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AWACSooner

I'm throwing in the towel on this season...

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I would just like to add that Sabres and Rangers play against each other one more time... So that makes the Rangers a target if the Sabres win (They're currently 3 points ahead of Sabres, with 1 more game played) OR make the Sabres an easier target. All we can hope for is that game doesn't go to OT... ><

And Sabres and the Rangers still have a game against the Devils... I don't think they can make it to the playoffs (but then again, you never know), but they believe they can and have been unstoppable lately... Please ô Devils.... (I suddenly feel satanist..)

We still have a chance! The only thing I don't like is that it depends a lot on the other teams..

I am not very optimistic, but I'd LOVE to be wrong!

PS: Nice XKCD.

Edited by mbinette

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Put me down in the educated "opinion" camp. I hate to use facts, but sometimes they help.

Since the All Star Break, the Canes:

Overall Record = 10-10-2

5-5-1 against Top-8 teams

5-5-1 against Bottom-8 Teams

Longest Winning Streak - 2 games

Back-to-Back Wins - 1 time

Record in Back-to Backs (total 5) - 1-1,1-1,1-1,0-2,1-1

Record Last 10 games = 4-5-1

Schedule Going Forward:

Against Top-8 Teams - 7 games

Against Bottom-8 teams - 3 games

Back-to-Backs - 3 times

Hurricanes Chances of Making the Playoffs = 28% (weighted); 25% (50\50); source is SportClubStats, a site using actual statistics in a predictive manner (educated guess)

NHL Playoff Chances - SportsClubStats

NHL Tie-breaking Rules (if Canes and Slugs end up tied in points)

1. Points (N\A; currently favors Buffalo)

2. Regulation plus overtime wins, excluding shootouts (TBD, currently favors Buffalo)

3. Head to Head Matchup (Canes win April 3, favors Canes, Sabres Regulation win favors Slugs, Sabres non-shootout OT win goes to next tiebreaker)

4. Better Goal Differential (GF-GA) TBD; currently favors Buffalo

Looking at our recent trend, our schedule going forward, sites using predictive statistics, and the tie breaking procedure, I'd say our chance of making the playoffs is very, very slim.

If the Canes do get in, it will be going against the "odds" and the trends they have exhibited over the last 20-25 games, or the season for that matter. To suddenly believe they will be a different team, well........

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Put me down in the educated "opinion" camp.

And yes all it is an OPINION, not a fact was my point. But are you saying if a 'fan" of the hurrcanes still thinks the canes can make the playoff's or has hope of a playoffs- they are "uneducated"??.. I really hope that isn't what you meant.

and for this "uneducated fan"

the tiebreaker is new for 2011 and excludes games won in a shootout( buffalo has 5 we have 4).. So now buffalo has 30 wins to canes 29, so a win against them at home will give us the same in wins and of course the head to head would be the next tiebreaker and that would be canes..

1.Wins: Most total wins among the tied teams, excluding games won in the shootout.

2.Head-to-Head Record: Most points in games against each other among the tied teams.

Edited by canes-in-7

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Mathematically, they are still way in it. Mathematically, they don't control their destiny yet, although if they win all of their remaining games, it is almost a sure thing they are in.

The problem is that buf and/or nyr need to start losing a few, and the Canes gotta really roll. The Canes did themselves zero favors last week, especially against CBJ and TOR -- teams behind that you have to beat.

The Canes need to suddenly be able to score 3, 4 or 5 goals -- something not seen in ages.

It looks bad. But you never know. A few years back, when WAS was on a roll, all the Canes had to do was win 1 out of 3 or so. Fat chance, WAS did the near impossible and squeaked ahead. But the comparison is no go right now because the Canes are not yet on a roll. They must start tomorrow, else it is pretty much curtains.

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And yes all it is an OPINION, not a fact was my point. But are you saying if a 'fan" of the hurrcanes still thinks the canes can make the playoff's or has hope of a playoffs- they are "uneducated"??.. I really hope that isn't what you meant.

and for this "uneducated fan"

the tiebreaker is new for 2011 and excludes games won in a shootout( buffalo has 5 we have 4).. So now buffalo has 30 wins to canes 29, so a win against them at home will give us the same in wins and of course the head to head would be the next tiebreaker and that would be canes..

1.Wins: Most total wins among the tied teams, excluding games won in the shootout.

2.Head-to-Head Record: Most points in games against each other among the tied teams.

Actually, no. I never referred to anyone as an uneducated fan. Sorry you took it that way and thanks for letting me clear that up before you made your own assumption and your next point.

But, I'll do that now. I stated "I" prefer to base "my" opinion on the Canes chances going forward on facts, trends, stats, and the rules, so put me in that camp of people who "educate" themselves with useless facts and stats to form an opinion. I would point out that I was responding to the discussion in general, and not you specifically. Otherwise, I would have quoted you. ;)

Since you replied to me specifically, I'll respond. Yes, as far as the Canes chances, everything said by anyone at this point is pure speculation and opinion. Yes, you are right, the Canes can make the playoffs, even taking into consideration the way they've played over the last two months and the rest of the season, the hole they have dug themselves, their remaining schedule, and the reality that the tie breaking rules aren't currently in their favor.

I'm aware of the new rules excluding shootout wins, so I made an edit to be more specific defining what I termed overtime wins in the 2nd and 3rd tiebreaker. Thanks. No need to edit the outcome, cause it was right originally.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Since you replied to me specifically, I'll respond. Yes, as far as the Canes chances, everything said by anyone at this point is pure speculation and opinion.

We are on the same page, that was all saying, nothing is a fact or set in Stone.. YET

And with each "W" the optimists "look smart" and with each loss the "pessmists look "smart" when in reality it neither, just the nature of sports in particular have alot more in common "with a random walk " or markov chain then most want to admit. :grin:

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The "facts" I'm talking about are the stats...the Canes haven't been able to string together 3 wins in over 2 months. Period. Their record is all the facts I need to base my opinion, that they are not going to be able to make the playoffs based upon their inability to win more than 2 out of 5 games.

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The "facts" I'm talking about are the stats...the Canes haven't been able to string together 3 wins in over 2 months. Period. Their record is all the facts I need to base my opinion, that they are not going to be able to make the playoffs based upon their inability to win more than 2 out of 5 games.

And my point is the stats are NOT a acurate predictor or make the opinion "true" or a "fact", especially when comes to sports.. If it was that easy, as said the patriots would be Sb champs in 2007 not giants or pick any of a million upsets that happen.If Stats were such a great predictor, you could use these same stats and make millions as a sports book and live on your own tax free island, alas most times despite what 'stats" tell you, the opposite happens and why "sports betting" for most a very unprofitable business to all but the actual bookies and vegas.

As said, the Facts and stats that the devils had won 19 in a row,including sweeping the rangers meant the hurricanes would lose to them in 2008 and we know the stats became meaningless quickly in that one.

Could you end up being right? Of course and likely so with each loss. BUT it is not a truth or fact YET, just an opinion you beleive strongly in, that others may not. Especially when Canes only need one more win than buffalo over the next 9 games AND the home win against them to take the spot from them. that is not a huge disparity or statistical anomoly if that happens, I mean seriously if a team with a winning percentage of 55.5%( buffalo), over the next 9 games( not incluing the home game with canes)- lost one more than a team with a 53.2% winning percentage( canes), should it really suprise anyone? i don't think so, both teams have been the "inconsistently, consistant" teams of the East this year.

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bump to see coastal's post( that isnt showing)

and now that have seen it, have a thought for you coastal

A pessimist thinks the stats can't change and therefore beleives the canes can't make it based on previous history and that can't change going forward

and a optimist beleives the stats can and do change each game and thefore thinks the canes can still make it based on statistical analysis saying this happens all the time in sports.

just saying... :lol:

Edited by canes-in-7

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Fact is, the Sens and Isles are still in the playoff race. It's easy to fool oneself with the sportsclubstats.com numbers. 25% doesn't sound too bad until you realize there is no scenario where they make it with more than 2 losses. Even then it still doesn't mean it can't happen, but it's very unlikely.

In general, opinions based on stats make more sense to people than opinions based on dreams, but hey, to each their own...

(And I say this as someone who felt all along the Giants would beat the Pats - still makes me :D )

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(And I say this as someone who felt all along the Giants would beat the Pats - still makes me :D )

:shifty:

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The Canes will not be out of the playoffs until there they are more points behind than can be gainded in the following games. The Canes must match the Slugs win-for-win and hope that with each loss, the Slugs also lose. Come Sunday evening, the Canes should know if they are still in the playoffs or need to be calling for tee-times.

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I think Tim Gleason put it pretty well in the post game interview last week...

"We should have started our push a month ago. "

(That is when they held 8th) :shakeshead:

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It's ironic that last year when the team had no real chance of making the playoffs there were so many "never say die" people who said, to heck with the draft pick, let's go for it! Now we are 3 points out, with 10 remaining and a game at home against the team ahead of us, and it's over? Over? Did we quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

It's going to take a run vs. some really good teams. Odds are against us. But not like they were last year. We have a chance to make a last ditch kick at the end.

As a statistician*, I would not bet money on it, but as a fan I gotta believe! That's the idea of being a fan dang it. Can I get an AMEN?

There are no more trades to be made this year. Just this team looking around the room and saying....lets go down swinging!

Now I want you to get up out of your seats, and walk over to that window and shout...

LET"S GO CANES!!!!! And it all starts tonight!

*not really a statistician.

Edited by remkin

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It's ironic that last year when the team had no real chance of making the playoffs there were so many "never say die" people who said, to heck with the draft pick, let's go for it! Now we are 3 points out, with 10 remaining and a game at home against the team ahead of us, and it's over? Over? Did we quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

It's going to take a run vs. some really good teams. Odds are against us. But not like they were last year. We have a chance to make a last ditch kick at the end.

As a statistician*, I would not bet money on it, but as a fan I gotta believe! That's the idea of being a fan dang it. Can I get an AMEN?

There are no more trades to be made this year. Just this team looking around the room and saying....lets go down swinging!

Now I want you to get up out of your seats, and walk over to that window and shout...

LET"S GO CANES!!!!! And it all starts tonight!

*not really a statistician.

AMEN!!! BROTHA!

And of course if we win and buffalo loses tonight( a distinct possibility as in the game is in montreal for the 'stat" people that if being realistic and not pessimstic), we are back to controlling our own destiny and 1 point behind them with the home game with them.And then all the 'stats" and facts that today say 'we will not make it", will then be going to side fo "making it"... and why I do not put too much into that as some do

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This "stat" person will be there tonight, and at every other home game this season. And I've been doing the same since October. Believe it or not, it's possible to support your team while recognizing things don't look so good.

So, with that said, there' a Hurricane a Comin! :lol:

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This "stat" person will be there tonight, and at every other home game this season. And I've been doing the same since October. Believe it or not, it's possible to support your team while recognizing things don't look so good.

So, with that said, there' a Hurricane a Comin! :lol:

been a STH since greensboro.. seen the good(2001- the ovation at end of jersey series still chokes me up 2001,2002,2006 and 2009 playoffs) the bad( anson carter owning us in playoffs in greensboro,needing ONe game in 2008 for the playoffs and losing it to crapitals) the UGLY( the drape of death in greensboro, steve chiasson,the last place and 6,000 fans in feb games in 2004,lockout) and many moe memories in all 3 states of affairs.. I'll always cheer my heart out for them and will always be optimistic as a fan

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Got the 2 wins we needed, 4 goals last night and a beauty play between Cole, Stiller and Staal. Now on to the next two and we need at least one of those. Buffalo is back to back at home with Fla and Jersey, who should be pretty chapped with the beating they took last night.

Still holding on...

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