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Greg-N-Ral

Probability Canes make the playoffs (2012-2013 season)

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"So nothing  couple of wins won't fix, but you gotta win 'em."

ManWolf, thanks for the 
inspiration

I just had the Simulator play out 50,000 more seasons, but this time ASSUMING the Canes win the next two
(on road vs Wpeg and Mon).

If they can win the next two, the Canes odds go up to 54% chance of making the playoffs.  (not bad)



 

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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If they can win the next two, the Canes odds go up to 54% chance of making the playoffs.  (not bad)

I think for the moment I'll hold on to this

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I think for the moment I'll hold on to this

:rockon:   Right with you OBX.  

We're basically doing the "one game at a time" thing, only doing it one better!

Lets go Canes -- two wins baby!! two wins!!

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This might give us something else to hold on to....


IF the Canes win today up in Winnipeg and finish the season 10-6
THEN they'll have a 77% chance of making the playoffs.


Again, this result was based on Monte Carlo simulation playing out 50,000 different scenario seasons.

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The Rags Devils, and the Isle are leaving the 7-8 positions wide open with their failure to solidify their playoff chances.   And the Crapitals are just one point  behind the Canes.   The motto for the remainder of the season is "just win baby"

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The Rags Devils, and the Isle are leaving the 7-8 positions wide open with their failure to solidify their playoff chances.   And the Crapitals are just one point  behind the Canes.   The motto for the remainder of the season is "just win baby"

 

 

Oh man, right with you Collie... all but the Caps win, it was great watching the Rangers, Islanders and NJ all fail to get a W yesterday.

I'll try and update the Simulator today and see exactly how all the playoff-probabilities look considering all of Saturday's Eastern Conference action.

 

Greg is famous, he gave Maniscalco a math lesson during the Aftermath today.

Yea, I felt compelled to share with Mike our OBXer/ManWolf inspired "just win two" probabilities.

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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The Rags Devils, and the Isle are leaving the 7-8 positions wide open with their failure to solidify their playoff chances.   And the Crapitals are just one point  behind the Canes.   The motto for the remainder of the season is "just win baby"

 

The nice thing is that we currently hold a 3 game edge in ROW over each them if it comes down to a tie breaker.

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Yea, I felt compelled to share with Mike our OBXer/ManWolf inspired "just win two" probabilities.

 

Until now I have only been called hardheaded. I can't wait to tell everyone I have actually been called inspirational. :patself:

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....Yea, I felt compelled to share with Mike our OBXer/ManWolf inspired "just win two" probabilities.

I'm going to ride this one game hot streak to Montreal.  I'll be at Monday's game, if no travel issues, to take on greater odds with the Bell Centre crowd.  I'm now calling it my April "and one" trip, since the calendar turns from March Madness.

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I'm going to ride this one game hot streak to Montreal.  I'll be at Monday's game, if no travel issues, to take on greater odds with the Bell Centre crowd.  I'm now calling it my April "and one" trip, since the calendar turns from March Madness.

 

Wow!  Going behind enemy lines.  Here's to good travel and hopes to not hear any Ole!

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at least the Canes still carry their playoff chances in their own hands and not depending on any team to open the door for them

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The Caps have finally caught the Canes. Both teams trail WPG by 4 points ... Dog fight time for Canes!!!!

 

But we still have 3 games in hand on the Jets and 2 games in hand on the Caps. Tonight is big but tomorrow night is HUGE! Can't give away points to divisional rivals.

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But we still have 3 games in hand on the Jets and 2 games in hand on the Caps. Tonight is big but tomorrow night is HUGE! Can't give away points to divisional rivals.

 

Just recall that the Canes will eventually scrub off those games in hand -- by playing 6 games in 9 days.  This starts tonight.  Considering there have been complaints about being out of gas, I wouldn't count those games in hand as wins just yet.

 

We'll see how they deal with this incredible grind coming up.

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I'm much less concerned about the Jets as I am with the Caps.  The Jets have as many issues as the Canes do but the Caps have slowly been putting it together and have the talent to make a run.  Whether they have the mental toughness and leadership is another question.

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I'm much less concerned about the Jets as I am with the Caps.  The Jets have as many issues as the Canes do but the Caps have slowly been putting it together and have the talent to make a run.  Whether they have the mental toughness and leadership is another question.

I totally agree. There are starting to play alot better. Mental toughness might be an issue with them as they had a 4-2 lead against the Flyers yesterday with 7 mins to play, and lost that game in OT. I think the Canes, Jets and Caps all have mental toughness issues, so I guess it will come down to the team that wants it the most and does not "collapse" in games under pressure. As to what team that will be is anyones guess right now.

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I totally agree. There are starting to play alot better. Mental toughness might be an issue with them as they had a 4-2 lead against the Flyers yesterday with 7 mins to play, and lost that game in OT. I think the Canes, Jets and Caps all have mental toughness issues, so I guess it will come down to the team that wants it the most and does not "collapse" in games under pressure. As to what team that will be is anyones guess right now.

IMO the Canes are the most fragile of the three.

Still believe when the Caps came back from that 2-0 deficit to the Canes at the PNC, it completely demoralized the Canes. Then with all the injuries, they have not been able to come out of the psychological funk!!

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And let's face this cold hard fact.  The Caps have had a recent history of late season runs to snatch a playoff spot.  The Canes have had a history of "missed it by just this much."

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Too true!....time to change that little stat then!.... The Caps have a history of sneaking into the playoffs and failing in the 1st/2nd round. When the Canes get in, at least they make a deep run.

Edited by hockeybaby

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Well, here's how it looks after playing the season out 50,000 different times, via Monte Carlo simulation...

 

 
below as of 4-01-2013
 
TEAM           AVG RANK   AVG PTS    %MAKE PO
pit                  1.20      70.73    1.00000
mon                  2.48      65.11    0.99998
bos                  2.70      64.33    0.99990
ott                  4.39      58.90    0.99010
tor                  4.86      57.62    0.98014
nj                   7.62      52.15    0.66780
nyr                  8.29      51.15    0.54104
win                  8.97      50.14    0.51608
nyi                  9.03      50.06    0.39990
car                  9.92      48.82    0.37426
was                 10.08      48.61    0.32904
phi                 11.39      46.68    0.10174
tb                  12.14      45.44    0.05814
buf                 12.27      45.31    0.04096
fl                  14.65      39.38    0.00092


The Canes are now down to a 37.4% chance of making the playoffs.

The Caps are certainly moving up, as they now have a 32.9% chance, up from 20% about ~10 days ago.




 

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Canes playoff chances are equal to their PP success .... right now about 12 %.

First southeast team to go on a 6 game win streak will take the division and the only playoff spot from the SE.

With a 12% PP ... it ain't gonna be the Canes.   

Another year where my playoff tickets cost will be frozen at $zero.

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Sports Club Chances as of 4/1

 

Jets  48.

Carolina  36.1

Craps   32.1

 

the team that put together a decent win streak will take the divisison

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