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ColossalCaniac

The real value of a second round pick

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But wouldn't trading Whitney make it so that we could give a team in the top 3 draft pick positions our 2 1st round picks plus some 2nd round picks? I like Ray a lot, but I still think that if he didn't have a NTC then he could have and should have been dealt and attempted to be resigned in the offseason.

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As bad as the bottom tier teams are which of them is going to be willing to trade away their early pick. I don't see this as a year where much dealing will be done to get more picks. All those teams IMO will want to keep themselves in the top 3 or 4. I'm sure they feel they need immediate impact player from their draft position.

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As bad as the bottom tier teams are which of them is going to be willing to trade away their early pick. I don't see this as a year where much dealing will be done to get more picks. All those teams IMO will want to keep themselves in the top 3 or 4. I'm sure they feel they need immediate impact player from their draft position.

I had to think about this a bit and came to the same conclusion. Look at the Oilers and Leafs: Especially with their latest moves they are in a position where they have to add a serious franchise kind of forward. Looking at the draft, where there are Hall and Seguin at the top, both teams WILL keep their picks and go for one of'em, there's no way they would give up on it.

The only thing I might see is that one of the teams will get out of its slump, and lets say maybe the Islanders would move into 2nd draft position. That's where I could imagine they could move their pick because they may be looking for a defenseman instead of a scoring  winger. Still, our pick maybe too low at the end to land a guy like Fowler, as we continue to gather points.

Sadly, I think we'll have to be pleased with whatever 1st round pick we will get in the end, without too many hope to move up whether by trade or through the lottery. But, maybe, we could acquire an additional mid 1st round pick by giving up some of the deep picks we acquired shortly, I think that's the most realistic and still very good scenario.

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It is an interesting discussion. Points out the value of 1st rounders. I would venture to guess that the higher the pick the greater correlation with a better career. People love to point out the exceptions, but generally the odds favor the rule.

I agree that it is very hard to imagine a team in the #1-4 picks taking a bunch of second round picks to let us move up. That's why this little winning streak is fun for fans but not the best for our long run goals.

Whitney might have fetched a first round pick. We were offered a second and a serious prospect. We'll never know for sure.

I wonder if there is any history of a team picking say mid first round giving up their 1st rounder for a clump of second and lower picks. Just seems unlikely, but I am no long term student of the NHL draft.

Right now there is one point between us and the #3 slot in the lottery. The main thing is to stop moving up. It serves no purpose. A few more losses and the math will take the playoff fantasies away. No one likes to hear it, but losing is best now.Just 5 more weeks left anyway, might as well get a top pick.

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Right now there is one point between us and the #3 slot in the lottery. The main thing is to stop moving up. It serves no purpose. A few more losses and the math will take the playoff fantasies away. No one likes to hear it, but losing is best now.Just 5 more weeks left anyway, might as well get a top pick.
You should try and sway the opinion of the team, not us.  Everyone hear has their own opinion all ready. cool.gif

  

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[quote name='coastal_caniac wrote:


remkin']Right now there is one point between us and the #3 slot in the lottery. The main thing is to stop moving up. It serves no purpose. A few more losses and the math will take the playoff fantasies away. No one likes to hear it, but losing is best now.Just 5 more weeks left anyway, might as well get a top pick.

You should try and sway the opinion of the team, not us.  Everyone hear has their own opinion all ready. cool.gif

  Who's going to tell Tim Gleason that we want to lose?

  

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[quote name='coastal_caniac wrote:


remkin']Right now there is one point between us and the #3 slot in the lottery. The main thing is to stop moving up. It serves no purpose. A few more losses and the math will take the playoff fantasies away. No one likes to hear it, but losing is best now.Just 5 more weeks left anyway, might as well get a top pick.

You should try and sway the opinion of the team, not us.  Everyone hear has their own opinion all ready. cool.gif

  True, though once the playoffs are out mathematically some may change their minds. I've never thought the players should try to lose, that's up to JR and he's probably done about all he can. Most likely the remainder of the schedule should take care of things somewhat.

That stat about second rounders and the unlikeliness of teams with the very top pick giving them up just pointed out that despite all of the late draft picks JR picked up nothing substitutes for a very high 1st round pick and likely the only way to get it is to finish near the bottom.

But hey, call a team meeting and I'll run it by the boys. Just make sure I am behind plexi-glass and have about 10 body guards.

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[quote name='Portisfreak wrote:


caniacbeej']As bad as the bottom tier teams are which of them is going to be willing to trade away their early pick. I don't see this as a year where much dealing will be done to get more picks. All those teams IMO will want to keep themselves in the top 3 or 4. I'm sure they feel they need immediate impact player from their draft position.

I had to think about this a bit and came to the same conclusion. Look at the Oilers and Leafs: Especially with their latest moves they are in a position where they have to add a serious franchise kind of forward. Looking at the draft, where there are Hall and Seguin at the top, both teams WILL keep their picks and go for one of'em, there's no way they would give up on it.

The only thing I might see is that one of the teams will get out of its slump, and lets say maybe the Islanders would move into 2nd draft position. That's where I could imagine they could move their pick because they may be looking for a defenseman instead of a scoring  winger. Still, our pick maybe too low at the end to land a guy like Fowler, as we continue to gather points.

Sadly, I think we'll have to be pleased with whatever 1st round pick we will get in the end, without too many hope to move up whether by trade or through the lottery. But, maybe, we could acquire an additional mid 1st round pick by giving up some of the deep picks we acquired shortly, I think that's the most realistic and still very good scenario.
I agree with this assesment, but i also think that JR is going to move heaven and earth to secure the number 2 pick. Its just a vibe, but i think that JR really wants Tyler Seguin bad. And i agree- from what i know, Seguin is like a mini Matt Cullen! Just a vibe though, i cant back it up at all (cept for the obvious preference we give to Plymouth Whalers in teh draft- Crhis Terry, Michael Jordan, Chad LaRose)

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The real value of a second round pick/multiple picks is to package it up as attractively as possible and present it to a team that is heavily laden in young talent who can't really afford another first round pick on their roster. Those teams will be the most likely to bite and give up their first rounder to avoid having to figure out how to juggle an overload of expensive youngsters when they come out of their initial entry contracts.

Not that we'd want their picks as they'd be very low first rounders, but look at the Blackhawks and the Penguins for example. Both of those teams are so heavily laden with young talent that when they're coming up to the resigning phase they're having to move some VERY good young players along because they can't afford to keep them all.

What we're looking for is a team that has that sort of talent who is on the cusp of a huge breakout like the Blackhawks and Penguins and is likely to hit it within two seasons, but who isn't quite there this year. A Phoenix or Los Angeles might like that. They've both made huge strides this season, but aren't that top tier yet. Tampa might be another one as they are faced with the prob of pricey vets as well as some high level talent from the past few drafts. They'll have the best pick of the three teams, but we may not want to trade with someone who can regularly burn us with whatever they draft as the result of a trade like that.

Barring a decent trade, we go with the 3 second rounders, playing the odds that one of them turns into that guy who is an NHL mainstay. We have a fair shot at a winner with that many picks.

L

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The real value of a second round pick depends on the homework a team does in preparing for the draft.  This is one area that the Canes haven't done too well over time.  It is how a non-salary cap team can be competitive though.  If J.R. isn't going to be able to "cap out", he needs for these picks to pan out and be contributing players on entry level deals and the reasonable RFA contracts that will follow.  The effectiveness of this draft will go a long way in determining how successful the organization can remain going forward.  We aren't going to make a big spash in free agency no matter how much we pine for that top flight winger for Staal. 

J.R. spent up to the cap this season and took a shot at a Cup run (with PK's blessing).   It failed and I don't think you'll see that happening here again any time soon.  I'd bet that the team that hits the ice at the start of next season will be 6 to 10 million below cap.  Draft success is how that happens over time. Unless J.R. can move into one of the top 3 spots, I see him standing pat and grabbing a volume of players and playing the odds that a couple will turn out to be strong contributors going forward.

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JR should definitely use the surplus 2nd round picks for trades.  The Hurricanes don't have the budget to cover a huge scouting staff like the Detroit Red Wings can, which is probably the main reason our drafting is average at best.  Once it gets past the 40th pick or so, I doubt the scouts have had the opportunity to have a real good look at many of these kids, especially the Euro's.

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I suscribe to the camp that believes the chances that a player will crack the lineup and make an impact immediately are greater the higher you pick in the draft.  That being said, I'd rather package up some 2nd round picks and get another first rounder, assuming we can remain in the top 20 picks.

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The problem is that even if JR packages all three 2nd round picks--he'll probably get a late 1st rounder at best. I don't believe that any team with a top 5 pick is going to give that up.Period. I'd like to be wrong. I feel like we'll get about the #8 to 9 pick and possibly a high 1st (25-30) if we package the three 2nd round picks.

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The Hurricanes don't have the budget to cover a huge scouting staff like the Detroit Red Wings can, which is probably the main reason our drafting is average at best.  Once it gets past the 40th pick or so, I doubt the scouts have had the opportunity to have a real good look at many of these kids, especially the Euro's.

  

If over time the team wants to spend less on payroll by drafting well, they are going to have to put some money into scouting.  Yes, the big market teams do have an advantage over us by being able to spend big on scouting.  We'll know at the draft which way they are going.  I think if they can move way up it's probably good, but there probably isn't a ton of difference between late in the first and the second.

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The problem is that even if JR packages all three 2nd round picks--he'll probably get a late 1st rounder at best. I don't believe that any team with a top 5 pick is going to give that up.Period. I'd like to be wrong. I feel like we'll get about the #8 to 9 pick and possibly a high 1st (25-30) if we package the three 2nd round picks.

We'll see when the smoke clears, but my money's on JR to move up and get another first rounder.  Right now I see us finishing out of a chance for a lottery pick.   

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Some of the Canes best prospects are 2nd-rounders: McBain, Dalpe, Peters, and Dumoulin.

I would keep the extra picks ... and use them ... to help build system-wide depth - something

the Hurricanes lack.  It's not sexy, but it's necessary.  Building assets can help in many ways.

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Throwing in second round picks probably only moves us up a few spots. Makes the most sense if on draft day the guy JR wants might go a few picks ahead.

As for finishing out of the lottery, certainly seems that way the way we are playing of late, but I think this team has to come back to earth. We have a nice blend of youth and vets and there isn't much pressure, but we have a pretty brutal schedule from here on out and despite how we've been playing we have a lot of minor leaguers, castoffs, and backups out there. Plus things tend to go in cycles and we've just had a really good cycle.

The remaining games:

Washington, Pittsburgh (back to back), Phoenix, Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tampa (road), Washington, Atlanta, Atltana (road), Montreal (road), Ottawa (back to back road), New Jersey, Tampa (road), Montreal, Boston (road).

One would think we will be the underdog in all of the blue games. Doesn't mean we'll lose them all, but we should lose most of them. Not that that's a bad thing.

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Throwing in second round picks probably only moves us up a few spots. Makes the most sense if on draft day the guy JR wants might go a few picks ahead.

As for finishing out of the lottery, certainly seems that way the way we are playing of late, but I think this team has to come back to earth. We have a nice blend of youth and vets and there isn't much pressure, but we have a pretty brutal schedule from here on out and despite how we've been playing we have a lot of minor leaguers, castoffs, and backups out there. Plus things tend to go in cycles and we've just had a really good cycle.

The remaining games:

Washington, Pittsburgh (back to back), Phoenix, Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Tampa (road), Washington, Atlanta, Atltana (road), Montreal (road), Ottawa (back to back road), New Jersey, Tampa (road), Montreal, Boston (road).

One would think we will be the underdog in all of the blue games. Doesn't mean we'll lose them all, but we should lose most of them. Not that that's a bad thing.

Some people claim to have seen angels.  Or unicorns.  Others swear they've been probed by aliens. 

Then there's that group of true believers who think the Hurricanes have a chance to make the playoffs.

Well, this will be the week that officially crushes the hopes and playoff dreams of those people.

Then we can move on to more important topics like:

What does the future hold for Cam Ward, whose back is wonky, at best.  smile.gif

         

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Good chance that will happen.  It's hard to move up in the standings. 
13-4-1 in their last 18 and they're still 14th in the East, 28th overall.

Don't forget the Canes will have a decent chance, percentage-wise,
to win the draft lottery.  A team can move up a maximum of 4 slots.

The last time Carolina was worst overall (in 2003), Florida won the
draft lottery and leapfrogged from 3rd to 1st.

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