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remkin

Why this year's Hurricanes will Rock Like a....Well a Hurricane

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After all that's transpired (or not transpired), I consider the Canes to be, at best, a bubble playoff team.  But, with our depth (or lack thereof), and the injuries that we have already sustained, I think it's going to be a tough climb to reach the playoff plateau.  There's reason for optimism, but there's also plenty of reason for doubt.  What else is new?

 

Edit:  And if we miss yet again, I will finally acknowledge the fact we likely need an overhaul of the front office.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I'm remaining largely silent because I don't want to pee in people's cheerios first of all and second of all I haven't seen the final product on the ice, but I have a really bad feeling about our D. They've changed names, but I am very skeptical as to whether the D is improved at all. You would think 5-6 defensive D-men = wins but there's other facets to the defense that are currently resting in a rookie's hands to cover it all.

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You know I get the ambivalence and caution of Legend and Coastal and others. 

 

While we needed to rebuild the defense and have done it, it's not like we could pick up Suter and Chara and Weber. Since I originally wrote my original posts, we learned of the loss of Joni, which forced us to add Hainsey, further disrupting the defense. 

 

I have little doubt that Sekera/Komi was better than McBain/Corvo, but Hainsey for Joni is a much more difficult assessment. 

 

We are in a tougher division and have immediately been thrown into a conference where two more teams will not make the playoffs than the other conference which seems pretty unfair.

 

Despite all of that I'm still good with everything I wrote. The national media is falling to easy crutches and biases and missing the areas we will be vastly improved (defense, shots against, PK, scoring, and goalie: gotta admit that's really a lot of areas).

 

The one thing, the only thing, that has me concerned is injuries. My analysis counted on Ruutu and Semin in the line up, and frankly Gleason also. (And hoping for Morrow). We were also betting on a functional Lindholm, on which the jury is still out. Drouin has already been sent packing back to juniors.

 

I like Murphy, but he must be used as a specialist since his own zone defense is not there yet. If he is pressed into serious minutes it could be an issue unless he improves that aspect fast.

 

On the flip side though has been a very strong showing by Bellemore. This guy could really be critical to keeping us strong through defensive injuries. 

 

The defense needs to gel and prove itself as does Cam. This will be key. I am betting that they do, but that is far from certain. 

 

I am very confident in the offense, but only if our guns are there. No Semin and no Ruutu forces guys like Bowman to have to produce and not just skate around back checking. And they'll have to contribute to the PP also.

 

I still think that an improved Nash, a Gerbe, and hopefully Lindholm can create a third line. I still think that Skinner and J. will put up more points. 

 

Somehow it does seem like just about every team out there is either better or strong. I look through the first two months and ask where the easy game is. I am nervous about the injuries also.

 

I do not think everything has to break perfectly, but we cannot sustain major injuries either. The biggest thing will be Cam and the defense coming together. If that happens, we'll be right there.

 

But if we get Ruutu back and stay relatively healthy, there is a lot of improvement there on paper. I'm still going with the upside.

Edited by remkin

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Its hard to quantify the last handful of posts, but overall, it feels more like a 40% chance (of making playoffs) crowd; than a 67% one.

 

Well your the only one putting percentages on it (oh wait you got me to). 

 

But I'll tell you what happened. If you look through the first couple of pages there was a lot of agreement and optimism. Then the pre-season started and our split squad was defensively inept or disinterested, followed quickly by a rash of injuries to key players.

 

Then, as is want to happen around here, the sky actually started to fall and a negative mood swept in like a cold front.  Lots of apprehension and impending doom at the moment.

 

That's where we seem to be right now. Hey, there's been a lot of things not working out over the past few years, so I get it. But if this team stays at least average healthy, I stand by my analysis. Even if we lose a couple early.

Edited by remkin

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From everything I've read around places where people talk about hockey and mainly follow the Canes, I think the majority believe we could be a couple of spots either side of the playoff line, or a bubble team, if you prefer.

 

I also don't think it's unexpected that the majority I'm referring to above have some apprehension based on everything that's occurred.  Certainly seems justified to me. Some of that is based on how we stand with other teams in the new Division, some of that is all the ? left to be answered.  Some of it could be we've seen this show before.

 

But, that shouldn't suggest that this crowd are a doom and gloom jump off the cliff crowd. 

 

So, and again, just from what I've read, I think a lot of fans think we can make the playoffs, but a lot of things have to go in the positive direction to get there.

 

So with that said Rem, I don't think there's a lot of difference in your analysis and the opinion of the majority, it's just you've taken it a step further and actually believe that a lot of things WILL go in a positive direction.

 

Then there's the jump off the cliff crowd.....

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Yes, I do seem to be more optimistic than most. And I do get the apprehension. I get the general prediction that we are a bubble team. Then again since every team needs to show it on the ice, just about every team not named Pittsburgh and Boston is a bubble team. So yes, I am predicting that a lot of things will go right. But not perfect. This is not a team where everything needs to break just right.

 

We are actually very deep in scoring threats compared to most teams if we stay relatively healthy. While we may not be as talented on defense, we are better and deeper than last year. 

 

We will hopefully have Cam Ward rather than Justin Peters.

 

Expecting Jordan Staal to at least match his third line Pittsburgh numbers of two years in a row, is not really a massive reach.

 

Expecting Skinner if healthy to do better than 18 year old Skinner, in what is often a breakout year for young studs, or even just as good, is not really a reach.

 

Expecting Ruutu to be average Ruutu and better than no Ruutu (if healthy) is a pretty good bet.

 

Expecting that we don't have to field a defense of AHL'ers plus McBain and Corvo in front of Justin Peters, is not really a reach.

 

Expecting that Sekera and Komserek (or even Bellemore) will be better then McBain and Corvo....just doesn't feel like a wildly crazy prediction. 

 

Expecting that Gerbe, who has already looked good can match his easily excellent third line numbers from two running years is a bit more murky, but still a good possibility. 

 

Muller had 100 points over an 82 game stretch with a pretty average team, but now, with a better team he's going to be a bad coach? (I'm not saying anyone here said that, but I'm on a roll).

 

Lindholm arriving as an 18 year old, that is more of a stretch, though JR set us up thinking that was likely.

 

Nash producing well that's a feeling. He has not proven it.

 

But the other stuff is more likely than not.

 

Clearly I think the media and people who think we are going to finish at the bottom again are dead wrong. People who think we are a bubble team, well maybe, but most years just about everyone is until the bitter end.

 

A couple of years ago this team was in it till near the end of the season. The next year JR added Jordan Staal and Alex Semin and didn't really lose anything and.... got THAT much worse? Then this year they rebuild the defense on top of that, again not losing anyone good,  and get a better back up goalie and....get even worse? How does that make more sense than my opinion?

 

I think there was a lot of positivity on here (not in the media) about this team until Joni's injury situation came to light. Then the early preseason defensive lapses. Then the current injuries. Then all the national prognosticators start talking trash. And now things have gotten a bit duskier around here. Fine. I get it. But I don't agree.

 

But if we can stay fairly healthy....well you know what I think.

Edited by remkin

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Awesome posts Rem! I too am a "with my own two eyes"  type of guy and I couldn't agree with you more.  Thank you for clearly putting into words what many of us have been arguing in offices and in forums for weeks now.  

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REM:  "Detroit.... not lock...(to make playoffs)...."

 

:hits forehead: 

They have made it 22-years in a row and improved their roster in the off season.   

General consensus, as of now, is they are the 3rd best team in the NHL.


Need to follow other teams a little more, not just 100% looking at Canes roster.    

IMO, your prediction the Canes have a 67% chance of making the playoffs is beyond optimistic!!

Naturally, I hope you're right, but gotta be more realistic to keep things in a relative context, else all the other good post/work comes across biased. 

Just sayin, lumping the Canes in with the Redwings (as bubble teams to make the playoffs) just does not compute.

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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REM:  "Detroit.... not lock...(to make playoffs)...."

 

:hits forehead: 

They have made it 22-years in a row and improved their roster in the off season.   

General consensus, as of now, is they are the 3rd best team in the NHL.

Need to follow other teams a little more, not just 100% looking at Canes roster.    

IMO, your prediction the Canes have a 67% chance of making the playoffs is beyond optimistic!!

Naturally, I hope you're right, but gotta be more realistic to keep things in a relative context, else all the other good post/work comes across biased. 

Just sayin, lumping the Canes in with the Redwings (as bubble teams to make the playoffs) just does not compute.

 

How many points did they make it by last year? Hmmmm?

 

A lock means essentially no chance they miss. Pretty good chance they missed last year.

 

I never said we were as good as them. And they clearly should end up beign a playoff team.

 

I follow other teams exactly as much as I "need" to. Since I am not paid to do this, and already spend far too much time at it, if I followed other teams any more I might need to get a life.

Edited by remkin

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. Since I am not paid to do this...  

Rem, for real, what is stopping you?

You seem to REALLY love to write about puck!

Now, once it becomes a "job" it will take some of the "fun" out of it, but just sayin...  if you could close your eye and make it happen -- would you? 

Re: Det-Car, my bad, I felt you were suggesting the Canes odds and the Rwings odds of making it were essentially the same.

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So I hate to go here, because it's not what the post was about, but it does point out the difficulty in assuming that we can gauge how good other teams will be.

 

So far the following are either in disarray, struggling or substantially minus teams solidly below us, despite our brutal opening schedule:

 

NJ, NYR (-14, holy cow), Philly, Washington (what, how could this be?), Florida, Buffalo. 

Even the vaunted supposedly can't miss Red Wings have lost 2 in a row and are -3. 

 

I'm not surprised by any of those. I am surprised Toronto is flying to the extent it is. I guess that epic choke in the playoffs has motivated them. 

 

Of course the sample size is ridiculously small, but just wanted to bump this back up a bit to be honest.

 

Anyway, my post is about the Canes, and so far so good on that.

Edited by remkin

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REM:  "Detroit.... not lock...(to make playoffs)...."

 

:hits forehead: 

They have made it 22-years in a row and improved their roster in the off season.   

Just sayin, lumping the Canes in with the Redwings (as bubble teams to make the playoffs) just does not compute.

 

update: Redwings....Clinched Playoff spot (again!).

That really was not hard to predict my friend!

 

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Ouch.  Painful thread resurrection.

 

 

It never really hurts to predict glorious success for your team on the team's message board, even when the prediction was so completely wrong, because no one will ever blame someone for sticking with their team.  I bet we'll even have similar rosy predictions this fall.

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Ouch.  Painful thread resurrection.

 

 

It never really hurts to predict glorious success for your team on the team's message board, even when the prediction was so completely wrong, because no one will ever blame someone for sticking with their team.  I bet we'll even have similar rosy predictions this fall.

Yep fully agree. And we all can hope for the best,

 

But before folks make statements like "the Canes will make the playoffs" ...  it would carry more power if they also showed who will not make it too....  for example... some here where actually saying Boston had the same odds as the Canes.  

Ditto the Red Wings, etc.  (hence the thread resurrection).

 

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update: Redwings....Clinched Playoff spot (again!).

That really was not hard to predict my friend!

 

 

That they made it again is truly remarkable and speaks amazingly well of their ogranization.

 

However, as is typical you kind of took me out of context.

 

They were, however, far from a lock. Yet again. Barely making it in is still better than not, but not a lock. 

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Greg, Greg, Greg...

 

Now I think if we stay healhy we can be better than MTL, Phily, Tampa and yes, Detroit and also NYR.

Rem Rem Rem....

You went 0 for 6 here!!  0%

MTL, PHILLY, TAMPA, DET and NYR all made the playoffs!

As we all know, the Canes did not.

Upshot - compare the Canes more on a relative basis to improve those forecasts and evaluate things more realistically (ie: analytics).

 

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Greg, the funny thing is that I didn't want to get into predicting what other teams would make it. Oddly, I let you bait me into it.

 

I'll give you one thing my friend, you are good at baiting. Real good.

 

 

As to resurecting this thread, fine. Read my orginal posts. I still think they were reasonalbe predictions and not just another rosey fan's predictions.

 

I don't see anyone predicting complete collapse, which is what happened. Coastal was proabably the closest with the average at best line.

 

It was a bold prediction in the face of just about everyone predicting the opposite and it turned out to be wrong. I still think a lot of the points were legitimate. This team fell on it;'s face. Every forward on the team underperformed in one way or another, some spectacularly.

 

Funny no one resurrects my posts where I got it right. But it is indelicate to do it yourself.

 

Oh well. You win some, you lose some. Just ask this team.

Edited by remkin

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Read my orginal posts. I still think they were reasonalbe predictions and not just another rosey fan's predictions.

 

It was pretty rosey.. second in the division after Pittsburgh?  Rosey in the way you might spritz a steaming pile of horse manure with a little rose perfume.  

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It was pretty rosey.. second in the division after Pittsburgh?  Rosey in the way you might spritz a steaming pile of horse manure with a little rose perfume.  

 

You were pretty quick to jump on Greg's resurrection of this thread. Just 6 minutes and you were on it like a fly on well to use your classy metaphor: horse manure. First, you're not actually Greg are you? Second, are you comrades?

 

If you picked this team at the start of the year to be this bad, I missed it. Sure didn't choose to get in here anywhere on this thread when I originally posted it. Just jumping on the manure pile after it's over.

 

If you did pick team to be this bad somewhere in writing....I would want to be sure that you laid our why this team would be this bad. Just to make sure your as smart as you seem to think. Because it really didn't turn out to be the reasons most people used. 

 

It was an optimistic viewpoint. Turned out to be wrong. But put every forward on an average year give us even the #20 PP in the league, and it would have been different. 

 

Whatever, it was what it was. Turned out to be wrong. 

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Rem,

Clearly most here greatly enjoyed your hard work in doing your in-depth preseason review and write up, myself included.  It gave us all reason to hope things might be different this year.  So again mad props for that.

Second, as we both know, NOBODY is going to hit on 100% of their predictions, but it is fun trying, eh? And I applaud you as being one of the few here that is willing to make predictions -- and reply to point blank questions!
So, please don't think I'm picking on you. We need more Rem's on here not less, IMO!!

The upshot here is this --- if you ONLY focus on the Canes and how they "improved" you'll consistently be overvaluing the team.
You are OFTEN off on your predictions because of this reason.

As we talked about in this thread before the season, to be more accurate you need to objectively consider other NHL teams that we compete with (not just looking at it from the Canes standpoint).   Recall all that?

I claimed this before the season and in doing so, showed you how I felt the Canes had (at best) a 40% chance of making the playoffs. You went more towards 67% for them making it.

Finally, the word choice of baiting? Having point counter-point debate with facts about a topic is hardly "baiting" the other guy. To do an analysis of why the Canes will "rock like a hurricane" requires considering how they stack up again the competition. 






 


 

Edited by Greg-N-Ral

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