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Greg-N-Ral

All inclusive goalie discussion

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Any particular reason for the nine goalies you included? Any idea where the other 21 "number one goalies" would fall?


Since I enjoy doing my own math, how about if we look at shots against, per 60 minutes, 5 on 5, by season?

I will include the goalies facing the most and least shots/60, and any other Hurricane goalies, for reference. (For anyone who wants to see all the goalies, http://www.behindthenet.ca is your friend.)


2013-14 (Excluding Saturday's games):

Goalies playing 5+ games:
01 (37.9) TOR Reimer    
07 (30.9) CAR Ward
16 (28.5) CAR Peters
43 (20.4) MIN Harding

(Khudobin - who hasn't played 5 games: 28.9)


For past seasons, I'll include goalies playing 5+ games (generally "all" goalies that played enough to have a reasonable number to compare) and a smaller group who played 40+ games (20 for last year's shortened season) to get approximately 30 goalies, which will more accurately compare against those considered "#1 goalies".


2012-13

Goalies playing 5+ games:
01 (32.1) OTT Lehner *
05 (30.1) CAR Ellis
17 (28.1) CAR Peters
20 (27.7) CAR Ward
66 (18.8) STL Halak *

Goalies playing 20+ games:
01 (31.0) TOR Reimer *
11 (28.1) CBJ Bobrovsky
12 (27.4) PHX Smith
37 (20.3) NJD Brodeur

(Ward would have been between #11 and #12, if he had played enough games.)


2011-12

Goalies playing 5+ games:
01 (33.1) CGY Irving
02 (32.6) CAR Peters
07 (30.0) CAR Ward
59 (24.9) CAR Boucher
76 (21.1) PIT Thiessen *

Goalies playing 40+ games:
01 (30.1) CBJ Mason
03 (30.0) CAR Ward
32 (23.7) NJD Brodeur *


2010-11

Goalies playing 5+ games:
01 (34.1) NYI Lawson
05 (30.8) CAR Ward
37 (27.2) CAR Peters
70 (23.1) NJD Brodeur

Goalies playing 40+ games:
01 (30.8) CAR Ward
30 (23.1) NJD Brodeur


2009-10

Goalies playing 5+ games:
01 (31.7) EDM Khabibulin
14 (28.7) CAR Ward
28 (27.8) CAR Peters
37 (27.3) CAR Legace
38 (21.0) CHI Huet *

Goalies playing 40+ games:
01 (31.7) ATL Pavelec
09 (28.7) CAR Ward
30 (21.0) CHI Huet *


2008-09

Goalies playing 5+ games:
01 (32.9) FLA Anderson
31 (27.2) CAR Leighton *
42 (26.5) CAR Ward *
75 (22.3) CBJ Norrena *

Goalies playing 40+ games:
01 (32.0) FLA Vokoun
18 (26.5) CAR Ward *
33 (23.8) CHI Huet *


2007-08

Goalies playing 5+ games:
01 (32.5) FLA Anderson
26 (26.8) CAR Grahame
29 (26.4) CAR Ward
68 (16.1) CGY McElhinney *

Goalies playing 40+ games:
01 (31.9) ATL Lehtonen
15 (26.4) CAR Ward
33 (20.0) DET Hasek *


As for how much the difference in shots on goal means to the likelihood of making the play-offs, note the asterisks above. They indicate teams that went to the play-offs. Excluding the shortened season, only one "number one" goalie that had the fewest shots per 60 minutes didn't make the play-offs in five years. And none who faced the most shots per 60 minutes made it.

The spread in shots against/60 between #1 goalies was 6.4 or more each of the five full seasons. In two of the seasons, the spread was over 10.

The spread in shots against/60 between Ward and the goalies with the fewest shots/60 was 6.3 or more in seasons when the Hurricanes were out of the play-offs. The one play-off season, the difference was only 2.7.
 

Perhaps nothing definitive, but an interesting trend.

Edited by InvisibleCane

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I see no need in wasting my time with the math on this issue when I can easily click on the team stats on NHL.com and sort by SA/G. To totally ignore the fact that two of the last 3 years the Canes finished dead takes the wind out of your argument. Currently 9 of the top 10 in this category have over 20 points in the standings. Only 4 of the bottom 10 have 20 pts. There is a direct correlation in success and minimizing the shots on goal. There are going to be outliers, but as a general rule, it's there.

SA/G to me is a great indicator in what defensive support a goalie gets. I still think it's way too simple to just lay this all on the goalie. I don't think there is any question that JR went a bit too far with his contract after winning the Cup.

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I see no need in wasting my time with the math on this issue when I can easily click on the team stats on NHL.com and sort by SA/G. To totally ignore the fact that two of the last 3 years the Canes finished dead takes the wind out of your argument. Currently 9 of the top 10 in this category have over 20 points in the standings. Only 4 of the bottom 10 have 20 pts. There is a direct correlation in success and minimizing the shots on goal. There are going to be outliers, but as a general rule, it's there.

SA/G to me is a great indicator in what defensive support a goalie gets. I still think it's way too simple to just lay this all on the goalie. I don't think there is any question that JR went a bit too far with his contract after winning the Cup.

 

Pretty much this. The more often the puck is thrown at your goaltender, the more often it's going to find the back of the net on the first shot, create a rebound, get deflected, take a bounce, etc. You watch most goals against in the league and the goalie probably really didn't have much of a chance to make the save. Preventing the quality chances, blocking shots and clearing rebounds is way more important than the "skill" of the goaltender. 

 

We can debate Cam's contract all day. In the end, I'm sure JR knows it's too much. It is what it is at this point and the people who want him traded, probably won't get one.

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Any particular reason for the nine goalies you included? Any idea where the other 21 "number one goalies" would fall?

 

 

I used recent playoff goalies except for Ward. he other 21 should not be too far off the numbers above if they have played the majority of their teams games. Not worried about goalies who are less than 40 per season. They are what I would consider backups. 

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The goalies you listed, and their career regular season and playoff save percentage. Ward's regular season numbers are lower in the group but better in the playoffs. No surprise there. Let's compare Ward and Lundqvist since they are the extremes. I'll use last years SA/G and pretend that both goalies played all 82 games. Rangers allowed 28.2 SA/G which would be an 82 game total of 2312 total SOG. Canes allowed 32.2 SA/A which would be 2640. Over the course of a full season, whatever Canes goalie is in net would have seen 328 more shots, or about 10 games extra saves over the Rangers goalie. I have to believe that the extra workload in making the extra saves takes a toll on a goalie and effects their numbers

At Lundqvist save % at .920, on New York's 2312 shot would be 185 goals. Now put Lundqvist behind the Canes SA/G numbers and now he's at 211. Just moving the best goalie you listed behind the Canes defense gave him 26 more goals against in a theoretical 82 game timeframe.

Anderson: .915/.926

Luongo: .919/.916

Price: .916/.915

Ward: .910/.917

Hiller: .917/.935

Lundqvist: .920/.920

Fleury: .910/.903

Rinne: .919/.916

Crawford: .914/.924

See, I can does math good.

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The key words in your post are pretend and theoretical.

And this is different from your posts how?

This is how you analyze statistics, well, not you since these stats don't support your argument. What is theoretical is using a single starting goalie's stats for the full 82 games. What is not theoretical is everything else. You on the other hand just blindly say things like "a couple of more or even 5 shots more a game wouldn't be an issue for an elite goalie" (I'm paraphrasing here). I think my theoretical scenario takes a dump in that idea.

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Does anybody remember the days you would leave the pencil at the office and go to a hockey game. Somewhere in the third period your friend would turn to you and say hey our goalie looks pretty good tonight. You would say he does doesn't he. Then you would enjoy the hockey game and not think of lifting a pencil or doing the math for another 12 hours or so. Call me crazy but I miss those days.

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Does anybody remember the days you would leave the pencil at the office and go to a hockey game. Somewhere in the third period your friend would turn to you and say hey our goalie looks pretty good tonight. You would say he does doesn't he. Then you would enjoy the hockey game and not think of lifting a pencil or doing the math for another 12 hours or so. Call me crazy but I miss those days.

 

Yeah, but he questioned my cyphering abilities.  I'm just about to start teaching ya'll your guzindas.  You know, 2 guzinda 4 twice.

 

Stats are interesting, but you certainly can't look at them in a vacuum and think you are getting the full picture.

Edited by super_dave_1

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I'm waiting for the differential equations.

 

I'm not.  This thread gives me a headache.  Its pretty obvious that no matter how complicated or not the math is, no one is going to convince anyone else to buy into their opinion.  Unless of course the goal is to keep arguing for the sake of arguing.

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I'm not.  This thread gives me a headache.  Its pretty obvious that no matter how complicated or not the math is, no one is going to convince anyone else to buy into their opinion.  Unless of course the goal is to keep arguing for the sake of arguing.

 

I disagree.

 

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I'm not.  This thread gives me a headache.  Its pretty obvious that no matter how complicated or not the math is, no one is going to convince anyone else to buy into their opinion.  Unless of course the goal is to keep arguing for the sake of arguing.

 

I agree wholeheartedly.  If the people that are wrong would just listen to me, we could end this whole thing.

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Let's talk about what really matters. Justin Peters and his .922 sv% (12th in the league). Now are we to believe that this is the result of his individual play, or team defense? Peters has a .965 for the most recent week.

 

Did he somehow become a number 1 NHL goaltender over these last 9 games? Or did the team really start playing great defense? I can't remember seeing that many 2nd opportunities on him or 3rd or 4th chances at all this week. 80% of the time those 2nd chances are easy goals against the Canes. Not this week. 

 

I will give Peters credit, he has really upped his game since coming in. But the team defense has been incredible this past week. I don't care who is in goal if the team defense stays this way. Put Tripp Tracy in goal or even JR with this defense and we can win games.

Edited by Gejustin

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Let's talk about what really matters. Justin Peters and his .922 sv% (12th in the league). Now are we to believe that this is the result of his individual play, or team defense? Peters has a .965 for the most recent week.

 

Did he somehow become a number 1 NHL goaltender over these last 9 games? Or did the team really start playing great defense? I can't remember seeing that many 2nd opportunities on him or 3rd or 4th chances at all this week. 80% of the time those 2nd chances are easy goals against the Canes. Not this week. 

 

I will give Peters credit, he has really upped his game since coming in. But the team defense has been incredible this past week. I don't care who is in goal if the team defense stays this way. Put Tripp Tracy in goal or even JR with this defense and we can win games.

:goodpost:

Edit: I went back and highlighted a sentence in Gejustin's post to make sure people don't overlook it given the other point he brings up.  I wouldn't have flagged the post if it didn't include that sentiment.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Did he somehow become a number 1 NHL goaltender over these last 9 games? Or did the team really start playing great defense?

 

Seeing how he'll see two of the top 4 teams in goals per game on Friday and Saturday, I think we'll know.

 

Really, he is better this time than in the past.  He's spitting out some rebounds which the boys are clearing nicely.  I haven't had as many tourettes attacks during this appearance with the big club.  His play usually triggers that.

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Kudobin is back in pads and on ice per Chip today. Got a feeling that Peter's maybe on the short side now. He has certainly put up a good argument for himself to stick around as of late. You have to love the guy and the heart that he brings, and he has without a doubt stepped it up lately. Glad I am not the Coach that has to make a decision on this situation. Good luck Pete Dawg!!! Hope you stick!

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Congrats are in order to Peters for how he's performed recently.  But to be honest, I don't think there's really going to be too much of a question once Ward & Kudo are healthy.  As a matter of fact, I'll make the bold predictions that:

1) Peters numbers will go up once he's back in Charlotte and no longer playing behind our new found stellar defense.  2) By the end of the season Peters won't be the #1 goalie in Charlotte.  I predict that we'll either trade him or that he'll at best be alternating with Muse.    

Edited by LakeLivin

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Congrats are in order to Peters for how he's performed recently.  But to be honest, I don't think there's really going to be too much of a question once Ward & Kudo are healthy.  As a matter of fact, I'll make the bold prediction that Peters numbers will go up once he's back in Charlotte (and no longer playing behind our new found stellar defense) and that by the end of the season Peters will either be traded or alternating with Muse in Charlotte.    

 

Or maybe he has some new found worth on the current trade market?  His performance has showed he can take it up quite a few notches and there are a few teams looking for replacement goaltending right now.  Not sure what we'd want back but I wouldn't mind stock piling some draft picks.

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Or maybe he has some new found worth on the current trade market?  His performance has showed he can take it up quite a few notches and there are a few teams looking for replacement goaltending right now.  Not sure what we'd want back but I wouldn't mind stock piling some draft picks.

Exactly.

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I think he'll become trade bait as others have suggested. This is the best he's ever looked and likely the pinnacle of what we could get back for him right now. With Muse playing out of his mind and Murphy due back to Charlotte soon that's a log jam.

 

However I believe he's a UFA after this year so if a team needs a really cheap starter to finish the season Peters could appeal to them but just how much will they be willing to give up for a UFA. So even at his pinnacle I think the most we'd get in return is a pick given how these types of deals have gone down in the past.

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Not saying that I disagree with the fact that he could be trade bait. But given the history of our net minders in the last 2 seasons (we don't lose 1, but both) and the fact that they never even let anyone else in the crease other than Peters, even when he couldn't stop a basketball.  That tells me that they don't have much faith in the backups to Peters.  Maybe there is another reason that I am overlooking?  Do you think they would let him ride given Ward's injury prone recent history?  That save % could attract some offers, granted, but I think we might see the day in the near future we would regret it if we pulled the trigger on Pete Dawg right now.

 

I just don't have much faith in Ward remaining in the lineup for a long period of time (due to injury).  I sincerely hope that I am wrong, but nothing points to the opposite at this point.

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Not saying that I disagree with the fact that he could be trade bait. But given the history of our net minders in the last 2 seasons (we don't lose 1, but both) and the fact that they never even let anyone else in the crease other than Peters, even when he couldn't stop a basketball.  That tells me that they don't have much faith in the backups to Peters.  Maybe there is another reason that I am overlooking?  Do you think they would let him ride given Ward's injury prone recent history?  That save % could attract some offers, granted, but I think we might see the day in the near future we would regret it if we pulled the trigger on Pete Dawg right now.

 

I just don't have much faith in Ward remaining in the lineup for a long period of time (due to injury).  I sincerely hope that I am wrong, but nothing points to the opposite at this point.

John Muse, currently on a tryout contract with the Checkers.  1.29 GAA, 0.957 S%, both of which lead the AHL.  Of course he's only played 6 games this year, so it's still early.  I don't anticipate Peters going anywhere immediately. But if both Ward & Kudo get healthy, and Muse continues playing as well as he's started, well . . .

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JR will try to make a trade.  I state this as fact simply because with Peter's current play, somebody would most likely grab him on waivers when Ward and Kudo come back and somebody has to go to Charlotte.  It ain't going to be Ward or Kudo sent to Charlotte.  A team looking for some decent goaltending would probably take a stab at Peters on waivers because it wouldn't cost much.  I don't look for a lot if anything on a trade, but I'm sure JR will try.  A depth pick or somebody else's stalled prospect.

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