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jeromeo87

2012 Off Season Discussion

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Just to rub salt in the wound that last offseason was, Eric Cole is tied for #13 in the league in goals, 3 ahead of Parise and 5 ahead of Rick Nash.

Whereas his replacement: Poni, Stewart, and Dalpe have 17 goals...combined.

OK that's out of my system.

Ouch, hard to overlook those numbers.

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So you're saying that Erik Cole's career-high 35 goals might have been enough to help

the Hurricanes win some close games, pushing their point total high enough for an 8th

place finish and a berth in the Stanley Cup playoffs -- where a hot goaltender .... say ....

a rejuvenated Cam Ward -- could upset an opponent; then, with the help of a determined

group of forwards, who forecheck like a roving pack of starving dingo dogs, make a long,

magical run through the playoffs.

Interesting.

But - and this might be the liquor talking - but that makes things way too easy. :)

Liquor? 7:50AM Easter morning? Wow, you must have had some party last night.

I have to say that Coastal's little stat comparison made me laugh out loud, and then cry.

I really hope JR learned from that.

Edited by wxray1

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So you're saying that Erik Cole's career-high 35 goals might have been enough to help

the Hurricanes win some close games, pushing their point total high enough for an 8th

place finish and a berth in the Stanley Cup playoffs -- where a hot goaltender .... say ....

a rejuvenated Cam Ward -- could upset an opponent; then, with the help of a determined

group of forwards, who forecheck like a roving pack of starving dingo dogs, make a long,

magical run through the playoffs.

Something like that.

I guess the irony of what that kind of production will cost us if we do go after it now. Look at the contracts of some of the names around Cole on that list. The thing about Cole is that to me he proved himself last year. I know some say it was the contract year, but obviously not. Last year Cole was an honest to Pete first line winger, which ironically, is what we need. Think on what Parise and Nash are going to get paid next year. Cole is a serious bargain.

The other thing I can't help notice is how many Canes from that (some say) fluke cup are around the league putting up serious points.

Cole 35 goals

Whitney #13 in points at 77 (ageless)

JWilly 59 points

Ladd 28 goals.

I along with others called the Cole debacle before and after. But MAN did I get Whitney wrong. How does this guy not age? Kudos to all of you who would have resigned Whitney. Just think if we still had Cole and Whitney. Just think.....

We move on, but I think it proves that the collection of talent that JR amassed in 06 was truly special. When you take those names up there and add a fully charged Brind'Amour, Staal, Cullen, Stillmann still at his peak...Recci, Weight. Fluke my a........

So I became a full time raging Caniac during that season. Talk about spoiled. But it is what it is. I want to see comparable talent on this team again. That's why I push for the first line winger. That's why the "lose Cole replace him with projects" thing was so painful. I wish Cole well, but his off the hook play in Montreal really stings, especially when you consider how many chances we gave the bad Cole hoping to get what we saw last year, only to let the great Cole walk.

Edited by remkin

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Congratulations to Brian Dumoulin on his second NCAA Championship at BC.

Now please sign with the Canes!!! Can't wait to see you here in Raleigh!

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I really don't think anyone would have predicted a 35 goal season out of Cole, and who is to say that would have happened here? We can play what ifs all off-season but he could have just as likely broken something and been out half the season.

A lot of people like to point to former canes guys and say look here, why did we let those guys go? Well looking back on it those guys were all here at once for a number of years after the cup and were pretty content with mediocrity imo. Time to move on and stop looking back at players that weren't here half the time they were.

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I really don't think anyone would have predicted a 35 goal season out of Cole, and who is to say that would have happened here? We can play what ifs all off-season but he could have just as likely broken something and been out half the season.

A lot of people like to point to former canes guys and say look here, why did we let those guys go? Well looking back on it those guys were all here at once for a number of years after the cup and were pretty content with mediocrity imo. Time to move on and stop looking back at players that weren't here half the time they were.

I actually think you make a good point about most of the ex Canes. JR did try to keep the band together and it did not work for several reasons. My point about the ex canes is partly to lament how the talent level slipped away, but mainly to argue that to win a cup you need that level of talent, and partly to continue to argue that the cup team was loaded with talent, not just a team that "figured the rules out first" and everyone just had career years, as some like to argue.

I disagree about Cole though. I am not at all surprised he put up 30+ goals. The guy was on that pace the second half of the season and it was crystal clear that he had fully returned to a form that saw him put up 30 goals in 60 games in 05-06, which in an 82 game season would have had the potential to be 41 goals. If you were in the "he's just playing for his contract" group, that was the only sliver of argument that he would not continue into this year. Those who said that were wrong. Cole also had an adjustment period in Montreal or his numbers might have been better. The Cole of the last 3/4 of last year was easily a 35 goal player.

IF JR pulls the trigger for a top line winger, he's going to pay a lot more than $4.5 million probably.

The loss of Williams, Stillman, and Whitney made sense at the time and I really can't argue with those moves. The loss of Cullen and even more so Cole this last time, were arguably mistakes. I argued it then and now.

There are a lot of good things happening and JR can make it all right with one big move, but it's the end of the season for Cole and his Cane replacements. The final word on how that worked out for 2012 is just in, so pointing it out once seems reasonable.

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I disagree about Cole though. I am not at all surprised he put up 30+ goals. The guy was on that pace the second half of the season and it was crystal clear that he had fully returned to a form that saw him put up 30 goals in 60 games in 05-06, which in an 82 game season would have had the potential to be 41 goals. If you were in the "he's just playing for his contract" group, that was the only sliver of argument that he would not continue into this year. Those who said that were wrong. Cole also had an adjustment period in Montreal or his numbers might have been better. The Cole of the last 3/4 of last year was easily a 35 goal player.

Well your right on that I guess. I didn't think it would happen based of his history of injuries and two out of nine seasons being of that caliber. I am glad he is back to form, but again, it doesn't help us that he put things back together now. I think JR got bit by the NTCs he was handing out after the cup and didn't feel like being handcuffed for 3-4 years on another one on what may or may not happen, and now we are left looking for a top winger that will probably cost us more.

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Well your right on that I guess. I didn't think it would happen based of his history of injuries and two out of nine seasons being of that caliber. I am glad he is back to form, but again, it doesn't help us that he put things back together now. I think JR got bit by the NTCs he was handing out after the cup and didn't feel like being handcuffed for 3-4 years on another one on what may or may not happen, and now we are left looking for a top winger that will probably cost us more.

Tough to look at the deal after year 1...would we have been better this year with Cole...absolutely, but you cannot evaluate the contract after year 4. Cole wanted a 4 year deal and for an oft injured 33 year old, JR didn't want to make that expense. Ruutu got a 4 year deal but remember he is 5 years younger than Cole.

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Just something to ponder, various stats for this season vs. the 2001-11 season:

All numbers are league rankings (i.e 27=27th, etc.)

Wins

2010-11, 19

2011-12, 27

G/G

2010-11, 12

2011-12, 26

GA/G

2010-11, 21

2011-12, 25

5 on 5/FA

2010-11, 19

2011-12, 27

PP%

2010-11, 24

2011-12, 20

PK%

2010-11, 20

2011-12, 22

S/G

2010-11, 13

2011-12, 12

SA/G

2010-11, 30

2011-12, 30

FO%

2010-11, 29

2011-12, 10

Draw your own conclusions. :letssee:

Oh yeah, Cam Ward:

Saves

2010-11, 1

2011-12, 2

Save%

2010-11, 19

2011-12, 17

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I think it's really hard to say whether or not Cole would have been enough to not have the meltdown we had in the beginning of the year. That team wasn't prepared to play and Muller blamed the players being out of shape which is odd he went public with that imo. I really can't see that a team that was out of shape coming into the season would have fared any better with Cole and I can't see Cole having a 34 goal campaign with us.

Cole would have been just as out of shape and unprepared to play as the rest of the group.

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legend, I don't think Muller meant that they were out of shape as in poorly conditioned. I think he meant that they weren't conditioned to be able to play an up tempo style of game and maintain the intensity for 3 periods.

Wow, pretty telling stats about Cam, it would make the world of difference to see the SA's come down. FO's really improved, that made a huge difference.

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I really don't think anyone would have predicted a 35 goal season out of Cole, and who is to say that would have happened here? We can play what ifs all off-season but he could have just as likely broken something and been out half the season.

A lot of people like to point to former canes guys and say look here, why did we let those guys go? Well looking back on it those guys were all here at once for a number of years after the cup and were pretty content with mediocrity imo. Time to move on and stop looking back at players that weren't here half the time they were.

You have to consider what the Habs did with Cole. As their team leader in goals, I believe his role was that of the shooter rather than that of the set up. Here his position was to set up Staal, there he was the scorer. Although his assists were not bad numbers either.

As to you other point, we did have a let down after the cup run, but rather that work through it, the management decided against a fast up tempo game and settled for Paul "Let everyone dust off the puck before shooting" Maurice. The effects have lasted into this last season with a "rebuilding" attitude that has finally been broken with our new coach. I can see Kirk turning this team around and bringing back fast, in your face, hockey.

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Having CI, i saw alot of coles games, he always a big force in front of net all year, he really put some muscle on..

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Just say no to Semin!

Guy has all the talent in the world...yet seems to have no heart to put in the hard work. He disappers for long stretches. No I don't want a player who only plays hard part time.

Plus with JR's history...I don't see him going after a Russian FA.

Plus I don't see Muller wanting a part time player...he would probably want a player with less talent but gives everything he has got every single shift.

Parise = Yes.

Semin = NO!

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Looking over a few post-lottery mocks...15 D-Men and a goalie all projected in the 1st round...4 of 14 1st round forwards will definitely be off the boards when we pick at 8 (Yakupov, Grigorienko, Forsberg and Galchenyuk). I doubt we go D with #8. Here are 2 players I think could be available and would fit for that pick...

Teuvo Teräväinen...he's very young, only a week away from being in the class of 2013; he needs to put on a solid 20+ lbs (5'11" maybe 170) but he has some serious offensive talent the puck in the net. Played 40 games with Jarkko Ruutu this year.

Radek Faska...o we go to the Kitchener well again? He's an excellent offensive prospect (see video below, dude has skills). He led the OHL in scoring for first year players (29G 37A) and has much better size at 6'3", 203.

http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2012/

http://thehockeywriters.com/2012-nhl-draft-lottery-results-complete-with-nhl-mock-draft/

http://www.nhlmockdraft.org/teuvo-teravainen/ (video here)

(Faska video)

http://thehockeywriters.com/radek-faksa-the-next-ones-nhl-2012-draft-prospect-profile-ascending-up-the-ranks/

Do we pick or can we parlay that #8 into a trade?

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I've read two places that had the Canes likely going to Kitchener again for Radek Faska. He does seem to make sense but trading up makes more sense. Question is whether JR can find a trade partner. Something tells me our dealings with Montreal aren't done yet after unloading the Kaberle contract on them but I can't see them trading away a top pick either.

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I've read two places that had the Canes likely going to Kitchener again for Radek Faska. He does seem to make sense but trading up makes more sense. Question is whether JR can find a trade partner. Something tells me our dealings with Montreal aren't done yet after unloading the Kaberle contract on them but I can't see them trading away a top pick either.

Trading up or using the pick for that top winger...#8 and a player (Joni) to Columbus for Nash?

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Trading up or using the pick for that top winger...#8 and a player (Joni) to Columbus for Nash?

Something like that would make sense, but I'm afraid its going to take a little more than that to be in the dscussion for Nash. Think what Toronto had to give up for Phil Kessel, they had to send the Bruins a 1st and 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft, plus a 1st round pick in the 2011 draft (essentially it took 2-1st round and 1-2nd round pick).

Joni is a 1st round NHL veteran and our 8th pick this year may or may not be NHL ready so its likely going to take another NHL ready player or top 1st round prospect who's close. Just my guess anyway...

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It seems to me that we just have a logjam almost everywhere you look.

  • Too many 3rd/4th line guys clogging up space for prospects
  • Too many signed D-men blocking prospects and/or FA signings
  • Justin Peters shows well in limited time, but is stuck behind Boucher (note: I still prefer Boucher)

What this shows me is that something has to give. We really need to try to find a way to trade quantity for quality. We could use upgrades on both ends, but don't realistically have anywhere to put new acquisitions without clearing more spots in the process (especially if we're thinking any of our prospects are going to crack the roster as well).

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Not sure Kessel is a good comparison for Nash, Kessel was a lot younger and had much more upside. Also, Nash has an NMC so he controls where he goes. And everyone knows CBJ has to move him. The Heatley situation would almost be comparable except I'm sure Nash has 100x the class of Heatley. It will be interesting to see what they can get for him, but I highly doubt it will be anything like what they were requesting at the deadline, or even as good as they were reportedly offered by the Rangers.

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It seems to me that we just have a logjam almost everywhere you look.

  • Too many 3rd/4th line guys clogging up space for prospects
  • Too many signed D-men blocking prospects and/or FA signings
  • Justin Peters shows well in limited time, but is stuck behind Boucher (note: I still prefer Boucher)

What this shows me is that something has to give. We really need to try to find a way to trade quantity for quality. We could use upgrades on both ends, but don't realistically have anywhere to put new acquisitions without clearing more spots in the process (especially if we're thinking any of our prospects are going to crack the roster as well).

Good points plus JR made it sound like the prospects aren't ready to move up anyway and now we have added Welsh. Ditto for defense and add Dumo and Murphy to that mix. Think the Canes can either bundle some of these guys and our 1st round pick to move up in the draft or add a 2nd rounder to trade for a tier 1 forward under contract, like a Nash or Ryan. Somebody had mentioned going after Edmonton's Eberle, now that they'll get Nail. He can really score for a young guy but I don't know anything else about him.

Of course looking for a Parise-caliber FA is JR's goal but he will still have to move some guys for salary room.

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Scoring-wise, Semin is the only 1st line guy (under 30) that's a UFA. So if

Parise signs elsewhere you need a Plan B and a Plan C. I think Muller could

whip him into shape.

Uh...no. As for me, I'll pass on Semin. We don't need another occasional player.

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Uh...no. As for me, I'll pass on Semin. We don't need another occasional player.

I didn't see him last night. Was he even in the game? He must only show up for games against the Canes.

I agree. Pass on Semin.

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OK, so #8 it is. dry.gif

One of the most intriguing yet utterly useless things to do this time of year is to look at mock drafts and the central scouting reports on upcoming prospects. Intriguing because it gives just enough information to have the sense that you start knowing what you're talking about. Useless because after the top few picks the predictions are all over the place an almost no one gets it close to right with what actually happens.

That said, here is what I am gleaning from the central scouting and mock drafts I have seen. I have seen 8 mock drafts that are fairly recent. Collectively they have us taking 6 different guys. The only one that more than one guy picked for us is Radek Faksa, therefore we will pick....not him.

Radek Faksa: 6'2" Center ranked 7,7,9,13 in the other mocks. Central scouting has him as the #7 N.American skater, #4 NA forward, and consensus #5 forward overall (the only European forward consistently ahead of him is Filip Fosberg).

So we need a center, we need size, the guy is consistently ranked in the top 10 of all picks and is big. Pretty good guess. Thus it will not happen.

3/9 had us picking him. All others went all over the board with picks for us, interesting ones:

Teauvo Teravainen: Tuomo and Teauvo. Yes, the obvious thing is that we are compiling Finns. But Teauvo's stock is rising fast. He is a high skilled small guy, ranked as the #2 European Skater, but all over the mock drafts from #8-20. Other than the Finn thing though, my guess is JR might be thinking "Boychuk Part II". Not at all saying he will end up like Boychuk, but he is described as a high talent guy that needs to get bigger and stronger.

Matthew Dumba: High end offensive defenseman that is around 5'11". Ryan Murphy anyone? Ranked other mocks 4,6,6,6,11,11, he is the only guy ranked consistently higher than #8 that someone has us going for. This might be the "best player" scenario if he is there. Certainly not our need, but listed as the most exciting, high end offensive dman in the draft. Picked as high as #4, the anti-need, best player if there.....do you take him?

Griffin Reinhart: Big dman. ranked 10,9,9 by some other mocks.

Codi Ceci: Big dman rankend 12,14,9,9,10 by other mocks.

Zemgus Girgensons: Power Forward Center. 18,19,18 by others.

Anyway, based on the year we took Skinner, we need to really dig into the numbers of actual production, because I don't think any mock had us picking Skinner.

Like the Skinner year, this is projected to be a defense-rich draft with 8 of the first 12 skaters listed as Dmen. But it seems that a lot of GMs have a firm bias towards picking forwards. That upends the board early with really good Dmen slipping (see Cam Fowler).

Still, at this point the best bet seems to be Faksa. Checks all the boxes and is a top 10 skater at this point.

Disclaimers:

1. This will all change dramatically before draft time, especially below the top 5.

2. I know nothing personally of these guys, just relating what I am reading.

Edited by remkin

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