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rememberthewhale

Who should stay and who should go for next year

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Now that we are pretty much done for the year I would like everyone's thoughts on who must go for next year. I think our top six if healthy can be pretty good (staal,staal Ruutu skinner tlusty and semin) beyond that Nash has shown some ability I would be willing to part with any other forwards we have on d the only must keep is Faulk Bellemore has some potential but I don't think he is quite ready for top six maybe our seventh. Not sure what we could get for any of our d but pits might have some return I also think it's time to move Gleason and or Mcbain willing to keep Harrison. We also need a new backup goalie for next year.

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with the mood I am in tonight I would say that a complete house cleaning in needed.  Even Stormy and the Storm Squad get the boot

 

.

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Well, proper net minding is an issue.  Defense is an issue.  Can't develop a play making offense which seems to reflect a system that doesn't work (coaching accountable for that ).  Since we're just about last in all that stats.,  I feel we should start at the top of the food chain and work downward..

 

Sound about right?

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D: Faulk, Bellemore, Harrison, Gleason, Joni, McBain, Corvo, MAB, Murphy

F: Semin, E Staal, J Staal, Tlusty, Skinner, Ruutu, Dwyer, LaRose, Westgarth, Nash, Dalpe, Brent, Bowman

G: Ward, Ellis, Peters

 

Bold = keepers, Strike = move/cut/buyout/don't sign, Italics = unsure

 

Off the top of the head, maybe some points to push someone from one side to another may come up.

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Harrison, McBain, Corvo, MAB need to be moved. Pitkanen should be moved for a substantial return (top pairing guy,) but there's no guarantee that'll happen. If Gleason isn't well conditioned like the past two season then he should be moved at some point next season for a substantial return.

 

Forwards wise, I'd say Semin, the Staals, Tlusty and Skinner are untouchables. Dwyer, LaRose, Westy, Brent and Bowman would be my must move list. Ruutu depends on if there's a playmaking wing available to play nice with Skinner and Jordan, since he's being paid too much to be a third liner.

 

Ellis and Peters shouldn't be coming back.

 

Defensively I'd like to see JR sign Douglas Murray, likely to be paired with Harrison (negative value and cheap salary.) That leaves someone who can allow Pitkanen to be set loose offensively on the 2nd pairing with Gleason and Faulk on the top pairing.

 

Forwards wise, our game seems to be focused around speed through the neutral zone. With that in mind, our fourth line needs to have grit and speed and be our energy line, with the third line needing to be sound defensively while also being able to produce secondary scoring. Like I said above, should look into getting a playmaking wing for the 2nd line, though Ruutu getting a full season with Skinner and Jordan might fix that lines issues.

 

Goaltending wise, really we need someone like Legace, someone who can play behind a hopefully average defense without the team completely losing faith and confidence in him. Bishop could have been that, but he's with the Lightning so who knows who we'll get to deal with this continuing issue.

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Must go (non-players):

JR, Kirk Muller, and all of his staff. This kind of collapse is unacceptable in professional sports. The way the team is losing and the response to those losses is again, unacceptable. It is clear the right players/personnel have not been brought in over the years. Other teams deal with injuries and don't collapse to the point of being the laughing-stock of the league. Now throw in the fact that our special teams are, and have been, a joke and I think it signals the time for major changes starting at the top and trickling down. The team looks absolutely lost with no confidence, no structure, no heart, and no plan. This cannot go unaddressed (meaning major changes need to be made). What if we face injuries and adversity again next year? This has been such a disaster that the effects may linger or the team may say "not this again." We need fresh blood and a fresh start to wipe the slate clean.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Must go (defense):

Corvo, McBain, Pitkanen, Bergeron, and Sanguinetti.

Keep (defense):

Faulk and Bellemore.

Unsure (defense):

Gleason (needs to play like the Gleason of old) and Harrison (just not sure he can be consistent, but he does seem like a good value, or is that an illusion? Does his size make him more attractive than he deserves?).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Must go (forwards):

Brent, Larose, Westgarth, and Bowman.

Keep (forwards):

Semin, Tlusty, Staals, Skinner, and Ruutu (unless he continues to get injured, and he needs to produce to justify his salary. All of these keepers need to produce, I just have the most concern about Ruutu's ability to do so).

Unsure (forwards):

Nash (still not convinced he is the answer, still not convinced he isn't), Dalpe (has looked better since last recall), Dwyer (he is OK but players have to be moved out to make room for more physical players with heart/leadership).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't want to touch the goalie situation but if I had to... I like Ward but he does seem inconsistent. At times he steals games and covers up our horrid defense, others he let's in soft goals at bad times. Overall I would say I am willing to roll with Ward again next season. Peters seems like a good guy but he does not belong in the NHL at this time. Ellis seems like a competitor and he was very good earlier in the season. This is a tough one but I think I would rather get a more proven commodity as a backup to Ward.

Edited by Kyrule

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I'd keep Cam Ward, Justin Faulk and Alex Semin, and trade every single remaining player that I can get equal or better value for.

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Who ever is coaching the power play needs to go! Regardless of our record and injuries to Cam, there are too many good players for the PP to be this bad.

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Must go (non-players):

JR, Kirk Muller, and all of his staff. This kind of collapse is unacceptable in professional sports. The way the team is losing and the response to those losses is again, unacceptable. It is clear the right players/personnel have not been brought in over the years. Other teams deal with injuries and don't collapse to the point of being the laughing-stock of the league. Now throw in the fact that our special teams are, and have been, a joke and I think it signals the time for major changes starting at the top and trickling down. The team looks absolutely lost with no confidence, no structure, no heart, and no plan. This cannot go unaddressed (meaning major changes need to be made). What if we face injuries and adversity again next year? This has been such a disaster that the effects may linger or the team may say "not this again." We need fresh blood and a fresh start to wipe the slate clean.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Must go (defense):

Corvo, McBain, Pitkanen, Bergeron, and Sanguinetti.

Keep (defense):

Faulk and Bellemore.

Unsure (defense):

Gleason (needs to play like the Gleason of old) and Harrison (just not sure he can be consistent, but he does seem like a good value, or is that an illusion? Does his size make him more attractive than he deserves?).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Must go (forwards):

Brent, Larose, Westgarth, and Bowman.

Keep (forwards):

Semin, Tlusty, Staals, Skinner, and Ruutu (unless he continues to get injured, and he needs to produce to justify his salary. All of these keepers need to produce, I just have the most concern about Ruutu's ability to do so).

Unsure (forwards):

Nash (still not convinced he is the answer, still not convinced he isn't), Dalpe (has looked better since last recall), Dwyer (he is OK but players have to be moved out to make room for more physical players with heart/leadership).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't want to touch the goalie situation but if I had to... I like Ward but he does seem inconsistent. At times he steals games and covers up our horrid defense, others he let's in soft goals at bad times. Overall I would say I am willing to roll with Ward again next season. Peters seems like a good guy but he does not belong in the NHL at this time. Ellis seems like a competitor and he was very good earlier in the season. This is a tough one but I think I would rather get a more proven commodity as a backup to Ward.

I basically agree with everything you said except Dwyer and Skinner, sort of. Dwyer is not a top 6 guy but I would definitely keep him for his speed, PK, and heart.  I'd keep Skinner unless we could use him to get another top wing like Bobby Ryan, etc.

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Offense: unload salary and hangers on, but mostly fine tune.

Defense: OVERHAUL.

 

Keep Faulk and Gleason, sure Bellemore, but as the new Harrison. 

 

Pits: strong player, but just too inconsistent and unconventional. Plus with Murphy in the wings, don't need him. 

McBain: Must go. I don't care about his inflated plus minus he is basically Kaberle in his own end. 

Corvo: past his prime. Never great. Must go. Need his salary. 

Harrison: Jay is a tough one. He is a decent bargain, but has lost something this year. Keeping him in the 5-6 pairing maybe.

 

Through trade/FA gain 2 NHL caliber upper top 4 physical shut down types. 

Draft in the top 3 get a ready to play future star dman. 

Bring in Murphy. (Yes this one will be a bit controversial, but unlike Pits, Murphy will bring serious points on the scoresheet with his offensive forays, to offset his learn-on-the-job defense. 

 

Sure we can tweak our forward lines, but this is the offseason to overhaul the defense. Put a solid defense in front of Cam and behind our current forwards and it will work.

Edited by remkin

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I think it's time for JR to go!  He has been around for along time and personally, I think we need to shake the office up first...JUST SAYING!

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Looking a bit at the upcoming draft, it looks pretty likely that Seth Jones will be the #1 pick. This is the can't miss guy that all mock drafters have as the next Chara, Pronger, shut down guy, NHL ready.  We are 5 points out of that. 

 

I'm not going to say anything more. But that guy would be a game changer.

 

After him most mock drafts have forwards going in the next 4-9 slots. No mock draft has another dman higher than #5 pick. So if we pick #2 or #3 could get tricky as far as getting a dman. 

 

The other guy that looks pretty solid is Darnell Nurse. 6'5" two way guy that can hit. In an odd way, if we don't get the #1 pick, we'd almost be better to slide to around 5 or 6. 

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When you reach a point like this everything and everyone is under review. I'm not calling for blowing up the team, changing management, changing coaches and trading stars. I'm just saying everything and everyone is under review.

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When you reach a point like this everything and everyone is under review. I'm not calling for blowing up the team, changing management, changing coaches and trading stars. I'm just saying everything and everyone is under review.

At this stage, all i want is someone to come out and say that this crap is no longer acceptable and that changes will be made...then start making the changes...

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When you reach a point like this everything and everyone is under review. I'm not calling for blowing up the team, changing management, changing coaches and trading stars. I'm just saying everything and everyone is under review.

 

And I understand what you are saying.  BUT, 8 times out of 10 (personal guess), in any corporate world, the highest person stays.  In this case, JR is the man making the decisions and will more than likely stay and some of the players will be the ones to go.

 

When changing of the players does not help, you have to move up the chain.  We have changed players and coaches over the last 6 years and still we struggle.  So, IMHO, it's time to take it a step higher and see what happens.  I hear he can be a controlling person and he wants things a certain way. (Don't know personally), but let the coaches coach and the players play.  If we need to change a Captain, then let the coach do it.

 

Whatever it is, it's time for someone to step up and be responsible!

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I think it's time for JR to go!  He has been around for along time and personally, I think we need to shake the office up first...JUST SAYING!

And replace him with who? More then likely it would be Francis and I am not too sure he is ready for that yet or even wants it. If you know an unemployed GM that would actually be better I would like to know. I am not saying JR is blameless mind you, I just don't see the alternatives being any better for this market. 

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And replace him with who? More then likely it would be Francis and I am not too sure he is ready for that yet or even wants it. If you know an unemployed GM that would actually be better I would like to know. I am not saying JR is blameless mind you, I just don't see the alternatives being any better for this market. 

It doesn't have to be an "unemployed GM." I'm sure there are numerous potential candidates, and I'm guessing you are not expecting people to name potential GM candidates throughout the league. Now you could say throughout the world, look at what Colombus did, they brought in a GM from Finland. I'm sure nobody here would have named him if asked for potential GM's. It is ownerships' responsibility to find a suitable replacement.

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It doesn't have to be an "unemployed GM." I'm sure there are numerous potential candidates, and I'm guessing you are not expecting people to name potential GM candidates throughout the league. Now you could say throughout the world, look at what Colombus did, they brought in a GM from Finland. I'm sure nobody here would have named him if asked for potential GM's. It is ownerships' responsibility to find a suitable replacement.

Your right about that, it could come from outside the league, I didn't think about that. Though I would be highly surprised if JR got canned they would do something that bold. They hire up and from within usually.

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On D, I'd keep Harrison because he's cheap and does a solid job, and Faulk for obvious reasons. Beyond that, there's not much I'd care to keep. The blueline needs a complete overhaul. The Canes need a large and tough 4th line, that can still play more than 2 shifts a night. Muller is adamant about keeping shifts short, but doesn't have a 4th line that can eat up some minutes. 

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Put me down with keeping Faulk and Harrison.  Beyond  that, I'm on board with a complete defensive overhaul.  Gleason could be tricky though since his NTC goes through next season.

 

On offense, Staals, Tlusty, Semin, Skinner and Dwyer. Ruutu has a NMC.  None of Dalpe, Bowman, or Nash has separated himself from the pack, IMO, but you can't keep all of them.

 

Ward.  I have no idea who may be available to replace Ellis\Peters.

 

Behind the bench, I would move Maclean at the very least.  Someone needs to be "accountable" Kirk

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Bold -Keep, Line through - Get rid of

I'll give explanations to the non obvious ones

 

Forwards

Semin

Eric

Tlusty

Skinner

Jordan

Ruutu (I'm giving Ruutu one more shot because he is one of our only physical forwards but if he starts slow next year, he should be moved because 5M is too much for a 30 pt guy.)

Larose (Mistake signing 2 years ago, Eric got him 30 pts but he is a 4th liner at best, we have plenty of cheaper, bigger 4th liners)

Brent (Good last year, Bad this year. I know he was hurt but Nash has outplayed him making him expendable)

Dwyer (Super cheap, good on penalty kill, career year when looking at points per game)

Bowman (We have enough undersized forwards who can't score. He's 24 and has regressed. Time to cut bait, might be hard since he is signed)

Nash (Might be one of our lone bright spots this year, could be forced into 3rd line center spot, would be better as 4th line center)

Westgarth (I'm normally not a fan of enforcers but Westgarth has won most of his fights this year and you always need that kind of guy against certain teams aka Toronto, Boston, etc. He's cheap and will be a healthy scratch half of the time)

Dalpe (Give him Bowman's spot next year, see what he's got)

 

We need to sign a 3rd line center (Why did we have to get Jordan a year early and give up Sutter?) But I think our offense is fine, we have a great 1st line. I expect improvement from Jordan and Skinner next year with a healthy Ruutu and Nash would make a great 4th line center. Its too bad Jokinen couldn't get his act together this year.

 

Defense - Area in need of most improvement

Faulk

Gleason (Hasn't been horrible, still a -2 and tough. Is he worth 4.5M? Probably more like 3-3.5 but oh well. Best comparison is a Brooks Orpik, Eric Brewer type)

Harrison (Tough call here, he's a bottom pair defensemen. 20 some pts...-8 to -10 player, but at 1.5M for the next 3 years he is really cheap so I keep him)

Pitkanen (Another tough call. Our best offensive defensemen but the guy is made of glass. 2 years in a row he has played 30 games or less. His minutes would be hard to replace but we have lost the finnish connection with jokinen gone so I see reduced production from him. We need a healthier offensive defensemen.)

Corvo (Too old, too slow. I doubt he gets a contract next year with any team)

McBain (Offensive defensemen with no offense. Makes bonehead plays every game and is regressing rather than improving. Try to trade but is signed for next year so I could JR keeping him for 1 last try. Especially if he trades Pitkanen)

Sanguinetti (Should be in the AHL, sign him to a minor league contract and stick him there)

MAB (Worthless pickup. Brought in to help a powerplay that is clearly bad because of coaching, not talent.)

 

I honestly don't know what JR is going to do. Out of all those guys Pitkanen has the most talent but we can't rely on him. Mcbain has scored as many goals for the opposition as for us. And our cupboards are bare for young defensemen. If we don't get Seth Jones, we are screwed because every other defensemen is a reach.

 

Goaltenders

Ward (I'm still a believer in Ward, but we need to draft a goalie with our 2nd rd pick. Cam needs some pressure to perform because he came to camp out of shape)

Ellis (Typical that we can never sign a decent backup)

Peters (Organizational depth. Will never be NHL caliber but you need somebody to play in the AHL. Already signed.)

 

 

Honestly, if we can't get Seth Jones, we need to draft Mackinnon or Drouin. They look like elite guys and the next best defensemen is Nurse in 8-10 range. I personally like centers better and Mackinnon has the better size. But can't really go wrong here. If we get Drouin, Tlusty might have to be our 3rd center. We need to open the pocketbook for defensemen because JR has proven he doesn't know how to evaluate them. *cough *cough Seidenberg

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these forwards stay, E staal, skinner, j staal, semin, dwyer,ruutu, tlusty, bowman (young and signed and yes hes regressed but so has everyone hes playing with and he does some hitting), westgarth.(tough guy) nash (good and young).......  dalpe and whoever at ahl can fight for final spots after free agent signings.

.

on d... faulk, gleason, and harrison, clean house or put the rest in charlotte,

 

 

wardo, maybe if JR wants to save some money on a backup  he can come out of retirement!!

 

 

trade bait... mcbain , PITKANEN.  nobody else is worth anything...

 

 

and if we cant snag a top rated d man in the draft, i say draft a center and then trade j staal for a top d man. (will never happen though) having two staal sisters one one team is just a bad idea......dont even wanna think of three of them.........

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Number are going to play a huge part in this. Given the salary cap next year, most teams are not going to want to take on salary.

 

Forwards:

E Staal: 8.2 mil through '16;  not going anywhere

Semin: 7 mil through '18; not going anywhere

Tlusty: One more season at 1.7 million. All things considered, that's pretty cheap for a top line winger, but how much is he going to command if he has another season like this one next year? Price is going to be considerable...

Ruutu: 4.7 mil through '16; not going anywhere

J Staal: 6 mil until the end of freaking time; definitely not going anywhere

Larose: UFA. I love Larose, but that is way too much to pay for him. Trade him or let him walk.

Skinner: 5.7 mil also until the end of time; Not going anywhere

Nash: RFA...will be interesting to see if anyone extends an offer sheet to the kid. My guess is no, but tought to tell with the new CBA.

Tim Brent: UFA. Like his play when healthy, but ultimately expendable.

Westgarth: One more season at 725K. Not a lot of grit on this team, keep him unless he's needed as part of a deal.

Tim Wallace: UFA; Similar to Westgarth, but expendable.

Patrick Dwyer; 900K for two more seasons; probably not going anywhere. He had some flashes this season, but needs to be more consistent.

Bowman: one more year at 600K. Expendable if used in a trade.

Blanchard: One more year at 525K. Same as Bowman.

 

Defense:

Pitkanen: One more season at 4.5 mil; This is a big one. That expiring deal could be worth something to someone looking to clear salary by the end of next season. My guess is we start the season with Joni still on the team, but he'll be in trade rumors all season. I think the most important thing JR does in the near future is finding a way to move him and get that salary off the books to create some cap space.

Gleason: 4 mil through '16; not going anywhere.

Corvo: UFA; end of the line for Joe. Let him walk and clear his 2 mil off the books.

McBain: 1.8 mil for one more season. This is the second most important move for JR. Have to move Jamie and his 1.8 mil.

Bergeron: UFA. I liked MAB on the power play. We don't have a lot of that. If he stays for a modest increase, I wouldn't be too upset. That said, he's expendable.

Faulk: Last year at 900K. He's going to be expensive, but retaining Justin is a priority. End of story.

Harrison: 1.5 mil through '16. Again, not a lot of grit on this team, and he works well with the young players. I think Jay still has a ton of value relative to what he's paid. Keep him.

Sanguinetti: UFA; it seems there is a lot of faith in this kid. If he can be kept on a two-way deal for virtually no increase, keep him. If he wants a one-way at more than 1 mil, let him walk.

Wild Card: Ryan Murphy. The organization seems pretty big on this kid, so it would not surprise me at all to see him at the NHL level next season, although I think his NHL level salary is 1.3 mil.

 

Net

Ward: 6.3 mil through '16; not going anywhere.

Ellis: UFA; let him walk

Peters: one more season at 525K. I think at this point Justin has earned the back up slot. He's streaky, but the kid is a pro.

Edited by Deadbolt

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Nice analysis Deadbolt. I agree with the vast majority of it.

 

Some will depend on where/who we draft. If we get in the top 3 that guy will make the line up next year. If it is a winger, then all we need to add is some physicality up front.

 

Semin/E./Tlusty

Skinner/J./Drouin

Ruutu/Nash/_____

 

I simply refuse to believe that line up could not compete with anyone. And that includes J. who will improve on already decent numbers.

 

It's the back end that has to be rebuilt.

 

McBain and Corvo simply must be replaced.

 

I am less convinced fully, but I would move Pits also. He must have value, we've already started moving Finns.

I do think that Pits brings a lot, but he is just so unconventional with his deep forays into the zone that often don't produce. I would not dump his salary a la Jussi, but if we could get a decent return I'd move him.

 

I do expect Murphy to make the team, especially if he can bulk up even a little. He is the kind of guy who also likes to take the puck deep, but I can tell you already that he will produce points at a very high rate when he does it. But do we need two guys doing that? 

 

Gleason would be great if he were a second pairing guy. If we could get a first pair guy to join Faulk in the shutdown role and pair Gleason on the second pair..he is still a heart and soul guy and a decent dman. 

 

Harrison is also best if not pushed above his pay grade. Harrison as a 5-6 guy is fine. He has stepped back this year in my opinion, but I wonder if he is pushing a bit. He is a know your role guy. 

 

I'm not convinced Sanguinetti isn't the new McBain yet. He has looked better, but is he the answer? 

His offensive production is Gleasonesque and it just seems that we need a shut down physical type guy.

I'm just not sure how he fits in if Murphy makes the team.

 

But just replacing Corvo and McBain with solid NHL stay at home guys would make a huge difference. 

 

It looks really doubtful we are getting Seth Jones. For one thing there are up to 8 teams with a shot at it. 

 

So, sans Jones, how JR rebuilds this defense will determine how we do moving forward. 

Edited by remkin

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