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Canes 2010 general off season talk

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Hi everyone,

I was listening to the XM NHL station today, and there was a a replay of an interview with JR.  He was talking about all of the good young prospects right now, but then made a comment that during the cup run in 2006, they made some trades that left the cupboard (of prospects) bear for a while.  I wasn't following the Canes that closely then.  Does anyone remember off hand what prospects we gave up, and have any of them panned out in other organizations?

Thanks!

I wasn't listening either but I'm 99% sure that TSA is correct. We didn't have a 1st round pick in the '06 draft. I remember we gave up Jesse Boulerice and maybe someone else for Doug Weight in Janurary that year. Boulerice is famous for being on the wrong end of a one-punch knockout fight in Dallas. 

According to Wiki, for Recchi we gave up Niklas Nordgren and Krystofer Kolonas, that was at the trading deadline. Neither of those two have really done much in the NHL.

Can't remember any other trades that year at the moment. I think the Weight trade may have included our first round pick that year.

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to change the subject, can we get a proper goal song? The random jumble of 10 year old films is fun once in a while, but really need to have a kick-a song after we score a goal. We use to do song 2 from blur, but that's pretty cliche... any thoughts... Bored, nothing else going on... tongue.gif

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As I've said all along, I have no great expectations about this upcoming season.  I just want these young players to get a chance to prove they belong.   I do think its going to be alot a fun watching this new look team....that is if you can get past a few losses here and there.

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[quote name='legend-1 wrote:


krad']Does anybody feel like venturing a guess on what the our chances might be this season?

lol that no one wanted to comment on this...Well we can't have that.

I've laid out the case for "a lot of unprovens", which was (and is) my argument for one more veteran up front, of which Matt Cullen would have been my pick. Anyway, that's not happening, so barring any last minute deals (keep an eye on Babchuk), we go to battle with a very unproven #3 center and a lot of question marks up on the 2nd and 3rd line wingers. Further, we have a very offensive minded defense, which could cut either way. So, if there are questions, there could also be good answers, so here's my "glass half full scenario".

While we really don't have an NHL-leading first line, we are decent and we do have a bonefide star in Staal. After  the numbers he put up last year and watching him in the Boston and NJ series I think Jokinen is legit on the first line. And if Ruutu can stay healthy he can play on the top line without the opposition busting into laughter. Ruutu had 26 goals two years ago. So, Staal should pot 35, Jokinen 25, Ruutu 20+. That's not bad.

Second line. Chad LaRose. I really like Chad as a scrapper, but also have maintained that while not the most graceful NHLer in the leauge, his skill is real and the 20 goals was not a fluke. So that's solid second line stuff. Not an All-Star, but solid. Sutter may slip from 20 goals, but I don't think he will. If he has added strength and weight, he should if anything be better. He is not a sophomore, so no slump. I would lay odds that LaRose and Sutter will net 40 goals between them. Yuri Tlusty: now that's the pure question mark. If he is going to play on the second line he is going to need to produce. Personally I think he can, but I'm far less confident than with Sutter/LaRose. However, IF Tlusty finds his offensive game, and if LaRose and Sutter hit their potential, we will have a decent second line. 

Third Line. Full blown question marks everywhere. On the other hand we have about 12 guys who could get a shot on this line. This line could be rotating door of chance and doom. If guys like Boychuk and even Cole struggle, look for Dalpe, Bowman, et. all to get shots. The upside of this is that it could keep most of the team from getting complacent. Also, we might discover a guy who would never have gotten a chance otherwise. Say Bowman comes up and shines, and goes on to have a great year.  Something like that. I have a good feeling about Nash. 

Third line center has been discussed, but there is a lot of potential there with Skinner, Nash, Dalpe, Matsumoto, one of those guys could rise to the occasion. Boychuk. I still think he can be Whitney eventually. It took Whitney about 3 full years to put up 17 goals and 5 years to break 20. If Boychuk can net 15 from the 3rd line, that would be a good year. Cole? Well there's always the chance that he finds his offense, but he will pressure and hit and create some chances if nothing else. Cole certainly has the potential to have 20 goals. If he does? We look a lot better all of the sudden. 

Fourth line: Well not that we care too much, but with Sammy and Kosto there, we have a lot of depth. Still Sammy's main role would be to show that he still has it and become trade bait. I like bringing Samson up here and Dwyer centering. 

On defense. If it stays as it is we will be a touch subpar on the defending part, though probably not as bad as some think. Really only Babchuk has the potential for full-on embarrassment in our end, and maybe he's improved in that part of his game. Gleason is strong. Corvo decent. Pitkanen underrated in our end. McBain decent. Carson and Harrison passable.

The stunning upside to our defense is their offense. Babchuk's freaky shot is for real. Pitkanen and Corvo are high skilled offensive guys, and all indications are that McBain will end up being as good or better than all of them. Those 4 guys could easily lead the league in goals from the top 4 defensemen. That could take some pressure off our forwards, and compensate for a few more goals allowed.

So, if our guys live up to their potential up front and the defense scores as much as it should, and plays at least respectably in our end, we will have enough scoring to compete. So the last piece any team needs to be good:

Goalie: If Cam is healthy we are good to go. If the good Cam and the healthy Cam shows up, we will really have the chance to have a surprising season. If his back is good, I think the good Cam is now the only Cam. So as long as he's healthy we have an elite goalie. Peters has shown signs of decent ability, another somewhat of a question mark, but at back up he should be ok.

Intangible. A young, spirited team full of guys fighting for jobs could ignite the passions of a Cole and/or Sammy, and if the team can win a few games that they should have lost, they could find a winning spirit with a lot of energy. If Staal and Ward are healthy and in good form....they can both steal games and keep us in games. 

So, the President's cup is not likely, but if key guys can bring their best, and a couple of young guns find their game and Staal and Ward stay mostly healthy, we really could sneak up on a lot of teams. And yes, I really think we could make the playoffs. That is a very half full glass.

Further this team is suddenly loaded with minor league depth. Enough to even consider a mid season trade of a prospect if we start to settle down our future team. 

If nothing else, we do know that we will make the All-Star game.

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I have to admit, before the draft, I was not overly optimistic. It seemed that up until that point, all the moves being made were geared to save money, even if it was at the expense of the team being competitive. I had three main concerns:

1) To get down to the salary numbers that were being mentioned, there would be too much reliance on young, unproved players.

2) With several youngsters already coming up from Charlotte, there was not enough depth to provide the player-rotation being proposed, or to provide decent back-up for injuries.

3) If all went well, the offense could get by, but the defense was too thin even in the best case scenario.

As things stand now, I am more optimistic, and believe there is at least a chance of making the playoffs:

1) Salaries have not (at this point) been cut as drastically as first projected, leaving the team thin (but not anemic) on veterans.

2) Trades at the draft brought in several players that provide closer to NHL ready depth - with more players now able to be brought in to rotate other players out, or to fill in for injured players.

3) Corvo.

Sure, there are still a lot of question marks, and several of those will have to be answered in a positive way for significant success, but at least now it looks like a team that can succeed. If they will, is up to the players, as in the end it always is.

On a relatively unrelated note, I was playing with numbers, and worked out what I will call the "production rate". This is just (goals + points) / minutes played. (Goals counting twice what assists count.) Keeping it that simple, of course, penalizes players who log a lot of PK minutes, and unduly rewards players who play a lot of PP time (at least in theory wink.gif) So I then separated out even strength numbers and power play numbers.

I also multiplied the results by 60. While one could argue that the reason for this is that there are 60 minutes in a game, or even just 60 minutes in a hour, the simple truth is that it was necessary to multiply the results by something to get an easier number to read. For even strength numbers, I also extrapolated it out to the equivalent of the player playing 20 minutes a game in all 82 games, to come up with a somewhat (vaguely) relevant number.

So, with the possibility (no matter how small) that someone else might have some interest, here are the results for the forwards who played last year and are on track to play this year:

EVEN STRENGTH:

Staal       3.45 (94.3)
Jokinen     3.43 (93.8)
Sutter      2.97 (81.2)
LaRose      2.94 (80.4)
Ruutu       2.67 (73.0)
Samsonov    2.56 (70.0)
Cole        2.54 (69.4)
Boychuk     2.12 (57.9)
Tlusty      2.00 (54.7)
Dwyer       1.80 (49.2)
Kostopoulos 1.72 (47.0)
Bowman      1.28 (35.0)

A few notes:

- Bowman only had 94 even strength minutes (with 1 goal), so not a big enough sample to mean much.

- This obviously doesn't account for the time that was played hurt, or with "bad" line-mates, etc., so take from it what you will.

POWER PLAY:

(Including the percent increase from the player's even strength production rate.)

Bowman      8.57 (670%)
Jokinen     7.47 (218%)
Staal       7.35 (213%)
Sutter      6.52 (220%)
Ruutu       6.30 (236%)
Samsonov    3.29 (129%)
Cole        3.24 (128%)
Boychuk     2.86 (135%)

Notes:

- LaRose, Kostopoulos, Tlusty, and Dwyer had no PP points. All of them were well below 20 total PP minutes.

- Bowman had one goal in 14 PP minutes and Boychuk had one assist in 21 PP minutes - so again, not a big enough sample to mean much..

- There are four players (ignoring Bowman for the reason above) who more than doubled their production rate during power plays. The others have a more modest increase. Guess who I'd like to see getting the most PP  time? wink.gif

Just for comparison, Crosby and Ovechkin:

Even strength -

Crosby      4.98 (136.1)
Ovechkin    5.47 (149.5)

Power Play -

Crosby      6.97 (140%)
Ovechkin    8.08 (148%)

And Staal, the season before:

Even strength: 3.55 (97.0)
Power Play:    6.19 (174%)

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So if I'm reading this right, then Bowman is better than Crosby, Ovechkin, and Staal on the powerplay! happy.gif 

Just kidding. That is really interesting stuff. Very optimistic for Sutter and Jokinen particularly.

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Was wondering where this thread went...looks like the board conversion didn't keep the order of most recently used threads. At least it looks like the post order was maintained.

Carrying on...

Remkin, I wonder if you watched the rest of the BOS-CAR series, and if so have anything to add to your analysis re: Samsonov. He was pretty key in those last 5 games. I can't see him starting the year on the 4th line, myself.

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Was wondering where this thread went...looks like the board conversion didn't keep the order of most recently used threads. At least it looks like the post order was maintained.

Carrying on...

Remkin, I wonder if you watched the rest of the BOS-CAR series, and if so have anything to add to your analysis re: Samsonov. He was pretty key in those last 5 games. I can't see him starting the year on the 4th line, myself.

First, I must admit that I only watched the games we won. But Sammy had a huge goal in game 7, and in general was good.

The problem for Sammy is that he had the entirety of last year as his follow-up. Compare and contrast that with, say Jokinen.

You know when Sammy first came over and started his razzle-dazzle it was awesome. But more importantly he converted more of that flash into points. Over the last 3 seasons he has scored 14,16, 14 goals and his +/- has gone +6, -8, -15. His assists dropped from 33 to 15. Some may say that his -15 was on a losing team, but there only 5 players on the team with worse than -5 for the season.

I agree that the 4th line is an odd place for Sammy. Generally we seen grinders who hit and check tightly on the 4th line. Sammy is the antithesis of that. You never know what kind of chemistry he might find with his 4th line mates, but if he stays there for long he will probably just get worse as his confidence slides right off the table.

Our best bet is probably to start him higher up, say third, or even second line, and hope he produces enough to trade him. At this point I suspect that JR could not get much of anything for him and with all these kids projected, he wants a little insurance if they don't produce. So, ultimately Sammy's value on the 4th line is that he can slide up during a game or for a run of games. But I think the longer he languishes on the fourth line the worse his game will be and things will spiral down. Sammy would really benefit hugely from getting a few early points on the board.

Sammy (and to some extent Cole) is going to have to show something in camp and pre-season. If Sammy looks so-so and the likes of Tlusty, Boychuk, Bowman, Nash, etc show great things, I would not be surprised to see Sammy gone before, or soon after opening day. We won't get much for him though. At this point he is insurance and small trade bait.

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During preseason, I'd like to see Sammy (his usual left wing position) with Skinner\Nash and Boychuk\Bowman. Give him someone to skate with. Anybody who can skate into the blueline at the same time. I haven't completely given up on Sammy. He still has the speed and can handle the puck. Ya never know.

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Sammy did have a tough year last year, but you also have to look at how he was used. In the last two years, he's played most of his time with Brindy, and much of that in the fourth line slot. Not going to see good stats that way no matter what.

I suspect Sammy will start on the third line, at least, maybe higher depending on camp/pre-season. That gives him a chance against the weaker D pairings. Chemistry with linemates is the big key for him, it seems. Get the right match up and good ice time and I think he can get 40+ points.

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A 40+ year would be nice from Sammy. So much will depend how MO uses him. I suspect he will need to get off to a fast start this year if he wants third line minutes.

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Well Sammy did put up 75 and 70 over two seasons back in 1999,2000.

OK then not much BUT in his first 38 games with us he was playing at that same level with 32 points in 38 games. Maybe he can find it again.

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Well Sammy did put up 75 and 70 over two seasons back in 1999,2000.

OK then not much BUT in his first 38 games with us he was playing at that same level with 32 points in 38 games. Maybe he can find it again.

In a sense he is like most of the young players on the team, with potential upside for this season, but on a much shorter leash since he's over 30.

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Any idea who is going to step up and win some faceoffs this year? We were miserable last year, coming in at 25th in the league at around 48% FO win percentage.

Of those that took a significant number of faceoffs (> 800), Brindy (58.8%) led the way in faceoffs won, followed by Cullen (49.1%), Sutter (49.0%, and Staal (41.8%).

Obviously we need Staal to improve in this area. Hopefully Sutter can do the same. Beyond that Jokinen was pretty good (51.3%) but he only took around 265 faceoffs.

I'm not trying to overplay this stat but it is one area of concern coming into the season, particularly at third line center and the first and second powerplay units.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Any idea who is going to step up and win some faceoffs this year? We were miserable last year, coming in at 25th in the league at around 48% FO win percentage.

Of those that took a significant number of faceoffs (> 800), Brindy (58.8%) led the way in faceoffs won, followed by Cullen (49.1%), Sutter (49.0%, and Staal (41.8%).

Obviously we need Staal to improve in this area. Hopefully Sutter can do the same. Beyond that Jokinen was pretty good (51.3%) but he only took around 265 faceoffs.

I'm not trying to overplay this stat but it is one area of concern coming into the season, particularly at third line center and the first and second powerplay units.

I think that's a great point. If the opponent gets more free chances to control the puck, that has to translate into at least some goals and some wins. The scary thing is taking out Brindy's %, we will drop even lower.

This is a brutal weakness in Staal's game somewhat akin to Shaq's free throws. I know we want our center in the center of the ice from the start, but what about having Jokinen take key face offs then rotate over to the wing? Clearly some face-offs are more crucial than others and I would think possession is more important than positioning. Heck Staal's played wing and Jussi's played center for long stretches.

One also has to wonder about third line center. It is pretty unusual for a rookie to win a lot of face offs. So if we are losing a ton of faceoffs on line 1 and line 3 and line 2 is a wash, it could be an issue.

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I think Sutter will improve. Sutter seems to rise to the occasion. Ruutu is also a pretty good face off man. If our young guys falter I wouldn't be surprised to see him play some center this year. But it is yet another question without an answer.

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I think Sutter will improve. Sutter seems to rise to the occasion. Ruutu is also a pretty good face off man. If our young guys falter I wouldn't be surprised to see him play some center this year. But it is yet another question without an answer.

I don't think Ruutu is a faceoff man. He only took 47 faceoffs last year and 37 the year before. Likely this is not his fortee. The third line center is going to have to pick up some slack in the circle, whoever that will be.

I'm more worried about the powerplay. That's where we really need to improve.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I don't think Ruutu is a faceoff man. He only took 47 faceoffs last year and 37 the year before. Likely this is not his fortee. The third line center is going to have to pick up some slack in the circle, whoever that will be.

I'm more worried about the powerplay. That's where we really need to improve.

Your probable right about Ruutu. Put a lot of pressure on the young centers but so be it. I agree with you about the power play worries. You really need to control the puck on the PP. Until we see a couple of games I guess it will be a worry.

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This is a brutal weakness in Staal's game somewhat akin to Shaq's free throws.

It's tough picking holes in the man's game, as great a player as he is, but I would add that I would love for him to also find that move one-on-one with the goalie. :dizzy:

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I maintain that Staal is the real deal franchise star caliber player. But on face offs there's just no avoiding his terribleness. Of the 84 players in the league who took enough draws to make the list last year, Eric Staal is #84.

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Ok...dumb question:

What constitutes a face off win in that %

That your team retained the puck or that you initiated the control from the puck drop?

Yes Brindy won lots of faceoffs...but lots of those may have ended in the other team's control...

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