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Greg-N-Ral

Probability Canes make the playoffs (2012-2013 season)

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Honestly, I don't see the Canes picking up more than 8 more points by season's end. They are playing the best in the East, and are struggling. Chuck Kaiton said he thought it would take 56 points to make the playoffs. I don't see the Canes getting close to 50 points. 

 

Doom and gloom, but it's my honest opinion. 

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Honestly, I don't see the Canes picking up more than 8 more points by season's end. They are playing the best in the East, and are struggling. Chuck Kaiton said he thought it would take 56 points to make the playoffs. I don't see the Canes getting close to 50 points. 

 

Doom and gloom, but it's my honest opinion. 

 

54 points is looking more like the magic number for the playoffs.

Edited by wxray1

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And that still leaves the Canes needing 10 wins out of 14 games. I'd like to be optimistic, but I don't see any way they get close to 10 wins. I think 4 or 5 is more realistic, if not generous. 

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the ONLY way for the Canes to punch a ticket to the playoffs is for them to win the SE division.  They must win tonight and then again in DC.    playing 500 hockey the rest of the season will not work either

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Ok, here it is, using Monte Carlo Simulation....  the Simulator played out 100,000 season.

Below gives us an unbiased statistical view of how the Eastern Conference plays out, and naturally the odds of the Canes making the playoffs...




as of 4-5-2013
 
TEAM           AVG RANK   AVG PTS    %MAKE PO
pit                  1.48      68.99    1.00000
bos                  2.25      66.15    1.00000
mon                  2.33      65.88    1.00000
tor                  4.97      56.67    0.96238
ott                  4.98      56.66    0.96153
nyr                  7.71      51.94    0.61706
nyi                  8.50      50.88    0.47486
nj                   8.53      50.86    0.47042
was                  8.72      50.61    0.68613
phi                  9.84      49.22    0.26843
win                 11.10      47.67    0.20841
buf                 11.52      47.08    0.08756
tb                  11.66      46.83    0.09072
car                 11.93      46.44    0.16742
fl                  14.45      41.56    0.00508


The Canes, as of this morning, have a 16.7% chance of making the playoffs.

 
 
Now, if they win tonight against the NYR, their odds go to 23%. A loss tonight against NY and the Canes odds drop even further to 9.8%!

For the optimistic among us...


If they finish 8-4, the odds of them making it are 44%!

Bottom line... we really need them to go 9-3 to feel confident they'll make it.

 

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Bottom line... we really need them to go 9-3 to feel confident they'll make it.

 

given the Canes track record this season how confident can we be they will achieve this goal?  In 36  games they have notched only 16 wins. This goal requires a complete turn-around from the season.  Not going to happen.  What needs to happen are serious decisions as to the UFAs we keep or let go.

d

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given the Canes track record this season how confident can we be they will achieve this goal?  

Based on the math, and a ton of factors that go into the forecasting simulation model...   not very....  namely 16.7% chance. 

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I don't think any Canes fan who breaths air needs a Monte Carlo simulation to understand that the playoffs are long gone.

Perhaps that was meant to be a dig Edenton man?  LOL

In any case, I guess you know what all Canes fans think/know and can speak for them, eh?

Funny thing is, I see people (like our great OBXer) on this board saying things like "we are only 4 points away from a playoff spot and we have 12 games to go."

OBX sounds like he might think our chances are NOT "long gone." 

Math shows us 16.7%.

Your comments suggests the odds are ZERO, or  "long gone."

So who's right?  You?  

I'll put my money on math and proven methods, but that's just me.

NC side note: OBX over Inner Banks any day of the week!!

 

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The team may rally back...they may not.  Ellis is going to play harder then ever, you can count on that. Hopefully the D steps up and contributes on offense and defense.   Ever way.....I'm not counting us out just yet.

 

 

Call me crazy.

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The team may rally back...they may not.  Ellis is going to play harder then ever, you can count on that. Hopefully the D steps up and contributes on offense and defense.   Ever way.....I'm not counting us out just yet.

 

 

Call me crazy.

 

Right with you 71!!  

It's a big "if" but....  the math shows us....  

"if they win tonight against the NYR, their odds go to 23%."

 

That gives them a fighting chance!!!

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Not at all to  trivialize the very real stages of grief that someone goes through when a loved one passes. a fan goes through similar stages his team playoff hopes goes "belly -up. " One of the stages is denial (just x points out of a playoff spot)  the final stage is acceptance.  Just be like a Cubs fan:  enjoy the remaining games of this season and look forward to next year.

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Not at all to  trivialize the very real stages of grief that someone goes through when a loved one passes. a fan goes through similar stages his team playoff hopes goes "belly -up. " One of the stages is denial (just x points out of a playoff spot)  the final stage is acceptance.  Just be like a Cubs fan:  enjoy the remaining games of this season and look forward to next year.

Cool insights about fans grieving the loss of a season similar to "real life" issues.

If "belly-up" means 0% chance of making it, I disagree dog-man,

but if "belly-up" means 16-17% chance or something in that ballpark, I'm right with you!!

To use your analogy, lets not "pull the plug" on our patient just yet.

 

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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Cool insights about fans grieving the loss of a season similar to "real life" issues.

If "belly-up" means 0% chance of making it, I disagree dog-man,

but if "belly-up" means 16-17% chance or something in that ballpark, I'm right with you!!

To use your analogy, lets not "pull the plug" on our patient just yet.

 

Well, I for one am saying "somewhere between snowball's chance in hell and when pigs fly."

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Yeah Greg, I think I'm right, and not only right, but dead on.  I'd say our chances of making the playoffs are essentially zero. 

 

And I honestly think most Canes fans believe the same thing.

 

Nothing against your simulation, but it's a little late in the game to think that 16.7% is statistically different than zero.  Feel free to show me with your math if it isn't please.  And this is coming from a guy who really likes stats.

 

And ya know, Edenton and the Albemarle Sound area is quite beautiful, and a great place to live.  It's not crowded like the OBX and full of tourons.

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Ouch..All I said was the Canes are 4 points out. I wil be delightfully surprised if we make it.

 

Edenton is a great place. One of my favorite places. The Outer Banks is a wonderful place even with the "Tourons". I live on Roanoke Island so maybe I'm an "Oilander"

 

I'm just going to enjoy the rest of the season. If a miracle happen terrific and if it doesn't it doesn't.

 

I think it is safe to say our odds are slime at best. But math aside that has never stopped me from hoping.

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I've lost faith, but I'm right there with you OBX'r.  We have 20 people coming to tailgate today, so I think it's safe to say we are squeezing everything we can out of this nightmare of a season.

 

And I borrowed the "touron" quote from the Ocockers, LOL.

 

Carry on Greg, didn't mean to derail your thread.  It really was more of a comment of frustration than a dig on your stats/  Of course you could lose the dog-man (Collie is a she BTW) and Edenton-man innuendos.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I've lost faith, but I'm right there with you OBX'r.  We have 20 people coming to tailgate today, so I think it's safe to say we are squeezing everything we can out of this nightmare of a season.

 

And I borrowed the "touron" quote from the Ocockers, LOL.

 

That's great. I hope the wind isn't as strong in Raleigh today as it is at the beach. I guess it is time to put expectations away and just enjoy what it is. By the way and just for full disclosure I have been know to mutter the word Touron from time to time myself.

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I've lost faith, but I'm right there with you OBX'r.  We have 20 people coming to tailgate today, so I think it's safe to say we are squeezing everything we can out of this nightmare of a season

 

Actually. I am a guy just have a love of collies.  I have had two that I lost to cancer  My oldest is a pure-bred collie and my youngest is a collie/golden mix.

 

enjoy this great weather for you tailgate and enjoy the game.  couldn't find a ticket at a price I am willing to  and location I want to sit

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Well, I for one am saying "somewhere between snowball's chance in hell and when pigs fly."

 

I'm with you... stats are great, but the way we've been playing our chances are zero.  Now that we've slipped out of even being in a spot and are now down in 9th/10th it's pretty much over.  Winnapeg is winning/has won today so they are moving up as well.  Oh damn.. I just looked and we are in 13th? Winnapeg takes over the division lead and goes to 6 points over us with a win today.  

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Yes, it is still mathematically possible for the Canes to gain a playoff spot.   But to so, requires a 180 degree change from the way they hare played all season

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I think it is safe to say our odds are slime at best. But math aside that has never stopped me from hoping.

 

Yes.  Very slimey.  Gooey.  Stinky.  :)

 

Winnepig won,  Washington won, Canes lost.  Ouch, that's gonna leave a mark in Greg's stats.

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