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bluedevil58

Why the Canes will miss the playoffs again?

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Need to go 5-3 every 8 games.  Not an impossible pace, but unlikely.  Regardless, it is do-able,

 

I just finished a "Live The Life" season in NHL 2014 and ironically the Hurricanes (not the team I "play" for) finished 7 games over .500 in 9th place in the East.  I looked at that and shook my head.

 

As far as reasons go for the Canes current situation (and possibly the situation for years)...  go look at the NHL stats.  Our 9.25M player is 38th in the league in points, it must be he is a defensive forward then, but he is a -7, so there goes that.  I am not piling on the Staals, but the team IS BUILT with them as the cornerstone foundation.  The organization is ALL IN with the Staal family, and it is up to each and every one of you to think about that, and decide what impact that is on the team.  I know I am not too pleased with the results.  Our franchise player is 38th on the list, and our next player is #66 on the list.  Maybe if we were one of the top defenses you could live with this, but we are 16th in goals against.   21st in goals for, 26th in power play, 25th in penalty kill.  What do we hang our hat on, where are we the best in the league?  Even top 10? 

 

There it is, short handed goals. #1.  All we need to do is take penalties and then we'll get them...

 

I even depress myself.  I don't like to point these things out, but it is real hard to believe we are going to see a turnaround.  I will be screaming my head off to win every game, but they make it so hard man, so hard.

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the Ca. portion of the trip is going to be brutal.   The Sharks, Ducks, and Kings are legit playoff teams. Need to win against the Slugs and Stars and get a point from one of these three games

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If the team from the last 18 games shows up, then the stats from the first half will not translate. If the team from the first half of the year shows up, then it won't matter.

 

I'll tell you this, I haven't really minded the break, but I am really looking forward to watching tomorrow.

 

Go Canes!

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Holy Hell when did this happen? You would think we would have learned our lesson the first time!

:D

I think it was the same year when Tampa beat us the last game of the year to eliminate us from the playoffs. They used the same tactics the Japanese used at the first pearl harbor. A sneak attack while we slept.

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I think it was the same year when Tampa beat us the last game of the year to eliminate us from the playoffs. They used the same tactics the Japanese used at the first pearl harbor. A sneak attack while we slept.

I stand corrected, Florida Panthers. I should of know that as I was at the game.

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Rem,

 

I disagree.  during the last few games before the break, the Canes came back down to earth and played like they have all season.

BD, that is a valid point. They did not get the job done in the last 3 games on balance. But I'm of the belief that 3 games is too small a sample unless they stunk out loud or the inverse. They lost to Winnipeg by 1 goal, outshot them, beat the pants off of FLA, then lost to MTL back to back vs. rested. It was not the desired result, but before that they were 11-4.

 

Of course we're all trying to predict the future. An imperfect art to say the least. We look to the past to predict the future. We look at results, record, stats, and the eyeball test, and we throw in some angst from past years too. 

 

The fact is, no one can be sure which team is the real Canes. It mostly depends on which stretch of games one uses to reveal the true Canes. The entire year? The bad part of the year? A more recent longer stretch? The last 3 games? The last week? The last game? 

 

I am choosing to predict that the body of work since the MTL comeback game is who this team is. I am choosing to look at that entire stretch of games since that game marks this team. I do think that the last game vs MTL loss really stung. Canes win that one and I have no doubt there's way more optimism here. But the one thing I'm pretty sure of is that a single game reveals next to nothing. The Canadians are a very good team. They were rested. Sure not getting those points could be huge, but the fact that the Canes "needed" that game in no way means they win it.

 

Anyway, what I am really trying to say is that those who feel that the Canes last few games, or their entire season are the best predictors have valid points. I am selecting and 18 game stretch, which is cherry picking a bit. But, it is the most recent long stretch of games, and something seemed to really improve after they got that comeback win vs MTL.

 

The one smaller stretch that I would point to in countering the last 3 games was the stretch right before that:

 

5 games in 7 nights: 4-1 with the loss in the last game back to back vs. rested. Then the next game beat one of the best teams in hockey 3-1.  

 

So they had 5 games in 7 nights, then the Blues, and went 5-1. That was just 3 games ago.

Edited by remkin

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:goodpost:

Well, at least it mostly reflects my perspective as well.  However, recognizing the challenging schedule we have left, I'm estimating our playoff chances at 53%.  We'll find out really quickly if that's realistic or not. We can't afford to leave even 1 point on the table in Buffalo tonight.

Edited by LakeLivin

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We need at least 16 wins in the next 25 games. I think this team has proven in the past (numerous times) that a run like that at this point in the year despite the schedule can do that. The catch is the team has proven in the past (numerous times) that they can also come up just short of that as well. I only can really hope that this team can do it. I don't look at the remainder of the season and go "No Way". I see a very doable situation for the team. Excited to see names being made for us if it all does turn out good. Khudobin, Gerbe, Sekera, Faulk, Bellemore.

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They lost to Winnipeg by 1 goal, outshot them, beat the pants off of FLA, then lost to MTL back to back vs. rested. It was not the desired result, but before that they were 11-4.

Anyway, what I am really trying to say is that those who feel that the Canes last few games, or their entire season are the best predictors have valid points. I am selecting and 18 game stretch, which is cherry picking a bit. But, it is the most recent long stretch of games, and something seemed to really improve after they got that comeback win vs MTL.

 

Rem, I love your enthusiasm and endless glass half full perspective.  As fans, that is much better than the glass half empty approach.

 

Just remember that in addition to being 11-4 during that period, we were also 11-9 if you go back a little more (technically 11-7-2).

 

The reason we like that particular segment in time is it paints us in a good light.  Like all of you, I really hope to see that team take the ice for the rest of the season. 

 

A statistician going in blind would calculate the most probable ending record as 37-33-13 for 87 points.  All I did there was to take the likelyhood of exactly the same percentage of what we did so far in the season occurring at the same percentages over the last 25 games.  i.e. "What has happened before tends to keep happening."

 

So for us to make it, we need to do significantly better than we have so far.  So I will say, we will, because the glass is half full, although we really need it to be about two thirds full.  :)

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Hag,

 

Yes, to agree with me one has to believe that something clicked after that Montreal incredible comeback. That's why the 18 game stretch is uniquely telling. It is selective, but there is a logic behind that selection.

 

18 games is a pretty long stretch, and there was the challenge of the 5 in 7 then St. Louis in there. 

 

Part of my sense of optimism goes back to my original post before the season began. I really think that we have the horses to be in that next tier below the studs. So my bias is that the moves that created this team were real and good. But the team underperformed pre MTL comeback for whatever reason. 

 

So the last 18 games confirms my assertion from the beginning of the year, that on paper this team should be good. 

 

A bit of confirmation bias? Maybe. 

 

I do think that my position is not just rosy eyed bias though. There is basis for the belief. In the end time will tell though.

 

The schedule maker and whoever put 2 extra teams in the East are not making it easy, but I'm still on the Island. 

Edited by remkin

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We'll continue to miss the playoffs for one reason and one reason only. Cam Ward. He is not a winner as evidenced by the first goal tonight. Total miss with his glove. Why the Canes stick with this guy for YEARS is astounding. One streak during the cup year and he wins the starting job. Nothing to show for it since. A Khudobin/Peters combo is far better than anything having to do with Ward. He's a testimony to misplaced upper management loyalty to a loser. Consequently they should all be fired from Rutherford on up. Yea, I am sure there will be naysayers but it will be based on emotion, not on records and facts. 

Edited by Nomar

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We'll continue to miss the playoffs for one reason and one reason only. Cam Ward. He is not a winner as evidenced by the first goal tonight. Total miss with his glove. Why the Canes stick with this guy for YEARS is astounding. One streak during the cup year and he wins the starting job. Nothing to show for it since. A Khudobin/Peters combo is far better than anything having to do with Ward. He's a testimony to misplaced upper management loyalty to a loser. Consequently they should all be fired from Rutherford on up. Yea, I am sure there will be naysayers but it will be based on emotion, not on records and facts. 

A relative of Greg?

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As always,  MENTAL TOUGHNESS.. we dont have it...  Tough luck, puck going off  Faulks  stick.. but Miller was all-world, still should have won game...  SELLERS

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still believe the Canes can make the playoffs but their response in this first game after the break makes me question my optimism

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Its approaching that critical tipping point where I have to decide to keep rooting for the Canes, or hope we flat out crumble so serious changes are made.

 

I know one thing, as it stands now I'm not looking forward to another season with this group of players......

 

.......coaches.......

 

.......management.

 

I think I just answered my own question.  

 

.

Edited by Kyrule

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last night's debacle proves a serious gut-check time is needed for everyone on the team - from head coach down to towel man and water boy.

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Well their goes our "game in hand", now we have to win a lot more than the other 4 wild card teams. Not looking good but still possible and doable. Cmon 15-5-4 record.

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Ref: losing to Sabres - yep, kiss the playoffs good bye. Ward's 2 easy missed goals and then of course the game winner scored by Faulk.Sure a bad luck bounce but why was the game close enough for that to happen? They're playing the #32 team in the league with 40 pts and lowest goals scored per game in the league. If Khudobin was in the net they'd have won 2-1 (assuming the same 3rd goal flub) but more likely a 3-0 Khudobin (empty netter at game end) win instead of a 3-2 Ward loss . Feel free to express yourself dinz, I'm not trying to be nasty in ANY way, just a realist and I am definitely a strong (but frustrated) Canes fan and frequent attender in $100+ seats.. As I said, I felt if people still wanted Ward, it would be based on emotion, it simply cannot be based on any factual evidence. Other than a few spurts of sharpness over the years he has generally been a mediocre goalie. Even this year his Save Pct and GAA is poor and his record shows it. He should be one of those players traded for anything they can get, he'd be a second stringer (at best) with most other teams, certainly not a #1. Why do you think Muller put him in against the Sabres? Because surely they could beat the worst, weakest team in the league and he could get a good workout. Big mistake. They needed Khudobin to get right back into the swing of things, he's shown his durability and should not be 'rested' after a 2 week break in favor of 'Ward says YES'. Can't Ward means the Hurricanes can't. 

Edited by Nomar

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