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bluedevil58

Why the Canes will miss the playoffs again?

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Hello,

 

Year after year is the same old story.  We have a competitive team here that can never stay consistent.  This year is no different.  From a great January that gave us all hope it then once again turned into the win one lose one win 2 lose 3 win 4 lose 2 scenario that we're all accustomed to.  The sad part is that this is one of the most talented teams that we have seen in quite some time.

 

There are several factors at play here as to why we will miss the playoffs:

 

1.  Jiri's scoring has remained elusive.  Are people doing a better job at shutting down our once potent lines or is he injured?  

 

2.  Semin has been a disappointment offensively.  I do not think it's due to lack of effort.  He is just snake bitten.

 

3.  Ruutu has been horrible.  He might not ever be the same since his injuries.

 

4.  No solid 3rd line center leaves a huge void in the team.  We miss that Cullen-type player that we had success with in the past.

 

5.  Riding Ward.  It was  a blessing that he got injured otherwise we would be in far worse shape.

 

6.  We only have 1 good scoring line and 3 shut down lines complemented by a goal scorer who does not have any help.

 

7.  Our prospects have been lack luster to say the least.

 

But the number one reason as to why we are where we are this season is the draft.  We all knew we needed to draft an impact now player in order to be successful.  We all knew we needed to a big physical forward that could score.  They were there at number 5 and we passed on them.  Instead we made a move for a player that could be good in the future but at what cost?  The cost was another near playoff miss season.

 

Here is to us finishing 9th due to getting blown on 5-1 in the last season win to make the playoffs game.  Something has got to give....

Edited by bluedevil58

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Still believe the Canes can make the playoffs until their record proves otherwise. Upcoming road trip will be a major factor.  Not going to stress until the Fat Lady sings.

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It has been a tough winter this year, and one thing I really look forward to watching the Canes games. I hope they make the playoffs, but it isn't the end of the world if they don't. The one thing that really frustrates me is the number of fans that seem to thrive on the negative. It seems that there are a few here that always have "the sky is falling" mentality. If they don't make it this year, I think they have some good players in place, and with a larger cap next year, can add the players to take them to the next level.

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I don't thrive on negativity.  I am a realist.  This team has been inconsistent all year.  The sky is not going to fall and they are not just going to go into beast mode and win unless a major shake up occurs.  The worst part is I nor anyone else really knows what it is going to take to get this team to actually win.  They haven't since Brindy left.  Also, you say the CAP rises so we have more room to spend money and yet are missing our on money year after year we have losing seasons.  Eventually fans will get fed up and no longer pay to watch this poor product on the ice.  That will result in this franchise moving.  The same thing happened in Hartford.  This area cannot endure a 13 year playoff drought.

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No way in hell will the franchise move. There are enough Canes' fans who have adopted the Cubs' fan mantra of "wait 'till next year” to have a fairly solid fan base  We have a half-decent barn so that is not an issue

 

 PK will need to make a major house-cleaning should the Canes again miss the playoffs but I refuse to grouse about this until their playoff fate is certain. It is a futile as the goalie debate

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remember in 08, we were playing the exact same we we are now, with Lavi, he is fired, Mo comes in and boom, we are a different team with the same players(with the exception of adding Cole), and fought and clawed our way to clinching the 6th seed, and having 2 incredible playoff series against the Devils and Bruins.

 

Players become disillusioned and burn out of a coach's system if it keeps producing a losing effort, that's why mid-season coaching changes can be very effective, and if we don't start winning on a consistent basis soon, I think its something PK needs to think about

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Then how do you fix it? We acquired actual high end talent in Jordan Staal and Alex Semin. Drafted it in Lindholm and Skinner. We brought in veterans to offset our youth. But for some reason we still cannot find that consistency. We hired a new coaching staff, surrounded our head coach with people he knows and trusts and should work well with. And we're still the team that just can't seem to hold onto a good thing whether it's their spot in the playoffs or a lead in a game. Coaching staff change could initially boost our play, but there's no guarantee that happens, and if it doesn't we fire a younger coach who's just starting his head coaching career with potential and replace him with someone who may not even want to stay beyond this season, especially if the coaching change backfires and the team doesn't play any better. It's painful to be a Hurricanes fan, saying you hope for the playoffs but in the back of your head you are already setting yourself up for if/when they miss. I can completely understand the mindset that we are out already, because we've been down this path several times and have historically choked in playoff berth clinching games, especially late in the season. I wish this team's inconsistency and bad luck could be fixed, but I really have no idea what the real cause of these problems are.

 

Fans do need to consider this: we have two high scoring, high octane players in juniors right now in Tolchinsky and McGinn. Next season they will have a chance to make the roster. If anyone seems out of shape or behind on their conditioning or lackluster in the heart department, I guarantee one of those two if not both will steal that player's spot. Next year we could potentially have two players break into the league and they're showing they have potential to really impact our scoring.

 

As for this season, it depends on what it has always depended on, our players showing up and playing the hockey they have proven they can play, and proven they can play it somewhat consistently recently (January). We'll see what the rest of the season has in store for us, but I think the Olympic Break is wearing on us. A lot of uncertainties heading back into post-Olympics hockey, but in my opinion, that benefits us as a team currently on the outside looking in rather than in looking out. And we have been buzzing around the third Metro and final Wildcard spot all season. One decent winning streak in March and we could be fine. Too early to throw in the towel.

Edited by SuckaPunchd

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One way to fix "IT" is to be able to roll into your NHL lineup young talent you drafted like the Boychuk's, McBain's, Dalpe's, Bowman's, Nash's, Rask's, Murphy's and the plethora of defenseman we have drafted not named Faulk.  And not tweeners, top-6 or top pairing talent.

 

Or even guys that come out of nowhere from the late rounds.  I mean Bellemore is a surprise but what happened to the 2008-2011 drafts, depth wise?

Edited by coastal_caniac

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For starters, we need to dump the "useless" salary players for whatever we can get...then when players are up for contract renewals, they need to be performance based, no more blank 5.4 million deals that translate into no production.  Second, time for new assistants at the bare minimum...sorry Dave and John, but we need new defensive and offensive schemes...and someone who can coach a freaking power play!  Third, time to put JR to pasture.

 

After that, get a new GM who has the stones to go full throttle for the now while stockpiling for the long haul (think someone like Ken Holland, but not Ken Holland).  Then strip Eric of the C and have 3 A's...tell the team that no one will wear the C until they can demonstrate leadership both on and off the ice.  I have not seen that consistency from Eric.

 

That's all I got for now.

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So it's time to blow it up? Look at least since 06 I've been right there the whole way. I've seen the terrible years that lead to Skinner and Linholm (thank goodness for that at least), and I was there in the building for the last minute must win losses that would have put us in the playoffs two more times since 06, and who knows from there. I get that over time since 06, there has been some terrible and some just could not seal the deal years along with the one nice run. I get that when the hockey gods raise their hand lately we flinch a bit. But this year is not over. We are in the mix. If this team, as constructed misses again, I'll be right there with the blow it up crowd. But not yet. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

Let me also say that I get that people can have honest, reasonable, smart observations about this team's chances based on this actual team, that conclude we might not make it. We are slightly outside looking in and will probably not run away from the pack.

 

So, with that said:

 

Reasons the Canes will not make the playoffs: (yes, I start with that).

 

1. There are more teams than playoff chairs. Pretty easy to predict not making it based just on that. 

2. We currently sit out of the playoffs, even with games in hand considered. This is the big one. We have to gain ground.

3. We have a very tough schedule to finish the year, w/ a brutal tour of the best in the West to start things off. A good team could go 2-4 throughout that stretch and not hang their heads, and worse is possible.

4. The momentum we had built pre Olympics might not return.

 

Reasons the Canes will make the playoffs:

 

1. The team has the talent to do it. 

2. The team's most recent stretch of 18 games, the team is 12-6. 

3. Over that 12-6 run they laid down once, and were clearly outplayed twice, maybe thrice (who actually says thrice?)

4. Canes have tended to be back half teams. E. tends to finish strong.

5. Outside of Ruutu and maybe Sekera and Semin the team got to rest and recover. Key for both Staals, Skinner.

6. Two key competitors will face injuries/burned out Olympic players: Detroit, and NYR. 

(Detroit losing Zetterberg, Datsuk a bit banged up, and 10 olympians to burn out...it's going to take another last second break to keep their streak alive IMO).

7. If (I know it's if) but if Ward returns to form we have two outstanding goalies.

8. Lindholm is steadily building and contrary to some's opinion, letting the 19 yo rest up a bit over the break was smart, he will just build.

9. There is a move still coming. JR will do something.

10. Ruutu may have found some game or gained some trade value.

 

Yes, it was a luke warm finish just pre olympics, but overall things were coming together over the last 18 games. The biggest problem will be the schedule. It is not kind. LA, ANA, SJ, NYR x2 , BOS, CHI, CBJ, CHI, PIT, DAL x 2, DET, PHI, WPG: Bold road games.

 

We are going to have to go into the houses of simply the best teams in the league and get some wins and points, then win the very solid majority of our home games, which are not quite as rough, but still not a cake walk.

 

BUT looking at the other contenders it is the same for nearly all of them also. And that is the saving grace.

 

The schedule and the fact that we have ground to make up do give me pause, but I'm still saying we make it.

 

 

Lastly this. The idea that we are in the gaggle of teams going down the stretch is not an indication that this team is bad or should be blown up or is inconsistent. There are only two teams in the East that can clearly avoid that tag: Pittsburgh and Boston. When games in hand are figured in the #3 team is only about 5 points up. Thus of the 16 teams in the conference, 14 are either in danger of dropping out of the playoffs or basically already out. 

 

We need to see JR pull the trigger on a move, we need to take Buffalo and Dallas to start the brutality and find a way to pick up at least 2-3 points out west. Then roll.

 

It's all about the finish. 

Edited by remkin

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It 'ain't over 'til the fat lady      :preach:        I am looking through my binoculars, and I don't see a singing fat lady rowing out to Remkins' island...................well, not yet anyway

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I think we all knew that the March Schedule was a huge Mt to overcome. Looking at those games its hard to not see the glass half empty.. Odds of the Canes winning the majority of those road games are not good.. Not trying to be a downer, just a realist...

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We have to out together a couple of 3 and 4 game win streaks in the next 2weeks or else forget it.  We are not in good position to make playoffs right now, only a couple of quick winning streaks can change that.  But than we also have to hope everyone else loses.  Not good but it is possible given that history has shown we always make a close run in the end lead by Eric Staal scoring like crazy.  We'll see.

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This year's schedule on paper looked to be the toughest I've seen that I can remember. Lots of back to backs vs. rested teams, 3 in 4 night stretches, and except for January, we were playing good teams constantly. Then throw in a make up game and a 5 in 7 stretch (with in the 12-6 run). 

 

How this team handles the next 7 games will be key. And a good start in Buffalo is pretty crucial. If we can get 7+  points in those games we will probably fall a bit back but not out. To do that, we almost have to have 2 in Buffalo and at least one in Dallas. LA/ANA back to back with a 3rd in 4 in SanJose is just sick. 

 

Then there's the old "first game back from a long road trip" vs NYR which Tripp keeps saying is a loss usually, and a back to back in NJ. But we NEED those. If ever there were two important games vs. teams in our division. 

 

That schedule straight up is brutal. But looking over the schedules of several teams we are battling with, their's isn't gravy either. 

 

Example. The NYR, fresh back from Olympic Gold for 3 guys, still sent 7 to the Olympics, will have some wore down players. Ahead of us in the standings, but we play them twice both in Raleigh. They play Chicago, Philly (road), Boston, Toronto, Carolina x 2 (both road), Detroit, Min/WPG (road), San Jose. 

 

I still say that the 12-6 team is the most recent version, and that team can get it done.

 

But they cannot come out to a slow road trip. If they can surprise and get 8-9 points in there...lets think that thought.

Edited by remkin

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Come out guns ablazin, rem, and I'm still with you. The "island" is looking better all the time. Boy how I wish we could start purchasing playoff tickets? These 1st 5-7 I agree are crucial.

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Come out guns ablazin, rem, and I'm still with you. The "island" is looking better all the time. Boy how I wish we could start purchasing playoff tickets? These 1st 5-7 I agree are crucial.

for those of us who are full STH, tickets to the first two rounds are in our ticket books.  don't know if this presumption angered the hockey gods

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for those of us who are full STH, tickets to the first two rounds are in our ticket books.  don't know if this presumption angered the hockey gods

 Ah, I too am an STHer but had forgotten that detail. Thanks for reminding me, colliefan.

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Without a major shake up this team is not going to magically come together and march into the post season.  IF they were to come together they would have done it well before now.  We are once again in the same spot that we find ourselves in almost every year.  Competitive but not competitive enough to make the playoffs.

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