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Greg-N-Ral

Probability Canes make the playoffs (2012-2013 season)

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Each year at this time I find myself wondering what are the objective odds of the Canes making the playoffs. This year is no exception.

Four years ago I built a Monte Carlo random-number statistical simulation model.  The simulator has proven to be fairly accurate over the years.

I find it fun to look at the data and also manage my own expectations of the team. Anyways, I wanted to share it with you guys.
 

 

Here's the current run as of 3-22-2013.


The analysis shows the Canes have a 62.3% chance of making the playoffs.


Here is how it looks in the Eastern Conference after simulating 50,000 seasons given current conditions.



 
TEAM           AVG RANK*   AVG PTS    %MAKE PO
pit                  1.64      67.36    0.99998
mon                  2.03      65.78    0.99990
bos                  2.73      63.16    0.99890
ott                  4.99      56.97    0.93666
tor                  6.61      53.96    0.78236
nj                   7.50      52.58    0.66378
car                  8.08      51.70    0.62320
win                  8.16      51.56    0.60174
nyr                  8.17      51.58    0.55942
nyi                 10.24      48.57    0.25882
was                 10.85      47.65    0.20948
buf                 11.47      46.72    0.12764
phi                 11.65      46.40    0.11842
tb                  11.71      46.30    0.11232
fl                  14.18      41.11    0.00738

AVG RANK* is based on total points (not playoff seed due to Div)


Naturally, a lot can and will change!!   So, I always look at these runs more as a snapshot, right at this point in time.

 
Some the variables that go into the playoff simulator are:
1) current record
2) remaining home and away games
3) winning Division ensures making playoffs (regardless if top-8 in overall points or not)
4) hot/cold current play over last 10 games

I'll explain more of what goes into the simulator down the line.
 
Doing "What-If" runs also is interesting and the simulator makes it easy.  

Ex: What are the odds the Canes make the playoffs,if they win the next two games? win four of the next five? etc.

I'll update the report from time-to-time, but for right now the stats simulation model is showing us at 62.3% 


 

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Yes, it shows Caps have a 21% chance right now. And, why not?

They're in 10th place overall, 3rd in the SE div and they're 5-5 over their last 10. 
On top of that, the Canes have a game in hand


Anyways, if you think their odds should be higher, that's cool, but then who's odds are you lowering?

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I hate stats. They never account for the intagibles in sports. Having said that if someone asked me our chances off the top of my head I would have guessed 60-40. Knowing these stats change after every game it looks to me like they reasonable odds

 

But I don't want to overthink this. Win and your in.

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Those numbers can definitely change very quickly plus in so many of the remaining games, teams are playing directly against a team they're fighting for a spot with.

 

Whoever updates this site is keeping things interesting:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Carolina.html

 

If I'm reading it right the Canes need to go 10-5-3 to get to 55 points which should get them in. That's basically 10-8 which sound very do-able, even with our current struggles.

 

How many points are you thinking it will take to get that 3rd seed or even the eighth Greg?

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Those numbers can definitely change very quickly plus in so many of the remaining games, teams are playing directly against a team they're fighting for a spot with.

 

Whoever updates this site is keeping things interesting:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Carolina.html

 

If I'm reading it right the Canes need to go 10-5-3 to get to 55 points which should get them in. That's basically 10-8 which sound very do-able, even with our current struggles.

 

How many points are you thinking it will take to get that 3rd seed or even the eighth Greg?

 

 

TSA,

Based on the 50,000 simulated seasons, the average 8th place team earned 51.8 points, so lets call that 52 points.

In short, with an average run of luck otherwise, 52 points will get you in this year.

Now, using the "What-If" capability of the Monte Carlo simulator, we can certainly have some fun. 

IF the Canes go 10-8 in their remaining 18 games, they have a 79.8% chance of making the playoffs.

 

IF the Canes can go 11-7 (perhaps optimistic), that's going to be great, as they'll have a 97% chance of making the playoffs.

Another take here as you can see from the odds, each W really is huge from this point out!

 

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Gren-N-Ral: I think your simulation matches sportsclubstats pretty well.

 

Someone said what about Washington?  Well, if the Canes lose next game and Wash wins, they'll  both be 50-50.  20% or 80% doesn't mean a whole lot this year in the shortened season.  Each game carries too much weight.

 

Anyway, enjoy your simulation and keep us posted.

Edited by wxray1

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If the Canes get back to their A game, 11-7 will be a Cake Walk, and they have a 100% chance of playoffs.

 

If the Canes continue the game they've been playing 5-13 would look good, and they have a 0% chance of playoffs.

 

None of it depends on sportstats. All of it depends on which Canes finish out the year. 

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If the Canes get back to their A game, 11-7 will be a Cake Walk, and they have a 100% chance of playoffs.

 

If the Canes continue the game they've been playing 5-13 would look good, and they have a 0% chance of playoffs.

 

None of it depends on sportstats. All of it depends on which Canes finish out the year. 

Exactly !

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OBX, translating to stat geek,   "Go 11-7 and 97% chance your in."

 

Thats what I was trying to say

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Anyway, enjoy your simulation and keep us posted.

 

 

Thanks Ray, will do.

If you have any scenarios you'd like to see let me know.

EX:

i) Caps win 5 in a row -- how does that impact Canes odds? Caps odds?

ii) Canes win Tuesday against Wpeg? (I'll do that one soon) So how "BIG" is this game when you get right down to the math?

iii) Canes go 500 in next 10 games, how much would that hurt Canes odds?

iv) NYR get hot and finish 13-5, while Canes go 9-7, etc... exactly what's that do for our chances?

v) What if TOR tanks -- how much would that help our odds of making it?

vi) What if WPEG gets RED HOT and goes 14-2 --- does that really kill our chances? What would our odds be then?

etc.

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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Naturally we'll hear it over and over....  "Tonight is  a big game for the Hurricanes."

But what exactly does that mean, in terms of probability of making the playoffs?

We'll here's how the math breaks out for tonights "big game" against the Jets...

Heading into tonight (3/26)...
Canes have a 58% chance of making the playoffs
Jets have a 69% chance of making the playoffs


If the Canes Win (in regulation) tonight against the Jets...
Canes have a 68% chance of making the playoffs
Jets have a 58% chance of making the playoffs

If the Canes Lose (in regulation) tonight against the Jets...
Canes have a 46% chance of making the playoffs
Jets have a 79% chance of making the playoffs

So, the marginal difference between wining and losing for the Canes is an amazing 22% (68-46).

Bottom line? 
22% really is a Big Difference!!  

  

 

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huge, huge , huge game!  No excuses!   A rested, hopefully snarly team, and at home... lets get it done!

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Given 4 days off, facing the team you're chasing, at home, in what amounted to the first playoff game of the year, we drop this church fart. Playoff chances rapidly approaching zero.

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If the Jets win on Saturday they have the inside track to take the SE title.  No other team from that division will make the playoffs  The Canes need to beat them the one remaining time they play and then hope they lose  their remaining three games in hand

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If the Jets win on Saturday they have the inside track to take the SE title.  No other team from that division will make the playoffs  The Canes need to beat them the one remaining time they play and then hope they lose  their remaining three games in hand

Um we're the ones with games in hand. That means we need to win those (not Jets losing them). But you're right. We need to beat the Jets. If they stumble down the stretch, that would help too.

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I feel 100% confident that finishing 3rd in the East won't happen. I think even though they are bad, and not winning, Winnipeg is far enough ahead to stay there. And I have my doubts that the Canes finish higher than 9th overall. 

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The Simulator was updated with the latest data today and after playing out 50,000 different seasons, here's how the Eastern Conference worked out....

 

as of 3-28-2013
 
TEAM           AVG RANK   AVG PTS    %MAKE PO
pit                  1.28      70.02    1.00000
mon                  2.59      64.66    0.99988
bos                  2.72      64.23    0.99958
ott                  4.05      60.11    0.99342
tor                  5.52      56.46    0.94342
nj                   7.13      53.38    0.74384
win                  7.71      52.33    0.73242
nyr                  8.35      51.32    0.52876
nyi                  9.07      50.18    0.38504
CAR                  9.89      48.89    0.32794
was                 10.79      47.44    0.18782
buf                 11.34      46.56    0.09042
phi                 12.42      44.56    0.03502
tb                  12.46      44.48    0.03214
fl                  14.66      38.39    0.00030



As of right now, the Canes have a 32.7% chance of making the playoffs (either by winning the SE Division or being in the top-8 otherwise).

Clearly, the last week was not kind to the Canes. The fact the NYI have won 3 in a row including two on the road hasn't helped either.


Variables that go into the Simulator are:
1) current record
2) remaining home and away games
3) winning Division ensures making playoffs (regardless if top-8 in overall points or not)
4) hot/cold current play over last 10 games



 

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....

Variables that go into the Simulator are:

1) current record

2) remaining home and away games

3) winning Division ensures making playoffs (regardless if top-8 in overall points or not)

4) hot/cold current play over last 10 games

So nothing  couple of wins won't fix, but you gotta win 'em.

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....

Variables that go into the Simulator are:

1) current record

2) remaining home and away games

3) winning Division ensures making playoffs (regardless if top-8 in overall points or not)

4) hot/cold current play over last 10 games

So nothing  couple of wins won't fix, but you gotta win 'em.

 

That about sums it up!!   :thumbsup:

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