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jeromeo87

Defensive Rant..

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Here are some sites with advanced statistics and analysis:

http://puckprospectus.com/

http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/

http://www.behindthenet.ca/

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/

When Pitkanen plays, the Canes give up goals while he is on the ice and they give up goals when he is off the ice. Call them GAON and GAOFF. Since time on the ice/time off the ice makes a difference, divide by time to get a rate. These are usually multiplied by 60 to get GAON/60 and GAOFF/60. One advantage of this approach is to eliminate goalie effects.

Pitkanen has a 5v5 GAON/60 of 2.95 and a GAOFF/60 of 2.37

My conclusion is that if you measure defense in terms of goals allowed, Pitkanen is significantly below the average Hurricanes defenseman. I don't know what other conclusion you could draw.

And it is not the quality of competition (QOC). Pitkanen's QOC is 0.012. 0.0 is average. By comparison, Gleason has a GAON/60 of 2.46 and a QOC of 0.146

What about Babchuk?  Wouldn't it be great if he was here?

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Here are some sites with advanced statistics and analysis:

http://puckprospectus.com/

http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/

http://www.behindthenet.ca/

http://www.behindthenethockey.com/

When Pitkanen plays, the Canes give up goals while he is on the ice and they give up goals when he is off the ice. Call them GAON and GAOFF. Since time on the ice/time off the ice makes a difference, divide by time to get a rate. These are usually multiplied by 60 to get GAON/60 and GAOFF/60. One advantage of this approach is to eliminate goalie effects.

Pitkanen has a 5v5 GAON/60 of 2.95 and a GAOFF/60 of 2.37

My conclusion is that if you measure defense in terms of goals allowed, Pitkanen is significantly below the average Hurricanes defenseman. I don't know what other conclusion you could draw.

And it is not the quality of competition (QOC). Pitkanen's QOC is 0.012. 0.0 is average. By comparison, Gleason has a GAON/60 of 2.46 and a QOC of 0.146

You note Pitkanen's lesser quality of competition in comparison to Gleason, but neglect to note that Gleason also has a much higher quality of teammates rating as well. Does that not effect goals against?

Click over to Anaheim's page and you'll find Aaron Ward sitting at a -18 5-on-5 goal differential compared to Pitkanen's -4. Ward's goals against is significantly higher than Pitkanen's and his goals for significantly lower.  How can you compare Pitkanen to the "average Hurricanes defenseman" when he spent upwards of 40 games playing with what was by far the worst statistical Hurricanes defenseman according to BehindTheNet's stats? I crunched the numbers awhile back (in late January) and found that Pitkanen had a significantly better goal differential at ES when not paired with Ward. 

Also note that BehindTheNet's stats count empty net goals against. Pitkanen and Gleason both have 6 of those at 5-on-5, and then you have 1 for Wallin, 0 for Alberts, 0 for Carson and 0 for Ward. That also effects on/off-ice GA/60 as well.

Oh, and Pitkanen's 5-on-5 GFON/60 is 2.74. His GFOFF/60 is is 2.02. Which means that the Hurricanes score at a significantly higher rate with Pitkanen on the ice than they do without. The stats on that page show that the Hurricanes are -.20 per 60 minutes with Pitkanen on the ice and -.35 per 60 minutes with Pitkanen off the ice. Which means that the Hurricanes are a better team with Pitkanen on the ice at 5-on-5 than they are without him. That is your damning argument against Pitkanen? To go with him having a -4 5-on-5 goal differential, which turns into a + rating when you remove empty netters? Oh my.

Games are won by scoring more goals than the other team. To attempt to explain Pitkanen's worth to the team while looking merely at goals against while ignoring goals for, ignoring the defensive partners he played with and failing to remove empty net goals is ridiculous. The GA/60 stat does not take into account quality of competition orquality of teammates. The rating stat does. Pitkanen has a betterrating than Gleason by that formula. And since you are obviously aware of BehindTheNet, go to their GVT player ranking page (which were developed by one of the guys who does PuckProspectus.com) and tell me who - according to their rankings - is the most valuable Hurricanes defenseman and the third most valuable Hurricane overall? That would be Pitkanen. The links you provide seem to argue more in favor of Pitkanen than against him, though it may not seem so when you blatantly cherry-pick stats to suit your argument. I can use the same exact flimsly on/off-ice GA argument you used against Pitkanen to prove that Gonchar, Niedermayer, Robidas, Erik Johnson, Hamhuis, Keith, Boyle, and Ballard and many others are goals-against nightmares compared to the "average defenseman" on their team and that they are all inferior to Brett Carson.

Also, your "41st in adjusted points" for Pitkanen is nonsense. I have no idea where you got that stat. You mention that Picard is more productive than Pitkanen, yet I have Pitkanen as producing a point every 40:54 to Picard's 65:24. If you look at defensemen who have played a minimum of 20 games, Pitkanen is 20th in points-per-minute. And that's prior to Pitkanen's 2-point game against Washington.

Bottom line is that Pitkanen has 42 points in 61 games and has been a + player since the 12th game of the season. He's been scoring at a 60-point pace since the beginning of December. He is far from an expendable player or someone that we should be looking to trade. The idea that the presence of Alexandre Picard and Brian Pothier and Anton Babchuk of all people makes Pitkanen tradeable is hilarious. Pitkanen "gliding" and "being lazy" is still significantly faster than Babchuk skating at full speed.

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You're arguing with a xenophobe....this is pointless. There are NO stats that can accurately measure a defensemans worth to a team. Pits was paired up with Aaron Freaking Ward for HALF the season.

There's nothing left to argue...Pitkanen is the best defenseman on BOTH ends of the rink. Period.

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You're arguing with a xenophobe....this is pointless. There are NO stats that can accurately measure a defensemans worth to a team. Pits was paired up with Aaron Freaking Ward for HALF the season.

There's nothing left to argue...Pitkanen is the best defenseman on BOTH ends of the rink. Period. 

  

I agree, I think it's time we stuck a fork in this and call it done.  smile.gif

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You're arguing with a xenophobe....this is pointless. There are NO stats that can accurately measure a defensemans worth to a team. Pits was paired up with Aaron Freaking Ward for HALF the season.

There's nothing left to argue...Pitkanen is the best defenseman on BOTH ends of the rink. Period.

Well i will have to dissagree, he may be better at one end but definetly not the other end. Gleason is far better inthe d-end and so was Corvo, those 2 were our shut down d-men, and right now we are down to have no shut down d-men(w/Tim out) and I also believe the Pothier(sp?) is better in the d-zone than Joni. Thats whats nice about this ,,we can all have our own opinions good or bad, same or different!!

  

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If you want to see this team revert back to dump and chase all the time, go ahead deal Joni. See what happens, theres a reason teams want him and a major reason we needed and still need him. He's what made teams respect us in the neutral zone, he brings speed to the back end that make opposing teams drop back rather then stand thier ground in the neutral zone.

Ya'll want something to be concerned about next season, we got count em 4 open defensive slots and 1 75% NHL ready defensemen to fill 1 slot of the 4. Pothier, he's up in the air. I like em but his concussions are way more then a concern he averages 1 every 2 years and the next one's easily his last. We can't take such a risk on our back end, we lose him around game 60 we dont have the depth to fill that.



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You really just called Corvo a shut down d-man, wow. granted he is a good defensemen I don't think anyone has ever called him a shut down d-man before. Well except when he decides to shut down and pass the puck to the other team.

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That Pitkanen, he blew today.

Moving the puck through the neutral zone and getting off that pass to Boychuk, pure bull****. We need him dumping the puck and staying put in the defensive zone.

His goal? More of that out of position horsecrap we dont need moving forward.

\sarcasm

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Eric Staal may rack up points but it drives me crazy to see how many game/plays he just mails it in.  He is not a leader and I just can't understand why you would make a C out of a guy like that.  If he is the future (gulp) then put him in a position to win, don't ask more than he can give.   I would rather have the other Staal because he appears to care and plays hard all the time.  Does our Staal score?  Sure.   Does our Staal grind in the corners and race down the ice?  You will answer no if you are honest.  He seems to be motivated for a game or so and then just cruises along for another few.  I wish we could trade him for a guy with a little fire who was willing to earn his wage EVERY game he plays.

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Eric Staal may rack up points but it drives me crazy to see how many game/plays he just mails it in.  He is not a leader and I just can't understand why you would make a C out of a guy like that.  If he is the future (gulp) then put him in a position to win, don't ask more than he can give.   I would rather have the other Staal because he appears to care and plays hard all the time.  Does our Staal score?  Sure.   Does our Staal grind in the corners and race down the ice?  You will answer no if you are honest.  He seems to be motivated for a game or so and then just cruises along for another few.  I wish we could trade him for a guy with a little fire who was willing to earn his wage EVERY game he plays.
I thought this was a Defensive Rant thread, not an Eric Staal Rant thread.

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[quote name='MarkyMarkNC wrote:


playwithpride']Eric Staal may rack up points but it drives me crazy to see how many game/plays he just mails it in.  He is not a leader and I just can't understand why you would make a C out of a guy like that.  If he is the future (gulp) then put him in a position to win, don't ask more than he can give.   I would rather have the other Staal because he appears to care and plays hard all the time.  Does our Staal score?  Sure.   Does our Staal grind in the corners and race down the ice?  You will answer no if you are honest.  He seems to be motivated for a game or so and then just cruises along for another few.  I wish we could trade him for a guy with a little fire who was willing to earn his wage EVERY game he plays.

I thought this was a Defensive Rant thread, not an Eric Staal Rant thread.

Its because the moderators got sick of all these we hate "insert whipping boy here" threads, so they made it so that you had to post 30 times before you can start a thread.

Three things

1. A lazy staal is still far and away the best player on our team

2. I dont blame him for phoning it in, assuming he is capable of doing such (which i doubt) because there is no way we are making it to the playoffs this year.

3. On Team Canada, they had scoring talent coming out of their rear ends. The Carolina Hurricanes Organization does not. Thus, while a Team Canada can have Staal in a physical, checking role, the Carolina Hurricanes Organization needs him to score. Which he does. ALOT

Dont trade Pitkanen. Using only the fact that i have watched every game this year, I conclude the Pitkanen is our best defensmen on the ice, most of the time for both teams. Please stop beating a dead horse, and pick a new whipping boy. I think Picard is starting to come into style

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[quote name='ebhughes wrote:


MarkyMarkNC wrote:


playwithpride']

Eric Staal may rack up points but it drives me crazy to see how many game/plays he just mails it in.  He is not a leader and I just can't understand why you would make a C out of a guy like that.  If he is the future (gulp) then put him in a position to win, don't ask more than he can give.   I would rather have the other Staal because he appears to care and plays hard all the time.  Does our Staal score?  Sure.   Does our Staal grind in the corners and race down the ice?  You will answer no if you are honest.  He seems to be motivated for a game or so and then just cruises along for another few.  I wish we could trade him for a guy with a little fire who was willing to earn his wage EVERY game he plays.

I thought this was a Defensive Rant thread, not an Eric Staal Rant thread.

Its because the moderators got sick of all these we hate "insert whipping boy here" threads, so they made it so that you had to post 30 times before you can start a thread.

Three things

1. A lazy staal is still far and away the best player on our team

2. I dont blame him for phoning it in, assuming he is capable of doing such (which i doubt) because there is no way we are making it to the playoffs this year.

3. On Team Canada, they had scoring talent coming out of their rear ends. The Carolina Hurricanes Organization does not. Thus, while a Team Canada can have Staal in a physical, checking role, the Carolina Hurricanes Organization needs him to score. Which he does. ALOT

Dont trade Pitkanen. Using only the fact that i have watched every game this year, I conclude the Pitkanen is our best defensmen on the ice, most of the time for both teams. Please stop beating a dead horse, and pick a new whipping boy. I think Picard is starting to come into style

I would also add that most of the players for Team Canada have struggled since the Olympics since they basically played at the Stanley Cup Finals level of intensity and had that physical and mental let down after the Olympics ended.  San Jose is really struggling and they had several players in the Olympics too just as an example.

And yes, this could be another hit and run poster just registering and looking for a place to rant.  Hopefully not, and I'm pretty sure we have some Staal threads easily found with a quick search.

Back to our regularly scheduled defensive rant.... smile.gif

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I missed the game today. Please explain to me why we are still commenting on "defensive rant". A low scoring game against Pittsburgh I'd wager had a fair amount of decent defensive play, and some good goaltending, too. Guess I'll go view the game highlights and see for myself how bad Pitkanen was.

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I missed the game today. Please explain to me why we are still commenting on "defensive rant". A low scoring game against Pittsburgh I'd wager had a fair amount of decent defensive play, and some good goaltending, too. Guess I'll go view the game highlights and see for myself how bad Pitkanen was.
Pitkanen played a great game today and had 34:30 minutes of ice time.  If that isn't good enough for some around here, Bobby Orr himself wouldn't cut it either.  The team defense was spot on today too.  Not bad a for a bunch of rookies, a Caps cast off and an absolute horse.  Oh and the forwards did their part too.

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I have to admit.. Pitkanen was pretty amazing today. Personally, I think he saw this "Defensive Rant" thread..haha wink.gif He wasn't only great offensively, BUT he was also a pretty good shutdown guy today, a part of his play that I thought was slacking for a good part of the year. One can only hope that he brings this kind of play every shift. Good job Joni, keep it up.

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"Xenophobe"? Funny! Here more for you work with:

Eric Cole isn't earning his salary. Uh-oh! Un-American!

Georges Laraque and Derek Boogaard are one-dimensional goons. Racist and Self-Loathing! At the same time!

Actually, these are first facts you have posted. Eric Cole is not earning his salary AND Laraque and Boogaard are one-dimensional goons.

I'm thinking Cole (and Staal) need to take break away lessons from LaRose, for christmas sake. Can't hit water from a boat!

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Pitkanen rules! Its just that simple. He has an occasional bad game...sure, but the fact of the matter is that when the chips are down, and our offense is producing....Pitkanen is the one that made it happen.

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Well i will have to dissagree, he may be better at one end but definetly not the other end. Gleason is far better inthe d-end and so was Corvo, those 2 were our shut down d-men,..........

  

It's THOSE comments that are so laughably out of the ballpark, that I see it's pointless to even try and talk hockey with you. Corvo has NEVER been a shutdown defenseman....ever, in his career. What games are you watching? laugh.gif

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"Xenophobe"? Funny! Here more for you work with:

Eric Cole isn't earning his salary. Uh-oh! Un-American!

Georges Laraque and Derek Boogaard are one-dimensional goons. Racist and Self-Loathing! At the same time!

Now, we agree on something. Erik Cole is a complete waste of a roster spot and should be sent back to Edmonton with a letter of apology for stealing Pitkanen like we did.

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I must agree with those who have called out Pits for his lazy play. Lots of minutes, bad game, ok fine. We can do better. When I saw him "skate" to the bench prior to the too many men call, that was it.Move your butt! He has to get the most icing calls of any Cane. Shoots from just BEFORE the line..bingo, icing, kill that drive. He also must be the leader in dumb penalties, his latest, led to a power play goal.I TRY  really hard to think he can be the one, but I just don't see it.

Sadly, I have to agree with some of the critics of Staal too, when he's on ,super, when he's not, leave him on the bench, what's the point?

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[quote name='TheBigKahuna wrote:


DoctorMyBrainHurts']"Xenophobe"? Funny! Here more for you work with:

Eric Cole isn't earning his salary. Uh-oh! Un-American!

Georges Laraque and Derek Boogaard are one-dimensional goons. Racist and Self-Loathing! At the same time!

Now, we agree on something. Erik Cole is a complete waste of a roster spot and should be sent back to Edmonton with a letter of apology for stealing Pitkanen like we did.

Uh...wow!  I guess I overestimated you.  In my defense, you did use the word "xenophobe" in a sentence AND spell it correctly.

You may want to wade through this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irony

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[quote name='TheBigKahuna wrote:


djharley']

Well i will have to dissagree, he may be better at one end but definetly not the other end. Gleason is far better inthe d-end and so was Corvo, those 2 were our shut down d-men,..........

  
It's THOSE comments that are so laughably out of the ballpark, that I see it's pointless to even try and talk hockey with you. Corvo has NEVER been a shutdown defenseman....ever, in his career. What games are you watching? laugh.gif

Have you ever heard of "AO" from the Caps,,go back and look at who shut him down last year..then get back to me,,,(you hockey god you!If you say so yourself!!)    Take a pill while washing down your own opinion!! and don't choke on it!!laugh.gifrolleyes.gif

  

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