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jeromeo87

2012 Off Season Discussion

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We have to net one more top forward. I doubt we trade any of Staal, Skinner, Ruutu, Jussi or Tlusty (or Sutter). We need to add one to that.

In theory we could trade a guy like Jokinen in say a J Staal trade, and then pick up a winger, but I wonder what Jussi's value is after not putting up many goals last year. Plus JR's track record at replacing people ain't so hot. Plus Jussi and Ruutu both took the home town deal.

Anything's possible, but I don't see moving those guys.

On the #8 pick....for ONE year of Staal is a hugely bad deal for us. For multiple years of Staal, good deal, might even have to buff it a little from our side, but not Ruutu or Jussi. As much as I groan that we aren't picking higher, the #8 pick should net a very very good player, and hopefully the only way we ever pick this high again for a while is if we get someone else's pick. I think JR will be very very hesitant to trade that pick.

Yea rem I don't think we move number 8 unless it's for Nash and I really doubt we go after him. I'm thinking a conditional future pick in J Staal deal that would take effect if we re-sign him.

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Yea rem I don't think we move number 8 unless it's for Nash and I really doubt we go after him. I'm thinking a conditional future pick in J Staal deal that would take effect if we re-sign him.

Think you and rem are both right on the draft. Trading players would be the best way to get Jordan and would make some salary room. With Jordan's comments about wanting to go to Carolina, I'm not sure the Pens would be able to demand a lot in a trade now because he will be a UFA next year and probably headed here anyway.

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We have to net one more top forward. I doubt we trade any of Staal, Skinner, Ruutu, Jussi or Tlusty (or Sutter). We need to add one to that.

In theory we could trade a guy like Jokinen in say a J Staal trade, and then pick up a winger, but I wonder what Jussi's value is after not putting up many goals last year. Plus JR's track record at replacing people ain't so hot. Plus Jussi and Ruutu both took the home town deal.

Anything's possible, but I don't see moving those guys.

On the #8 pick....for ONE year of Staal is a hugely bad deal for us. For multiple years of Staal, good deal, might even have to buff it a little from our side, but not Ruutu or Jussi. As much as I groan that we aren't picking higher, the #8 pick should net a very very good player, and hopefully the only way we ever pick this high again for a while is if we get someone else's pick. I think JR will be very very hesitant to trade that pick.

I'm afraid you are immensely under-valuing J.Staal.. It's probably going to take a lot to get J.Staal here.. I do think the 8th overall pick is in play PLUS one of our forwards. And honestly, as much as I don't like it, I think there is a chance Pittsburgh is going to make us take either Martin or Michalek to finish a deal involving J.Staal. They desperately need cap room.

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I'm afraid you are immensely under-valuing J.Staal.. It's probably going to take a lot to get J.Staal here.. I do think the 8th overall pick is in play PLUS one of our forwards. And honestly, as much as I don't like it, I think there is a chance Pittsburgh is going to make us take either Martin or Michalek to finish a deal involving J.Staal. They desperately need cap room.

Actually I think J Staal is very very valuable. Put him on the second line and he would put up 30+ goals and play both ends.

The thing is the ONE year. That is like a long term rental vs. a guy who could be key for years.

The #8 pick will likely be the 4th or 5th best forward available in the entire draft. (There are about 360 forwards in the league at any given moment). We will get him on an entry contract and he won't be unrestricted for several years.

The key is the length of the deal. IF we can trade and sign him for at least 4 more years, then I probably am undervaluing him, but not sure that the Penguins get full credit for us signing him.

J Staal for one year is not worth giving up the #8 pick overall, not even close. J Staal for 4-5 years is worth more.

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Actually I think J Staal is very very valuable. Put him on the second line and he would put up 30+ goals and play both ends.

The thing is the ONE year. That is like a long term rental vs. a guy who could be key for years.

The #8 pick will likely be the 4th or 5th best forward available in the entire draft. (There are about 360 forwards in the league at any given moment). We will get him on an entry contract and he won't be unrestricted for several years.

The key is the length of the deal. IF we can trade and sign him for at least 4 more years, then I probably am undervaluing him, but not sure that the Penguins get full credit for us signing him.

J Staal for one year is not worth giving up the #8 pick overall, not even close. J Staal for 4-5 years is worth more.

MUCH more. But I see what you're saying. I honestly think J.Staal is one of the best centers in the league. He's just been playing behind Crosby and Malkin.

Regardless, I don't see Pittsburgh trading J.Staal for only our 1st. They know he is very likely to resign with us. I'm sure they would rather keep him for the year than do that deal.

Ruutu PLUS our 1st sounds more like it; though, in all honestly, I think Ruutu's cap hit might scare them away.

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IF this speculation about Jordan Staal wanting to maybe play for the Canes is true, perhaps that would entice other 1st rate players to take a long, hard look at playing in Raleigh.

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This is from a couple days ago in the Pittsburgh Gazette.

Speculating Jordan Staal's summer of '12 by John Toperzer

A general rule of thumb in trading is that the team getting the best player wins. In other words, trading Staal for a competent defenseman, a first-round pick and a backup goalie wouldn’t be worth the trade from a Pittsburgh perspective. The Pens would need a top-flight defender in return
.

Of course it is only one blog writers opinion but he does make a case for what it might take to get J. Staal.

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I'm afraid you are immensely under-valuing J.Staal.. It's probably going to take a lot to get J.Staal here.. I do think the 8th overall pick is in play PLUS one of our forwards. And honestly, as much as I don't like it, I think there is a chance Pittsburgh is going to make us take either Martin or Michalek to finish a deal involving J.Staal. They desperately need cap room.

I think the standard was set last year by columbus when they traded their 1st/vorecek for Jeff Carter. I think it would take a similar deal with either ruutu or jokinen. I think in a trade scenario with pittsburgh, they'd probably want ruutu because his skills fit their style better and he'd be a good fit with malkin. I'd rather keep jokinen anyways because he's the better offensive player and is cheaper.

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Actually I think J Staal is very very valuable. Put him on the second line and he would put up 30+ goals and play both ends.

The thing is the ONE year. That is like a long term rental vs. a guy who could be key for years.

The #8 pick will likely be the 4th or 5th best forward available in the entire draft. (There are about 360 forwards in the league at any given moment). We will get him on an entry contract and he won't be unrestricted for several years.

The key is the length of the deal. IF we can trade and sign him for at least 4 more years, then I probably am undervaluing him, but not sure that the Penguins get full credit for us signing him.

J Staal for one year is not worth giving up the #8 pick overall, not even close. J Staal for 4-5 years is worth more.

The problem I see here, is that you lower the price/value once, because Jordan allegedly wants to play with Eric and that makes Carolina the only possible trade partner, because he may just not resign elsewhere. And then you lower it yet again, because we are only getting one year of him for sure.

You can't really do that, because that one year of Staal, Pitt can still keep or trade to 28 other teams, you still gotta give them something, they can actually use or wait a year.

And then hope that JStaal really enjoyed us valueing him at "some scraps and a conditional 2013 pick" and does not rethink his pro-Carolina stance over that year.

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Of course with any trade scenario so many things have to go right that predicting them to happen is nearly nuts.

That said, I really think that the J. Staal thing has some stuff going for it. It is a hugely magnified JR type deal.

On a big scale it is the kind of deal that JR might like. While J.Staal is certainly not a totally under the radar guy, he might be relatively undervalued. In comparing him with a Nash or Carter, he has not produced at that level yet. But he could have that kind of potential if put in the right situation. If it is true that he wants to come here and he feels strongly about that, it would give JR a slight leg up. He only has one year left on his contract. (PKiller, I think Carter had a long deal, of course the gaining team was picking up a huge salary). That one year though, might allow JR to pick him up for a lot less than otherwise, which JR would like, especially if he knew J. Staal would slgn a new deal (that would be the key piece). If J. Staal will not commit to signing with his new team his value is much lower, and the teams that might be interested will be much fewer. He as a sort of a no-trade in practical terms.

All of this gives JR a shot to pull off a very sweet move. Get J. Staal at a fairly low price, then sign him long term. Boom. Set up the middle for years.

That said, I still don't see moving Jussi or Ruutu. For one thing, one or both would potentially be J.Staal's linemates, and hearing about how well the Canes provided top wingers for his brother one would suspect that having at least good second line wingers would be important to J.Staal's plans to be our second line center. Then there's the fact that Ruutu and Jussi are both undervalued wingers for what they make and that would leave JR with the task of replacing them without breaking the bank, or we'd take a step back and go with another third liner there from the current roster. We don't need steps back. Then there's that class thing. Jussi and Ruutu both took hometown deals to be a part of what we are building. (of course in fairness that applies to Joni also, whom I'd move for Staal if that deal were on the table).

OK, JR could move Jussi or Ruutu. Maybe they approve the deal to play with Malkin/Crosby so it isn't so classless. Maybe.

But the preferable move is to trade where we are fattest with chips: offensive dmen. Pits and McBain come to mind. Who among us would not trade one of them for J. Staal? On a one year deal for Staal that would not be unfair. So we do it and then work like heck to sign Staal, and in effect we get Pits for E.Staal signed for 4-5 years. How is that not a monster deal for us?

BUT, if I am hearing those that know better than me correctly, Pittsburg does not need a puck-mover. Hmmm. So how does it happen?....Three way trade. Find someone who lusts after one of our blueline assets that we will move, and go the three way way. Good old three way.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. For now.

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The problem I see here, is that you lower the price/value once, because Jordan allegedly wants to play with Eric and that makes Carolina the only possible trade partner, because he may just not resign elsewhere. And then you lower it yet again, because we are only getting one year of him for sure.

You can't really do that, because that one year of Staal, Pitt can still keep or trade to 28 other teams, you still gotta give them something, they can actually use or wait a year.

And then hope that JStaal really enjoyed us valueing him at "some scraps and a conditional 2013 pick" and does not rethink his pro-Carolina stance over that year.

Well that whole combination of circumstances does create a fairly unpredictable stew of possible angles.

Yes Pittsburg could trade him elsewhere. But if J Staal won't commit to signing with team x, then he is clearly worth less than if he would sign. So if he will sign with us, and Pittsburg knows that, it would increase the value some, but the actual market is what every other team will pay. If I'm shopping for a car and the dealer knows I really want that car bad, that will have an effect, but the actual market is what they can sell it to someone else for. So if I am a good negotiator, I should be able to get it for the market price, even though we both know I really want the car. He can keep saying "I know this car is worth more to you than anyone else." And I keep saying, "Probably true, but I am not paying much over the fair price."

I am not saying we don't give them anything. If we could three way the value to another team, the relative value of a McBain or Pitkanen is far from nothing, especially for a guy who is only under contract for one year.

Finally, while it is true Pittsburg could just keep him or trade him to one of 28 other teams, if he doesn't sign, we can still get him as a FA in one year. So JR can say, 'look, I want to make a fair deal, but remember, there is a pretty good chance we could pick him up next year and give up nothing, and we can't be sure we'll be able to sign him. But the one thing we know for sure is he isn't staying in Pittsburg. Now Blanktown has agreed to trade winger x to us for McBain, I know you like winger x. What do you say to a little three way?"

Edited by remkin

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It wouldn't make sense for Pittsburgh to take another offensive dman. They are already loaded with them, and on the blue line in general. And they need cap space. I think it'd be something like the pick plus some. (prospect?)

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The Pittsburgh Gazette article ignores Staal's comment that if the Pens want to trade him, he prefers to go to Carolina and the potential impact that could have on his value. It's been fun talking about Jordan's possible availability. I think he's a great talent unfortunately playing behind a couple of greater talents.

As already posted, Jordan will most likely be re-signed long-term by the Pens, Parise with the Devils, and Nash will go to the highest bidding, big-market team like NYR. JR gave himself a little wiggle room in his interview with the caveat that he'll try for a top tier young forward this summer or if none available, then next summer (my paraphrasing).

If my assumption on resignings is correct, there's slim pickings of any other top, young FA forwards this summer. JR may have to trade for a tier 1 forward like the Ducks' Perry or Ryan, etc. Think Jussi will be the highest available forward asset. Ruutu is probably to valuable to the Canes objectives to be made available. The 3rd and 4th lines (except Sutter) would of course be available, although JR spoke well of Dwyer and Welch in his interview.

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Well that whole combination of circumstances does create a fairly unpredictable stew of possible angles.

Yes Pittsburg could trade him elsewhere. But if J Staal won't commit to signing with team x, then he is clearly worth less than if he would sign. So if he will sign with us, and Pittsburg knows that, it would increase the value some, but the actual market is what every other team will pay. If I'm shopping for a car and the dealer knows I really want that car bad, that will have an effect, but the actual market is what they can sell it to someone else for. So if I am a good negotiator, I should be able to get it for the market price, even though we both know I really want the car. He can keep saying "I know this car is worth more to you than anyone else." And I keep saying, "Probably true, but I am not paying much over the fair price."

I am not saying we don't give them anything. If we could three way the value to another team, the relative value of a McBain or Pitkanen is far from nothing, especially for a guy who is only under contract for one year.

Finally, while it is true Pittsburg could just keep him or trade him to one of 28 other teams, if he doesn't sign, we can still get him as a FA in one year. So JR can say, 'look, I want to make a fair deal, but remember, there is a pretty good chance we could pick him up next year and give up nothing, and we can't be sure we'll be able to sign him. But the one thing we know for sure is he isn't staying in Pittsburg. Now Blanktown has agreed to trade winger x to us for McBain, I know you like winger x. What do you say to a little three way?"

The one thing not in the equation is the fact that after next season we're going have to pay skinner at least 4mil per season. I can't envision this team paying staal, staal, skinner, ruutu, and potential FA Winger all over 4mil per season. Also in regards to o-dmen, i know how pittsburgh plays, and joni and mcbain aren't physical enough to play for them. The only dmen that fits them are gleason/harrison.

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With the way this minimum salary cap keeps going up we might actually find them paying this.

Edited by legend-1

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The Pens don't have to clear cap space until after next season. The scenario if I read it correctly is Sid and Staal both are up for contracts after next season and Malkin the following. They could wait until trade deadline or at least until the new CBA is announced. The idea that they can get more for J. Staal now then at trade deadline may be true but they don't have to do anything right now.

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The one thing not in the equation is the fact that after next season we're going have to pay skinner at least 4mil per season. I can't envision this team paying staal, staal, skinner, ruutu, and potential FA Winger all over 4mil per season. Also in regards to o-dmen, i know how pittsburgh plays, and joni and mcbain aren't physical enough to play for them. The only dmen that fits them are gleason/harrison.
1. Just to reiterate also for Sucka punched, I'm not saying McBain or Pits to Pitts. I'm saying three way trade. 2. I agree that we are unlikey to pay J Staal, E. Staal, and a top flight first line winger. We have room in the cap but won't. If we get J Staal, we likely stop and reshuffle up front. But if we are able to get J Staal, we could try to find a "value" winger. Sure J Staal is unlikely as is any specific move. All I can say is we better do something significant. Edited by remkin

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This is all wishful thinking...take the last name off the kid in pittsburgh and we wouldnt even be posting this...what do we wanna be the second coming of the sedin twins? trade sounds fun but as these playoffs are evolving it seems to me we need to look more at a Parise out of new jersey or a Nash out of Columbus ?:shakeshead:

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This is all wishful thinking...take the last name off the kid in pittsburgh and we wouldnt even be posting this...what do we wanna be the second coming of the sedin twins? trade sounds fun but as these playoffs are evolving it seems to me we need to look more at a Parise out of new jersey or a Nash out of Columbus ?:shakeshead:

Disagree with your first statement but agree with your second. Jordan Staal is a force onto himself, not just because his last name is Staal. Although, I do wish they could be as good as the Sedins. But I do think a top winger should be JR's priority and Jordan would be incremental to that star.

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This is all wishful thinking...take the last name off the kid in pittsburgh and we wouldnt even be posting this...what do we wanna be the second coming of the sedin twins? trade sounds fun but as these playoffs are evolving it seems to me we need to look more at a Parise out of new jersey or a Nash out of Columbus ?:shakeshead:

J. Staal had 6 goals in one short first series. If you want to talk about playoff performers, Staal is better then Nash (4 games 1g-2a-3pts). Parise (48 games 17-19-36pts) is tied with J. Staal (73 games 23g-13g-36pts) in points, but bests Parise in goals.

The reason I believe it can happen is the fact this is probably the only chance he'll get at Jordan. Whether he somehow signs him later, or trades for him sooner.

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Canes 1st pick (8th) and R. Murphy for J. Staal...

Would that be a good trade for us/Pens?

As mentioned, Staal has one more year left on his Pens contract.

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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I can never tell if my forum time is right but if you really posted at 4:39 am....geez goto bed haha

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How good is J.Staal offensively? How about some patented Remkin special projection stats?

J Staal put up 25 goals in 62 games this year. He then potted 6 goals in 6 playoff games. Add those together and there is 31 actual goals in 68 games played. Now apply the projection at that rate over 82 games and you get....37 goals. That would tie him for #5 in the league with the likes of Kovalchuk, and one behind Ovechkin, and well above brother Eric. And that is from the third line. And he was plus 11, good for 7th on the team despite being on the checking line.

The main knock would be that he hasn't been much of a playmaker, but then again, he's on the third line.

I had thought that J.Staal being on the third line might cause GM's to slightly undervalue him, but he plays on a high visibility team, and I'm sure that GM's can do my higher math, so I'm not so sure about that.

However, the one year left and the stuck behind Malkin/Crosby and the wanting to play with Eric, at least gives us a shot.

Those who are thinking Parise or Nash, sure, it would be great, and in terms of on the ice probably better, but their humungous salaries would be an issue, and with them we have zero inside track. And if we don't get a Nash/Parise type guy, the drop off will sail way past the level of J. Staal I can guarantee that.

Clearly I would rather have a Nash or Parise because I favor the powerful top line and want to see Staal actually play with the new guy, but if it came down to JStaal or having JR go top line bargain hunting...that's easy.

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How good is J.Staal offensively? How about some patented Remkin special projection stats?

J Staal put up 25 goals in 62 games this year. He then potted 6 goals in 6 playoff games. Add those together and there is 31 actual goals in 68 games played. Now apply the projection at that rate over 82 games and you get....37 goals. That would tie him for #5 in the league with the likes of Kovalchuk, and one behind Ovechkin, and well above brother Eric. And that is from the third line. And he was plus 11, good for 7th on the team despite being on the checking line.

The main knock would be that he hasn't been much of a playmaker, but then again, he's on the third line.

I had thought that J.Staal being on the third line might cause GM's to slightly undervalue him, but he plays on a high visibility team, and I'm sure that GM's can do my higher math, so I'm not so sure about that.

However, the one year left and the stuck behind Malkin/Crosby and the wanting to play with Eric, at least gives us a shot.

Those who are thinking Parise or Nash, sure, it would be great, and in terms of on the ice probably better, but their humungous salaries would be an issue, and with them we have zero inside track. And if we don't get a Nash/Parise type guy, the drop off will sail way past the level of J. Staal I can guarantee that.

Clearly I would rather have a Nash or Parise because I favor the powerful top line and want to see Staal actually play with the new guy, but if it came down to JStaal or having JR go top line bargain hunting...that's easy.

Good analysis rem. J Staal was definitely a scorer in Juniors and seems to have found his NHL scoring touch from the checking line of all places. Believe he would really bloosom if he was on a scoring line and you would probably see his assists go up too.

However, I hope JR can get that star winger 1st, then go for Jordan and a contract extension. Of course a trade for Staal may present itself at Draft time before FA opens up, but JR needs to be menatlly committed to that tier 1 forward even if the trade happens first.

If he can't get that star, I hope he doesn't feel like he has to settle for a "good" winger ... we have those, so wait until next year for another shot at a star.

Edited by Bill_B

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A lot of Pittsburgh people, including Josh Yohe (beat writer for the Pens) have said it's going to take something around Sutter and our 1st round pick to get J.Staal. Thoughts?

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