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Rutherford hasn't done that bad a job with the draft. We have Skinner,Faulk,Murphy, Lindholm all playing. They just aren't quite there yet. That's a lot of young talent. You could make the case a little too much young talent.

 

I think our biggest problem is retention of players and over generous contracts. It leaves very little room to build secondary support players and depth.

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Rutherford hasn't done that bad a job with the draft. We have Skinner,Faulk,Murphy, Lindholm all playing. They just aren't quite there yet. That's a lot of young talent. You could make the case a little too much young talent.

 

I think our biggest problem is retention of players and over generous contracts. It leaves very little room to build secondary support players and depth.

Except for Faulk the others are gimme's at the low pick number we've had.  Nothing else has materialized and the hopefuls have all been disappointments recently.  Book is out on Murphy and those in Charlotte have the same promise as Boychuk, Dalpe,, etc. so I'm not buying.

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JR has done okay with selecting the low hanging fruit in the draft, but other than that, not so much.  Drafting and developing is the way to build long term success.  Look at last year's champions, the Chicago Blackhawks.  On the 23 man roster for the finals, they had 13 players that they drafted or acquired as an undrafted free agent.  Yeah, a couple of those were of the low hanging fruit variety (Kane and Toews) but there are a lot of contributors that aren't close to top of the draft status.

 

 

The Canes have currently have 7 1/2 (one is Justin Peters and JR doesn't know what to do with him) that they drafted.  Other than Bellemore and Bowman, they are mostly 1st or high 2nd rounders. 

 

Here's the main problem.

Edited by super_dave_1

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I can't argue with this about draft. Its just as disappointing to me. Perhaps player development is the bigger problem I just don't know.

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Draft picks are worthless without the means to develop such players into contributing members of the team. At this level I'm not sure this coach is the guy to do that or not.  My feeling is no.  I have lost faith in Charlotte.  Players coming through our system aren't forcing the Canes to call them up because they are just way too good for the AHL.

 

Take the Red Wings, who many see as the model for drafting and development of players.  They seldom if ever bring rookies straight from the draft into their lineup.  It's their organizational philosophy.  Why?  They don't have to.  They develop them first in their farm system.

 

And look at our scouting staff, it's the smallest staff in the league.

 

It's all tied together.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I'm really not disagreeing with any of you. It is all tied together and we haven't done a very good job. I was surprised Muller got a ticket back from the coast. Now that he has I'm just saying there isn't any rush. We as an organization need to figure out where we are going. If its stick with our core and continue to build around them we better get better at it. If it is to stay with this coach we better go get players that can play his system because this group can't. etc.etc.etc.

 

What I'm saying is if you change management, coaches, core players, development system all at once you are looking at years to rebuild. YEARS.

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I would not mind blowing this organization up, and suffering through several lean seasons if that is what it takes to build a strong foundation for the future. I think the fan base would accept this if it was evident that the team was making progress and improvement every year. I don't think it is impossible to get this team to the point where it is unusual to not make the playoffs. This core of players and management is not getting it done. It might be time to start over, build through the draft( Chicago and the Pens}, and build a strong foundation of excellence.

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Boychuk too good?  :yawn:

 

I gotta chuckle out of this I must say.

 

I could list a zillion names that fit the same mold.

 

Keith Aucoin anyone?  former AHL ALL-Star?  Boychuk will not be an NHL player because his skills are too limited in this mans league.  I wish him well and do honestly hope he proves all the others wrong, but lets not forget people that can read an AHL stat sheet need to keep in mind these two leagues are different.

 

To put it more simply:

 

How many NHL games past his current 94 should Boychuk play to prove he's worth a top 9 slot?  Can't hit, cant dig a puck from a corner, nothing special defensively, and isn't a true sniper.  What position would he play goalie? 

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Reading the tea leaves, allowing Muller to finish this train wreck of a season makes me wonder if JR has decided to step aside. If we are getting a new GM, we certainly want him to choose his own personnel, including coaches in Charlotte. Season ticket renewal is sitting in my in-box. I wish I knew for sure what the coaching decision is going to be, because I have lost all faith in Muller and would be inclined to pass on next year if he is the coach. I'm not as passionate about JR leaving, but really would welcome a top to bottom house-cleaning. Look at Colorodo. 30th last year, and with a new GM, coach and a top prospect plus a tweak or 2 in personnel, they are solidly in the playoffs. Why can't that be us next year?

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Now that I have my feeble what if and calculating discussion (mostly with myself) out of the way I agree something has to happen and soon. We no longer can take a band-aide approach. A major overhaul of both organization and team is needed. Everywhere you look we have problems or holes to be filled.

 

Honestly the only player I see ready to move up from Charlotte is Sutter in a fourth line role.  We need a power forward, we need third line help, we need a tougher 4th line, we need at least one maybe two quality D-men and we need to make a goalie trade.

 

Who has the check book?

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There is no doubt that it will take years to rebuild if we go that direction, but at least that would be something to build on and look forward to.  We have endured the current mess for years and at this point, there is no light at the end of the tunnel.  If anything, we continue to get more "upside down if you will" due to larger contracts having to be offered because we have nobody able to step up from Charlotte.  Our current inflated contracts have put us in a tough spot.  IMO, the guys in Charlotte have not been developed enough that they can step up and challenge for jobs, JR is left with no other option but to pay the high, stupid contracts to keep somewhat good players around.  Now, I am not siding with JR, he is the reason we don't have enough talent in Charlotte.  He hired the coaches and the scouts, and acquired the players.  I think that everyone and all players should be on the table, and the fuse should be lit on the explosives at this point.

 

This is my rant and I maybe totally off base....but I have spent enough money on this crappy team in the last many years to have that right.  Don't beat me up too bad because obviously I am not in the hockey business, just highly P.O.'ed right now. 

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Who has the check book?

 

That is the element that seems to get missed in much of the discussion.

Everything takes money, and this is, and has been, a small market team with a small budget. Spending to the cap for a year or two does not suddenly negate years of being a budget team, with cost-saving measures like having a small scouting staff, and being unable to retain key veterans over the years.

It is unfortunate that none of the band-aids worked, because if it is now time for a real re-build, it is at a bad time in the scheme of things. The way the CBA is structured, the early years are when the small market teams are working with the most level playing field. "Wasting" those years, and trying to build to having a competitive team when the playing field is more skewed towards the bigger market teams isn't the best way to go, though at this point it may be the only way to go.

I suspect that was one of the reasons the organization took the big steps it did (Jordan and Semin) - to take advantage af the early years of the new CBA.It is just a shame that it didn't work out. It leaves the organization in a very difficult situation.

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I don't think it will take a scorched earth policy to rebuild this team. There are some really good pieces to build around and some assets that could be moved. I do think it is going to take a new set of eyes to do it. It doesn't have to be 5 more years of misery.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Contracts, Coaches, GM, Development system and the list goes on... yet the largest wide open hole in this team is that it Can Not score the puck with any consistency..How? Why? isn't there a coach out there who can see where its broke???  All of these guys are not bad players and if we think so, just trade one and watch him goooooo

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I don't have a fair comparison, but the number of Canes players who have been allowed to leave or have been dealt and have gone on to have impressive production years beyond what they returned is fairly impressive. Seidenberg, Cullen, J. Wiliams, Whitney, Jussi, ?Ruutu?.....

 

I also agree that it will not take a blow up. imagine if Cam can return to decent form and be traded for a substantial upgrade in the top 6.  Imagine if we get another high draft pick.  Imagine Murphy and Lindholm and Skinner all rounding into form and maybe McGinn.

 

Maybe one other key move.

 

Add a new set of leaders in the front office/bench.

 

It could happen.

 

Then again, what do I know?  I felt we had the horses this year.

Edited by remkin

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As Super_Dave and Rem mention the Canes have some good individuals. So in my humble opinion, they need a coaching staff/mgmt team that can make them a team ... for more than a few games at a time. Easy for me to say. Wish I knew how to do it. Maybe that means losing some good individuals that are bad team guys on the ice. Perhaps PK can talk Hitchcock, Quennville or Babcock to come here to serve as combined GM & coach. HAH!

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I guess it was because E was sick today, the 2d line was Loktionov centering Lindholm and Skinner...I say we roll with that and let J center E and Semin the rest of the way. Nash and Tlusty on the 3rd and Manny back to the 4th.

The reports say Loktionov is a good 2 way player...give him a look.

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Reading the tea leaves, allowing Muller to finish this train wreck of a season makes me wonder if JR has decided to step aside. If we are getting a new GM, we certainly want him to choose his own personnel, including coaches in Charlotte. Season ticket renewal is sitting in my in-box. I wish I knew for sure what the coaching decision is going to be, because I have lost all faith in Muller and would be inclined to pass on next year if he is the coach. I'm not as passionate about JR leaving, but really would welcome a top to bottom house-cleaning. Look at Colorodo. 30th last year, and with a new GM, coach and a top prospect plus a tweak or 2 in personnel, they are solidly in the playoffs. Why can't that be us next year?

I think this is exactly it.....they are going to get a new GM and it will be his responsibility to hire his coaching staff, his scouts, and his minor league coaches.  If they were to fire Muller and bring someone in it would be JR guy right now.  That doesn't make sense.  If PK doesn't do the above then I will be very confused.  How can an owner accept not getting  playoff cash year after year after year.....

 

By the way, finishing at the bottom next year gives us a good chance on McDavid.  Not that I am gunning for another losing season but have to find some positives no?

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I think this is exactly it.....they are going to get a new GM and it will be his responsibility to hire his coaching staff, his scouts, and his minor league coaches.  If they were to fire Muller and bring someone in it would be JR guy right now.  That doesn't make sense.  If PK doesn't do the above then I will be very confused.  How can an owner accept not getting  playoff cash year after year after year.....

 

By the way, finishing at the bottom next year gives us a good chance on McDavid.  Not that I am gunning for another losing season but have to find some positives no?

 

Next year would not be the worst year to be really bad.  McDavid is rediculous!

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That is the element that seems to get missed in much of the discussion.

Everything takes money, and this is, and has been, a small market team with a small budget. Spending to the cap for a year or two does not suddenly negate years of being a budget team, with cost-saving measures like having a small scouting staff, and being unable to retain key veterans over the years.

It is unfortunate that none of the band-aids worked, because if it is now time for a real re-build, it is at a bad time in the scheme of things. The way the CBA is structured, the early years are when the small market teams are working with the most level playing field. "Wasting" those years, and trying to build to having a competitive team when the playing field is more skewed towards the bigger market teams isn't the best way to go, though at this point it may be the only way to go.

I suspect that was one of the reasons the organization took the big steps it did (Jordan and Semin) - to take advantage af the early years of the new CBA.It is just a shame that it didn't work out. It leaves the organization in a very difficult situation.

Invisible, your 1st thoughts pertaining to "scouting staffs" has been my thought for a very long time. I mean think about it, if we have 1 of, if not the smallest scouting staffs, AND continually limit our player expenditure, how does one (JR) stay competitive? The concept simply defies my understanding, unless you (PK) honestly are either unconcerned with the product or secretly are Attempting To Lose Money for a large tax write off!!

 

I have no qualms with holding down expenses, by curtailing the salary ceiling, but to be competitive, seems you have to be diligent  on the opposite end, as in scouring the planet for youth. Curtailing the scout staff would seem to put one at a decided disadvantage to find good, young, cheap players.

 

One additional aspect of this, I would imagine that the average salary of a "scout" is much cheaper than a player? It would be an interesting exercise to do a cost analysis specifically looking at what a 1st class scouting staff saves a franchise with their "gems in the rough" so to speak.

 

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I would think a small scouting staff would force them to really focus on the top 2 rounds. 

 

After that, I wonder how many players they could really watch for much time. 

 

 

I would love to see an analysis of our drafting based on second round, and 3rd-below as a group.

 

The numbers I have generally seen suggest that using a >200 NHL games career:

 

1st rounders: 50-50 

Second round: 1/4

3rd-below combined: 1/8

 

Source:

How Many NHL Draft Picks Make it to the NHL?

 

Of course first rounders, and to a lesser extent second rounders success depends on draft order. 

 

If this is true, it suggests that only 12% of all picks below the second round every have what one could even loosely call an NHL career.

 

Sure there are the mind blowing exceptions that especially Detroit has pulled off, but for the most part guys drafted below the second round are there to form a league for the few that make the NHL to play with.

 

Those numbers suggest that an average NHL team should produce a 200 game player every 4th year from the second round, and every 8 years from all the rounds below that. 

 

We have certainly done that (especially if one assumes that Faulk will easily hit 200 games):

 

Faulk: Second round 165 games and counting

McBain: Second round: 258 games and became Sekera

Bowman: Third round: 165 games and counting

Bellemore: Sixth round: 55 games and counting

Brian Doumalin: 6 games, but upside

Zac Dalpe: 89 games and counting

 

But what of late rounder trades?

 

Dwyer, Harrison, both brought through the system though other people's late round picks.

 

Personally I think Faulk and McBain to Sekera, gives us 8 years of second round success. 

 

And I'm way way ahead of myself, but I really think Brock McGinn gets there too.

 

 

Now I will concede that the grouping of Boychuk, Dalpe and Bowman. Which were our top traditional through the system prospects have all under delivered expectations. (Though, ironically 2/3 are playing in the NHL and the other is burning up the AHL). 

 

Also, I am comparing us to average, not the best. 

 

I guess the key is that we want to be in the upper echelon, and while I don't have the data, one assumes that those teams, with much larger scouting staffs are better at finding low round talent. But then again, I don't have the time to find that data.

 

I found a ranking of a decade of drafts according to bleacher report. Interestingly it was done in Spring 2010:

 

In order:

 

LA Kings

Washington Capitals

Pittsburgh

Chicago

Atlanta/ Winnipeg

Edmonton

Colorado

Nashville

St Louis

MTL

 

First, a lot of those teams had long runs of very high picks, second, a few of them have not really faired that well anyway.

 

 

I'm not saying we couldn't use a few more scouts. Just that w/ what we've had, it hasn't been terrible recently.

 

We'll have to see how Linholm and Murphy turn out, but really our first round success has been decent lately also.

Edited by remkin

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