Why this year's Hurricanes will Rock Like a....Well a Hurricane

[remkin]

Rem,

Clearly most here greatly enjoyed your hard work in doing your in-depth preseason review and write up, myself included.  It gave us all reason to hope things might be different this year.  So again mad props for that.

Second, as we both know, NOBODY is going to hit on 100% of their predictions, but it is fun trying, eh? And I applaud you as being one of the few here that is willing to make predictions -- and reply to point blank questions!

So, please don't think I'm picking on you. We need more Rem's on here not less, IMO!!

The upshot here is this --- if you ONLY focus on the Canes and how they "improved" you'll consistently be overvaluing the team.

You are OFTEN off on your predictions because of this reason.

As we talked about in this thread before the season, to be more accurate you need to objectively consider other NHL teams that we compete with (not just looking at it from the Canes standpoint).   Recall all that?

I claimed this before the season and in doing so, showed you how I felt the Canes had (at best) a 40% chance of making the playoffs. You went more towards 67% for them making it.

Finally, the word choice of baiting? Having point counter-point debate with facts about a topic is hardly "baiting" the other guy. To do an analysis of why the Canes will "rock like a hurricane" requires considering how they stack up again the competition. 

 

 

 

Greg, even this response while it starts complementary is very baiting. It is ultimately condescending and tweaks resposnses. I am OFTEN wrong? I am also often right. But what am I to do? Research all of my predictions?

 

I'll admit that I have overestimated how well this team would do for a couple of years.

 

It is impossible to accurately predict what one team will do, yet you baited me into trying to predict what every team would do. Detroit is a great example. You said they were a lock. I said they were not a lock having barely made it the year before. They barely made it this year, yet I was wrong.

 

I have made many accurate predictions along the way. I'll not trust you to dig them up.

 

As to baiting. Give me a break. You are the master baiter.

[Greg-N-Ral]

Rem- looks like you are baiting me!  (and isn't name calling against the rules on this board)? LOL

Oh well, guess you just want to look for negatives in my post.  So be it.  

Now if you really want to push back on your actual prediction accuracy, I might go for that baiting.

An objective view of how your predictions did in this thread?  
A massive number of underwhelming comments and inaccurate predictions! In short, a 99% homer take largely still focused on 2006 memories!

I could list 25+ items, but these 2 make for a decent starting place...
 

Remkin states, "Not buying the Khudoben becomes #1 hype for a second..."

ACTUAL: Khudoben  became the unquestioned #1 goalie for the Canes.

 

Remkin states, "Now I think if we stay healhy we can be better than MTL, Phily, Tampa and yes, Detroit and also NYR."

ACTUAL: MTL, PHILLY, TAMPA, DET and NYR all end up with a better record than the Canes and they ALL make the playoffs.


Bottom line: objective forecasting just ain't your thing!!



 

Edited April 12, 2014 by Greg-N-Ral

[Manwolf]

Interesting look back at perspectives earlier this year. In the end, nobody really knew and there are no experts here or anywhere in predicting outcomes.

Rem's pre-season post was a valuable effort that allowed us all to tweak and comment. That I'm sure is appreciated by everyone. Thanks Rem.

I wish Rem's description came to be, and it was well reasoned when posted. If that scenario unfolded the outcome would be different and we'd be Playoff tailgating. One thing we likely all can agree on is the major frustration of MOOP (Missing out on Playoffs). At this point fans, players and management have major disappointment vs respective expectations.

Despite different views from start to finish, we're all in the same place right now unfortunately.

Edited April 12, 2014 by Manwolf

[remkin]

Thanks Man,

 

Greg you picked two things out of that post. What about my stuff on Sekera?

 

Plus that was just one post. I called for Tolchinski early and many many many other things.

 

Greg you have been right about a couple of things and actually make some good points sometimes.

 

But I've been on these boards too long (freely admit) and everytime almost without exception that I read one of your repsonses I strongly feel my buttons pushed. Kudos because I get the feeling that's what you want. But there are thousands of posts and thousands of posters. While some are trolls, and some do some baiting. There is only one that does it like you. You.

 

Look at you calling me a 99% homer.

 

You poke. I think you were that kid that kept poking the other kids saying, I'm not doing that.

 

There is only one master baiter. No one is as good at that as you.

[Greg-N-Ral]

Rem, you keep talking about "master baitering"

and I'm trying to talk about forecasting and how one needs to 

look at things on relative scale (not just focused on the Canes "improvements").
 

I stand by my sincere compliments to you (regardless how you elect to see them) and I also stand by my observation about you not being objective when it comes to forecasting the Canes.  Finally, I did not make these comments about your forecasting AFTER the season, but BEFORE it got started. Back then I was saying you need to consider the competition before claiming the Canes will "make the playoffs."


Perhaps we should start to wind this down, it doesn't seem like we are getting anywhere. 
 

 

[legend-1]

It's sad but I laughed the other day when I remembered Section300 used to drum up a yearly forum tailgate. I can't imagine this group of posters ever wanting to meet each other. This is what I think would happen if we tried that nowadays.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipsPgNEmAXI

 

I envy those who have figured out to embed youtube videos into their post. I just can't figure out the tags from my options in the editor.

Edited April 12, 2014 by legend-1

[OBXer]

Well I'm still on rem island. I don't want to give up my waterfront location. Most of us are fans who just want to share hockey talk and optimism that next years team will be better. I would rather error on the side of optimism. The dark clouds will part and Rem Island will be the place to be when they do.

[colliefan]

the truth is the Canes' playoff chances sunk like a rock after the Olympic break

[dinz]

Greg, even this response while it starts complementary is very baiting. It is ultimately condescending and tweaks resposnses. I am OFTEN wrong? I am also often right. But what am I to do? Research all of my predictions?

 

I'll admit that I have overestimated how well this team would do for a couple of years.

 

It is impossible to accurately predict what one team will do, yet you baited me into trying to predict what every team would do. Detroit is a great example. You said they were a lock. I said they were not a lock having barely made it the year before. They barely made it this year, yet I was wrong.

 

I have made many accurate predictions along the way. I'll not trust you to dig them up.

 

As to baiting. Give me a break. You are the master baiter.

[coastal_caniac]

It's sad but I laughed the other day when I remembered Section300 used to drum up a yearly forum tailgate. I can't imagine this group of posters ever wanting to meet each other. This is what I think would happen if we tried that nowadays.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipsPgNEmAXI

 

I envy those who have figured out to embed youtube videos into their post. I just can't figure out the tags from my options in the editor.

 

Copy the youtube link from whatever web page, then navigate back to your post, and paste the link in your post.  That's it.  Don't use any of the tools, just paste.

[coastal_caniac]

Also wanted to say I appreciate the work that went into the prediction Rem.  It was a great jumping off point for discussion (which it generated tons of) and a well-reasoned prediction.

 

Nobody gets every prediction 100% right on.  But not everybody goes to that length to back it up with "why" either.

 

Oh, and Mock drafts anyone?

Edited April 12, 2014 by coastal_caniac

[wxray1]

Rem's prediction, wrong or otherwise, gave us something to talk about all season.  Maybe even poke a little fun with.  I really appreciate it.  Great fun, Rem, and thanks for being a good sport.

[Kyrule]

I appreciate your optimism Remkin. I am a pessimist by nature, I never think we are going to make the playoffs. But like OBXer so astutely pointed out, I would rather come here and see reasons for hope. I wish I had your positive outlook.

Every year I start with little hope, then I watch things unfold/unravel each year and it is depressing. At least reading your posts gives me some reason to believe.

This year I almost thought we would make the playoffs, I predicted that injuries would be our undoing. So in a way I was wrong too. It wasn't injuries that cost us (even if PK can't see this), it was our top-tier players consistently underperforming.

[caniac-1-1]

 Great fun, Rem, and thanks for being a good sport.

 

Let me know when that starts.  All I've seen is denial and rather offensive accusations of me being a sock-puppet account.. which in forum terms, is like running out of bullets and throwing the gun.

[wxray1]

Let me know when that starts.  All I've seen is denial and rather offensive accusations of me being a sock-puppet account.. which in forum terms, is like running out of bullets and throwing the gun.

 

Let's see.  I've called his island "Atlantis".  I've said it was sitting at the bottom of the kelp forest.  I've accused it of being washed away by a Tsunami.

 

In each case, Rem took it in fun, even posting "Close for Repairs" signs.

 

Sorry for giving Rem some props.  Do you need me to rescind them?  Not saying I like the sock-puppet accusations, just saying the topic was fun.  The mods know the IP addresses and can take up such accusations elsewhere.

Edited April 13, 2014 by wxray1

[SaskCanesFan]

It's sad but I laughed the other day when I remembered Section300 used to drum up a yearly forum tailgate. I can't imagine this group of posters ever wanting to meet each other. This is what I think would happen if we tried that nowadays.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipsPgNEmAXI

 

I envy those who have figured out to embed youtube videos into their post. I just can't figure out the tags from my options in the editor.

 

 Ok this one gave me a pretty good laugh. And I would say in this case, it was better without the link embedded, as I had no idea what the video would be and the surprise was great.

 

Somewhat unrelated point here, but Greg, do you happen to be a laywer?

 

Anyways, I think I would have been on the island at the start of this season as well. Being new here Rem I thinks its pretty cool all the work put in to some of these predictions. And I don't feel that this year was far off of what you said, either. You mentioned this team staying healthy, which didn't completely happen, and also there's no way to predict everyone on the team having their worst statistical season at the same time. Predictions deal with percentages, and I still think if you could play this season out 10 times, you'd be right six or seven. Giving Detroit a 40% chance and having them in the last wildcard spot isn't "wrong" either. Again, try this season 10 times, that means that they make it in four, and this was one of those four. I might have to give them a little higher than 40%, but I think that's close. 

 

Hopefully I can be one of those optimists sitting on the island the start of next year, need to add a few key pieces but I still have some confidence 

[Greg-N-Ral]

Greg, do you happen to be a laywer?

Hahahha… nope just a realist that’s willing to point out huge misconceptions (e.g. “Cam Ward is an elite Top-5 NHL goalie”). 

While some would rather I don’t, in truth it gives some fair balance to a few of the grossly optimistic posters here and those that seem to consider everything “Tripp and John” say as gospel.

Ultimately, I care about the Canes and want to see them win.

EX: Paying Cam the 4^th highest goalie salary while he’s barely the ~30^th best significantly hurts the Canes chances of winning.

 

Edited April 13, 2014 by Greg-N-Ral

[remkin]

When I wrote my prediction I knew that I was going out there, and if I was wrong I'd have to face it. I think I have, but I guess that's up to the readers. 

 

If you re-read the full thing I was right on some things. I missed Khudoben being as good as he has been, but I did praise the pickup the back half of the quote: "he will be a very very good back up". So not like I said he would stink. 

 

I called Sekera. I called Skinner getting back his scoring. I called a solid improvement in defense despite losing Joni. 

 

I expected a better year from Ward. I expected more from Ruutu. 

 

But mainly I expected more from The Staals and Semin, and probably the biggest: from Muller's ability to bring this team to it's potential.

 

On trying to predict the rest of the division, the East has proven weaker than the West, so it really wasn't that important. Getting to 93-94 points was. Detroit did make it. By the skin of their teeth.

 

Detroit getting in does point out though that organization matters. After barely making it last year and sustaining the injuries they did, this really should have been the year they missed. And yet their system and depth got it done, while ours didn't.

 

On this one I'll go down swinging in that I still think there is playoff talent here. But obviously this is not a playoff team. I clearly got that wrong.  

 

I appreciate the many who have come on and taken this is the spirit it was intended. I did think it would play out, but I've generally tried to be willing to admit when I've been wrong.  

 

A long time ago I asked that we have this emoticon available. It is my time to use it:

 

 

   

 

Every time I post I obviously bump this thing back up. 

 

So I'm not planning on responding much if any more on this thread.

 

The year ends officially in a few hours as will the usefulness of these predictions as predictions or anything else. It will soon be about next year. Maybe next year Greg can make the predictions.  .

Edited April 13, 2014 by remkin