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Greg-N-Ral

POLL: And with the 5th pick in the 2013 NHL Draft, the Carolina Hurricanes pick.....

Canes First Round Pick?  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. What should the Canes do with thier first round pick?

    • Pick Sean Monohan, C
      3
    • Pick Aleksander Barkov, C (if available)
      10
    • Pick Valerie Nichushkin, RW (if available)
      12
    • Pick Darnell Nurse, D
      1
    • Pick Rasmus Ristolainen, D
      0
    • Trade Down out of 5th pick, ex: get 8th and 16th overall)
      8
    • Trade Up, get an elite top-3 pick (won't come cheap)
      0


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That seems a little excessive. Giving them two number one picks and a roster player. What I don't understand is why so many here think Joni is trade bait with his broken heel. Why would a GM take the chance before Joni skates again?

 

Our first + McBain would likely be what we would offer, maybe toss in Harrison. I don't see them trading away their first just to move down, if they're looking into trading it's going to be for pieces in return.

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Our first + McBain would likely be what we would offer, maybe toss in Harrison. I don't see them trading away their first just to move down, if they're looking into trading it's going to be for pieces in return.

 

I'm thinking that would be more like it. But I'll bet they would want Gleason.

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This whole 'Nichushkin situation' is really not our style.  With such a great pick in a deep draft we can make this team a little stronger for years to come.  It's really a time where we need to be conservative and get a team player with no distractions or 'way-out' other than that of his general manager.  It seems like we are fighting both the player and his former league in this - we have to keep him happy, be content with how he wants to play or he'll let them take him away.  Lets not forget that he has two routes he can take and in either case he'll come out on top - he can be a star here or a superstar there.  I don't know his character and I doubt JR can learn who the real Nichushkin is before the draft... we can't say what this kid will do once we hand in our valuable pick for him.  For all we know he could come here and not want to work hard, he could be what people claimed Semin was and we'd be stuck with him.  He wouldn't develop being stuck on the 4th line with little minutes (which we all know is the trend in Carolina when you don't work the system).  It would be a catastrophe - basically a wasted pick that would be untradable once the 'cat was out of the bag' on his attitude.  Picking this guy could be a dagger in the back with 'Nichushkin: KHL' on the handle.  Or it could be a bullet wound in the foot, depending how you look at it.

If we need to send him down, the KHL isn't going to try to develop him to play well in the NHL, they're going to do whatever it takes to make him a mainstay in their league.  Why would they help the NHL out like that?  And even if they did honestly try to make him a better north-American style player, would they be qualified to do so?

 

With this kind of opportunity, if Nichushkin is on the board I'd probably trade my pick to someone who is desperate for him.  Acquire a solid vet defensemen and their 1st Round Pick via the trade and draft the best player available, or acquire two solid vet defensemen.  With Nichushkin as a bargaining chip we could probably land something nice to a team who wants him bad enough.  After all, what we need is defensemen, this draft was basically an unexpected bonus for flopping last season.  Anyway, that's it, that's where I stand on this.  I'm tired of the drama coming out of Russia.  "He's staying.  He's not staying.  He's coming but with leverage and a round trip ticket..."  Let someone else deal with that powder keg and just do what's best for this team, JR.

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Well a little while ago a team was going to have to wait 2 years for him anyway. Recently several players have done just that, gone to the KHL for a couple of years.

 

This gives us a decent shot to see if he can play at this level and if not send him back to the KHL. But there is a outstanding chance that he'll be able to at least take the wing away from Bowman for crying out loud. He is ELITE. He will make the team. But if not, the guy's 18 . Most of our 18 year olds that don't make the team go back to Junior hockey, not the AHL. Can't think a year in the KHL is worse developmentally than junior hockey for an elite prospect.

 

Sure he's playing it outside the box. If he's not going to play NHL he'd rather be home making some money than in a foreign country shlepping around in a bus making minor league money, or in Juniors shlepping around making....do they make anything? Does this make him a prima donna, or smart?

 

I'd rather someone ahead of us take this on, and leave us Barkov or dare I say Drouin, but if he is there at 5 and those guys are gone: TAKE HIM!!!!!!

Edited by remkin

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Why on earth would the Avs trade away the #1 overall (stud Seth Jones)  for the 5th overall and McBain?

Come on guys, that post would get laughed off the COL message board.


Think about it... IF WE had the #1 overall... would we trade it away for the 5th pick (a pick with risk) + McBain????  
(and in turn, let go one of the best draft picks to come down the road in 8-years),

Its going to take a lot more than that to get Seth Jones!

 

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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For all we know he could come here and not want to work hard, he could be what people claimed Semin was and we'd be stuck with him. He wouldn't develop being stuck on the 4th line with little minutes (which we all know is the trend in Carolina when you don't work the system). It would be a catastrophe - basically a wasted pick that would be untradable once the 'cat was out of the bag' on his attitude. Picking this guy could be a dagger in the back with 'Nichushkin: KHL' on the handle. Or it could be a bullet wound in the foot, depending how you look at it.

If we need to send him down, the KHL isn't going to try to develop him to play well in the NHL, they're going to do whatever it takes to make him a mainstay in their league. Why would they help the NHL out like that? And even if they did honestly try to make him a better north-American style player, would they be qualified to do so?

...or he could turn out to be one hell of a player. And as far as development goes, I would think that a player playing against men in the KHL would develop more than playing against those in the AHL/OHL/etc.. If they want to develop him to best help their team, I can't see it being much different than trying to make him better over here. If he wants to improve (and I am sure he does) the level of competition in the KHL would make up for any specific instruction he would get over here IMO. He also doesn't have a "round trip ticket." We would choose to send him there to develop, he can't just leave on his own. If he did something like that he would never play in the NHL, and I really think he wants to play in the best league in the world.

Having said that, I do understand the concerns. But passing on Nich for Monahan or Lindholm that is a tough one, players with Nichushkin's size, speed, and skill don't come along often. On the other hand you made a good point about this being an opportunity and maybe being more conservative or addressing our needs on defense. Monahan and Lindholm also seem like character guys/leaders. It's tough.

Edited by Kyrule

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I am pretty sure there are going to be some surprises ahead of us this year.  Mock drafts and message boards are fun, but there is a reason that none of us, or the mockers, have an NHL GM job.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Colorado trade the pick, and I wouldn't be surprised if we made an offer for it.  I would be surprised if we selected Jones with the pick.  MacKinnon is the safest pick and more JR's style.  I really think our pick will come down to Drouin, Barkov, Nich, or Lindholm with two of them already off the board.  I could also see someone going off the board for Zadorov.  You can't teach or develop that kind of size. That could leave three of those four on the board for us.  It seems like Nich would be a good fit with J. Staal and Ruutu and Barkov would be a better fit with Skiner and ???.  That being said, I no longer think Nich is going to be available at #5.

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I think there is zero chance JR would take Lindholm over Monahan if that's a choice he was faced with.  He's only drafted one Euro\Russian in the first round (Knyazev) and he bolted back to Russia before ever playing an NHL game.

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I do wonder about trades up and down. Since this draft is so deep the tempation would be to trade down in general, but if a GM had a serious love for a guy and needed to move up a few spots and the team above had a need and liked a few guys....

 

I wonder more about us trading down than up.

 

If it goes Jone, MacKinnon, Drouin, Barkov, do we trade down rather than messing with the Nich thing.

As I posted I'd take Nich vs someone else, but to trade down, especially if we picked up a solid vet NHL dman as part of it...

 

Get Nurse or Zadorov or Monahan or Ristoleinen PLUS an NHL dman?

 

Gotta at least thing about it.

 

 

This draft is compared to E. Staals draft, which was also super deep. I can't do it right now, but does anyone know if there were more trades than usual that year?

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The only trade in the first round of that draft I remember was the Panthers trading their first (Fluery) to the Penguins for their third (Nathan Horton I'm pretty sure), another pick, and a player.

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Since when is our pick a risky pick? In some ways I'd sayour pick is safer than the first overall. With Nichushkin gunning for an NHL roster spot, there are five elite picks to be made, leaving us one of them. Yeah it's the last of that crop, but sometimes the guy that falls to you ends up being better than the guy would've picked.

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That seems a little excessive. Giving them two number one picks and a roster player. What I don't understand is why so many here think Joni is trade bait with his broken heel. Why would a GM take the chance before Joni skates again?

So are you suggesting the Avs would be foolish to not take our #5 overall and our #1 next year and Pits for this year's #1 overall -- Seth Jones -- perhaps the best draft pick to come out in 8 years?

 

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So are you suggesting the Avs would be foolish to not take our #5 overall and our #1 next year and Pits for this year's #1 overall -- Seth Jones -- perhaps the best draft pick to come out in 8 years?

 

I'm suggesting we would be foolish to trade two number one picks and a roster player to move up. I'm also suggesting if the Av's pass on a player like Jones or Mackinnon it is because they want a solid player to help out in the now. Joni was hurt. I guess I'm saying the two number one picks is too much and Joni is not enough.

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Here is a really interesting article on what it costs to move up or down the draft in terms of packaging picks for other picks. Throwing a good NHL vet into the mix isn't really considered, but you can make some guesses. It is based on actual trades. What it actually took to move up or down historically.

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

 

A few key points.

 

The #1 pick is considered hugely valuable. Based on this guy's model, for a team to move from #5 to #1 would require ANOTHER #5 pick (like we happened to have the #5 AND #6 pick and we give them BOTH up for #1). So that is insane.

 

Moving up from 5 to 4 would cost much less in a typical year. Almost could be done with our 3rd rounder plus the #5 pick, on paper. I highly doubt it would be that easy this year though since the top 5 are seen by many as a block. 

 

Moving to #3 to get into Jones, Drouin, MacKinnon triad, would cost our very high second rounder plus our #5 pick. 

 

Given the depth of this draft we would be nuts to do that. 

 

So I don't see us trading up. 

 

Trading down, would depend on how far. But the math of this guy's model would suggest that dropping to #8 should net us that team's second round pick at 38. Given the depth of this draft, that would be worth considering. 

 

One of Monahan, Nurse, Lidholm would be there at #8, and we could pick up something nice at #38 this year. 

 

IF we could really trade up one spot with an early third rounder....what if that was Drouin. But somehow that seems unlikely, so trading down would be the move to make if we move. 

 

Would say New Jersey or Buffalo give up a solid NHL dman to move up? Hmmm. 

 

Edmonton has had so many picks over the years maybe they value quality over quantity....if they would give up their second rounder to move up, we would pick 7th and 35th and 37th in a super deep draft and still get a dang good first rounder.

 

In the end the vast majority of GM's just make their pick and I suspect we will too.

Edited by remkin

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Since when is our pick a risky pick? In some ways I'd sayour pick is safer than the first overall. With Nichushkin gunning for an NHL roster spot, there are five elite picks to be made, leaving us one of them. Yeah it's the last of that crop, but sometimes the guy that falls to you ends up being better than the guy would've picked.

Agreed. I still want Nichushkin if the other four are gone, but again I think Monahan is also a very solid/safe pick. Monahan and Lindholm have been ranked very high for a long time. Early rankings had them at #3 and #4. I also agree with Coastal, no way does JR take Lindholm over Monahan. It seems that most Calgary fans are asking for Monahan at #6 also.

Speaking of risk, you make a good point about the guys that "falls" to you. Drouin carries risk in that he may not be able to use his skills as effectively in the NHL. Barkov already had a shoulder injury and there are questions about his skating and conditioning. Nichushkin has the "Russian factor." Every player carries some risk, the draft is always a cross your fingers and hope affair.

The bottom line is we are going to end up with Drouin, Barkov, Nichushkin, or Monahan, and I would be very happy with any of them. Lindholm also but I don't think we take him. There are a lot of teams that would love to have that level of choice.

To be honest, I will be flat out shocked if our pick doesn't end up as Barkov, Nichushkin, or Monahan. I really believe it is going to be one of them. Drouin may fall due to the "size factor", but I don't see it happening.

Edited by Kyrule

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I'm suggesting we would be foolish to trade two number one picks and a roster player to move up. I'm also suggesting if the Av's pass on a player like Jones or Mackinnon it is because they want a solid player to help out in the now. Joni was hurt. I guess I'm saying the two number one picks is too much and Joni is not enough.

 

 

If I'm the Canes GM, I would give up our #5 overall and next year's #1 plus Pits in  a heart beat to get this year's #1 (Jones)!  Not even close.  Jones plus 5-mill freed up in cap room --- WOW that would make this team more viable in a flash!!!!

My guess is Roy and the Avs would never trade Seth Jones for our #5, plus #1 next year plus Pits.

Jimmy Johnson had a great rule of thumb, a pick this year is worth a pick one round higher next year.

ex: a 4th round pick this year, is worth a 3rd round pick next year.

This is one of the rules he used to dominate trades back in the NFL. In part, it allowed him to take Dallas from near the bottom to many SB rings.  Jimmy did it via the draft!  I'm no Cowboys fan, but lets face it, our JR ain't no JJ -- not even close!.

 

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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I've decided that I want Nichushkin the most (even over Drouin).  He is exactly what this team needs. It's rare that you see a combination of speed and size like he offers.  I've been reading up on him nonstop and checking out all the highlight videos of him and he looks like a Rick Nash type player.  

 

As I've said before, a 3rd line of Nich-Skins-Ruutu would be amazing to watch.  I've been against putting Skinner on the 3rd line but that sounds like too much of a good fit to me.  In this scenario, the 2nd line would be Jordan with Dwyer and possibly a FA vet.  

Edited by TheFaulker

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Based on this guy's model, for a team to move from #5 to #1 would require ANOTHER #5 pick (like we happened to have the #5 AND #6 pick and we give them BOTH up for #1).  

So that is insane.

 

 

Spot on!  The #5 and #6 overall, is typically worth more than the #1 (in the NFL).   I suspect its close in the NHL as well.

1700 vs 1200 (5+6 vs 1) value points.

Now, assuming the Canes pick 15th overall next season... its actually pretty fair to trade the #5 overall this year and 15th overall next year for the #1 this year.

1100 vs 1200 (value points)

 

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I've decided that I want Nichushkin the most (even over Drouin).  He is exactly what this team needs. It's rare that you see a combination of speed and size like he offers.  I've been reading up on him nonstop and checking out all the highlight videos of him and he looks like a Rick Nash type player.  

 

As I've said before, a 3rd line of Nich-Skins-Ruutu would be amazing to watch.  I've been against putting Skinner on the 3rd line but that sounds like too much of a good fit to me.  In this scenario, the 2nd line would be Jordan with Dwyer and possibly a FA vet.  

Same here. I let all of the talk about the "Russian factor" influence me, but I am sticking with my original pick. Like I said, I think he is the best fit. Now that he is "100%" dedicated to coming here, I feel even more comfortable with this pick. Between Nich and Barkov it is tough, but I would take them both over Drouin.

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I've decided that I want Nichushkin the most (even over Drouin).  He is exactly what this team needs. It's rare that you see a combination of speed and size like he offers.  I've been reading up on him nonstop and checking out all the highlight videos of him and he looks like a Rick Nash type player.  

 

As I've said before, a 3rd line of Nich-Skins-Ruutu would be amazing to watch.  I've been against putting Skinner on the 3rd line but that sounds like too much of a good fit to me.  In this scenario, the 2nd line would be Jordan with Dwyer and possibly a FA vet.  

I agree with your assessment of Nich but after reading the TB scouting report, I wouldn't put a couple of potential individualists on the same line. I'd rather see a line of Nich-J Staal-Ruutu. Put Skinner as 3rd line center with anybody else ... maybe a Ryane Clowe type who can have Skinner's back.

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I agree with your assessment of Nich but after reading the TB scouting report, I wouldn't put a couple of potential individualists on the same line. I'd rather see a line of Nich-J Staal-Ruutu. Put Skinner as 3rd line center with anybody else ... maybe a Ryane Clowe type who can have Skinner's back.

 

We would be an epic failure of an organization with skins as the third line center.  How can we afford to pay 6 million for a checking line center (whether that is the 2nd or 3rd line)?  Nich needs to be drafted to play on the 2nd line with Staal and Skins.  Either that or draft a guy that can step into the checking line center role. 

Edited by gocanes0506

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NHL.com has a write-up about Nichushkin and his desire to be a top player his first year.

 

"Valeri's goal is not to just make the team, but to be one of the top players in the NHL in his first year, and that's why he's staying in North America the entire summer and going through a tremendous fitness routine," Gandler said.

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=672471&navid=DL|NHL|home

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We would be an epic failure of an organization with skins as the third line center.  How can we afford to pay 6 million for a checking line center (whether that is the 2nd or 3rd line)?  Nich needs to be drafted to play on the 2nd line with Staal and Skins.  Either that or draft a guy that can step into the checking line center role. 

Why, because of his somewhat inflated salary? Skinner does not play well with others when he's on the wing. Perhaps spending time as an NHL center, he will improve his vision of the ice, setting-up others, and his defensive game. Now he keeps his head down doing his whirl-a-ramas and/or getting knocked off-balance. With Skinner on the 3rd line and our #5 pick on the 2nd line, the Canes could have 3 scoring lines and not relagate the 3rd to a checking line.

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