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remkin

Why this year's Hurricanes will Rock Like a....Well a Hurricane

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Rem, analysis of the Canes is only part of the picture.

 

If you feel strongly the Canes will make the playoffs, then which of the following team(s) will not?  

 

To start, lets assume the Montreal Canadiens DO NOT make it (I'd put that at 50-50)...  but even with that favorable outcome...

that still leaves...

 

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Detroit Red Wings

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators

Philadelphia Flyers

Washington Capitals

New York Rangers

 

 

So, who does NOT make it from this list?

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Rem, analysis of the Canes is only part of the picture.
 
If you feel strongly the Canes will make the playoffs, then which of the following team(s) will not?  
 
To start, lets assume the Montreal Canadiens DO NOT make it (I'd put that at 50-50)...  but even with that favorable outcome...
that still leaves...
 
Boston Bruins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Detroit Red Wings
Toronto Maple Leafs
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals
New York Rangers
 
 
So, who does NOT make it from this list?

Rangers, new coach, new system, so far they are 1-4 in the preseason, only 8 goals for, 18 against.

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Rem, analysis of the Canes is only part of the picture.
 
If you feel strongly the Canes will make the playoffs, then which of the following team(s) will not?  
 
To start, lets assume the Montreal Canadiens DO NOT make it (I'd put that at 50-50)...  but even with that favorable outcome...
that still leaves...
 
Boston Bruins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Detroit Red Wings
Toronto Maple Leafs
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals
New York Rangers
 
 
So, who does NOT make it from this list?

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Rem, analysis of the Canes is only part of the picture.

If you feel strongly the Canes will make the playoffs, then which of the following team(s) will not?

To start, lets assume the Montreal Canadiens DO NOT make it (I'd put that at 50-50)... but even with that favorable outcome...

that still leaves...

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Detroit Red Wings

Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa Senators

Philadelphia Flyers

Washington Capitals

New York Rangers

So, who does NOT make it from this list?

I would pencil in Detroit, Pittsburgh, and probably Philly, but it's a crap shoot after that. Besides 2 seasons ago, New York is always a team that squeaks by. Toronto has made the playoffs once in 10yrs. Ottawa is always a borderline team. The capitals struggled hard last year and in continuous fashion, let there 2nd leading point producer leave for nothing, that teams running on fumes. The hurricanes have a lot to prove, but so do 90% of the other teams.

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Rem, analysis of the Canes is only part of the picture.
 
If you feel strongly the Canes will make the playoffs, then which of the following team(s) will not?  
 
To start, lets assume the Montreal Canadiens DO NOT make it (I'd put that at 50-50)...  but even with that favorable outcome...
that still leaves...
 
Boston Bruins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Detroit Red Wings
Toronto Maple Leafs
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals
New York Rangers
 
 
So, who does NOT make it from this list?

Leafs, Flyers, Capitals

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I'm not so sure I would quickly discard the Crapitals.  

 

Look, I'm certainly not a Wash fan, but that team has made the playoffs 6-years in a row now and had two #1 seeds in the Eastern Conf!!  That's no fluke.  

I have noticed, for some reason, overall, on average, this board tends to underestimate Washington.

Now, if the Flyers, Washington Capitals and New York Rangers all fail to make the playoffs, I 100% agree, the Canes chances will be excellent. 

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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It's hard (crazy) enough to try to predict what one team will do let alone 16.

 

One of them won't make it while we do. It is about our strength more than their weakness.

 

One could go one on one and ask are we going to be better than X? Are we going to be better than Y? How does Washington make up for losing Ribiero, their #2 scorer, or NYR losing Gaborik? etc. But then I'm into the same problem that I accuse the National Media types of...not really knowing the other teams well enough.

 

I follow this team from year to year, and I'll tell you this. On paper, if healhy, this is the best team we've had since 06, including the team that went to the ECF in 2009. That should be good enough to make the playoffs. A lot of people asked the same question in 06 and 09, who would we beat out of all those same teams that always seem to be good.

Edited by remkin

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I'm not so sure I would quickly discard the Crapitals.  

 

Look, I'm certainly not a Wash fan, but that team has made the playoffs 6-years in a row now and had two #1 seeds in the Eastern Conf!!  That's no fluke.  

I have noticed, for some reason, overall, on average, this board tends to underestimate Washington.

Now, if the Flyers, Washington Capitals and New York Rangers all fail to make the playoffs, I 100% agree, the Canes chances will be excellent. 

 

I think its not just this board but league wide that people tend to underestimate the Caps.  While they can boast having one of the most talented and gifted players in the NHL, the team lives and dies by him.  When AO is on his game the Caps can look unstoppable but when  AO is in a slump or plays with an attitude that doesn't exude any type of leadership, they falter.  Combine that with the fact that they have nothing to show for all those years they've made the playoffs and the fact that most of their playoff losses were either bad collapses or failure to show up and you can explain why most people underestimate them.

 

I think they're one of those teams that could easily go either way during the season but it'll all come down to their Captain. What I find unusual about them is they perform so well in the regular season but can't seem to ever play at that level or take it up to the next level in the post season.  I'm not sure there is another team out there like that.  Maybe some of you NHL history buffs can fill me in if there was one.

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I think its not just this board but league wide that people tend to underestimate the Caps.  While they can boast having one of the most talented and gifted players in the NHL, the team lives and dies by him.  When AO is on his game the Caps can look unstoppable but when  AO is in a slump or plays with an attitude that doesn't exude any type of leadership, they falter.  Combine that with the fact that they have nothing to show for all those years they've made the playoffs and the fact that most of their playoff losses were either bad collapses or failure to show up and you can explain why most people underestimate them.

 

I think they're one of those teams that could easily go either way during the season but it'll all come down to their Captain. What I find unusual about them is they perform so well in the regular season but can't seem to ever play at that level or take it up to the next level in the post season.  I'm not sure there is another team out there like that.  Maybe some of you NHL history buffs can fill me in if there was one.

 

This is pretty much right on. Ovi is the heartbeat of their team. I think a lot of people write them off too because of their playoff troubles. They might make the playoffs, but they never do anything with it. 

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I think its not just this board but league wide that people tend to underestimate the Caps.  While they can boast having one of the most talented and gifted players in the NHL, the team lives and dies by him.  When AO is on his game the Caps can look unstoppable but when  AO is in a slump or plays with an attitude that doesn't exude any type of leadership, they falter.  Combine that with the fact that they have nothing to show for all those years they've made the playoffs and the fact that most of their playoff losses were either bad collapses or failure to show up and you can explain why most people underestimate them.

 

I think they're one of those teams that could easily go either way during the season but it'll all come down to their Captain. What I find unusual about them is they perform so well in the regular season but can't seem to ever play at that level or take it up to the next level in the post season.  I'm not sure there is another team out there like that.  Maybe some of you NHL history buffs can fill me in if there was one.

They always end up against the rangers and their superior goal-tending. Caps do not match up well against the rangers (in the past anyways).

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They always end up against the rangers and their superior goal-tending. Caps do not match up well against the rangers (in the past anyways).

 

And ironically, the Rangers superior goal tending hasn't gotten them anywhere either.

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I would pencil in Detroit, Pittsburgh, and probably Philly, but it's a crap shoot after that. ....The hurricanes have a lot to prove, but so do 90% of the other teams.

We may love to boo them, but lets face it PK...    the Boston Bruins need to be penciled in too!  

I just can't put the Bruins in with the rest of the teams and consider them a "crap shoot" to make the playoffs.

IMO, the odds of the B's making the playoffs are about 6-to-1 (86% chance they make it).

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Some math, some observations and a question...


So based on the feedback here so far, it seems reasonable to assume the:  Boston Bruins, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings and perhaps the NYR will make the playoffs.
 
 
Also, its perhaps fair to say the two worst teams in the East (Buffalo and Florida) will likely NOT make the playoffs.
 
 
So, that leaves 10 teams fighting for 4 slots to get in!
 
In this pool, we have the Canes and some decent teams like: the Flyers, Capitals, Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators, the Habs, etc...
 
So, if its a crap shoot among these 10, that gives the Canes a 4-in-10 (40%) Chance of Making the Playoffs.
 
Upshot? "Rock Like a Hurricane" may be equal to saying... the Canes have a 40% chance of making it.
 
Naturally, if we make it, its going to be a ton of FUN! 
 
As always, I will run the more rigorous Monte Carlo simulation software at various points during the season to see what our actual odds are given the standings and a number of other factors.

 
Question: at this point, does a 40% chance of making it to the playoffs sound about right?

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Greg, Greg, Greg...

 

Again, my analysis is just how good I think this team will be, not the others. Of course the other teams do have a role in this whole thing, it's just too hard predict 16 teams.

 

But, if I wander into your angle on this...I would take issue with two assumptions you are making.

 

1. Detroit and the NYR are not locks. Detroit had 56 points and made the playoffs by one point last year. NYR also had 56 points. Now I'll give you that they were both plus teams and will be contenders, but they are not locks. While suprises do happen, if there are any locks it would be Pittsburgh followed by Boston. I would be shocked if either of them missed.

 

2. That the remaing teams are all equal except the bottom 2. In fact NJ is depleted, Columbus is Columbus, Florida has to prove it, and I'm not sure the NYI are for real, but our team is better in my opinion. Philly could have serious issues also. Washington is prone to inconsistency, etc. etc. etc. But there are easily 5 teams under us: Columbus, Florida, Buffalo, NYI, and NJ. Some team expected to be good ususally falls too, maybe Philly.

 

Still, if 2 teams are head and shoulders better and 5 teams worse and we shoot it out with the others our chances go to 67%.

 

Now I think if we stay healhy we can be better than MTL, Phily, Tampa and yes, Detroit and also NYR.

 

But this is all speculation and much harder to predict than that we have a playoff roster.

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Ok, so... 

 

My top-line analysis shows the Canes have a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

Rem's analysis suggests the number is 67%.   

Taking the avg of those two gets us to 53%.


Any other estimates?

What do you guys think the odds of the Canes making the playoffs are right at this moment?

 

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Going into the season every team has a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs. I'll get back to you after the 1st game.

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Going into the season every team has a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs. I'll get back to you after the 1st game.

 

Well every team in the West has a 57% chance. The buggers. Just not fair :kleenex:  :crybaby: .

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Well every team in the West has a 57% chance. The buggers. Just not fair :kleenex:  :crybaby: .

 

This is still driving me crazy, anyone else?

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Ok, so... 

 

My top-line analysis shows the Canes have a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

Rem's analysis suggests the number is 67%.   

Taking the avg of those two gets us to 53%.

Any other estimates?

What do you guys think the odds of the Canes making the playoffs are right at this moment?

I'll take 53%.

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Well every team in the West has a 57% chance. The buggers. Just not fair :kleenex:  :crybaby: .

Point taken and it does drive me nuts.

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2. That the remaing teams are all equal except the bottom 2. In fact NJ is depleted, Columbus is Columbus, Florida has to prove it, and I'm not sure the NYI are for real, but our team is better in my opinion. Philly could have serious issues also. Washington is prone to inconsistency, etc. etc. etc. But there are easily 5 teams under us: Columbus, Florida, Buffalo, NYI, and NJ. Some team expected to be good ususally falls too, maybe Philly.

 

Columbus has a better team than us imo.

 

Why do you think were above Columbus?

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Columbus has a better team than us imo.

 

Why do you think were above Columbus?

They have more anemic scoring than we've had.  Also, Can Bob and Mason keep it up over 82 games?

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Ya, I wonder about Columbus' high end scoring. Personally I have no problem with this thread comparing us to other teams, but that isn't what I intended. I can't pretend to microanalyze other team's predicted season this year. Others feel free to have at it. I just think that have the parts to be an above average team, which means playoffs. Not necessarily a Stanley cup.

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