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jeromeo87

2012 Off Season Discussion

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Nice list Coastal, don't forget Joni. We didn't draft him but he's another #1 on our roster.

Joni Pitkanen - 2002 - 1st round (4th overall) by the Philadelphia Flyers

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After looking at that list, its easy to see how this team could be a couple of pieces away from putting it all together. Sure makes you wonder what might have been if some of the young players were managed a little better but there's no crystal ball and some were given every opportunity to prove themselves and didn't.

This team is ripe for a big off season deal be it through trade or free agency. We already have plenty of proven high draft picks in the line up and although it never hurts to restock the farm, the Canes need a guaranteed NHL ready player who can be a difference maker. Whatever pick we end up getting this year isn't going to be that guy so I don't put a lot on wins and losses at this point. Better they end the season on a good note and feel good about how far they've come as a group heading into the off season.

Let JR do his job as hes promised this off season. It might not translate into Parise or Suter but I feel confident he'll be in the mix for whatever top talent is out there this summer.

Edited by TSA

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<nice list snipped>

Now we need some complimentary pieces. Now, not later, now. I have to believe upper level management knows this, they are smart folks, and are going to pull the trigger at making the team better without handicapping themselves with this el-cheapo budget.

----------------------------------------------------------

At least that's what my gut tells me.

Very nice post, Coastal. Good summary.

I want to remind people what JR's gut told him last summer. Rutherford sees Hurricanes as a playoff team

Let's hope he's learned some lessons. The familiar article is worth a re-read. I had to laugh at this part:

Look for Maurice to pay special attention to the club's defensive-zone coverage this preseason, particularly since Carolina allowed more shots on goal (33.2 a game) last season than any team in the NHL.

The article's headline is more optimistic than JR's actual quote:

"Will we make it? I don't know because I know what goes into making the playoffs. But we certainly have a better team than we had last year and we're a team that certainly can be a playoff team."

He's a realist. Now, I'd like to see him make the moves to be more confident and put more expectations on this team. As Coastal's list shows, we're done with rebuilding from the draft. We need a few more pieces and then a run.

Cam and Eric are not getting any younger. Let's not waste them in their absolute prime years.

Edited by wxray1

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After looking at that list, its easy to see how this team could be a couple of pieces away from putting it all together. Sure makes you wonder what might have been if some of the young players were managed a little better but there's no crystal ball and some were given every opportunity to prove themselves and didn't.

This team is ripe for a big off season deal be it through trade or free agency. We already have plenty of proven high draft picks in the line up and although it never hurts to restock the farm, the Canes need a guaranteed NHL ready player who can be a difference maker. Whatever pick we end up getting this year isn't going to be that guy so I don't put a lot on wins and losses at this point. Better they end the season on a good note and feel good about how far they've come as a group heading into the off season.

Let JR do his job as hes promised this off season. It might not translate into Parise or Suter but I feel confident he'll be in the mix for whatever top talent is out there this summer.

When you look at Coastal's list of "talent", you'd think the Canes would be at least the 7th or 8th playoff team each year and we would be a couple of pieces away from being in the top 4 teams. Now we're talking about needing a couple of guys just to make the playoffs instead of bringing up the rear of the Southleast.

Just like in business, it's results that count. You can work your rear off but if you don't get results, ie: wins, it is for naught. IMO the fault lies with management in putting together these quality players into a cohesive team with chemistry.

Now they have Brindy, Glen, and Francis working with the younger guys ... look what was done with our faceoffs alone! Let's hope JR will get a Parise and a Suter caliber guys in the off-season along with another consistent 20-goal scoring forward.

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Coastal your list hammers home the undeniable fact that we have been rebuilding. I couldn't agree more that the time to add the missing pieces is now. I'm a little more cautious about upper management being able to accomplish it but I agree they have to know the time to try and score an elite talent or two is now.

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Remkin, if you can't see the difference in being so bad for so many years you continually have the top 1 or 2 picks and our situation I just don't know what to say.

Pittsburgh got Crosby and Malkin, yes. They also almost left town. I'll repeat that. Yes Pittsburgh almost left town. Chicago is another uber market that could afford to have 3/4 of their arena empty for 5 or 6 years.

Then there's Edmonton, who is apparently so mismanaged they can't win despite themselves. Three top-3 picks and they can't even field a defense. They are probably still years away, and that's after getting another of your "elite" picks this year.

Then you casually brush aside the Isles, Tampa Bay, and the Thrashers\Jets. More teams who have had their chance at your elite draft pick but are no closer to anything than the bottom of the conference.

And take this year. You would rather suck as bad as Columbus, Montreal, Edmonton, Minnesota just for a chance at one guy? There is a price to pay, and getting these elite talents you mention is not as casual as losing or dropping a few games. It's losing A LOT of games.

Coastal if you cant see the fairly easy logic in my argument, and others also, then I guess I'll just stop posting them so as not to annoy people.

I will try to make it a clean argument.

I do not favor us dwelling in the basement for years to try to become competitive. That is a different argument. That is a legit argument, and the downside is very very bad, with empty buildings and disengaged fan bases for year. But since I don't favor us doing that, the argument about Pittsburgh vs. Detroit is a canard. There are legitimate arguments on both sides of that one. People point out Detroit, but there are far more teams that have languished in mediocrity for years by never putting together enough talent. And teams like Edmonton who are going the top draft route are still in the cycle. It is too early to expect their 18 and 19 year olds to put it together. And yes there is a chance that teams are so inept that they can't even put together a team with 5 #1 picks, but imaging those teams without them. But I am NOT saying "lets stink for 5 years", so why am I getting into this? OK nevermind that...

What I am saying is that if you have a sub mediocre team, but some really solid pieces, and you go out and lay a "egg" and get yourselves out of the playoffs early. And if you really don't think your roster is set up to compete at a high level yet. And if just about the only way you can add elite forwards is through the draft because you cannot add big name free agents, and if you are one or two forwards away from being really good. It is better for the team to drop a few more games ONE time and get that top draft pick than it is to win a few more games that year.

The evidence that winning games at the end of the season does not lead to wins the next year is right in front of our noses. This team since the cup. Always goes on nice little meaningless runs at the end of the year. Almost always starts slow the next year. Went deep in the playoffs. Started horrendous the next year.

Dropping a few meaningless games at the end of the year and getting a Skinner or Staal instead of a Boychuk? Why is this not obvious?

And before everyone jumps in with the you play to win thing. Yes, I agree. The team cannot tank. The coach cannot coach to lose. And there's not much I would have done differently except probably play the back up goalie more. If the GM puts prospects and young guys out there and we win. So be it.

All I'm saying is that it would be better on average to lose more and get a higher pick this one time when the season is already shot.

There is nothing about that that means we have to have bad management. There is nothing about that that says that drafting higher is worth more than good management and scouting. They are not mutually exclusive.

All am saying is that there comes a point in certain seasons where drafting higher increases the chance of success more than winning late season games in a non playoff year.

Edited by remkin

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Since 2002:

2002: Cam Ward, 1st round, 25th overall

2003: Eric Staal, 1st round, 2nd overall

2004: Andrew Ladd, 1st round, 4th overall (now Ruutu, 1st round, 9th overall)

2005: Jack Johnson, 1st round, 3rd overall (now Gleason, 1st round, 23rd overall)

2006: Jamie McBain, 2nd round, 63rd overall

2007: Brandon Sutter, 1st round, 11th overall

2007: Drayson Bowman, 3rd round, 73rd overall

2008: Zach Boychuk, 1st round, 14th overall

2008: Zac Dalpe, 2nd round, 45th overall

2009: Phillipe Paradis, 1st, 27th overall (now Tlusty, 1st round, 13th overall)

2009: Brian Dumoulin, 2nd round, 51st overall

2010: Jeff Skinner, 1st round, 7th overall

2010: Justin Faulk, 2nd round, 37th overall

2011: Ryan Murphy, 1st round, 12th overall

2011: Victor Rask, 2nd round, 42nd overall

3 "elite picks" (Ward, Staal, Skinner), 2 really high round picks (Ruutu, Gleason), 4 mid-1st rounders (Sutter, Boychuk, Tlusty, Murphy), 2 second round steals (Faulk, McBain), and 2 very promising up-and-coming 2nd rounders (Dumoulin, Rask).

That's almost half of our current roster (bolded names) obtained through the draft.

----------------------------------------------------------

I contend we have had elite picks, and haven't done poorly for ourselves through the draft (particularly recently). And the future looks even brighter if a couple more of these guys develop (sans Dalpe, Murphy, Dumoulin, Rask) in the short term. Picking 5-9 this year also isn't as crappy as some would lead you to believe.

The Canes biggest issue, IMO, has been adding complimentary pieces, and to a lesser extent, player development (Mo was awful at this). And thirdly, you can't discount our market, because it is has been an extenuating circumstance that is what it is (el-cheapo, etc.).

I think we are right there at turning the corner, I really do. Things are falling into place - better drafting, better player development, a good core group of young players, more stable ownership, a proud and loyal fanbase, revenues.

Now we need some complimentary pieces. Now, not later, now. I have to believe upper level management knows this, they are smart folks, and are going to pull the trigger at making the team better without handicapping themselves with this el-cheapo budget.

----------------------------------------------------------

At least that's what my gut tells me.

You are actually right around my point. We have had some elite picks and that's why we are not worse. Take Staal, Ward, Skinner, Ruutu and Gleason off this team and replace with average players.

OR...add one more guy of that level TO those guys.

Here is my point in two sentences.

Great management and skilled drafting beats high picks, but high picks beats winning meaningless end of season games, and getting a high pick does not prove you have bad management. It is possible in just the right scenario for a team to drop down low one time, pick up one more elite pick up, and then get right back to winning.

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:P Who said anyone was annoyed? In fairness to my posts, your the one who has been posting the tank thing for months now, right? So putting that into perspective, it's not like you all of a sudden you just mean the last few games here.

Wasn't it only a few months ago, when Muller came on board and was trying to right the ship with no results I told you everything (tank-wise) you were asking for was being accomplished?

Well, we are only 2 points from picking fourth right now. ;)

Columbus - 61

Montreal - 73

Edmonton - 73

NY Isles - 77

Anaheim - 77

Toronto - 77

Minnesota - 78

Carolina - 78

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remkin I can assure you I'm not annoyed by your point of view. I'm sure there are many Canes fans who feel the same way. I'm just not one of them. I think we have done a reasonable job building through the draft and it is now time to look for experienced players who can make our young team stronger.

You can't play to lose and although management can play some tricks to give you a better chance to lose I think that is counter productive. Winning is a culture and the only way to set the tone for that kind of culture is to win. That's why I think it is more important not to tank in an effort to get a better draft pick. But if it does happen I won't be disappointed to have a top 5 pick. Even if we did get a top 5 pick we will still need to go shopping for next year,

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JR decided to not "Fail for Nail" or "tank" by firing Mo and hiring Muller.

Done deal. Team must move forward with winning culture. It would be great to get a better draft pick, but JR decided on something else by firing Mo. He could have let Mo hang around to assure a better draft pick, but there would be picketing on Edwards Mill Road.

Now JR has to finish the job this summer.

And I'm not annoyed by anyone in the current thread participants. This is a good discussion.

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And let's don't be so quick to dismiss picking at worst, 8th, as a failure of sorts.

Picking 8th in any year is nothing to come home and brag to momma about as far as how your season went. But, after you pick 8th, you just might have something to come home and brag to momma about.

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:P Who said anyone was annoyed? In fairness to my posts, your the one who has been posting the tank thing for months now, right? So putting that into perspective, it's not like you all of a sudden you just mean the last few games here.

Wasn't it only a few months ago, when Muller came on board and was trying to right the ship with no results I told you everything (tank-wise) you were asking for was being accomplished?

Well, we are only 2 points from picking fourth right now. ;)

Columbus - 61

Montreal - 73

Edmonton - 73

NY Isles - 77

Anaheim - 77

Toronto - 77

Minnesota - 78

Carolina - 78

Yes! This is my main point. Just a few losses now is all we need to move up. Have our cake (Muller, signing Gleason, Ruutu, JR getting a FA winger crossfing.gif) good managment AND a top pick! That's what I was really posting back somewhere else. We are so close to slipping just a little at the end and moving up. I don't want the guys to fold. I just want them to lose while trying these next few games.

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Dropping a few meaningless games at the end of the year and getting a Skinner or Staal instead of a Boychuk? Why is this not obvious?

And before everyone jumps in with the you play to win thing. Yes, I agree. The team cannot tank. The coach cannot coach to lose. And there's not much I would have done differently except probably play the back up goalie more. If the GM puts prospects and young guys out there and we win. So be it.

How do you propose the team drops a few "meaningless" games at the end of the season and not tank? They are pros and should play to win the games. I didn't spend "meaningless" money to buy tickets and watch them lose "meaningless" games. I agree with playing the prospects, but as long as the Checkers are having a good season and Daniels is developing those guys and they will be getting some playoff experience, I don't think you gut them.

Coastal, your list is great and does show how the Canes is getting better at player selection and development. The thing is that other than those names you have highlighted, the Canes have not added one additional significant player (that I can think of) by trade or free agent signing. JR has signed a bunch of cast offs and 4th line character guys while losing Brindy, Cole, Cullen, Whitney, Walker, etc. Not replacing Cullen (2nd line center) and Cole (1st line winger) with comparable or better players is holding this team back.

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Coastal, your list is great and does show how the Canes is getting better at player selection and development. The thing is that other than those names you have highlighted, the Canes have not added one additional significant player (that I can think of) by trade or free agent signing. JR has signed a bunch of cast offs and 4th line character guys while losing Brindy, Cole, Cullen, Whitney, Walker, etc. Not replacing Cullen (2nd line center) and Cole (1st line winger) with comparable or better players is holding this team back.

v v v Yes, and I thought I already covered that point. ;) TSA added Pitkanen, another first rounder, acquired through trade.

The Canes biggest issue, IMO, has been adding complimentary pieces, and to a lesser extent, player development (Mo was awful at this). And thirdly, you can't discount our market, because it is has been an extenuating circumstance that is what it is (el-cheapo, etc.).

Edited by coastal_caniac

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v v v Yes, and I thought I already covered that point. ;)

Sorry I agreed with you and explained it. It will never happen again.

Seriously, some players are going to retire/age out and somebody needs to be able to fill those slots. Players that are lost through free agency need to be replaced in some way too. The picks/prospects can probably be enough to take care of some of this, but unless you bat a thousand on draft choices, it isn't going to be enough without signing some quality free agents.

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Coastal your list hammers home the undeniable fact that we have been rebuilding. I couldn't agree more that the time to add the missing pieces is now. I'm a little more cautious about upper management being able to accomplish it but I agree they have to know the time to try and score an elite talent or two is now.

+1 and completely agree.

My concern is that we have too many signed marginal players through next season that are filling needed roster spots. JR has to deal with that, and upgrade via FA. We'll see.

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How do you propose the team drops a few "meaningless" games at the end of the season and not tank? They are pros and should play to win the games. I didn't spend "meaningless" money to buy tickets and watch them lose "meaningless" games. I agree with playing the prospects, but as long as the Checkers are having a good season and Daniels is developing those guys and they will be getting some playoff experience, I don't think you gut them.

I probably should just :whiteflag: do this and be done with it. There are too many slippery slopes in these arguments.

I don't want the players to tank ever. I don't even want the coach to try to tank, ever. But it wouldn't kill us to rest Cam a little more,or give anyone nursing an injury a day off. I agree that JR and the team did play prospects and in general there's not too much that can be done since as I've mentioned about a million times I don't want players to tank. But that doesn't mean that at the end of the day a couple of losses wouldn't be better if they led to us getting a better player in the draft.

I'm just tired of the mediocrity. Sure Coastal's list offers some good hope. We haven't been terrible, but we really haven't been an honest to goodness top tier team since the cup. I want that more than I want to beat Ottawa tonight. I'm committed to this team already through the entirety of next year, and I want us to be good, and make the playoffs, next year and moving forward.

I will say that the Fail for Nail idea is too much. I am glad that we fired Mo (I did call for it during the offseason, better late than never), and it would not be better if this team remained the disaster it was. Our improvement and movement of Mo probably secured Gleason and Ruutu, and improved our chance for what I really want: a top FA.

The higher the pick the better the odds of landing a game changer for years to come. But no one really wants to think about that now, so fine: :whiteflag:

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Last night Muller paired Faulk with Gleason during the game. I wonder if that is the pairing we can expect next season and what it means to Allen.

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Remkin, looking on the bright side of losing and actually rooting for the team to lose are two different things. The latter crosses a line most would not cross. I still am PO'ed about last Saturday and will be for a long time. If that fits into your hopes, I feel sorry for you as a fan.

Coastal, thanks for posting that list. I have been meaning to do something like that for a while. I counted at the beginning of the year when Murphy (maybe Boychuk) was on the roster and we had something like 12 or 13 first rounders on the roster at the time. I think it's 11 or 12 now (including Stewart, Allen and Boucher as well as Pitkanen). And yes, our drafting has been decent for quite a while. It's the missing pieces from free agency that are killing this team, even more than what Mo did (though he was obviously the wrong coach for a young team). I have little doubt that if Whitney and Cole were still here we'd have been in the playoffs both last year and this. Both those guys would have signed the contracts they eventually did if they had been offered them here, and neither was an outlandish offer. But with the austerity budget inflicted by PK and enacted by JR, here is where we are. Fortunately, they seem to have finally figured out that 1) it is better to keep and maybe even slightly overpay the character guys that you have that produce, because 2) if you want to improve your results, you have to acquire more than you let go. Then again, I'm not sure they didn't already know that and were just intentionally being cheap due to overspending in 09-10. Whatever, I just hope they deal with it over the summer.

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So, has anyone heard anything else Parise and/or Suter?

Here's something to ponder - IF JR can sign either Parise OR Suter, which one should he go for? I understand that most people here shout "Parise!" and not think twice; perhaps we should think twice.

Carolina hasn't had a dman like Suter since probably their Whaler days. Yes, yes - the Hurricanes need a first line winger over ANYTHING else. It's my belief that JR is in a position to trade for that player IF he can sign Suter. One of either McBain or Pitkanen will be available for trade (especially if we are able to get a guy like Suter). Package one of those guys with a 2nd, Boychuk, Peters, Daple... whatever you want to package them with, and you have yourself a first line winger.

Some have mentioned that JR and PK might be trying to go after Parise AND Suter. Like many here, I doubt that. But I do hope with everything I am that those rumors are correct. With those two guys, we are a consistent playoff team.

Of course, signing both of those guys makes other guys expendable, like McBain and Pitkanen. Perhaps trading one of these guys can bring in a second line center. While I believe we need 2nd line center, I also would like to see how the Skinner Jokinen Ruutu line does for a little while. Perhaps, if this team is in seriously playoff talks, we can add that 2nd line center in the middle of the year.

Also, if we are able to land both Parise and Suter, I would think about packaging McBain, Boychuk, a 2nd, and something else (if necessary) for Edmonton's number 1 pick. On multiple occasions, I've heard Edmonton fans mention McBain as the exact kind of player they are looking for. And by trading for their 1st over pick we would be in a good position to draft Murray. I know, it doesn't sound like JR to draft a dman in the 1st round two years in a row. However, Murray is a defenseman who has skills that we don't really have in the system. He's strictly a shutdown dman. He won't deliver the big hits, but he's very reliable. And with our own pick I would suggest taking Gaunce - pretty safe pick.

Anyway, I haven't posted in a while and had a lot of thoughts. So, there ya go.

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So, has anyone heard anything else Parise and/or Suter?

Here's something to ponder - IF JR can sign either Parise OR Suter, which one should he go for? I understand that most people here shout "Parise!" and not think twice; perhaps we should think twice.

Except for speculation I don't think we will hear much about Parise and Suter. I don't think you are allowed to talk to or about another teams players until June when the FA become fair game.

I think we may go after both but I doubt we have the resources to land both. My preference would be Parise if I had to choose but Suter would change the scope of our defense.

I don't think, in fact I'm fairly certain our team won't be unrecognizable to us when we begin next season but I expect at least 3 changes and perhaps as many as 5.

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Yea I was gonna say it was an idea not even a rumor started by a columnist who has no real feel for how our team operates. So I kinda doubt you'll hear anymore on it.

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