Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
djharley

EXPECTATIONS?

Recommended Posts

Really? Everyone's putting them from 7-12? I have this for the East.

There are four "tiers" of teams: the top seeds, which will be far and away from everyone; the middle tier, which will be a playoff lock and occupy the middle of the playoff ladder; the bubble tier, which has the teams that will fight for the last two entries into the playoffs; and the no chance tier, the teams that will need something like divine intervention to even make .500.

Top Teams: Washington/Pittsburgh

Playoff Locks: Buffalo/New Jersey/Boston/Carolina

On the Bubble: Tampa/Philadelphia/New York Rangers/Atlanta/Montreal/Ottawa

No Chance: Toronto/Florida/New York Islanders

If you forced my hand and made me pick spots...

1. Washington

2. Pittsburgh

3. Buffalo

4. New Jersey

5. Boston

6. Carolina

7. Atlanta

8. New York Rangers

-----------------

9. Philadelphia

10. Ottawa

11. Montreal

12. Tampa Bay

13. Florida

14. New York Islanders

15. Toronto

Edited by Obi-Wan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really? Everyone's putting them from 7-12? I have this for the East.

There are four "tiers" of teams: the top seeds, which will be far and away from everyone; the middle tier, which will be a playoff lock and occupy the middle of the playoff ladder; the bubble tier, which has the teams that will fight for the last two entries into the playoffs; and the no chance tier, the teams that will need something like divine intervention to even make .500.

Top Teams: Washington/Pittsburgh

Playoff Locks: Buffalo/New Jersey/Boston/Carolina

On the Bubble: Tampa/Philadelphia/New York Rangers/Atlanta/Montreal/Ottawa

No Chance: Toronto/Florida/New York Islanders

If you forced my hand and made me pick spots...

1. Washington

2. Pittsburgh

3. Buffalo

4. New Jersey

5. Boston

6. Carolina

7. Atlanta

8. New York Rangers

-----------------

9. Philadelphia

10. Ottawa

11. Montreal

12. Tampa Bay

13. Florida

14. New York Islanders

15. Toronto

I would remove Boston and Atlanta - and insert Philadelphia and Montreal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would remove Boston and Atlanta - and insert Philadelphia and Montreal

I don't think anyone can accurately predict this years Eastern conference. I think Washington falls apart, and I think Tampa surprises some people...as will the Canes. I don't think the Rangers or Devils are locks to make the playoffs either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not gonna make final standings in the Conference projections, because I lost my crystal ball.

However, this season I'm prepared for a very young, very fast exciting team. I do realize that some games we'll be left scratching our heads at what we just saw, while at others, we'll be very proud of what we saw. We WONT be the least penalized team in the NHL anymore, not even close. We will draw more penalties with the youth injection, so Mo really needs to get the PP% up. I sure hope Brindy is working with our Centers/Forwards with faceoffs...they still need some guidance.

We have a chance of making the playoffs, just based on our existing anchors, however, we're going to have to see some scoring pick up from some of our youth. Staal/Wardo can't do this by themselves. If the yutes follow young Sutter's lead, we'll be ok.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Every now and then I like to go off on a wildly optimistic rant.

I have been nervous about this year since we were lining up so little proven offensive producers up front. That is still the case. However, the potential for points is actually quite dramatic. That is the basis of this post.

While this team has really only one guy in Eric Staal who has put up substantial offensive numbers year in and year out, we do have many guys who have the potential to put up 20 goals, and at least 2 if not 3 who could put up 30+. If all of these guys hit what are not pie in the sky crazy numbers, we would have a team that puts up top 5 goals. Crazy? Yeah probably, but check it out:

Staal: 35 If he stays healthy this is a fair projection, he could easily have more.

Cole: 20 OK, Cole has not hit 20 post neck injury, but he did put up 16 in 63 games with the Oilers. He can do it.

Jussi: 25 Hit 30 last year. 7 in the playoffs prior. He has the skills. Drop it to 20 if he stays on the third line.

LaRose: 20 LaRose's skills are for real. He was injured much of last year and started producing at the end.

O'Sulliv. 25 What? Yes, his skills are 30 goal skills. If he plays on the top two lines he will hit this.

Ruutu: 20 He put up 26 in 08-09, and 14 in 54 games last year (21 projected). If stays healthy 20 is happening.

Sutter: 20 He put up 20 last year. He's stronger and better this year. He may well do better.

Skinner: 15 Skinner will be a 30 goal scorer within a couple of years, who knows, he could easily have 20 this year.

Sammy: 15 Sammy has 20 goal potential also. But he will need to be off the 4th line, and someone needs to be on it.

Kosto: 8 Historical.

Dwyer: 7 Historical.

Tlusty: 15 This is a pure guess. There is no history to work off of. Depends on the knee and playing time could be more or less.

Gleason: 7 Has shown some flashes of offense, but this would be historical average

Pitkanen: 7 Mega assist man does not light the lamp much, but will set up the other guys on this list.

Babchuk: 15 This is a high number, but he has done that in less than a full season. That shot is freaky.

Corvo: 10 He has played full seasons twice, both times: 14 goals

McBain 10 This is a big unknown, but the way he finished last year he would blow this away.

Harrison: 0 Why bother to count on any?

These guys would have to stay healthy, but even if they don't, I not even counting goals from Bowman, Dalpe, Boychuk, etc. Also whoever ends up on the 4th line? Sammy probably does 10 instead of 15.

If these guys come close to those numbers (not counting any goals from Harrison, and the call ups, and taking 5 away from Sammy for 4th line), we would put up 273 goals. Last year that would have put us #2 in the league behind Washington and ahead of Vancouver.

Now at face value that seems preposterous. But bear in mind that no one on that list is busting out a major career year other than the guys who are essentially rookies, and I have projected none of them for more than 15 goals. O'Sullivan would be beating his best year by the most, 5 goals, but LaRose and Sutter would just be matching their best years. Skinner, McBain, Tlusty are guesses, but not crazy guesses. Everyone else has done better.

All of these guys probably won't hit the mark for one reason or another, but then again, maybe Bowman or Dalpe jump in and surprise to make up for it. Given that Cam is looking back to top 5 form, we just might surprise a lot of teams this year is all I'm saying. Well that and that this team has a lot of potential.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really believe, if the 'Canes can stay healthy, it will help them play more consistent, and I could definitely see them being a 5-8 seed range if that were to happen. Also, I want to share what I think would be a really good lineup...let me know what everyone thinks, or if they think differently:

Ruutu Staal Jokinen

LaRose Sutter Cole

Samsonov Skinner Tlusty

O'Sullivan Dwyer Kostopoulos

Pitkanen Gleason

Corvo McBain

Babchuk Carson

Ward

Peters

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After watching 2/3 of the Russian game I have to up my estimate for Skinner. If this kid doesn't score 20 goals I'll be shocked.

Really makes you wonder what the scouting services were smoking when they had him so low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After watching 2/3 of the Russian game I have to up my estimate for Skinner. If this kid doesn't score 20 goals I'll be shocked.

Really makes you wonder what the scouting services were smoking when they had him so low.

well, let me introduce you to the idea of marketing. the fabulous duo were being touted as the second coming, and it fed the media trolls on who was better and who would go first. i remember reading a while back that out of that draft class, skinner was that guy you were amazed by for elite scoring skills. the term , iirc, was the best pure goal scorer. im not knocking the rest of the draft, but i for one have wanted a scoring machine here for a long time, and jumped for joy when they drafted him. a bit surprised, but happy.

:cheers: here's to skinner making a lot of goalies look stupid stunned

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well with expectations, we expect to win the cup, ya never know, but we hope, cheer , go crazy over our team, i think cole is a big key, stay away from injuries, please tell me they kept staal out in 3rd period today for a non injury.. skinner could be rookie of year, ya never know, it will be exciting , i think we will be in most games, yes, give cammer afew days off on these long trips.. osullivan looks good, and we need the sassiness and grittiness of larose, im going to miss when going to raleigh, having whitney hit puck against boards as i sat there with trish, and the grin on his face..during the practices.. well lets enjoy it all, take it it, enjoy the ride.. i think alot of low scoring defensive games in store for us.. lets play hockey! dinz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.. i think alot of low scoring defensive games in store for us.. lets play hockey! dinz

I think a lot of people are thinking low scoring games, and Mo's reputation and most of the pre-season might suggest that, but I say not so quick on the low scoring.

Last year's team was actually above average in goals per game #13. True we've lost Whitney and Cullen, but LaRose and Cole and Sammy underperformed and we did not have the likes of Skinner and O'Sullivan, or Babchuk (or even McBain) scoring from the back end.

I have made much of our lack of guys who have the proven chops to score year after year consistently, but we have SO many guys who can score, that even if only a couple of them fail, there are still a lot of goals there.

There are a lot of ifs, but also a lot of reason to predict that many of the ifs will happen.

If everything I laid out happens we could be #2 in the league in goals including the league's top offensive d corp.

Knowing that Cam is back there manning the fort, the team could really begin to create offense.

Despite Mo's reputation for slogfests, the team did not play like that during the run to the ECF or the end of last year. Even in the preseason I've seen some good movement and open ice play. I think the goals will come.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rem, that's fine and dandy, the scoring potential and all, but scoring goals is only part of the game. The things that continue to concern me are:

1) Lack of size and what appears to be lack of any physical presence, except for Timmy. Quite frankly, I think the bigger teams are going to bully us around unless we fix that. Thus far, I have seen way too many puck battles lost along the boards. We get pushed off the puck too easy, which results in loss of possession time. Also, we can't have guys taking shots at our stars and our young players without expecting some repercussions. Timmy cannot do it all by himself. Harrison tries, but he comes up short more often than not. Same for KStop.

2) Lack of defensive depth. We can put a respectable top-2 pairings on the ice. That's about it. One of Gleason, Pitkanen, or Corvo go down, its going to effect what we can do.

I'm certainly not ignoring our scoring "potential", but for that to be realized you have to control the puck. I'm concerned. As unpopular as it may sound, I still have us 10-12 in the conference.

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rem, that's fine and dandy, the scoring potential and all, but scoring goals is only part of the game. The things that continue to concern me are:

1) Lack of size and what appears to be lack of any physical presence, except for Timmy. Quite frankly, I think the bigger teams are going to bully us around unless we fix that. Thus far, I have seen way too many puck battles lost along the boards. We get pushed off the puck too easy, which results in loss of possession time. Also, we can't have guys taking shots at our stars and our young players without expecting some repercussions. Timmy cannot do it all by himself. Harrison tries, but he comes up short more often than not. Same for KStop.

2) Lack of defensive depth. We can put a respectable top-2 pairings on the ice. That's about it. One of Gleason, Pitkanen, or Corvo go down, its going to effect what we can do.

I'm certainly not ignoring our scoring "potential", but for that to be realized you have to control the puck. I'm concerned. As unpopular as it may sound, I still have us 10-12 in the conference.

Coastal,

All great points. I agree with #1 entirely. I think at the end of the day JR is going to have to go goon shopping and put that person on the 4th line. OK, maybe not a true goon, but an intimidator of some kind. We have a spot on the 4th line that is currently occupied by ? Sammy? or if Sammy gets going, some other should be scoring guy, that is the natural spot for a extremely physical guy. It kind of stinks that it may come to that, but it probably will as teams are just going to keep on goading Gleason all year long. Do we have anyone like that in the system? Before it's over we might have to resort to that.

#2. I don't know. We have Carson and Sanguinetti. I'm not sure how many teams could take a hit to a top 4 defenseman and not have issues. It is true we would be stronger if our #6 guy could slide seamlessly into the top 4, but how many teams have that? I don't know. Not a big Harrison fan, but Sanguintetti and Carson can play.

Here's another point that I haven't made because it's even more speculative than my other ones, but one way to stop the cheap shots is with a deadly powerplay. We've never really had that since I've been a fan (parts of the cup year excepted), but with 4 offensive dmen, Babs' cannon and Skinner and O'Sullivan in the mix, it is possible. You cheap shot us, we go on the PP and win the game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coastal,

All great points. I agree with #1 entirely. I think at the end of the day JR is going to have to go goon shopping and put that person on the 4th line. OK, maybe not a true goon, but an intimidator of some kind. We have a spot on the 4th line that is currently occupied by ? Sammy? or if Sammy gets going, some other should be scoring guy, that is the natural spot for a extremely physical guy. It kind of stinks that it may come to that, but it probably will as teams are just going to keep on goading Gleason all year long. Do we have anyone like that in the system? Before it's over we might have to resort to that.

#2. I don't know. We have Carson and Sanguinetti. I'm not sure how many teams could take a hit to a top 4 defenseman and not have issues. It is true we would be stronger if our #6 guy could slide seamlessly into the top 4, but how many teams have that? I don't know. Not a big Harrison fan, but Sanguintetti and Carson can play.

Here's another point that I haven't made because it's even more speculative than my other ones, but one way to stop the cheap shots is with a deadly powerplay. We've never really had that since I've been a fan (parts of the cup year excepted), but with 4 offensive dmen, Babs' cannon and Skinner and O'Sullivan in the mix, it is possible. You cheap shot us, we go on the PP and win the game.

As far as #2, I think Mo is making the best out of what JR has given him. But I don't know how anybody could be at ease with our defensive strengths beyond the three I have mentioned. McBain is still developing. You only have to look at yesterday's game to see that. He stunk up the ice and played the worst game I've seen from him. It's going to happen to a young defenseman. I would like our depth a lot more if we added one more defensive-minded vet to the back end, but that doesn't appear to be in the cards. So, I'll continue to hope the young guys can step up. Until then, its a concern.

I certainly agree on the PP, and I have seen some small flashes of improvement. That's a work in progress and I hope the addition of O'Sullivan and Skinner can help us. We certainly have the weapons from the points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My only expectation is to see NHL quality hockey played for 82 games with a chance to see NHL Playoff Quality hockey well into the summer...

That means a high-paced game that displays lots of speed, skill, and physical play. Those three attributes are what define NHL Hockey. I hope that the team Rutherford has assembled and the system that Maurice puts in place meet those expectations.

If not, then I hope that they don't 'expect' me to renew my season tickets like I do every year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

McBain is still developing. You only have to look at yesterday's game to see that. He stunk up the ice and played the worst game I've seen from him. It's going to happen to a young defenseman. I would like our depth a lot more if we added one more defensive-minded vet to the back end, but that doesn't appear to be in the cards. So, I'll continue to hope the young guys can step up. Until then, its a concern.

Maybe it was the big ice, or jet lag. McBain is likely to be uneven, but what I saw from him last year cannot have been a fluke. He may have a sophomore slump, but once he finds his game he will be one of our best.

I really haven't followed him much since his injury, and I don't really know where he is in his recovery, but one of our smoothest defenseman in the system is Casey Borer. He seemed decent in training camp. At one point he was one of the top defensive prospects we had. Right now Carson and Sanguinetti are ahead of him, but I like him.

We are not going to have the best shutdown defense in the league, but Corvo/Gleason is pretty decent.

And these guys really ought to be able to push the puck up. Joni Pitkanen was #9 in the league in assists last year, tied with Lidstrom, one behind T. Kaberle and one ahead of S.Gonchar. And I really think Babs and Corvo are going to light the lamp a bunch. Personally I still think McBain will also.

We do need to shut down the other guy, and we would be better with one more solid defensive dman, (as we would with one more NHL third line center), but with what we have and the el cheapo approach, we could be a lot worse, and at least our D will move the puck up and create a ton of goals.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe it was the big ice, or jet lag. McBain is likely to be uneven, but what I saw from him last year cannot have been a fluke. He may have a sophomore slump, but once he finds his game he will be one of our best.

I really haven't followed him much since his injury, and I don't really know where he is in his recovery, but one of our smoothest defenseman in the system is Casey Borer. He seemed decent in training camp. At one point he was one of the top defensive prospects we had. Right now Carson and Sanguinetti are ahead of him, but I like him.

We are not going to have the best shutdown defense in the league, but Corvo/Gleason is pretty decent.

And these guys really ought to be able to push the puck up. Joni Pitkanen was #9 in the league in assists last year, tied with Lidstrom, one behind T. Kaberle and one ahead of S.Gonchar. And I really think Babs and Corvo are going to light the lamp a bunch. Personally I still think McBain will also.

We do need to shut down the other guy, and we would be better with one more solid defensive dman, (as we would with one more NHL third line center), but with what we have and the el cheapo approach, we could be a lot worse, and at least our D will move the puck up and create a ton of goals.

I hope you are right. I tend to worry over defense more than others. :hairpull:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like Yahoo Sports Hockey guy gives us little respect:

http://sports.yahoo....-nhlpower100510

He starts us off with a power ranking of #26. Yikes there's only 30 teams.

"Carolina Hurricanes – Team is in transition and have as many holes as Swiss cheese. No playoffs for a second straight year is in the offing."

Just what we want them thinking.

On the plus side, he's got the Wild #29, so maybe we can get a couple of wins early.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I expect a playoff push, at the very least.

If he keeps playing the way he is and scores some goals, I expect Skinner to find his way to the top line.

I expect Anton Babchuk to have a strong year. As far as McBain, he started slow last season too, I expect he'll find his game, but I hope it's sonner than later. I feel bad for Samsonov, he looked really good in the preseason until the neck injury...this guy can't get a break. Before the injury I expected him to score 30, he definitely has the talent, and we need it since Whitney's gone. Post injury I don't know... hope it isn't one of those nagging injuries.

Actually... I expect both Skinner and Sully to score 30 each. Staal nets 50. Canes win the East... JR makes brilliant trades at the deadline to bring in a stay at home defenseman and veteran winger. Canes win the cup beating LA in 6 games... you heard it here first! Errr... read it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well a bit more respect over at ESPN:

Starting us out at #14. Better, warmer...

"Yes, I know … it's a heck of a jump from their 24th overall finish in the standings last season. But that team should have never been that bad. A revived Eric Staal will have a big season, rookies Jeff Skinner and Jamie McBain will impress and the Canes will make it back to the playoffs … we think."

http://espn.go.com/nhl/powerrankings

I think that's more like it.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If 90% or better of rookies or sophmore do what we expect I see us in 4th-6th.

If 50% or less " " do what we expect I expect a gruelling fight for 7th and 8th.

If most of our rookies bust... I expect Remkin to be bald by the end of the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If 90% or better of rookies or sophmore do what we expect I see us in 4th-6th.

If 50% or less " " do what we expect I expect a gruelling fight for 7th and 8th.

If most of our rookies bust... I expect Remkin to be bald by the end of the year.

On the first two points, I like your optimism. This is the time of year for optimism. And I definitely see the glass 3/4 full right now.

On that last line th_hairpull.gif, how do you know I'm not already bald? grin.gif.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many have noticed that after Helsinki we embark on the road trip into darkness. But looking more carefully into it, it is even more brutal than it looks.

First game after Helsinki: Ottawa in Ottawa. Jet lag, tons of travel. Vs. a good team that is also rested. I went to the game last year when we played whoever it was that went to Europe in their first game back. It was utter destruction. The opponent had no legs. It was ugly. Even our terrible team of early last year destroyed them. That doesn't mean our guys will lay down, but if ever there were a game to fly out to Vegas an put down a big bet against the Canes it would be this one.

Second game: Travel clear across the country and 2 more time zones and play a top 5 team in Vancouver.

Third game: One days rest and play one of the best home teams around SanJose.

Fourth: LA in their building back to back. Well at least the NHL made LA also play back to back right? Nope. Well rested.

Fifth: Phoenix: upstart of last year. Very fast team. The first winnable game but we're certainly underdogs.

Sixth: Washington. Everyone's pick for the best team in the league this year is our home opener. There is a definite trend of teams losing the first game back after a long road trip. I would suspect that ours is one of the longest in history.

Seventh: NYR. In their building, but other than that we better win this one because next we get...

Eighth: Pittsburgh. And we're back to back traveling. At least Pittsburgh plays the night before. But it is Pittsburgh.

My guess is that Mo puts in a real defense-first approach for that road trip and try to get a couple of ties at least. Just hold the Mo must go chants until at least after November if that is the case. Since he should open things up through November.

I still like our team. But the only way we come out of the first 10 games near .500 is if we sweep Minnesota. These next two games are pretty key. If we drop them both....I might go bald.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many have noticed that after Helsinki we embark on the road trip into darkness. But looking more carefully into it, it is even more brutal than it looks.

...

I still like our team. But the only way we come out of the first 10 games near .500 is if we sweep Minnesota. These next two games are pretty key. If we drop them both....I might go bald.

I agree. Key is the overseas games. 4 points would be great, 3 maybe. The games after that are going to be tough. I think it will be a huge accomplishment to get to November at .500 in possible points.

No worries about the baldness. Just ask Friesen and myself. Cool breezes, shampoo savings, and easy dry in after the shower. You'll be fine.

Edited by wxray1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many have noticed that after Helsinki we embark on the road trip into darkness. But looking more carefully into it, it is even more brutal than it looks.he

I still like our team. But the only way we come out of the first 10 games near .500 is if we sweep Minnesota. These next two games are pretty key. If we drop them both....I might go bald.

I agree. Key is the overseas games. 4 points would be great, 3 maybe. The games after that are going to be tough. I think it will be a huge accomplishment to get to November at .500 in possible points.

I couldn't agree more. It is imperative that the team gets off to a good start in Finland. Taking back to back games is never easy. If we can beat the Wild twice it would be terrific. If we split it would be alright but if we were to drop two we would be behind the eight ball. A .500 road trip would be nice but who ever made this schedule certainly gave the Canes a tough start. I hope we can skate in our sleep because the jet lag is gonna be tough. My expectations remain high.

Edited by OBXer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...