace for 68 points this season.

Do I think we will get more than 68 points, yes.  Do I think we have a snowball's chance of making the playoffs, yes.  Yes we do have about the same chances of a snowball in H E double hockey sticks of seeing playoff hockey in Raleigh.

If we take 5 of the next 8, that means we will need to take 18 of the last 21 - ain't happenin' dude.

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Okay...8 games to the break and then about another 20 after that...many teams above us not playing that well and certainly possible with a run of taking 5 of the next 8 we're within 6 to 8 pts of the 8th spot; certainly reasonable with the way the team is playing. Then what?
I know what you're saying, but...  The real problem is that even though these teams are not playing well, they play each other, so 2 or 3 points are awarded to these badly playing teams.  A great example is ATL versus PHI last night.  Points were awarded, the water level rises.  This "water level" rising is what makes the 10 points so darn difficult to overcome.

For the miracle to happen, the following must take place:

  • Canes need to win A LOT of games, 22 or 23, with some OTLs.  They can only lose a few, 3 or 4.
  • Canes need to put those wins against the middle teams and deny them their points.  Beating Atlanta more important than beating Washington.

  • Top teams (WAS, PIT, NJD, BUF) need to beat those middle teams almost every time they meet them.
  • Western conference teams need to beat those middle teams in all their match ups

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Would I love to see the Canes defy the odds and make a miracle run to the playoffs...you bet. If we did I would be a very happy camper.

But the reality is it is very unlikely, in fact almost impossible. The decision was made earlier this season not to wait to rebuild.  I think we get as many draft picks, prospects and young players as we can through trades. Over the summer we will complete our rebuild using some of those picks, players and prospects to get players we want and pick up UFA as well. I think JR has already at least hinted at this and I don't see us taking our eye off the goal of rebuilding this team.

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This team is sale sale sale no matter what. Even if they were to pull off a miracle and make the playoffs when its all said and done you would still be left with the oldest team in the league, expired contracts with nothing in return for them, and no young talent to replace anything other than whats already in Albany. You have a positive situation here of veteran guys on the last year of their contract and being able to rent them out to teams for picks and prospects that help build your future. You get young talent, picks, and they aren't ready next year, guess what?, the veteran forwards you traded away that are now out of their contract come right back. You guys will be happy in 2-3 years when the Canes are one of the youngest teams in the league and yet again competing for a Stanley Cup, the future is bright.

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This team is sale sale sale no matter what. Even if they were to pull off a miracle and make the playoffs when its all said and done you would still be left with the oldest team in the league, expired contracts with nothing in return for them, and no young talent to replace anything other than whats already in Albany. You have a positive situation here of veteran guys on the last year of their contract and being able to rent them out to teams for picks and prospects that help build your future. You get young talent, picks, and they aren't ready next year, guess what?, the veteran forwards you traded away that are now out of their contract come right back. You guys will be happy in 2-3 years when the Canes are one of the youngest teams in the league and yet again competing for a Stanley Cup, the future is bright.
Well said... Trades are in the near future and some contracts will go unsigned.

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Maybe we let Cullen go as Jokinen can play 2nd or 3rd line center but no way Whitney goes until the deadline (if at all) if we keep winning. He is not a salary dump as we plan on resigning him for next year; Corvo/Ward are somewhat expendable as the blueliners are playing well so we can let one of them go for a draft pick but a full on firesale is not gonna happen if we keep winning and making ground. I see one or two players moved at the most; the other veterans will not be resigned an we'll rebuild by bringing up the younger guys with smaller salaries and in free agency in the off season.

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Maybe we let Cullen go as Jokinen can play 2nd or 3rd line center but no way Whitney goes until the deadline (if at all) if we keep winning. He is not a salary dump as we plan on resigning him for next year; Corvo/Ward are somewhat expendable as the blueliners are playing well so we can let one of them go for a draft pick but a full on firesale is not gonna happen if we keep winning and making ground. I see one or two players moved at the most; the other veterans will not be resigned an we'll rebuild by bringing up the younger guys with smaller salaries and in free agency in the off season.
Sorry man, but it is going to be a fire sale. Every UFA is on the block. Whitney is gone, because he will bring the most return. Cullen, Corvo, Walker, Wallin, and A. Ward all on the block. Any decent offer for any of these players, and they will be gone. Plus some non-pending free agents are on the trade block. I think the canes will trade at least 4 players. If it is any less than 4 players it will be because of no offers, or bad offers for some players. NOT BECAUSE THEY ARE WINNING, because this season is done like dinner!!!

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As much as my heart loves seeing the Canes playing better, my brain is clear that a sustained winning streak would be a huge mistake even if possible.

Yes there is the aforementioned long shot to make the playoffs. That is about like picking one number on the roulette wheel and then betting your house and all your belongings on it. Not a great idea. On top of the other excellent points made about expiring contracts and aging veterans there is this. Even if our number came up and against all odds we make the playoffs, it will almost certainly be in the 7 or 8 slot. I know we had a great run last year, but does anyone think this team is taking out the Caps or the Pens this year? Very high odds we get 2 or 3 playoff games at home and we're gone. Especially with the effort that would be needed to go on the insane run needed to even slide into the #8 slot.

And then, after all of that, we get a crappy draft pick and no return on Cole/Whitney/Corvo etc.

We've had our fun, let's get one last improbable win tonight, then get back to the serious business of a top draft pick and smart rebuild.

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