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2010 NHL Entry Draft Thread

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[quote name='remkin wrote:


Law-Dawg']Cool site with some mocks updated on May 23...

We're all over the place at #7 and one mock has us picking #6...Looks like if the big 3 D-Men go early we'll have a really good shot at El Nino or Connolly...El Nino is a no-brainer if he's available at 7. 

That is a great site, thanks for posting Law-Dawg.

El Nino has certainly moved up the board. Ironically, of the 5 mock drafts updated most recently, 3/5 have El Nino at #7. (One has him at #4 and one at #10). Just reading the comments it seems pretty unlikely that one of the top 3 dmen will be around at #7. I still like Connolly if we can grab him.

Thanks Remkin...I watched the analysis of Nino from the Oilers draft website and that kid seems the perfect fit for us...compared to Erik Cole...a young, healthy, Pre-Orpik version of Colsey to play alongside of Staal for the next several years (cross fingers) is exactly the player this team needs.  If we can resign Whit we'd have a very formidable lineup...

Whit Staal Nino

Jussi Sutter Ruutu

Boychuck _____  LaRose  (Center Options to include Dalpe, Cullen and I'd love for us to take a shot at signing Saku Koivu for a 1 or 2 year deal)

Kosto  Dwyer Tlusty

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Saku? Just what this team needs, more soft small forwards. Especially ones who are in the twilight of their careers, AND will be looking for a retirement contract. Not going to happen. JR will take a flyer on somebody's 4th line fodder first.

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Saku? Just what this team needs, more soft small forwards. Especially ones who are in the twilight of their careers, AND will be looking for a retirement contract. Not going to happen. JR will take a flyer on somebody's 4th line fodder first.

Find me a UFA with a better face off win percentage (an area where we will need serious help if Brindy's gone); he'd help on the PP and Kill; provide excellent leadership; and a 1 or 2 year deal to allow Dalpe a little more time to develop in Charlotte.  I think he's ideal. 

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While he wouldn't be my first pick, Jeff Halpern would be much better in that role than Saku.

I would prefer one of these guys as the 2nd/3rd C, and they all made less money than Saku last year:

Matt Cullen 32 OTT $2,800,000
Tomas Plekanec 26 MON $2,750,000
Matthew Lombardi 27 PHO $2,350,000
I'm not saying the money or interest is there for any of them.  These are just guys that I would prefer over SK.




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While he wouldn't be my first pick, Jeff Halpern would be much better in that role than Saku.

I would prefer one of these guys as the 2nd/3rd C, and they all made less money than Saku last year:

Matt Cullen 32 OTT $2,800,000
Tomas Plekanec 26 MON $2,750,000
Matthew Lombardi 27 PHO $2,350,000
I'm not saying the money or interest is there for any of them.  These are just guys that I would prefer over SK.

Plekanec and Lombardi both had great years and will both probably be at least second line centers next season and priced out of the 'Canes 3rd line slot. 

If we're going UFA for the third line center spot, then I think we're looking at a group that more likely includes names like Manny Malhotra, Jim Slater, Dominic Moore and maybe Rob Niedermayer.

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[quote name='lewberts wrote:


Barnacles9']

While he wouldn't be my first pick, Jeff Halpern would be much better in that role than Saku.

I would prefer one of these guys as the 2nd/3rd C, and they all made less money than Saku last year:
Matt Cullen32OTT$2,800,000
Tomas Plekanec26MON$2,750,000
Matthew Lombardi27PHO$2,350,000
I'm not saying the money or interest is there for any of them.  These are just guys that I would prefer over SK.

Plekanec and Lombardi both had great years and will both probably be at least second line centers next season and priced out of the 'Canes 3rd line slot. 

If we're going UFA for the third line center spot, then I think we're looking at a group that more likely includes names like Manny Malhotra, Jim Slater, Dominic Moore and maybe Rob Niedermayer.

Niedermayer is an interesting option...very good in the circle but does he have the speed we want to play with LaRose and likely Boychuck?  Malhotra is also good in the circle but at 220 lbs he seems quite the bruiser and speed is a question again; also he's also only 30 and would likely want at least a 3 year deal.  If we sign someone it will likely be a stopgap sign to give Dalpe a year or two at the most to develop in Charlotte. 

  

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I just hope like hell whoever we pick @ #7 will have a positive impact with this team. While it's obviously no #1 or 2, 7 is still pretty valuable. It really bothers me that until just recently most of out first round picks have been blunders and players that were picked in some cases just after us have turned out to be pretty decent.

Heck in 1998 we coulda picked Alex Taungay, Simon Gagne, or Scott Gomez and instead we got Jeff Heerma whom only played with us for 10 games

In 1999 we coulda picked Barrett Jackman or Martin Havlet instead of David Tanabe.

2001 was a waste with Igor Knyanzez not making it to the NHL. RJ Umberger, Shaone Morrison, and Colby Armstrong were available.

2005 with the #3, Jack Johnson, think we all know that story.

So again, I'd hate to see us pick someone who'll probably be a journeyman and/or a minor leaguer who'll eventually go overseas while picks just barely in front of us will pan out pretty well. Especially since we have a top 10 pick.

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Yea we did have a pretty rough early drafting history.  Our drafting has definitely become better as of late.  We must have a few more and better scouts than before.

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It would be interesting to see some sort of draft batting average weighted by picking order for each team over say 3, 5, 10  years. Does really seem that we've done a bit better lately. Any one know of anything like that out there?

Every team has misses. Every year there are guys that a bunch of teams "could have had" if only they'd have known. It really seems that the top two picks are almost always stars, then it starts to get increasingly more risky as you go down the draft. Thus all my earlier rants about how a top two pick was more important than a few wins at the end of  the year.....OK sorry, no more about that. Just sayin...

Picking at #7 is kind of interesting at least. There are very good arguments for trading up, down, or holding at 7. While I'd rather lock in Tyler or Tyler, at least there could be some intrigue to the process and we ought to get a very good player.

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Here is drafts from 2000-2004.  Lottery picks are 1-14, mid is 15-22, and 23-30 is late.  I gave the successful picks based on games played and stats. A lottery pick isnt a success if he playing on the 4th line at 8 mins a game.   I put the successful picks in parentheses.  At the bottom I put missed out draft picks by teams.  Winners would be Washington as they still have most of their good picks, ATL with those great picks but only have one guy left,

Nashville has drafted well, and Pitt has all 5 of their picks on the roster and successful.  The losers where Dallas as they had 4 later round picks and only got Ott out of the deal and the Rangers faired worse with 3 lottery picks and 1 mid pick and 0 successful guys

ANA Picks  5     Lottery  1/3   Mid 2/2     Late  (lupul, getzlaf, perry)

ATL  Picks  6     Lottery  4/5   Mid 0/0     Late 1/1 (Heatley, Kovalchuk, lehtonen, slater, coburn)

BOS  Picks  5     Lottery  0/1   Mid 2/2     Late 0/2  (Morrisonn, burns)

BUF  Picks  6     Lottery 3/3    Mid  1/3    Late  (ballard, paille, vanek, stafford)

CAR  Picks  4     Lottery  1/2   Mid 0/1     Late 1/1 (ward,  staal, ) Ladd hasn’t been 4 material

CHI  Picks  7      Lottery  3/5   Mid 0/1     Late 1/1 (ruutu, seabrook, barker)

COL Picks  3      Lottery  0/1   Mid 1/1     Late 0/1 (wolski)

CLG Picks  5      Lottery 2/4    Mid  0/0    Late 0/1 (kobasew, phaneuf)

CLB Picks  5      Lottery  4/5   Mid  0/0    Late 0/0  (Klesla, Leclaire, Nash, zherdev, )

DAL Picks  4      Lottery 0/0    Mid 0/0     Late 1/4 (ott,)

DET  Picks  1     Lottery  0/0    Mid  0/0    Late 1/1 (kronwall

EDM Picks  7     Lottery  1/3   Mid 0/3     Late 0/1 (hemsky,)

FLA  Picks   7    Lottery  3/5   Mid 0/0     Late 0/2  (weiss, bouwmeester, horton)

LA   Picks  8      Lottery 1/2    Mid 2/3     Late 0/3  (frolov, grebeshov, brown)

MIN  Picks  5     Lottery  3/4   Mid 1/1     Late (gaborik, koivu, bouchard, burns)

MON Picks  6     Lottery  3/3   Mid 0/2     Late 0/1  (hainsey, komisarek, kostitsyn)

NAS  Picks   5    Lottery  4/4   Mid  0/1    Late (hartnell, hamhuis, upshall, suter)

NJ   Picks  4       Lottery  0/0   Mid  3/3    Late 0/1 (hale, parise, zajac)

NYI  Picks  5      Lottery  2/2   Mid  2/3    Late (dipetrio, torres, bergenheim, nilsson)

NYR  Picks  4     Lottery  0/3   Mid 0/1     Late 0/0

PHI   Picks  5      Lottery  2/2   Mid 0/0     Late 2/3  (Williams, Pitkanen, carter, richards)

PIT   Picks   5     Lottery  3/3   Mid  2/2    Late (orpik, Armstrong, whitney, fluery, malkin)

PNX Picks   5     Lottery 1/2   Mid  0/3    Late (wheeler)

OTT  Picks   6    Lottery  1/1   Mid  1/2    Late 2/3  (volchenkov, spezza, gleason, meszaros)

SNJ  Picks    5    Lottery 1/1    Mid  2/3    Late 0/1  (Goc, michalek, bernier)

STL  Picks    3    Lottery 0/0    Mid  0/1    Late 0/2

TOR  Picks   3    Lottery 0/0    Mid 1/1     Late 2/2 (boyes, Colaiacovo, steen, )

TMB  Picks   3    Lottery  0/2   Mid 0/0     Late 0/1

VAN  Picks  4     Lottery  0/0   Mid 1/1     Late 2/3 (umberger, kesler)

WAS  Picks  9     Lottery 3/4    Mid  1/2    Late 2/3  (semin, Higgins, fehr, ovechkin, Schultz, green )

 

2000: Bos, TMB, CLG, CHI, ANA, COL, BUF, MON, EDM, PHX could have had Frolov, Volchenkov, Hale, Ott, Boyes, Williams, or Kronwall.

 

2001: last 6 teams could have had Roy or Jackman that were picked in early 2nd round

 

2002: edm, was, ott, phx x 2, buf, chi, nyi, missed out on ward and steen

 

2003: NYR at 12 missed some great players like brown, seabrook, bernier, parise, and perry, getzlaf

 

2004:  Probably the weakest draft except for the top 2 guys.  Everyone from Car down missed on Zajac or Green

 

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Every team has misses. Every year there are guys that a bunch of teams "could have had" if only they'd have known.
Scouting is an inexact science, but it's not pure luck either.  The harder you work, the luckier you are. 

Here is a list of who the Hurricanes have drafted since they moved to North Carolina - and who was

drafted  in the very next spot ... often at the same position .....

1997 .......Carolina drafts D Nikos Tselios #22 ..... San Jose takes D Scott Hannan 23rd.

1998........Carolina drafts F Jeff Heerema at #11 ... Colorado takes F Alex Tanguay 12th.

1999........Carolina drafts D David Tanabe #16...... St. Louis takes D Barret Jackman 17th.

2000........Carolina trades their #1.

2001........Carolina drafts D Igor Knyazev #15 .......Vancouver takes F RJ Umberger at #16.

2002 and 2003 brought us Cam Ward and Eric Staal ...... so ..... no complaints there.

2004 ...... Carolina trades up to draft Andrew Ladd 4th overall .... Blake Wheeler goes at #5.

Obviously, the Hurricanes have drafted better in the last few years, but several bad drafts in a

row can be hard to overcome - or, at the least, an unnecessary inconvenience.  Had the 'Canes

made a better choice just once over those years things could be somewhat different today. 

Everyone makes mistakes, but if you can sort of keep it to a minimum ..... smile.gif

    

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Here is drafts from 2000-2004.  Lottery picks are 1-14, mid is 15-22, and 23-30 is late.  I gave the successful picks based on games played and stats. A lottery pick isnt a success if he playing on the 4th line at 8 mins a game.   I put the successful picks in parentheses.  At the bottom I put missed out draft picks by teams.  Winners would be Washington as they still have most of their good picks, ATL with those great picks but only have one guy left,

Nashville has drafted well, and Pitt has all 5 of their picks on the roster and successful.  The losers where Dallas as they had 4 later round picks and only got Ott out of the deal and the Rangers faired worse with 3 lottery picks and 1 mid pick and 0 successful guys

ANA Picks  5     Lottery  1/3   Mid 2/2     Late  (lupul, getzlaf, perry)

ATL  Picks  6     Lottery  4/5   Mid 0/0     Late 1/1 (Heatley, Kovalchuk, lehtonen, slater, coburn)

BOS  Picks  5     Lottery  0/1   Mid 2/2     Late 0/2  (Morrisonn, burns)

BUF  Picks  6     Lottery 3/3    Mid  1/3    Late  (ballard, paille, vanek, stafford)

CAR  Picks  4     Lottery  1/2   Mid 0/1     Late 1/1 (ward,  staal, ) Ladd hasn’t been 4 material

CHI  Picks  7      Lottery  3/5   Mid 0/1     Late 1/1 (ruutu, seabrook, barker)

COL Picks  3      Lottery  0/1   Mid 1/1     Late 0/1 (wolski)

CLG Picks  5      Lottery 2/4    Mid  0/0    Late 0/1 (kobasew, phaneuf)

CLB Picks  5      Lottery  4/5   Mid  0/0    Late 0/0  (Klesla, Leclaire, Nash, zherdev, )

DAL Picks  4      Lottery 0/0    Mid 0/0     Late 1/4 (ott,)

DET  Picks  1     Lottery  0/0    Mid  0/0    Late 1/1 (kronwall

EDM Picks  7     Lottery  1/3   Mid 0/3     Late 0/1 (hemsky,)

FLA  Picks   7    Lottery  3/5   Mid 0/0     Late 0/2  (weiss, bouwmeester, horton)

LA   Picks  8      Lottery 1/2    Mid 2/3     Late 0/3  (frolov, grebeshov, brown)

MIN  Picks  5     Lottery  3/4   Mid 1/1     Late (gaborik, koivu, bouchard, burns)

MON Picks  6     Lottery  3/3   Mid 0/2     Late 0/1  (hainsey, komisarek, kostitsyn)

NAS  Picks   5    Lottery  4/4   Mid  0/1    Late (hartnell, hamhuis, upshall, suter)

NJ   Picks  4       Lottery  0/0   Mid  3/3    Late 0/1 (hale, parise, zajac)

NYI  Picks  5      Lottery  2/2   Mid  2/3    Late (dipetrio, torres, bergenheim, nilsson)

NYR  Picks  4     Lottery  0/3   Mid 0/1     Late 0/0

PHI   Picks  5      Lottery  2/2   Mid 0/0     Late 2/3  (Williams, Pitkanen, carter, richards)

PIT   Picks   5     Lottery  3/3   Mid  2/2    Late (orpik, Armstrong, whitney, fluery, malkin)

PNX Picks   5     Lottery 1/2   Mid  0/3    Late (wheeler)

OTT  Picks   6    Lottery  1/1   Mid  1/2    Late 2/3  (volchenkov, spezza, gleason, meszaros)

SNJ  Picks    5    Lottery 1/1    Mid  2/3    Late 0/1  (Goc, michalek, bernier)

STL  Picks    3    Lottery 0/0    Mid  0/1    Late 0/2

TOR  Picks   3    Lottery 0/0    Mid 1/1     Late 2/2 (boyes, Colaiacovo, steen, )

TMB  Picks   3    Lottery  0/2   Mid 0/0     Late 0/1

VAN  Picks  4     Lottery  0/0   Mid 1/1     Late 2/3 (umberger, kesler)

WAS  Picks  9     Lottery 3/4    Mid  1/2    Late 2/3  (semin, Higgins, fehr, ovechkin, Schultz, green )

 

2000: Bos, TMB, CLG, CHI, ANA, COL, BUF, MON, EDM, PHX could have had Frolov, Volchenkov, Hale, Ott, Boyes, Williams, or Kronwall.

 

2001: last 6 teams could have had Roy or Jackman that were picked in early 2nd round

 

2002: edm, was, ott, phx x 2, buf, chi, nyi, missed out on ward and steen

 

2003: NYR at 12 missed some great players like brown, seabrook, bernier, parise, and perry, getzlaf

 

2004:  Probably the weakest draft except for the top 2 guys.  Everyone from Car down missed on Zajac or Green

 

Wow. That's some great data gocanes0506! Surely shows how some guys are missed by a lot of teams. I guess my question would be where you rank the Canes in those drafts?

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[quote name='davidrabbit wrote:


remkin']Every team has misses. Every year there are guys that a bunch of teams "could have had" if only they'd have known.

Scouting is an inexact science, but it's not pure luck either.  The harder you work, the luckier you are. 

Here is a list of who the Hurricanes have drafted since they moved to North Carolina - and who was

drafted  in the very next spot ... often at the same position .....

1997 .......Carolina drafts D Nikos Tselios #22 ..... San Jose takes D Scott Hannan 23rd.

1998........Carolina drafts F Jeff Heerema at #11 ... Colorado takes F Alex Tanguay 12th.

1999........Carolina drafts D David Tanabe #16...... St. Louis takes D Barret Jackman 17th.

2000........Carolina trades their #1.

2001........Carolina drafts D Igor Knyazev #15 .......Vancouver takes F RJ Umberger at #16.

2002 and 2003 brought us Cam Ward and Eric Staal ...... so ..... no complaints there.

2004 ...... Carolina trades up to draft Andrew Ladd 4th overall .... Blake Wheeler goes at #5.

Obviously, the Hurricanes have drafted better in the last few years, but several bad drafts in a

row can be hard to overcome - or, at the least, an unnecessary inconvenience.  Had the 'Canes

made a better choice just once over those years things could be somewhat different today. 

Everyone makes mistakes, but if you can sort of keep it to a minimum ..... smile.gif

    Yes, this does suggest that we have missed the boat in quite a few years.

So much more important to get it right this year.

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From Luke's N&O interview with PK and JR:

Karmanos also discussed Seguin, who plays for the Karmanos-owned Plymouth Whalers of the Ontario Hockey League, and is expected to be one of the top two picks in the draft later this month. The other top-two pick will be Taylor Hall, who plays just across the border in Windsor, Ontario. Karmanos has seen both play a number of times.

While Carolina's amateur scouts went over their draft board upstairs at the RBC Center -- Hurricanes president and general manager Jim Rutherford was with the scouts and did not attend the meeting with the N&O -- Karmanos downplayed the possibility the Hurricanes might use their cornucopia of draft picks to move up from the seventh pick in pursuit of Seguin.

"When you see a player play the number of games I’ve seen Tyler play, you also see the things he doesn’t do," Karmanos said. "If you don’t see him and just read the press clippings, you’d think, ‘Greatest player since Stevie Yzerman.’ Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin ... are rated one and two in the draft and I’m sort of glad we don’t have to make that pick. It’s a very, very deep draft with three or four other outstanding players."

Full Article Here

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well if you go off of the number of picks, how successful the team was with the picks, and the value of picks I would rate them:

1 PIT- Cant get much better than that 5 that are still with the team

2 WAS- 66% good picks and green, semin, and ovechkin are a great 3 to get and most of 6 are still with team.

3 Atlanta 83%

4 CBJ 80%

5 NJ 75% they got great players for their lower picks

6 NAS 80% Nashville is a touch pick as all 4 of their picks are good on the verge of great but they are getting ready to lose there 3rd guy.

7 MIN 80% rate them below CBJ as they lost they best pick in gaborik

8 PHI 80% Richards and Carter are good for them.  Pitkanen and Williams arent with them team anymore

9 BUF 67%

10 ANA 60%

11 SNJ 60%

12 CAR 50%

12 MON 50% its hard to say whether Staal and Ward or Hainsey, Komisarek and kostitsyn are a better value as staal hasnt got close to the 05-06 #s

14VAN 50%

15 CHI 42%

16 FLA 42% rate FLA below CHI as they lost their top pick in bouwmeester

17 OTT 67% there 4 picks have been great but they are getting ready to lose the 4th of the group

18 NYI 80% their 4 picks have been successful but not as successful as they hope and 2 of them arent on the team 

19 BOS 40%

20 TOR 100% great value for their picks not one is still on the roster though

21 CAL 40%

22 LA 38%

23 COL 33%

24 DET 100% Kronwall was successful but cant put them up at the top for 1 1st rounder

25 DAL 25%

26 PHX 20%

27 EDM 14%

28 STL 0% atleast one of their guys played for the team

29 TMB 0% in the same boat as NYR as their guys didnt even make it out of europe

29 NYR 0%

I'll probably do 2005-2007 this weekend and updated my completely opinionated ratings then as well.  I dont think I can go farther than 2007 as so many of the 08 and 09 guys are still developing.  Should see Carolina go up with those 3 drafts. 

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2 more mock drafts.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=530761

The Eastern Conference Scout has us on Connolly. The Western scout on Brumistrov. El Nino is 6 and 10.

Cleary after #5 it is all over the place. If we can't move up to #5, maybe trade down.

Updated the link. Just have to click on "Eastern Conference Scout" and "Western Conference Scout".

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Some good draft day insight from Paul Branecky:

Paul's TTS Blog: Draft Plans Taking Shape

If you read between the lines in this article...Canes will stay at #7 & either pick one of the top three defenseman if one falls to us, or one of the second tier forwards if the top three D are gone. I would be happy with one of the top 3 D, or Nino!

Connolly injuries scare me. Tarasenko (well I just don't see JR drafting a Russian early). Skinner who is a natural goal scorer(70 goals in 84 Games) could be a good pick as well, but he needs to work on his D, and skating.

Here is a link to a mock draft with scouting reports on the players:

http://nhl.fanhouse.com/2.../01/2010-nhl-mock-draft/

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In looking at a lot of the mocks I am beginning to think we will likely grab Nino or Connolly at #7 and then start packaging those 2nd rounders to move up to grab Pysyk or Forbort in the mid part of the 1st round.  If we could pull that off, I would be very pleased. 

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In looking at a lot of the mocks I am beginning to think we will likely grab Nino or Connolly at #7 and then start packaging those 2nd rounders to move up to grab Pysyk or Forbort in the mid part of the 1st round.  If we could pull that off, I would be very pleased. 

I would be happy with that, but I would take Nino over Connolly.

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well if you go off of the number of picks, how successful the team was with the picks, and the value of picks I would rate them:

1 PIT- Cant get much better than that 5 that are still with the team

2 WAS- 66% good picks and green, semin, and ovechkin are a great 3 to get and most of 6 are still with team.

3 Atlanta 83%

4 CBJ 80%

5 NJ 75% they got great players for their lower picks

6 NAS 80% Nashville is a touch pick as all 4 of their picks are good on the verge of great but they are getting ready to lose there 3rd guy.

7 MIN 80% rate them below CBJ as they lost they best pick in gaborik

8 PHI 80% Richards and Carter are good for them.  Pitkanen and Williams arent with them team anymore

9 BUF 67%

10 ANA 60%

11 SNJ 60%

12 CAR 50%

12 MON 50% its hard to say whether Staal and Ward or Hainsey, Komisarek and kostitsyn are a better value as staal hasnt got close to the 05-06 #s

14VAN 50%

15 CHI 42%

16 FLA 42% rate FLA below CHI as they lost their top pick in bouwmeester

17 OTT 67% there 4 picks have been great but they are getting ready to lose the 4th of the group

18 NYI 80% their 4 picks have been successful but not as successful as they hope and 2 of them arent on the team 

19 BOS 40%

20 TOR 100% great value for their picks not one is still on the roster though

21 CAL 40%

22 LA 38%

23 COL 33%

24 DET 100% Kronwall was successful but cant put them up at the top for 1 1st rounder

25 DAL 25%

26 PHX 20%

27 EDM 14%

28 STL 0% atleast one of their guys played for the team

29 TMB 0% in the same boat as NYR as their guys didnt even make it out of europe

29 NYR 0%

I'll probably do 2005-2007 this weekend and updated my completely opinionated ratings then as well.  I dont think I can go farther than 2007 as so many of the 08 and 09 guys are still developing.  Should see Carolina go up with those 3 drafts. 

Somehow I missed this. Nice work. Based on your data we've done alright, especially lately.

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From Paul's TTS Blog:

On each weekday between now and the first round of the NHL Entry Draft on June 25, we'll be profiling one of 10 players who could be chosen with the seventh overall pick by Carolina.  Also see: Hurricanes Draft History

Draft Profile #1: Alexander Burmistrov

http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/topic/17046?page=-1burmistrov_1_thumb.jpg

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