Probability Canes make the playoffs (2012-2013 season)

[PamlicoPuck]

Yeah Greg, I think I'm right, and not only right, but dead on.  I'd say our chances of making the playoffs are essentially zero. 

 

And I honestly think most Canes fans believe the same thing.

 

Nothing against your simulation, but it's a little late in the game to think that 16.7% is statistically different than zero.  Feel free to show me with your math if it isn't please.  And this is coming from a guy who really likes stats.

 

And ya know, Edenton and the Albemarle Sound area is quite beautiful, and a great place to live.  It's not crowded like the OBX and full of tourons.

Hey dont leave out the Pamlico area...

[fpsndiver]

0

[OBXer]

Yes.  Very slimey.  Gooey.  Stinky. 

 

Winnepig won,  Washington won, Canes lost.  Ouch, that's gonna leave a mark in Greg's stats.

 

Love it when I'm accurate. haha

[TheBigKahuna]

ZERO! 

 

Time to quit talking about it. 

[super_dave_1]

I've lurked around the edge of this thread without commenting. Exactly what has this team done in the last 3 weeks to make anybody think they are capable of flipping the switch and winning enough games to climb the mountain? They have zero chance and they play like they know it. They win few puck battles, hit nobody, play matador defense with their sticks, and skate about chasing the puck.

Playoffs? You're talking about playoffs?

[Greg-N-Ral]

No reason to think they'll turn around, Fully agree SuperD1.

So after our loss last night, and WAS, WPEG, NYI and of course the NYR all winning...

The math naturally gets worse, a lot worse.... 

as of 4-7-2013

 

TEAM           AVG RANK   AVG PTS    %MAKE PO

pit                  1.47      69.01    1.00000

mon                  2.05      66.88    1.00000

bos                  2.57      65.03    0.99999

tor                  4.76      57.47    0.98287

ott                  5.11      56.67    0.96366

nyr                  7.03      53.09    0.76212

nyi                  7.80      51.92    0.62694

was                  7.97      51.70    0.77501

nj                   9.35      49.82    0.31611

win                 10.19      48.74    0.26454

phi                 10.62      48.14    0.14619

buf                 11.52      46.88    0.07015

tb                  12.33      45.59    0.03515

car                 12.59      45.15    0.05676

fl                  14.63      40.27    0.00051

Clearly nice odds now for the Rangers and Caps. And the Islanders are looking solid too.

For us, we have a decent chance of "catching" TB and finishing 14th overall in the East.  

In turn, I was hoping if we continue to tank, passing FL and TB and drafting SETH JONES (D)  would be a possibility.  But, even that ray of hope for next year isn't likely as CO is the clear odds-on-favorite for him now, even with us winning just 2 or 3 more the rest of the way.   Jones going back home to Denver certainly will be a big story line during the draft.

The good news for us?  Canes should get a top-5 draft pick next year, just not likely to be Jones (the one I think we really need)!

 

Edited April 7, 2013 by Greg-N-Ral

[stephenk24]

I may be a "newer" fan, but I have never been as depressed about a team before. Totally gutted that out chances are pretty much over... Another year of watching two teams I don't care about in the finals....

[colliefan]

I may be a "newer" fan, but I have never been as depressed about a team before. Totally gutted that out chances are pretty much over... Another year of watching two teams I don't care about in the finals....

 

 

now that the Canes are all but mathematically eliminated the only team I care about will be in a negative way: just want to see the Crapitals eliminated

[stephenk24]

A tragic end to a season with so much promise, was really hyped until the last few weeks... ;/

[caniac-1-1]

Well, it's been a hilarious thread almost from the start.  I hope it continues, but I can always flip back and read about the Canes "53% chance to make the playoffs" if I need to.

[wxray1]

Well, it's been a hilarious thread almost from the start.  I hope it continues, but I can always flip back and read about the Canes "53% chance to make the playoffs" if I need to.

 

When you are done reading that, you can flip to the STH renewal brochure, and read JR's humorous note:

 

Though our team has faced some adversity this season with injuries, we feel confident that we have a roster capable

of a deep run in this year’s playoffs.

[AWACSooner]

now that the Canes are all but mathematically eliminated the only team I care about will be in a negative way: just want to see the Crapitals eliminated

1st round bounce

[remkin]

Need to change this to probability Canes get top draft pick.

[Greg-N-Ral]

Need to change this to probability Canes get top draft pick.

 

 

Currently at ~11%... but trending in the "right" direction... 

[djharley]

PLAYOFF'S,,,,DID YOU SAY PLAYOFF'S

 

[colliefan]

we could use a bull moose on the blue-line

[Canesnut]

I would take a snowballs chance in hell better than our chances of making the playoffs

[Canesnut]

Oh yeah! Resign your season ticket packages and get playoff priority LOL this product at a higher rate no thanks!!!

[TheBigKahuna]

At this point, several teams would need to lose out, and the Canes win out. And that's impossible. Some of those teams ahead of the Canes play each other. But, I don't know many people still clinging to the "If the Canes get on a hot streak" train of thought, except for Tripp Tracy. 

 

 

I'm more concerned with hoping that Florida and Calgary pass the Canes in the overall standings! Finishing 29th would be better than finishing 27th or 26th. 

Edited April 10, 2013 by TheBigKahuna

[Greg-N-Ral]

clinging to the "If the Canes get on a hot streak" train of thought, except for Tripp Tracy. 

 

 

I'm more concerned with hoping that Florida and Calgary pass the Canes in the overall standings! Finishing 29th would be better than finishing 27th or 26th. 

I agree with The Big K!!!

 

[colliefan]

at least Canes management changed the jumbotron message and only promoted the 10% discount on drinks and food for the full and 26 game STH