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Greg-N-Ral

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Hmmm...

Will Dobby start Friday?

Will he be thrown in cold at home Sat?

My guess is he starts Friday and Cam gets the home crowd game Saturday.

I kinda expected to see him tonight.

I guess if you factor chances of winning in:

1) Cams so far out proven #1 therefore gives us a better chance at 2pts tonight

2) See #1 for Saturday and add home ice advantage.

But this seems like we're just conceding "backup goalie" night as a loss. Cold on the road at Pen's house. Or cold at home with tired skaters. Granted, Pens on the road tired too but still cold since he hasn't played in a while.

If he plays tonight ("winnable") he'd get some game time and maybe confidence for the back to back this weekend for either night.

I dunno, I'm sure it's just me... I just need some quality Dobby time. Been too long and the old habit of riding Cam till he breaks seems to be creeping back.

Sure, ride him while he's high, the more he plays the better he is, and so on but we've seen the same with Khudobin.

I'd like to see them both rolling good but he's just not gettin quality ice time IMO, just getting thrown in on b2b.

Edited by Whattausay

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With the full 3 days off, before playing on  4th night,  tonight, and i agree  Dobby   friday night, and Cammer,  night.

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Evidently it was Billy's corn flakes that Khudobin ruined. Beginning to look like Storm Squad will get more ice time this year. 

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I bring this topic back from the dead just as an example of how long we have been gnashing our teeth over the "Ward is average at best" issue. Our old buddy GNR started this in 2012, but this has gone on much longer than that. Just about every other goalie the Canes has had on the roster has been suggested as a starter over Ward. Leighton, Peters, Ellis, Legacy, Khudobin, or anybody else with a goalie stick has been touted as the next new thing. I think it's like starting quarterbacks. If you have a quarterback controversy, you don't have a starter. If you have a goalie controversy...

Funny reading if you look back.

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Originally posted in a different thread, seems like it really belongs here:

 

Given the talk about goalies I thought I'd take a look at some of the stuff Eric Tulsky has written.  Although Tulsky is surely informing RF, I'd guess that RF is combining Tulsky's analytics stuff with his own thoughts and experience, so who knows what RF is actually going to do.  Here are some excerpts. Note that any text that's in bold italics represents my emphasis, not Tulsky's.

  • Goalies are really variable. You never really know who's going to be good in any given year
  • It's true that goalie performance varies quite a bit from year to year, but that's not something you can avoid. You'll be stuck with that variability no matter which goalie you sign . However, a good goalie's good years will be better and his bad years will be less bad -- that doesn't mean his bad years will be better than someone else's good years, but the average will clearly be better.
  • A save percentage of .920 is a top-ten performance, while .910 would be nothing more than a good backup. But the difference between the two is just one save every 100 shots. That's an awfully narrow margin, and it takes an awfully large sample size to reliably identify differences that small. Much larger than you might expect -- several thousand shots, and even more if you want finer distinctions than top-ten versus good backup.
  • Variability is a reason to be cautious about identifying a goalie as superior. This is where teams can get into trouble: an average goalie can have a good year early in his career as a result of natural variability. The mistake some teams seem to make is in misreading him as a superior goalie on the rise and signing him to a big-money deal, only to find out later that they have overpaid for an average goalie. It is possible that scouts can detect star goalies earlier and more reliably than stats can, but several recent goalie contracts suggest that their projections are prone to significant error as well. The truth appears to be that if just a few tenths of a percent separate decent from great, we need we need to see multiple years to get that refined an understanding of a goaltender's skill.
  • Because top players seem to be able to command long-term deals these days, this may be a risk that teams have to accept if they want to land a top goalie, but it should be a risk they take knowingly. In essence, this argument means that teams that are building should focus on goalies on short-term contracts and hope to develop a goalie from within, that they should spend big money for an upper-tier goalie only if their prospects don't pan out and they find themselves with a team that is capable of competing for a championship in the near term.
  • Teams should be extremely cautious about signing a goalie who does not have a track record of several years at the desired performance level
  • Teams should also understand that long-term deals carry a unique risk of the goalie being rendered obsolete by new and improved goalies hitting the market in the coming years.
  • It's easy to see how a goalie's AHL performance would make you quite sure that he's not going to make it in the NHL, but it's harder for his AHL performance to make you sure that he will.

I also seem to recall reading where Tulsky highlighted a "lottery" type approach to acquiring goalies if you couldn't get one with a well established NHL record but I can't find that article to confirm.  i.e., sign goalies that show preliminary promise at reasonable short term deals and hope that one of them hits.  If true, that would seem to cover the Lack signing imo.

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Believe me i'm not reading 96 pages of posts, but looking at the first page, are there still people here who wouldn't trade CWard straight up for Ovenchicken?  Egads!

 

The Hurricanes do not have a dependable 1G.  They have 2 2G's, one of whom is under contract and the other of whom is probably the better choice for keeping.  I have no answers as to who should be the 1G next season, but if we go into next season with the two of them, i sincerely hope one or the other of them picks up the damned torch in a way no Hurricane netminder has in years.  Nor am i holding my breath.

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I'd trade Ward for a puppy. I think 99.99% of all neutral observers would trade Wardo for a puppy, they are cute and fuzzy. They do pee on the floor sometimes though. While Ward has had some messes on the ice, I don't think he has wet himself. You also don't have to get up at night to let him out. Puppies are cute though. They are so fuzzy and lick me on the nose. Ward has never licked me on the nose. This is a toughy, but I'd choose the puppy.

Just reading through some of this, and found this gem that I once posted.

Some fun stuff about the CWZAS ( Cam Ward Zombie Attack Squad) too. Funny thing is that the CWZAS was right all along.

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Tulsky pointed out how variable all goalies are in their year to year performance and the dangers of basing decisions on a short recent time frame.  Here's an interesting look at four goalies over the past 3 years:

 

goalie   games      save%   GAA (listed separately since you can't calculate combined from basic stats) 

 

  A:         111         .913         2.31,  3.16,  3.29

  B:           99         .915         2.35,  2.28,  2,46 

  C:         116         .912         2.81,  2.45,  2.41

  D:         133         .907         2.41,  2.40,  3.06    

 

If you had to pick from the four based on just these basic stats, who do you go with?  How much confidence do you have in him going forward?  And what would you be willing to pay the guy?

 

I'll save some of you some typing: obviously no one would make a decision based on just these stats, so you don't need to point that out. :P

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Some fun stuff about the CWZAS ( Cam Ward Zombie Attack Squad) too. Funny thing is that the CWZAS was right all along.

 

:blush: (it was funny though)

 

We did learn an interesting factoid - zombies can walk under the water, but their real slow, but flail around when swimming.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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The main thing I get out of reading my old posts is that I don't remember writing 95% of them.

 

This, from an early post though got me thinking: The playoffs and the next 4 seasons, Cam really was growing into a pretty good looking goalie, allowing a poor first regular season year.

 

2007: .904 #34 of goalies w/ 25 starts: #52 of all goalies.
2008: .916 #11 of goalies w/25 starts. Top of middle section. Better than average, but not elite.
2009: .916 #13 of goalies w/25 starts. See 2008.
2010: .923 #5 of goalies w/30 starts ELITE: Earned All Star Appearance.

 

Cam had that magical playoff run. In part because teams did not know how to solve him, and in part due to his talent.

 

But then he got back to reality in 2007 regular season, and was in very good back up range. But he was really a rookie.

 

The thing is that the next two years he was in or near the top 1/3 line of #1 goalies. He really was pretty good and on the rise, and facing a lot of rubber.

 

And he kept improving until 2010 when he put up that really great year, where based on Save % he was the #5 goalie in the NHL.

 

So really, it was all pretty good up to then. Back when this thread was started Cam had just begun to tail off.

 

Unfortunately it has been all down hill since 2010.

 

2011 he dropped to #22 best save percentage at .915, and suddenly the 2010 year looked like the outlier.

 

Since then;

 

.908, .898, .910, .909.

 

9 years, ONE year of greatness, and none in the last 5 years.

 

 

He could have a resurgence, and he has had great stretches, but to bet on it, no. He needs to be paid like a top backup, and then either he or Eddie has to go because we need one backup.

Edited by remkin

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:blush: (it was funny though)

 

We did learn an interesting factoid - zombies can walk under the water, but their real slow, but flail around when swimming.

Ever see World War Z? Those zombies were fast.

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Not swimming though.  We were worried about the island security.  We agreed then we could monitor for slow underwater walking zombies.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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He could have a resurgence, and he has had great stretches, but to bet on it, no. He needs to be paid like a top backup, and then either he or Eddie has to go because we need one backup.

 

That's pretty much nails my take as well Rem.

 

Unlike what got the great goalie debate going, Cam is no longer under contract and the side boards and situation are much different. 

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Yup, if I'm betting between Cam and Eddie for "backup with the best odds of returning to form," I'm going with Cam. It would suck to lose Eddie's verve and you have to hope moving him doesn't hurt our other Swedes much. But let's say we get Reimer or Andersen. Cam or Lack backing him up? For me, it's not even close.

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I do wonder how it would be for a new starting goalie to come into the room with Wards pads hanging in the next locker.  How would it be for Ward in the same room with shiny new toy?  The first time the FNG throws up a stinker, is there going to be a giant outburst of "Ward should be the guy"?  That situation seems a bit uncomfortable any way you look at it.

 

Unless GMRF can find a taker for Lack, he is on the hook for 2 years.  Signing Ward as a backup really can't happen unless Lack can be moved.   I really feel that Lack was brought in with the expectation that he'd take the pipes away from Ward and Ronnie would have his bridge goalie.  I'm with the "signing Ward only gives us 2 backup goalies" crowd.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Why can't we just get someone to teach Lack to catch/freeze the puck?

 

If he fixed that one issue, he's a fine #2.  

 

Found this old post from a Canuck fan.  Not once do they mention rebound control/catching as an issue.  I'm not so sure that it wasn't something strange that cropped up this season and became a mental issue.  

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/canes/comments/3bb7ka/a_caniacs_guide_to_eddie_lack/

 

I am just throwing out there I am not so sure that we saw an accurate picture of Lack yet.  His upside is better than what we saw I think.

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No one willing to stick a neck out and pick one based on a couple of blinded statistics? Not even curious? I'll add a 5th goalie to the mix:

 

                 Past 3 Seasons Combined     

goalie   games      save%   GAA (listed separately since you can't calculate combined from basic stats) 

 

  A:         111         .913         2.31,  3.16,  3.29

  B:           99         .915         2.35,  2.28,  2,46 

  C:         116         .912         2.81,  2.45,  2.41

  D:         133         .907         2.41,  2.40,  3.06  

  E:         125         .918         2.30,  2.38,  2.29

 

If nothing else, this seems to highlight what Tulsky was talking about with regard to goalies being highly variable. Also, to me at least, it helps illustrate the potential differences between perceptions about certain goalies and their actual performances.  Which highlights (again, to me) the challenge GMRF faces in filling our net.

Edited by LakeLivin

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I do wonder how it would be for a new starting goalie to come into the room with Wards pads hanging in the next locker.  How would it be for Ward in the same room with shiny new toy?  The first time the FNG throws up a stinker, is there going to be a giant outburst of "Ward should be the guy"?  That situation seems a bit uncomfortable any way you look at it.

 

Unless GMRF can find a taker for Lack, he is on the hook for 2 years.  Signing Ward as a backup really can't happen unless Lack can be moved.   I really feel that Lack was brought in with the expectation that he'd take the pipes away from Ward and Ronnie would have his bridge goalie.  I'm with the "signing Ward only gives us 2 backup goalies" crowd.

 

It's certainly going to be a tough road for GMRF to pull off something to get better in net, but I still don't see Ward as a #1, not even close.

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JR would trade Lack and a 2nd rounder for somebody else's broken toy, resign Ward, and dumpster dive for another goalie (this is not intended to be a joke).  It's going to be interesting to see how GMRF plays this.

Edited by super_dave_1

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