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Greg-N-Ral

POLL: And with the 5th pick in the 2013 NHL Draft, the Carolina Hurricanes pick.....

Canes First Round Pick?  

34 members have voted

  1. 1. What should the Canes do with thier first round pick?

    • Pick Sean Monohan, C
      3
    • Pick Aleksander Barkov, C (if available)
      10
    • Pick Valerie Nichushkin, RW (if available)
      12
    • Pick Darnell Nurse, D
      1
    • Pick Rasmus Ristolainen, D
      0
    • Trade Down out of 5th pick, ex: get 8th and 16th overall)
      8
    • Trade Up, get an elite top-3 pick (won't come cheap)
      0


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As of right now, the odds of the Canes landing the #1 pick (Seth Jones) are about 11.0%.
(not 1-2%)

Now, naturally, if they keeping trending like they are, the odds will only get better! Catching FL and CALG looks very doable now.
 

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As of right now, the odds of the Canes landing the #1 pick (Seth Jones) are about 11.0%.

(not 1-2%)

Now, naturally, if they keeping trending like they are, the odds will only get better! Catching FL and CALG looks very doable now.

 

That's your opinion with your simulation.  Take it up with the Sports Club Stats guy for his opinion.

 

He weights previous records pretty heavily.  He has a 50-50 button with is closer to 5%.

 

It doesn't matter.  It is still a longshot for them to get #1 position, but it could happen.

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Even if we don't get #1 a top 5 pick is the kind of pick that can make teams trade you top assets if we felt all we could get is another forward

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...Actually the near 11% I mentioned is from the new NHL CBA. 


Guys,

Here are the odds of each non-playoff team landing the #1 pick overall this season (it's just math; no opinions or simulations).

Team 1  25.0%

Team 2  18.8%

Team 3  14.2%

Team 4  10.7% -- (currently Canes stand right here)

Team 5  8.1%

Team 6  6.2%

Team 7  4.7%

Team 8  3.6%

Team 9  2.7%

Team 10  2.1%

Team 11  1.5%

Team 12  1.1%

Team 13  0.8%

Team 14  0.5%


Now, we might argue, based on trends,  the Canes will "gain ground" on FL and CALG and hence "move up" in the race for Jones!


But in any case, saying the Canes have a 1-2% chance is just not accurate. It's much better than that.

If the season ended right now, its 11% (10.7% if you want to get exact).

Personally, I think it could "improve" to 18.8%, but that's just my opinion.


Hope that helps clear up any issue on our odds of landing big-boy Jones!




 

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Sports Club stats raised the Cane's odds on #1 position from 1% to 2% last night.  Woo hoo!  More realistically, it added a lot of odds to #3 and #4.

 

Remember, there's a lottery.  Get #3 or #4, and they might still lottery in as #1 pick.  Unless of course, Bettman rigs it to get the Penguins first pick again.

 

If the Pens get the 1st overall pick it will be the biggest rig ever:

 

Since A: the Pens have already locked in a playoff spot, & no playoff team will be included in the lottery for the #1 pick...

 

And B: the Pens don't currently own a 1st round pick since that was traded to Calgary!!!

 

I hope the Canes can move up to at least the #2 pick, because A: that give them a 19% chance at #1, but also means they will pick no lower than #3.

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...Actually the near 11% I mentioned is from the new NHL CBA. 

Guys,

Here are the odds of each non-playoff team landing the #1 pick overall this season (it's just math; no opinions or simulations).

Team 1  25.0%

Team 2  18.8%

Team 3  14.2%

Team 4  10.7% -- (currently Canes stand right here)

...

Personally, I think it could "improve" to 18.8%, but that's just my opinion.

Hope that helps clear up any issue on our odds of landing big-boy Jones!

 

 

Ah yes, I see Greg.  We are agreeing!  I misunderstood your first post.  Sorry.  I was talking about the PRE-lottery position of #1 being a super long shot.  You are looking at a current likely #4 pre-lottery position with adds up to about 10%.  I AGREE!

 

And yeah, they could slip to pre-lottery #2.  Very possible.  That would increase the odds more to 19%.  Not at all impossible.

 

If the Pens get the 1st overall pick it will be the biggest rig ever:

 

Since A: the Pens have already locked in a playoff spot, & no playoff team will be included in the lottery for the #1 pick...

 

And B: the Pens don't currently own a 1st round pick since that was traded to Calgary!!!

 

I hope the Canes can move up to at least the #2 pick, because A: that give them a 19% chance at #1, but also means they will pick no lower than #3.

 

I was being a provocative jerk.  Pens fans rubbed off on me.

 

You are right, no Pens this year.  But if Detroit does a Cane's-style slip and loses 6 or 7  of their remaining games, then they would be in the lottery.  Imagine if they somehow pulled a #1 pick out of the hat?  That would be interesting indeed.

Edited by wxray1

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Littled noticed is that Sports Club Stats has a section for most likely draft position for each team.

 

If you go to the absolute bottom of the Canes page: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Carolina.html

 

You'll see the simulation currently has the Canes best pegged for 4th pick position.  (The lottery could change things after that.)

 

Even if we don't get #1 a top 5 pick is the kind of pick that can make teams trade you top assets if we felt all we could get is another forward

Which brings up what do we do if Jones is taken first and we aren't first?

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I'm just drooling over this potential defense:

 

Faulk - Gleason

Pitkanen - Jones

Harrison - Bellemore/Murray

 

Jones seems like someone who could work with Pitkanen very well, plus he's ready to jump into the NHL next season. We just need to tank a bit more to increase our odds of getting him.

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I'm just drooling over this potential defense:

 

Faulk - Gleason

Pitkanen - Jones

Harrison - Bellemore/Murray

 

Jones seems like someone who could work with Pitkanen very well, plus he's ready to jump into the NHL next season. We just need to tank a bit more to increase our odds of getting him.

 

If this is the case, then they are only changing 1 defensive position compared to this year.  Obviously not good enough.  I say get rid of Pitkanen (and McBain as you showed) for someone else as well.  That way there are at least 2 new d-men with the possibility of Murphy being in there as well.  

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If this is the case, then they are only changing 1 defensive position compared to this year.  Obviously not good enough.  I say get rid of Pitkanen (and McBain as you showed) for someone else as well.  That way there are at least 2 new d-men with the possibility of Murphy being in there as well.  

 

I doubt Murphy is going to be up next year, he's just more of what we had more then enough of this year (offensive, small, non phyiscal d-men.) Jones is a very good two way guy, his defensive zone coverage is amazing, he isn't afraid to lay out big hits and he's very good at moving the puck out of the zone. Offensively, he has a bomb similar to Babchuk's, he has nice hands and can jump up into the rush, he's essentially someone who can take over a game from the back end.

 

Faulk and Gleason seem to work well together, and will work better if Gleason shows up to play like he gives a damn next season. Pits and Jones would give us a sound pairing defensively while also allowing them to make any of our lines out there with them lethal offensively. Harrison and Belle/Murray would be our gritty pairing meant to wear down forecheckers by playing the body and simply chipping pucks deep.

 

So I don't think there's really a need to move Pits if we draft Jones, especially since he eats minutes for us like nobody else and tends to get more crap then he deserves. If we don't get Jones then, we'd likely only move Pits to get substantial pieces in return, which isn't a guarantee. As for Murphy, like I said, I just don't see him being up full time.

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The odds of us getting the number 1 pick are still slim, I think we need to concentrate on numbers 3-6 range on the draft. Of course our current pace we may move "up" to maybe 2-4 range, but history and odds are against us on getting the top spot.

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If we don't get the #1 pick, I hope we get #2 or #3. Mackinnon and Drouin would be #1 overalls in different years and both satisfy a need since we got rid of Jokinen and Sutter. Mackinnon could be our 3rd line center or if we get Drouin, we could bump Tlusty down to the 3rd line.

Eric-Semin-Tlusty

Jordan-Skinner-Ruutu

Mackinnon-Dwyer-Dalpe

Nash-Westgarth-Bowman

 or

Eric-Semin-Dalpe

Jordan-Skinner-Ruutu

Tlusty-Dwyer-Drouin

Nash-Westgarth-Bowman

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I know this is a draft thread so I don't want to turn it into a lines thread but I think tlusty has earned his spot a the top line and I don't think he should be dropped not sure if Dalpe even belongs on the team next year he would really have to prove himself in training camp. I do agree it would be nice to get a top three pick.

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The odds of us getting the number 1 pick are still slim, I think we need to concentrate on numbers 3-6 range on the draft. Of course our current pace we may move "up" to maybe 2-4 range, but history and odds are against us on getting the top spot.

 

11% chance at the #1 pick as of right now and given our trend, could easily end up being 18.8% so that gives us some hope.
 
I might try to watch CALG's home game tonight against VAN... go Flames go!!
 
IF we "catch" FLA and CALG (and nobody else tanks more than us) we'll be guaranteed a Top-3 draft pick (worst case).

Win Flames win!   Go Panthers!

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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Think the Canes need to draft my puppy; Max; for a d-man  He has attacked a wooden rocking chair that sat on my deck and a love seat  He apparently got ticked at the rocking chair; turned the chair over and tore apart its seat.  So much for a dog that is a mix of two "calm" breeds (golden and collie)

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What if we get the 2nd pick behind Colorado (or whoever)?  Would you offer Pitkanen and the 2nd pick to that team for the 1st pick?

 

Yes! But would the other team take it???

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In most cases when you draft your building the future and not the now. We have just come through a four year rebuild and I'm not sure I want to wait another 4 years. The draft is important to keep the pipeline open but I would rather trade picks for NHL ready players. I'm just becoming impatient.

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In most cases when you draft your building the future and not the now. We have just come through a four year rebuild and I'm not sure I want to wait another 4 years. The draft is important to keep the pipeline open but I would rather trade picks for NHL ready players. I'm just becoming impatient.

Look for Seth Jones to step right into the NHL.  At latest, jumping in come Nov.

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Look for Seth Jones to step right into the NHL.  At latest, jumping in come Nov.

 

He might but I wouldn't think he is going to save the day. If we get lucky or is that unlucky enough to get one of the first five picks we have to take it. Charlotte needs some new blood too. Other picks I would be willing to trade and combine with prospects but that would probable be for a 3rd or 4th line player. Not that we don't need that. To get the Dman we want we will probable need to go the FA route. With so much money committed on our top two lines I'm not sure how we accomplish that. Still it might be out best bet.

 

add; I'm really just talking out loud or is it playing the what if game. We have a pretty good base of talent and yet I'm having difficulty seeing the fix. I think that is because it will take more than one move to fix whats ailing us.

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Top flight free agents won't be available with the new CBA and the cap going down significantly.  Teams aren't going to give guys like that up.  So, you just can't willy-nilly say the guy we need is going to be picked up through free agency.  And with that, they are going to be expensive.

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Top flight free agents won't be available with the new CBA and the cap going down significantly.  Teams aren't going to give guys like that up.  So, you just can't willy-nilly say the guy we need is going to be picked up through free agency.  And with that, they are going to be expensive.

 

Exactly right. We never really got these guys until the very unusual case of Semin anyway, and this year will be even harder. If JR can find a good not great guy in a cast off situation like Allen was, then maybe, but FA isn't going to be THE answer.

 

An overhaul means more than one new key guy. We are going to have to trade for one, and man would it be nice to pick a guy like Jones for another. It is a long shot, but even getting a guy that is tradable or makes another guy tradable could help.

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