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Greg-N-Ral

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Cam is the constant?

2007-08 John Grahame Decent back up, good pick up at the time we brought him in the fold.

.875 SV% over 17 games.

Leighton got in the fold, he was working the AHL over pretty good so we gave him a look.

3 GP .897 SV%

2008-09 Decided Leighton was better then Grahame and his AHL dominance must = NHL success. 19 games later .901 SV% and almost a 3 GAA.

2009-10 Peters, Leighton, Legace and anyone else who wanted a shot at being our goalie got the shot. None of them posted better GAA's or SV%'s then Cam but to recap

Cam 2.69 GAA, .916 SV% 47 GP (reference)

Legace 2.89, .904 SV%

Peters 2.83 .905 SV%

Leighton 4.28 GAA .848 SV%

2010-11 Because Peters was cheaper and showed some promise we decided to let Legace go.

3.98 GAA .875 SV%

2011-12 Because Peters sucked, we went to the FA market to bring in a new vet and what most would have considered the best available back up on the market.

Boucher .880 SV% and 3.40 GAA

Peters again shows promise to make a come back with a .931 SV%

Murphy shows a decent amount of promise but decides to goto Russia and destroy his NHL career.

And here we are today.

The constant is Cam? Really? We've been through a goalie carousel with several prospects and the only goalie in 6 years whose come close to offering stability was Legace.

The best back up goalie on the market couldn't even make it work here.

Edited by legend-1

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Okay time to put the BS to rest. While watching today's Det/LA game Howard has faced 38 shots through the end of the second period and is winning 2 to 1. So I decided to investigate the myth of Cam facing the most shots on goal. Using GP[games played) and SA (shots against) let's see where Cam is in this season.

Top 7

Miller 10/330. 33.0 shots per game

Dubnyk 10/323 . 32.3

Bryzgalov 11/317 . 28.8

Anderson 10/300 . 30.0

Nabakov 10/292. 29.2

Lehtonen 10/291 . 29.1

Howard 10/273 . 27.3 * these numbers will change as it's the start of the 3rd.

Down to 14

Cam 8/241 . 30.125

So can we please stop with the "Cam faces more shots" arguement.

Going by games played is skewed. The information above does not account for the partial games. Cam has been in goal for 421 minutes - roughly 7 games. 241/7 is 34 and some change. Compare it to shots per minute played then you would probably have a more reasonable comparison but still does not account for shot quality.

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Cam is the constant?

2007-08 John Grahame Decent back up, good pick up at the time we brought him in the fold.

.875 SV% over 17 games.

Leighton got in the fold, he was working the AHL over pretty good so we gave him a look.

3 GP .897 SV%

2008-09 Decided Leighton was better then Grahame and his AHL dominance must = NHL success. 19 games later .901 SV% and almost a 3 GAA.

2009-10 Peters, Leighton, Legace and anyone else who wanted a shot at being our goalie got the shot. None of them posted better GAA's or SV%'s then Cam but to recap

Cam 2.69 GAA, .916 SV% 47 GP (reference)

Legace 2.89, .904 SV%

Peters 2.83 .905 SV%

Leighton 4.28 GAA .848 SV%

2010-11 Because Peters was cheaper and showed some promise we decided to let Legace go.

3.98 GAA .875 SV%

2011-12 Because Peters sucked, we went to the FA market to bring in a new vet and what most would have considered the best available back up on the market.

Boucher .880 SV% and 3.40 GAA

Peters again shows promise to make a come back with a .931 SV%

Murphy shows a decent amount of promise but decides to goto Russia and destroy his NHL career.

And here we are today.

The constant is Cam? Really? We've been through a goalie carousel with several prospects and the only goalie in 6 years whose come close to offering stability was Legace.

The best back up goalie on the market couldn't even make it work here.

You are talking about backups who got rare starts except for Legace. I remember him getting better the more he played and the team was starting play better also. If you get to play 1 or 2 games a month it's hard to get a rhythm going.

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Your job as a backup is to come in once in a while and play like a starter. It's your job, it's also why usually only veteran goalies can do it. Boucher comes in as the best in the business and couldn't handle the defensive breakdowns we still see now.

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I like to trot out stats as much as anyone, but the really key stats are very hard to find as we've discussed.

How many games have we outshot the opponent but the true chances were the other way?

The problem is that all shots are not created equal.

I think everyone on here could stop a clear in shot from center ice. But what about the third shot in a succession, where the goalie is hung out to dry on all three shots, and finally gives up the last one?

Of course what makes this so ripe for discussion is that in the end, unless someone can find some kind of stats that factor in number of odd man rushes, tick tack toe plays, point blank shots, deflections, etc. This will always end up being subjective in the end.

What do you see when you watch this team play?

What I have seen for most of the post cup years is a team that varies from soft to very soft on defense, that does not just give up harmless shots from way out, but very juicy shots far more than the average team. I have seen Cam improve every year until the year before last until he could regularly make up for our soft defense.

Cam being the only constant really doesn't matter unless you can show that one of those collections of dmen was actually good. They were not. Part of the reason we keep changing dmen out was that we couldn't get it right. We've developed precious few dmen, and have patched together the defense w/ guys other teams let go for the most part *cough* Kaberle * cough.

Boston, over the last several years, has always been right near the top of the board on team defense. (Having Chara doesn't hurt). Sure Tim Thomas is a heck of a goalie, but over the years all of their back ups have had great goals against averages also.

When we play strong defensive teams, you can see how they disrupt plays, seem to have 4 guys back clogging things up, knock us off the puck and go the other way a lot more than lesser defenses, where as many teams seem to swarm in on our d and find an open guy w/ a good shot.

All of this is a mix of objective and subjective. So I guess the debate will rage on.

But I have seen what Legend also did at least the last 2 games. We are giving up way too many juicy shots, and Cam has been elite in finding points for us in those games. Power play goals have helped too, but over a season, even a short one, being the softest team in the league will not end well.

We are not constructed as a bruising team, so we've got to tighten up to be at least just below average.

Anyway, it is great to be able to have the debate because both goalies are playing well. Despite all of it, Ellis should get a start either tonight or in NJ.

I might play Cam tonight. Rested vs. a team we can beat, try to get that W. Jersey will be a very very tough one on the back to back. Maybe putting our back up in will cause them to take us lightly.

Edited by remkin

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Looks like our best goalie bounce back to form last night. When will he get a 5 or 6 game stretch?

When he gets signed as a number 1 on another team next year?

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Looks like our best goalie bounce back to form last night. When will he get a 5 or 6 game stretch?

I don't know about a long stretch vs select games but it has to be great for the team to have two goalies they have complete confidence in this year.

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With Ellis playing as good as he is will do nothing but help the Canes. If Cam is having a bad game, you can throw Ellis in and hope he can bail out the rest of the team and if Ellis is having a bad game you can do the same with Cam! You never know what kind of fire this may light under the rest of the team. Its starting to look like this is getting to be a normal situation across the NHL now. Everygame is very important with this shortened season and it also seems like its getting that way in regular seasons as well.

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With Ellis playing as good as he is will do nothing but help the Canes. If Cam is having a bad game, you can throw Ellis in and hope he can bail out the rest of the team and if Ellis is having a bad game you can do the same with Cam! You never know what kind of fire this may light under the rest of the team. Its starting to look like this is getting to be a normal situation across the NHL now. Everygame is very important with this shortened season and it also seems like its getting that way in regular seasons as well.

Absolutely. Ellis is like sweet icing on the cake. This team made two hugely massive offseason moves, but fairly quietly signed Ellis to a short term tryout in the minors. As we finally have the first line winger, we also finally have the stud back up goalie. It is also so key that Muller put him in after Cam finished a run of games w/ both ends of the back to back. Had to get him some ice to shake off that last performance and get some confidence. Now both goalies are confident and with good reason.

The term "firing on all cylinders" comes to mind. If we could kill penalties there'd be just about nothing to critique.

Edited by remkin

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Guys,

Here are the latest stats for Dan Ellis with Cam included as a point of reference.

I find it interesting to see how Ellis is doing relative to Ward with the same team in front of them!

SALARY

Ellis - $650,000

Ward - $6,400,000 (one of the highest paid goalie salaries in the entire NHL) unsure.gif

W-L WINNING PERCENTAGE

Ellis 3-1 75% wins

Ward 5-3-1 56% wins

GOALS AGAINST AVERAGE

Ellis 1.74 (#6 in the NHL)

Ward 3.22 (#39 in the NHL)

SAVE PERCENTAGE (great metric of goalie performance, esp after 100's of SA)

Ellis 94.3% (#3 in the NHL)

Ward 90.2% (#28 in the NHL)

WOW - 4for4 - salary (by far), W-L, GAA and S%!!!

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Guys,

Here are the latest stats for Dan Ellis with Cam included as a point of reference.

I find it interesting to see how Ellis is doing relative to Ward with the same team in front of them!

SALARY

Ellis - $650,000

Ward - $6,400,000 (one of the highest paid goalie salaries in the entire NHL) unsure.gif

W-L WINNING PERCENTAGE

Ellis 3-1 75% wins

Ward 5-3-1 56% wins

GOALS AGAINST AVERAGE

Ellis 1.74 (#6 in the NHL)

Ward 3.22 (#39 in the NHL)

SAVE PERCENTAGE (great metric of goalie performance, esp after 100's of SA)

Ellis 94.3% (#3 in the NHL)

Ward 90.2% (#28 in the NHL)

WOW - 4for4 - salary (by far), W-L, GAA and S%!!!

"with the same team in front of them!"

It's safe to assume that you haven't actually watched the games if this is what you think lol.

Edited by Gejustin

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It's safe to assume that you haven't actually watched the games if this is what you think lol.

Reaching!! Now I guess you could reach and dream up excuses (er, reasons), but same players in front of them is correct.

The data does not lie!!

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I think most of us have moved past making this an Ellis vs. Ward debate. Thanks for posting the stats, it's great to have 2 goalies that can win a game when called upon.

YANOOMIL.

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I was glad Muller put Ellis in after the road trip to keep him fresh----because

we have another b/b next weekend. (TB Sat--NYI Sunday)

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Take out the first two games of the season, since everyone on the team was playing terrible, THEN redo the stats. That would be a more realistic measuring stick.

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Take out the first two games of the season, since everyone on the team was playing terrible, THEN redo the stats. That would be a more realistic measuring stick.

He can't do that because it won't give him the results that he wants to see.

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So he should use only the stats that you want to see. Sometimes stats slap down your perceptions.

Sounds good to me. A dozen or so games worth of stats should define a career.

Edited by super_dave_1

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So he should use only the stats that you want to see. Sometimes stats slap down your perceptions.

Sometimes. And sometimes you have to apply common sense to stats.

If the first two games were not true and actual exceptions both for Cam and the team. We would not have gone 8-2-1 since then against some of the best teams in the conference and mostly on the road.

Sometimes common sense has to prevail. Goalies had not seen game speed after a lay off of the better part of a year (Oh, except those playing in the AHL, hmmm). no preseason games. One week of practice. The team played w/ the defensive cohesion of a mighty mites team those first two games. And...well read my last post.

And who played during that record road trip, including both ends of that back to back?

I think Muller made it pretty clear what the most qualified opinions think of this debate.

I will say this, though, salary is dependent on timing, and time both past and future (what is the player's likely value moving forward). Ellis was on a minor league tryout, that should tell you about the past part, as to the future, if he can keep playing this well he will see a very nice pay bump.

As Coastal said, at this point we should rejoice that we have a very strong 1-2 tandem. That is something we've lacked for quite a while. Try though you might, there is no goalie controversy, which is something that Muller wisely spared us of.

Edited by remkin

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Nobody was saying that 12 games defined a career. Other goalies who had not seem AHL action have had better starts. But by looking at stats you could make a strong case for Ellis getting more starts. Since some want to disregard the first two games, you really should find out how far out of the average are those two losses. I can't remember the last time this team went on a winning streak ( more that 3 or 4 games )? I do remember some strong losing streaks though while our goalie tried to ________ ( find his game, get his head straight, work through timing problems, or any other excuse you can come up with ) your choice to fill in the blank. But if fans still want to ignore the first two games I have a solution. Let's ignore 5 out of the last 6 seasons and say Cam is a playoff goalie. Maybe if enough fans insist he's a playoff goalie it will become true. If Cam starts tonight we will have to score at least 4 goals to have a chance. That's a big stat the team faces!

Edited by winger52

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