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jeromeo87

2012 Off Season Discussion

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You know guys. Everyone always talks about AO or Stamkos. But when it is all said and done I think the real star forward in the SE is Eric Staal. He finally has an elite winger to play with. This guy has won a cup, and is a proven playoff performer. Would it be a homer thing to say that he might actually be the best forward in the south east when it is all said and done?

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I think you put your finger on why this team could simply rock this year: We have a lot of guys who have statements to make:

EStaal: He can start strong and put up near 100 points again. He can be the guy of the end of last year. (Has his bro and a true first line winger to help).

JStaal: He can be a legitimate near elite point producer if given the chance to play with talented wingers in scoring situations.

Semin: He can return to form and light it up at near a ppg, and at the same time convince a team that he is not a cancer and worth a longer term deal.

Skinner: He is not a flash in the pan. He can be a more complete player and a more mature player.

Ruutu: 34 points. That is all.

Jussi : That he can return to 20+ goals to go with his playmaking. That he is NOT a third liner.

Tlusty: That he is a legit top 6 scorer and the last 27 games were just a prelude and not a fluke.

There are plenty of these on defense also, and Ward took a step back last year also.

This is a team full of guys with something to prove. That is very good.

This is exactly right. The Canes have been one of those teams for years where nothing good really ever happened for them in an offseason. They go into the season middle of the pack and lower on paper and as fans there's nothing to really get excited about. You just kind of hope that the Stewart's and Ponikarovsky's break out and have amazing years or that Ward, Skinner and Staal can put up ridiculous numbers and carry the team to a good year.

I would say that as players, the guys in the locker room probably feel the same way. Nothing to really get excited about. This offseason is different. There is a such a positive vibe going into this season. So many good things to take and use for momentum. I've never been more excited about an upcoming season, and I'm willing to bet the players feel that way too. They're going to take that excitement and run with it.

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Mezzaros is out indefinitely for Philly with achilles surgery. If this team really wants Colaiacovo, they need to scoop him up pretty quickly.

It would be nice if we could package a deal for Couturier as our 3rd line center, but that's a pipe dream.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=402546

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At the end of last season JR said he wants a D-man so I suspect we are still shopping. After the signing of Staal,Corvo and Semin the emphasis seemed to shift to obtaining a tough, gritty 4th liner. I still wouldn't be surprised to see us try to grab a D-man next.

I wonder if we will go to training camp and evaluate the team before making further moves.

x

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Jeff Skinner extension posts moved to their own thread here:

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Alright JR has me hooked. Lets not wait for the dust to settle. Lets sign Welsh and go get the tough guy for the bottom 6.

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OK, not that many are on these boards right now....are you? But.....

Not sure if people realize how monumentally huge our offensive potential is this year. If things come together there really are only a handful of teams that can match our firepower. I would argue: Pittsburgh, Philly, Boston, and probably the NYR.

Now I know that offense alone does not win championships, and due to that, I don't quite have us in the league of those teams, but on offense we very much are.

Last year there were, oddly, 100 fifty point forwards in the entire NHL. Seems like a lot until you realize that that means on average 3.3 of them per team.

If our guys stay mostly healthy odds are great that we will have 6. Last year no one team had 6. (There were some caveats).

Pittsburgh had 5 (though one of them was JStaal), however, Crosby was out and Malkin had more than 50 doubled.

Philly had 3 (but they had 2 with 49 and 1 at 47).

Boston had 5.

NYR had 4, but just added Nash. BTW the Rangers are now the Yankees adding Gaborik, Richards and now Nash.

Columbus had 2. One of them was Nash.

Based on pure math, 50 points was a fairly rough cut off for first line numbers: 90 first line spots in the league.

But no matter how you slice it, our entire second line WILL be 50 point guys if they stay mostly healthy. Thus, we will have almost two first lines. And with Tlusty/LaRose (my guess) on the third line, that line, if we can find a center can be one of the top 3rd lines.

Lastly, our defense may not shut down, but it will score. Murphy (my prediction), McBain, Pits, Faulk, yes even Harrison will put up points.

So we are going to light it the heck up.

OK, you don't need 6-7 50 point guys to win the cup. (LA had 3). Generally you need a solid defense to balance the offense. But all of the top teams in 50 point guys made the playoffs comfortably. And right now that sound pretty good.

And what fun burning out the goal light on the way.

Rem, don't get me wrong, I love what you are saying and would love it if we had 7 guys with 50 points, and I agree that all of these guys have the ability to do so.

Just remember that the limiting factor for all of these guys doing it at the same time is oddly enough, each other. After you get a 3 goal lead, most teams shut it down and protect the lead. The reason we had so many 20 goal scorers the year we won the cup was Lav. He never took his foot off the gas. The primary reason given that JR threw him away (his worst move ever).

Anyways, I think that is the factor more than anything that will limit the ability for all of the guys to have huge numbers. I don't think JR or Captain Kirk will want to win games 9-8 like Winterpeg did last season. It's entertaining... I love it... but it gives coaches and GMs heartburn.

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Rem, don't get me wrong, I love what you are saying and would love it if we had 7 guys with 50 points, and I agree that all of these guys have the ability to do so.

Just remember that the limiting factor for all of these guys doing it at the same time is oddly enough, each other. After you get a 3 goal lead, most teams shut it down and protect the lead. The reason we had so many 20 goal scorers the year we won the cup was Lav. He never took his foot off the gas. The primary reason given that JR threw him away (his worst move ever).

Anyways, I think that is the factor more than anything that will limit the ability for all of the guys to have huge numbers. I don't think JR or Captain Kirk will want to win games 9-8 like Winterpeg did last season. It's entertaining... I love it... but it gives coaches and GMs heartburn.

Well the top 2 lines are scoring lines and their are three points given out on most goals. So if you are feeding the puck to Semin or Skinner and they score you get a point. The skill of the linemate is a bonus really, especially if he is a finisher. Just ask PA Parenteau, who put up 67 largely feeding Tavares. 50 points is very strong, but not really huge it's about .6 ppg. The top 90 forwards in the league all had over 50 last year.

I really think we'll have at least 5 guys do it, which would be top 3-4 in the league most years. But i would not be surprised if we had 6 guys do it. Jussi has averaged 55 points the last 3 years (part of why I don't put him on the third line). Semin has averaged 64 the last 6 years and only put up under 50 the year he only played 63 games (he put up 42). E.Staal and Skinner are locks. JStaal as the second line center is a huge favorite to do it. He put up 49 two early years almost entirely on the checking line and 50 last year...in 62 games. I really can't see any of those 5 not hitting 50 if they play at least 65 games.

Anyway, I do get what you're saying about sitting on the lead, but goals still happen as we counter punch the openings of other team's pressing. And the top two lines are going to get a lot of ice time and look to score. We have so much talent in our top 5 that I just don't see how they can help themselves.

The real question to me is how many can break 65 points. That's roughly top 30. Skinner put up 63 his first year at age 18. Jussi put up 65 two years ago. I think EStaal and Skinner are very very likely, with Semin and JStaal likely, and Jussi possible.

And how many can get near 80. That's superstar territory. E.Staal and Semin have both done that. Skinner will at some point.

Hey I am crazy about JR's moves up front and I am a fan full of optimism, but it's not pie in the sky. We really have that much firepower now.

Edited by remkin

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With CBA issues still pending does anyone know if "Camp Brindy" is going to happen this year...always such a great opportunity for my young one to meet players, and get some autographs/pics.

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Camp Brindy started 8/22 last year..Dalpe etc...On the RCI schedule no time is reserved through 8/29 this year..so I think 'delayed' or NO 'Camp Brindy'.

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Anybody else think there could be a deal between Carolina and San Jose around Stewart for Murray. They need bottom nine forwards badly, and all signs are pointing to them willing to deal Murray.

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Anybody else think there could be a deal between Carolina and San Jose around Stewart for Murray. They need bottom nine forwards badly, and all signs are pointing to them willing to deal Murray.

Did you see this somewhere or are you proposing it? IMO it could be a win-win deal. As for the Canes, it would give us toughness on defense while relieve some of our bottom six logjam!...Stewart, Nodl, Bowman, Dwyer, LaRose, Wallace, etc. Of course, it will increase our defensive roster numbers.

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Did you see this somewhere or are you proposing it? IMO it could be a win-win deal. As for the Canes, it would give us toughness on defense while relieve some of our bottom six logjam!...Stewart, Nodl, Bowman, Dwyer, LaRose, Wallace, etc. Of course, it will increase our defensive roster numbers.

Just contemplating it. It kinda makes sense to me. Carolina might have to add just a tad (mid/late round pick, perhaps), but Murray is the kind of dman we need. He's a little slow, but a great hitter.

Of course, that would give us:

Gleason Corvo

Pitkanen Faulk

Harrison Murray

McBain

Murphy

Sanguinetti

Someone would have to go.. Philly is pretty desperate for D. Think we could put something together around McBain for Simmonds? Maybe McBain, Tlusty for Simmonds Shelley (our enforcer). Too much?

Semin E.Staal Ruutu

Skinner J.Staal Jokinen

LaRose Welsh Simmonds

Shelley Brent Dwyer

Edited by jeromeo87

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Someone would have to go.. Philly is pretty desperate for D. Think we could put something together around McBain for Simmonds? Maybe McBain, Tlusty for Simmonds Shelley (our enforcer). Too much?

No way would Philly let Simmonds go after his performance last year. We'd have a better chance of getting Cole back.

Edited by Blinding

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Alright JR has me hooked. Lets not wait for the dust to settle. Lets sign Welsh and go get the tough guy for the bottom 6.

I would still like to see Jason Arnott as a Cane. He can still put up some numbers and he has the size to cause havoc in front of the net.

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Seems like we have reached a point where everyone is waiting for the season to begin and the CBA agreement. We all can agree that we have a much better team and coaching staff heading into this season. That being said, who got worse? If you believe we are the 8th place team, then who are the four that will drop down. Pick and name the teams we have to jump to get to the spot you believe we will end up. Good luck all!

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the chance for a lockout has me bummed out, and ticked at both owners and players, if it happens.. I think when we play,us contending for the division..

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Seems like we have reached a point where everyone is waiting for the season to begin and the CBA agreement. We all can agree that we have a much better team and coaching staff heading into this season. That being said, who got worse? If you believe we are the 8th place team, then who are the four that will drop down. Pick and name the teams we have to jump to get to the spot you believe we will end up. Good luck all!

I don't see how NJ hasn't gotten worse. Losing Parise is bad enough, but they haven't signed anyone to replace him so they can't even pretend to have made up for the loss.

Additionally, Brodeur is a year older and he'll have to be their best player all year for them to have a shot at the playoffs. If he's shaky like he was last year, they're pretty much out of luck.

Nashville still has a shot at making the postseason despite losing Suter, but it'll be tough. They're still pretty much intact up front so they should still be pretty tough to beat. But yeah, losing a guy like Suter is going to leave a mark.

Washing ton is a bit tough to call. They lost a legit top 6 in Semin, but it could be argued that he was bad fit for that team anyway, so it might not be as bad as all that.

Their goaltending is questionable, but it could be pretty good, so we'll see. I think Washington will be just about the same as last year, but they could be a team that falls off a bit as well.

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After all the excitement now it's soooooo boring. Tumbleweed.gif

So I'll post this into the ether.

We have added a ton of offense (so long as LaRose is not our first line winger th_backpeddling1.gif)

Will it be enough? Yes. But to be elite we need to shut down a touch more also.

So last year all teams with a positive goal differential made the playoffs in both conferences (two teams with negative differentials made it in the East (Florida/Wash). (BTW Florida #3 seed with a minus 24? Wow. That ain't happening again. And also BTW the entire SouthEast was negative and by a lot. With no one improving more than us, we should be strongly favored to take the SE).

I figure we have picked up a net of just under 30 goals with Semin/Staal/NEW 3rd line center vs. LaRose/Tlusty/Sutter in the top 6 plus 3rd line center.

Ironically, we were exactly -30 last year. So just based on those pick ups, we should be at even, which makes the playoffs. However, I also expect more goals from Jussi, Skinner, EStaal and Ruutu. So we should be in the playoffs on offensive gains alone.

However, we will need to do at least a slightly better job on shots against to be significantly positive.

I have to think that our +/- numbers improved in the back half under Muller, but I don't know for sure.

So, if the Muller effect is worth at least 10 fewer goals against, and back checking forwards worth 5 fewer, and we gain 30 more goals from Semin/Staal and EStaal, Jussi, Skinner and Ruutu add at least 25 more than last year, we will swing from -30 to +40.

If so that would make us the 5th best team in the league last year. grin.gif

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Problem I forsee is that teams that are offensive juggernauts sink fast in the playoffs lately.

Might be because the rules change in the playoffs. What do we do then?

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Problem I forsee is that teams that are offensive juggernauts sink fast in the playoffs lately.

Might be because the rules change in the playoffs. What do we do then?

That might be when the trade line deals come into play. If we are in a position to make the playoffs we should know by then if we look soft defensively or lack one area or another.

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Don't get me wrong. The dominant teams have both offense and defense, but the "defense wins championships" is overrated.

Every year is different. Yes, last year, the two finalists were near the bottom in Goals for during the regular season, BUT

1. That was unusual

2. Both NJ and LA found their offense in the playoffs. LA was #3 in Goals per game in the playoffs and NJ #4. Still LA was also potent on defense, and so they dominated.

2010-11

The clear cut offense only team last year was TampaBay. The went to game 7 of the ECF and easilly could have been in the cup finals.

But the 4 finalists were #1, #6, #7, #8 in offense that regular season.

09-10

mixed

4 finalists: 3,4,18,23 but the champs, the Blackhawks were #3.

LA showed what a defensive team could do, but really only because they also found their offense. But most year prior to that, you really need some firepower.

Edited by remkin

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Not the defense I'm worried about.... our size is what I'm worried about when clutch and grab becomes legal again.

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I do agree that the playoffs should be called tighter. Maybe not exactly the same, but close.

Still, the new additions:

A. Semin 6' 2' 209

J. Staal 6' 4' 220

Now Semin will only win a slap fight, but he is big enough to score vs. that clutch and grab.

Jussi put up a few goals last time we made the playoffs.

I could see adding some size in the bottom 6.

We probably won't be the toughest team in the leauge, a brusing 4th line might help a little. Even if we only roll them out when we're ahead. I don't know, I think we'll be ok.

I think our main issue is going to be shots against (and more to the point goals against) at this point. We don't have to be even top 1/3, but at least the top of the bottom third probably gets it done.

Edited by remkin

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