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Greg-N-Ral

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Peters has looked a little more "under control" during this call up.

 

He's improved the last two games.  A lot less wild flapping about.  Sometimes when he gets out of position or goes down, it takes forever for him to find his way back.  Last night, there was barely any of that.

 

My dream would be for Pete Dawg to play solidly the next two weeks or so while he drives the bus.  First, that will give the Canes a chance.  And secondly, there's a good chance JR could get something for a trade.  And third, the kid may finally be able to establish himself somewhere in this league.

 

First things first, he needs to show consistency.   Now is his chance.

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Peters is playing well. He does give up rebounds, but we're getting to them first. 

 

These two wins have kept us in there and averted disaster. 

 

The theme seems to be that this is the defensive game we're looking for so that's great. I'll buy that to a point. Literally one point, If we can only muster one goal per game, it is not going to work for long. So, get the defensive game right, then build, yes, ok, that would work. But the "moneymakers" will definitely get itchy if they can't start generating points. It will come is fine as long as it does.

 

Personally, I'll watch a 1-0 game at home, but generally don't want to pay good money to see two teams shut each other down. This last game was a much better game to watch than the Philly game, but we are going to need to find some offense. I guarantee if a couple of Islander goals had gone in, it would all be about how we can't score. 

 

OK, I'm staying on the "it will come" Island.

 

I just can't help but look at our upcoming schedule and think, "really?".

 

Minnesota (22 points, would be 1st in Eastern Conference)

Colorado (best record (points per game) in the NHL)

Anaheim (most points in the NHL)

St. Louis

Boston

Detroit 

Boston

 

Better keep that d game and find some offense fast.

 

To be honest there really isn't much daylight in the schedule all year. The only month that looks relatively decent is January. 

Edited by remkin

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These boards tend to implode when things aren't going the team's way.  I can't think of anytime in my memory that both NHL goalies on any major team were out due to injury in consecutive seasons, and that is very bad for us in the short term.  In the long term, we haven't had enough games to really see where our goaltending is at.  I do think our defense has improved, but without a NHL quality goalie, it'll be tough to figure out where that game is truly at.  Dobby looked outstanding, Cam didn't really have enough games for us to know about him before his injury.

 

While I understand this thread is about goalies, and I know that there are several Cam Ward detractors aboard....I think its important to note that just like the board's implosion of late, that this team implodes without Cam in net.  In other words, Cam must bring some kind of leadership that is lacking when he is absent.  Without Cam, Offensive production has slipped, and is that because of a lack of confidence in our current goalies by the forward lines?  They're afraid to cheat down, because they don't trust the netminder, and don't want the other team to even get a half step on them?  There are a great deal of pyschological and team integrity issues tied to these goalie injuries which go well beyond the stats, as evidenced by our slide.  The game against Philly the other night might have been a bit of a turning point.  Will Peters gain confidence enough to shut down the Isles?  Will the veteran leadership and FO wins of Manny fuel the forward lines' production?  Can the team move past the goalie injuries, and get in behind Peters and produce?  Tonight will be a test of that muster, and whether or not it is there with a Peters in net Hurricanes team.  This is all the drama that makes watching professional atheletics so intriguing, and frustrating.  The owners want a successful team that has a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, and if that doesn't happen, two things will happen.  1.  There will be coaching/management/team changes 2.  The team feels a lack of support from fans and moves to some city that wants them.  I'd like hockey to stay here, and hate to think of anything that would endanger the sport's existence here in the tarheel state.

 

This is all short-term stuff.  Dobby and Cam will both be back, and then maybe we can truly analyze where this team, and our goalies are at.  I'm as frustrated as many of you are, but I've been watching hockey a long time, and the sport has a lot of ups and downs, and here lately for us, much more downs than ups.  Maybe the team needs some drastic changes, but this season is 82 games long, and we're still early on in the first 1/4 of a long season.  Keep the faith through thick and thin.  Now we know how Whalers fans felt, but they endured, and still love the team, as should we all. 

 

This is incredibly well said.  Intangibles are rampant on this one.  The only way this debate would ever really get settled would be to place a proven goalie such as Brodeur in our system and see what he produced. 

 

The net is that yes, as fans, most of us are knee-jerk types and wear our emotions even in our controlled carefully calculated analysis.  Things look brighter after a couple wins all of a sudden.

 

I'd trade Ward for a puppy. I think 99.99% of all neutral observers would trade Wardo for a puppy, they are cute and fuzzy. They do pee on the floor sometimes though. While Ward has had some messes on the ice, I don't think he has wet himself. You also don't have to get up at night to let him out. Puppies are cute though. They are so fuzzy and lick me on the nose. Ward has never licked me on the nose. This is a toughy, but I'd choose the puppy.

 

Count me in on the 0.01% that says NO to this.  But if you make it TWO puppies then I can't resist... They wrestle and chew on each other, and I'd rather see them chew and lick each other a lot more than seeing Ovenchicken do it to Corey Perry.

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I just can't help but look at our upcoming schedule and think, "really?".

 

Minnesota (22 points, would be 1st in Eastern Conference)

Colorado (best record (points per game) in the NHL)

Anaheim (most points in the NHL)

St. Louis

Boston

Detroit 

Boston

 

Better keep that d game and find some offense fast.

 

To be honest there really isn't much daylight in the schedule all year. The only month that looks relatively decent is January. 

 

For the first time this year, I took at look at sportsclubstats.com, and the prognostications there reflect what you have, Remkin.

 

On that site, the Canes and Islanders are tied with points.  The Isles playoff probability is 42%.  The Canes 25%?  WHY?  Because of this brutal schedule.  The default view for the stats site takes into account weighting based on opponent's record.  On the sidebar, near the top, you can change it to 50/50.  If you do that, the Canes and Islanders fall out to about 46% for both.  (Despite identical records, their prediction isn't the same based on some of the deeper tie breaking rules which the Canes would lose.)

 

We'll see.  It will be a heck of November.

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Allen York pitched a shutout (26 shots) in his debut with the Texas Stars of the AHL. I'm going to try to keep my eye on him for awhile.  Seems like there might be some talent there that is slipping under the radar. 

 

Muse and the Checkers lost 2-1 last night but it sounds like Muse had a pretty good game.  Muse, 3-1 with two shutouts, still leads the AHL in GAA (1.26) and S% (.959).

Edited by LakeLivin

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I noticed Peters was attacking his posts with much more form and using less energy to move around in his crease to cover more ground.

 

When he got here he wasn't handling one timers very well and it's clear the goalie coach took care of that Peters at times looked like he was doing goalie drills out there to a tee...T? I dunno.

 

Next project for Peters is absorbing shots, he covered way to many pucks on the ice last night that he either let fall to the ice off his chest or fumbled with off his chest. If the Isles had been more active in front of the crease I can't help but think that shutout would have been ruined.

 

I think he's doing fine honestly he shut me up 6 games ago. This team is offering him no support (imagine that) and he's taking it in stride. But this 2 game win streak will be over soon if they can't get him some goal support.

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Peters seems like he's becoming more comfortable in goal. Maybe he just needed some time to get adjusted and playing more has helped. Starting once a month just not a good use for backups. The big plus so far is his ability to stop breakaways. 

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His movement has been much more efficient. In the past, he would make a quick spastic move and get himself out of position. He looked like he was in a panic all the time. He is playing a more compact game now. It also seems that he is also not letting the opposition get under his skin as much.

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Guys,

Here is the latest set of stats for our goalies... once again the numbers don't lie...
 
 
JUSTIN PETERS      2.61-GAA     29% winning%,    91.2% save%,   salary=   $538,000
CAM WARD           2.81-GAA     29% winning%,    91.2% save%,   salary= $6,300,000
ANTON KHUDOBIN     2.00-GAA    100% winning%,    92.9% save%,   salary=   $800,000 
 
 
 
As we know, the single best metric to examine to measure a goalie is his save %!  
 
Khudobin remains our best at 92.9%, with Ward-o and Peters tie at 91.2%.
 
Now, when we look at what each goalie is costing us in Cap Room, the numbers really speak volumes.
Cam costs 450% more than K-man and Peters combined (what a waste for the overpriced Cam)!

Hopefully K-man gets back on the ice soon!!

As always, I'll continue to update the numbers from time-to-time. 

Lets go Canes!

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Mike Murphy has a career NHL save % of 1.000. He is obviously the best goalie on the Canes roster, and probably the whole league.

As we know, the single best metric to examine to measure a goalie is his save %!

Edited by super_dave_1

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Here's a thought thrown out there for discussion that is at least a different angle than the usual.

 

Justin Peters is playing fairly well and making saves. But the man leaves more rebounds than a racquetball court. The team is circling back and clearing those rebounds, much to the delight of the defense first folks. 

 

But, and here I am posing a question more than postulating a theory, could the incessant need to circle the wagons in our own end be hurting our offense? Muller said unequivocally that it shouldn't (note, not that it wasn't). 

 

Thus, could it be that if two goalies had similar save %, but one left a ton of rebounds out there that the team had to stay planted in the defensive zone to clean up, that the goalie w/ better rebound control might allow more offense, and thus more wins.

 

And Greg, I think it fair to say, "we get it". But don't you think it is at least fair to point out that Khudoben has TWO starts? I mean I like the guy, but small "n" continues to fog just how good he is or isn't. 

 

In an ideal world all 3 goalies would get to play an entire season as the number one, and at the end of the year we could make a clear cut decision, but that will never happen, so this thread will never go away.  :hairpull:

 

Personally, I am frustrated by Cam's injury history. I do believe that if Cam could roll out about 15 starts w/ only rest interruptions and if he is healthy, he will prove to be the best goalie, especially behind our new found defense. But the dang injuries keep interrupting finding out if this is true or wishful thinking.

Edited by remkin

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Congratulations! You have a post that went overnight without being ripped by the Cam crowd as being heresy.

 

I've never blatantly defended Cam on these boards.  I have regularly pointed out the flaws in Greg's use of statistics to promote his perspective.  Latest example: posting Win Percentage as a stat to measure goalie effectiveness.   That makes no sense since it doesn't reflect points gained from OT or shootout losses. 

Congratulations! You have a post that went overnight without being ripped by the Cam crowd as being heresy.

 

To illustrate the point consider a goalie that gives up 0 goals in 10 games but loses each in a shootout.  Win percentage = 0% even though he helped the team gain 10 points.   Another goalie goes 2-8 for a win percentage of 20% but only 4 points gained.  The first goalie is 2.5 times more effective where it counts in the standings, team points.

 

So is it an accident that Greg posts Win% instead of Points% when both have a Win% of 29% but Ward has generated 7 points in his 7 games (50%) vs. Pete's 4 points in 7 games (29%)?   At first I thought that Greg just didn't understand the appropriate use of stats to justify a position.  But I've since come to believe that Greg is deliberately choosing stats to push an agenda.   

 

Maybe stats don't lie, but they can and are regularly used to mislead (just listen to any politician at the national level).

 

Edit: and of course, there's the problem of sample size.

Edited by LakeLivin

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I guess some see hope in Peters and Khudobin ( understanding sample size may be a problem).  On the other hand some see Ward as a goalie who struggles to be .500 ( large sample size ). 

 

So your point about me congratulating Greg was what?  I get a rip because I agreed with a different opinion?  I guess I was right about others , see Super Dave and his use and over use of the Murphy card . His go to response to Greg's stats.

Edited by winger52

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I guess some see hope in Peters and Khudobin ( understanding sample size may be a problem).  On the other hand some see Ward as a goalie who struggles to be .500 ( large sample size ). 

 

So your point about me congratulating Greg was what?  I get a rip because I agreed with a different opinion?  I guess I was right about others , see Super Dave and his use and over use of the Murphy card . His go to response to Greg's stats.

I just pointed out that some criticisms of some of Greg's posts are legitimate based on methodology and are not a Cam bias.  And I pointed out a specific example of such a flaw in his latest post.  Not only was there no intention to rip you, looking back at the post I still don't see how you interpret it that I did.

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Lake, if it isn't obvious enough, these people LOVE to play the poor victim of abuse card anytime someone points out these ridiculous use of stats are just that, ridiculous.

 

It doesn't matter how nice, or how respectful people's responses are to these kind of posts, there are a few here that only come around to push their agenda to stir the pot.

 

This thread really is the stinky small intestine of this board.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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So your point about me congratulating Greg was what? I get a rip because I agreed with a different opinion? I guess I was right about others , see Super Dave and his use and over use of the Murphy card . His go to response to Greg's stats.

To say I over use (or shall I say, harp on) anything when you are defending Greg's stance is about the funniest thing I have ever heard. If anyone on this board "over uses" anything...well...you see where I'm headed.

You, Greg, and your posse love to cite only the stats that support your theory and ignore the rest (like shots against, TOI, and goals for). You stand by your chosen stats to the bitter end and refuse to have any real discussion. Anyone who says anything that isn't anti-Ward is a Ward apologist in your eyes.

Ward has issues with injury and with sluggish play at times. Ward also continually sees more rubber than just about any goalie in the league. JR gave him too big of a contract too early, which seems to be an issue with the way JR handles the business more than anything else. In trying to lock up young talent, he has some bloated deals. Why blame Ward for his contract? You think a buy out is the answer? This team has to use real money and not the Monopoly money that some teams have.

Yeah, when you cherry pick a stat, so am I. Murphy has a perfect NHL save percentage.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Ok let's clear this up about the number of pucks Cam sees per game. You can do this by the year or by career. Take shots against divided by the number of games played or games started, either one your choice. Compare those numbers to any teams goalie who would be considered their #1. The number of average shots on goal is not that much different for the goalies. Let me know if you are having a hard time with the math.

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There are so many dynamics that go into a hockey game, much less numerous games, that statistics are overused and misleading. We all remember the "sorcery" (still love that one) that had McBain as one of our leading + players.

Don't people trust their own eyes and judgement? This constant use of statistics to compare goalies is absurd. If you want to know who the better goalie is, just watch the games. I think this thread is another part of this forum, it rhymes with grass whole.

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Ok let's clear this up about the number of pucks Cam sees per game. You can do this by the year or by career. Take shots against divided by the number of games played or games started, either one your choice. Compare those numbers to any teams goalie who would be considered their #1. The number of average shots on goal is not that much different for the goalies. Let me know if you are having a hard time with the math.

 

Did I strike a nerve?  I'm pretty good with math.

 

This year the Canes are 19th in the league in shots against.

Last year, 26th.

2011/2012, Canes were 30th.

2010/2011, Canes were 30th.

2009/2010, Canes were 22nd.

2008/2009, Canes were 14th and what happened?  Playoffs...ECF.

 

Now I can do math.  I can look up stats.  Since there are only 30 teams in the league, and 2 of the last 3 years the Canes were dead last in shots against a game, exactly what is your point that Cam Ward doesn't see any more rubber than other starters?

 

Superdave drops mike, and exits the stage.

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Well I guess the part about comparing goalies slipped past you. I said compare Cams average shots per game vs top goalies on other teams. I have done the math. In some cases less than 1 shot per game, some twos and some threes, but lets be over the top and say our "elite" goalie faces 5 more shots on goal per game. Do you really think 5 more shots per game really translate to the difference between playoff teams and where we usually end? I have been to enough games where the Canes were done before 20 shots on goal. I have said before the Canes play Cam too much in a season. Probably should top out at about 60. Also part of the problem has been the Stanley Cup Hangover. In the Canes threw contracts at Cam and Eric that were too long and too much money. Neither one has had a full season in which they lived up to the hype. There are a lot of players in the league doing more for less. For the money they make we should be in the playoffs, not scratching our heads looking for some role player to push these two to perform.

 

And why do you think that when I disagree with you it's because you struck a nerve. I'm confident in my opinions.

 

 

 

Did I strike a nerve?  I'm pretty good with math.

 

This year the Canes are 19th in the league in shots against.

Last year, 26th.

2011/2012, Canes were 30th.

2010/2011, Canes were 30th.

2009/2010, Canes were 22nd.

2008/2009, Canes were 14th and what happened?  Playoffs...ECF.

 

Now I can do math.  I can look up stats.  Since there are only 30 teams in the league, and 2 of the last 3 years the Canes were dead last in shots against a game, exactly what is your point that Cam Ward doesn't see any more rubber than other starters?

 

Superdave drops mike, and exits the stage.

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Do you have any idea how ridiculous you sound when you tell other people to waste time out of their day to do your homework to support your argument?
 

Edited by legend-1

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Do you have any idea how ridiculous you sound when you tell other people to waste time out of their day to do your homework to support your argument?

 

 

Ok , so to satisfy those of you unable to do your own work, the following stats. 

 

Career shots against divided by games played. Regular season only. Average shots per game faced:

 

Anderson: 29.93

 

Luongo: 29.70

 

Price: 29.5

 

Ward: 29.13

 

Hiller: 28.32

 

Lundqvist: 27.87

 

Fleury: 27.86

 

Rinne: 27.85

 

Crawford: 26.04

 

So I guess I was being very generous in allowing a 5 goal differential. Making less and going to the playoffs

 

Never trust anything anybody says unless you know for yourself that it's true.

Edited by winger52

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