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bluedevil58

Why the Canes will miss the playoffs again?

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Of the remaining 24 games, all but five are against teams solidly in the playoff hunt. Last night's debacle means these five games cannot be assumed to be a win.. Instead of April being "the cruelest month" it could very well be March and the Canes could be out of the playoffs by the Ides of March.

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Plain and simple.  Canes are not a winning team with Cam in nets.  With him not in nets, they are.  Might not be directly his fault but the TEAM plays better for some reason without him in goal.

Yes, because without Ward, they climbed all the way up to 12th in the East.

Do you guys even think this out before you start posting? The problem is deeper than any one player.

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Yes, because without Ward, they climbed all the way up to 12th in the East.

Do you guys even think this out before you start posting? The problem is deeper than any one player.

Hmm, let me throw it back to you since you apparently didn't think it out before posting. Just do a little research (the stats) before throwing a flame. OBVIOUSLY overall record is a combo of all goalies on team, which puts them in 12th place but which goalie makes a difference? Seems pretty clear when stats are considered and easy to extrapolate over the course of an entire season. Simple enough? If Khudobin played entire season, no Ward, do ya think they'd be higher up in standings? I'd bet they'd be a shoe in for the playoffs.

 

Khudobin: W-L: 13-6 GAA: 2.14  Sv%: .927

Ward:        W-L:  6-8  GAA:3.14   Sv%: .893

 

Forgot to add, Ward has lost an additional 5 in O/T & Shootouts, Khudobin None (doesn't get to O/T) So same number of games, 13-6 vs. 6-13 record when viewed as simple W-L records. On top of that, although Peters is 7-9-4, GAA; 2.50 He's there after a very weak start. However once he played regularly he was winning. So in terms of points, Ward has produced the fewest of any of the 3 goalies on the team. Ward has been #1 for years and has led them to playoffs once INCLUDING the year they won the cup, he wasn't a reg that year (didn't lead them to playoffs) but had a few hot series to take the cup. Since then, basically zilch except as I said, a couple of hot streaks with same seasonal results. 

Edited by Nomar

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Hmm, let me throw it back to you since you apparently didn't think it out before posting.

Thought it out enough to check stats and see that he has played in 20 of 58 games so far this season. 8 of those games were played on or before Oct 24th when he was first injured. By the way, the Canes were 5th in the East on Oct 24.

Yep, lay it all on one player. Now you guys figure out how Ward is responsible for the terrible power play.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Part of me wants us to move Ward, just to demonstrate that it will make minimal difference.  However, I don't want us to move a guy just to see a bunch of people lose an argument.  Not that it would settle it anyway.  If it happened and didn't work, it would move on to some other reason.  If it happened and did work, the other bunch of people would point out the team started playing better.

 

20 guys dress.  Several guys coach, and there is a few in the front office too.  And one big cheese who lives in Detroit.  Lots of blame to go around.

 

I blame building the team around a foundation of the Staals but it is a lukewarm argument too.  There is no way to ever win or lose it, you can't solve a multi-variable equation like this, too many factors involved for there to be a provable right and a wrong.

 

Simple intuition does point to a lot more than the goalie, but of course, it is once again an opinion.

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We'll continue to miss the playoffs for one reason and one reason only. Cam Ward. He is not a winner as evidenced by the first goal tonight. Total miss with his glove. Why the Canes stick with this guy for YEARS is astounding. One streak during the cup year and he wins the starting job. Nothing to show for it since. A Khudobin/Peters combo is far better than anything having to do with Ward. He's a testimony to misplaced upper management loyalty to a loser. Consequently they should all be fired from Rutherford on up. Yea, I am sure there will be naysayers but it will be based on emotion, not on records and facts. 

 

 

A relative of Greg?

 

I suspect that IS Greg.  The guy's very first post blames the entirety of the team's problems on Ward?  And look at his next two posts; if there was no identification attached I'd bet that most of us would have identified Greg as the person posting (he has a recognizable style).  I suspect Greg realizes he's lost credibility when it comes to Ward and has opened a duplicate account in a new attempt to sell others on his perspective.  Of course I could be wrong, but I doubt it. :grin: 

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At this point I just have to see what this team will do over the next several games. They lost one they should have won, and lost it depressing fashion for the second time recently. So they have lost two they should have won, now they need to win two they should have lost. Anyway, I tire of trying to figure out who's to blame, so I step back except to say that on paper this team should be a playoff team based on reasonable projections of player's historical production.

 

Anyway, my main question is this. I really think that starting Ward in Buffalo was an odd move. In fact I was frankly surprised that I seemed to be alone on that one. Makes me really wonder if JR is shopping Ward a bit. If there has been interest in Ward, and if JR is ready to roll the dice on Khudini, Ward would have to make a few decent starts before the deadline in order to be able to trade him.

 

Just musing here, but  wonder if Ward is seriously on the market.

Edited by remkin

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Thought it out enough to check stats and see that he has played in 20 of 58 games so far this season. 8 of those games were played on or before Oct 24th when he was first injured. By the way, the Canes were 5th in the East on Oct 24.

Yep, lay it all on one player. Now you guys figure out how Ward is responsible for the terrible power play.

I was the one who put out the team's record with both those goalies playing and how the team has a winning percentage with Khodobin in nets.  Is it all Ward's fault?  Of course not!  BUT, this team has won more than they lose when he is not the starter and Khodobin is (by a large margin).  For some reason we get more from our players when he is not in nets.  Same power play for both those guys.....

 

But feel free to do the research on the effect of other players being in the lineup compared to those they are replacing and see if there is another case where the above holds true.  Just easy to check with goaltending.  Perhaps we are a much better team when Zack Boychuk is in the lineup as well but his ice time hardly makes him a difference maker in that category.

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Who cares let the person voice their opinion, that's what this whole forum is here for. I personally have no confidence in Ward anymore, but that doesn't mean I blame him for the plague of problems that follows this team everywhere.

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I was the one who put out the team's record with both those goalies playing and how the team has a winning percentage with Khodobin in nets.  Is it all Ward's fault?  Of course not!  BUT, this team has won more than they lose when he is not the starter and Khodobin is (by a large margin).  For some reason we get more from our players when he is not in nets.  Same power play for both those guys.....

 

But feel free to do the research on the effect of other players being in the lineup compared to those they are replacing and see if there is another case where the above holds true.  Just easy to check with goaltending.  Perhaps we are a much better team when Zack Boychuk is in the lineup as well but his ice time hardly makes him a difference maker in that category.

 

If you would notice, I was responding to somebody else.  Somebody made the statement that the team was so much better without Ward in goal, and I just pointed out that those other goalies had gotten the Canes all the way to 12th place in the standings.

 

Honestly, these type of discussions and arguments are why I seldom post here any more.  There once was a time that I was one of the most active members here.  Now everything is just "blame Player X" for everything, or "look at my stats".  Well, Player X isn't responsible for the Canes not making the playoffs year after year.  Stats aren't worth squat when you pick and choose what stats are stats and what stats "don't count".  We used to really have some good hockey talk on this board, but now it has degenerated into this garbage.

 

I'm starting to get burned out on message boards in general, and not just this one.  Most have way too much "expert" opinion and advice for me these days.  Seems like some people just thrive on trying to assert their will somewhere in life and the internet is the place for that.  It's the modern day bathroom wall.  Anybody can sit down and scribble down whatever they want to.

Edited by super_dave_1

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If you would notice, I was responding to somebody else.  Somebody made the statement that the team was so much better without Ward in goal, and I just pointed out that those other goalies had gotten the Canes all the way to 12th place in the standings.

 

Honestly, these type of discussions and arguments are why I seldom post here any more.  There once was a time that I was one of the most active members here.  Now everything is just "blame Player X" for everything, or "look at my stats".  Well, Player X isn't responsible for the Canes not making the playoffs year after year.  Stats aren't worth squat when you pick and choose what stats are stats and what stats "don't count".  We used to really have some good hockey talk on this board, but now it has degenerated into this garbage.

 

I'm starting to get burned out on message boards in general, and not just this one.  Most have way too much "expert" opinion and advice for me these days.  Seems like some people just thrive on trying to assert their will somewhere in life and the internet is the place for that.  It's the modern day bathroom wall.  Anybody can sit down and scribble down whatever they want to.

You know, super_dave_1, quickly skimming thru your above post reminds me of the situation I frequently experience in my profession. If you'll indulge me for just a second to bore you with such, it seems that my collegues feel that there is more credibility to "numbers" than their educated knowledge. Thus, if attempting to bolster their diagnosis, they all seem to think that the more lab tests they order, the sounder is their opinion. Reverance to numbers frequently replaces common sense. Just thought I'd share.

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I just noticed something interesting.  The difference in the Canes play after the NYs Eve game seems to be due much more to the Canes offense than to goaltending (Khudini).  In Khudini's 11 wins since Jan 1, the Canes averaged 3.9 goals/ game (and Kudo gave up 2.0 GPG).  In his 5 losses the Canes averaged 0.4 GPG, Kudo gave up 2.8 GPG, and 3 of the 5 losses were against excellent goalies playing excellent games (Bobrovski and Price (twice)).   No criticism towards anyone here, just wondering if going forward whether the Khudini/ Ward goaltending situation might be a tad less important than some of us are making it out to be. 

 

CF in Montreal: I hear your point about the team scoring more behind Kudo, but note that all but 1 of Wards games came before the new year and all but 2 of Khudiini's came after the new year.  It's possible that the offensive support isn't due as much to the goaltender as to an offense that started to click in the new year.    

 

My opinion: I don't think Khudini by himself is strong enough to get us to the playoffs this year given the challenges we face.  I think the only way we make it is if Kudo continues his solid play and Ward gets hot and steals a couple of games along the way.   

Edited by LakeLivin

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To all,

First, I haven't a clue who Greg is, I am new on this board and I am not Greg. Second - on the Ward, super_dave_1 posted somewhat of a flame with is comment: "Yes, because without Ward, they climbed all the way up to 12th in the East. Do you guys even think this out before you start posting?"

 

I've answered that with a very credible argument but the facts seemed to be ignored in favor of emotion. Clearly Dave, you demonstrate that you don't adhere to your own flame about thinking out before posting. You came back with this somewhat silly argument that as the first 10 games goes (your October 24th comment about being in 5th on that day) so goes the rest of the season (or so implied). The facts belie the emotion. Did you honestly think out what you said before you posted it? it makes no sense, it's over the longer term that what determines how good a goalie and team are, not over the first 3 weeks of the season.

 

Another fact. The goalie is (minimally arguable) the single most influential player contributing to a team's success. He is the ONLY player on the ice for the entire 60 minutes. In Ward's case, he has now, going on 5 years, no playoff to show for it. His stats prove his worth if you look at the stats. How else can you judge a player? Certainly in the end an entire team takes responsibilty for their success or failure but the goalie is key. How good would NJ Devils have been without ever having Martin Brodeur or the Anaheim Ducks without Quick?  Goalies make or break a team just like pitchers do in baseball except a goalie is all the MORE influential because unlike pitchers, they (the good ones) play well in excess of 60% or even 75%) of the games in a season, unlike a pitching rotation of 1 ever 4 (25% max) games in a season. 

 

Sometimes it's just time to separate the emotion and move on. Ward is simply not the 'it' man for the Canes. Maybe for another team but it doesn't work in Carolina. You seem to refuse to see that a 13-6 goalie with a significantly better GAA makes little difference to a team over a 6-13 goalie who allows a full goal more per game. AS A FORMER GOALIE, I have watched him very carefully. Frequently he gives up the first goal and the team fights back to tie. Then he gives up another soft goal, the team fights back again for a tie. I can't tell you how often this happens... it's deflating on a team that has a problem hold a lead with a goalie who does not inspire confidence because he can't hold a lead. This was aptly demonstrated with the 2 soft goals agains Buffalo the other night. Then comes the bad bounce off winner for the Sabres. The Canes simply shouldn't have been in that position. Watch the replays of the scores if you can find them, believe me they were soft goals and very common to Ward. So yes,  think about what you post before posting it. Teams turn things around on who they chooose to be in goal so stop giving that silly 12th place argument and think over the course of the entire year do you really think that a Khudobin lead Hurricanes would be in better or poorer position than one led by Ward? Consider not only this year but the last 5 years as you decide.

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Kind of make you/me wonder if the Canes players have any confidence in Cam. To me it looks like a different team on the ice when Cam is in net. Just seems to have a lot less energy all over the ice. Wonder if they feel that even if they play their butts off Cam will let in another softie goal and they lose. If that happens early in a game(which when Cam is in net it usually does) it seems like it takes the wind out of the sails for the rest of the game. Yes they sometimes do come back but not as much as they should! How would everyone feel about Cam if he wasn't the goalie in net( at the end of the season after Gerber got hurt &  other players didn't know Cams soft spots) back when they won the Cup, would a lot of people/fans still want Cam on the Canes team?

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Bingo (to DJHarley). Fact is fact, Cam doesn't inspire but for the reasons stated. I just don;t get the argumentative nature of those that are content to keep the status quo non-playoff ways. It's a business and no matter how nice a guy I am sure Cam Ward is, keeping him as #1 is just as super-dave/Einstein says;

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Yup, doesn't change anything, kind of like the last 5 years. Change much of the team out but Cam in the net...

Edited by Nomar

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Bingo (to DJHarley). Fact is fact, Cam doesn't inspire but for the reasons stated. I just don;t get the argumentative nature of those that are content to keep the status quo non-playoff ways. It's a business and no matter how nice a guy I am sure Cam Ward is, keeping him as #1 is just as super-dave/Einstein says;

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.(Cam)

Yup, doesn't change anything, kind of like the last 5 years. Change much of the team out but Cam in the net...

 

Flame on, big boy...flame on.

 

I'm through with this.  It's the same argument as always.  If you aren't totally against all things Cam Ward, you are a Ward apologist.  I have said that Khudobin has taken the top spot.  I just don't know how that gets contorted into more than it is.

 

It is asinine to talk about how much better the results are in front of a different goalie when the team is in 12th place with that goalie.  The problem is more than goalie deep.

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Don't get why you keep insisting they are in 12th place with 'that goalie' when the entire point is 'that goalie' is 13-6 while -that other goalie- is 6-13. So you see the issue, big boy gets tired of beating the tune that if 'that goalie' were played in favor of -that other goalie- they'd be much higher in the standings instead of sitting in 12th. Great example fresh in our memories  -that other goalie- just lost to the 32nd team in the league, the one with the lowest point total and lowest goals-per-game average, on 2 very soft goals, as many of his have been over the years. Good goalies minimize softies, great goalies rarely let them through, hence the success when good teams have great goalies. We're a good team trying to find a good goalie and thus far Khudobin shines, not Ward.

 

Flamers always love accusing others of flaming so feel free (recall your unsolicited attempt at a cut down in your note that started the discussion). I am merely pointing out exactly what the organization has done with 5 years of sticking with Ward as their #1, you should take heart with me pointing out what insanity it is rather than taking it personal. I assure you I am not (taking it personal), we're merely in a free discussion which seems to anger you. That was why I said at the outset that emotion towards Cam Ward should be removed from the discussion and performance should be the deciding factor.

Edited by Nomar

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Nomar, I sure hope youre watching the game right now because while youre planning your next witty response, your shining goalie Khudobin appears to be in some trouble.  Maybe superdave is onto something because the one common denominator between last night and tonight is the the entire rest of the team's play.

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Nomar, I sure hope youre watching the game right now because while youre planning your next witty response, your shining goalie Khudobin appears to be in some trouble.  Maybe superdave is onto something because the one common denominator between all previous seasons and this season is the entire rest of the team's play.

 

Corrected that for you.

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Maybe superdave is onto something because the one common denominator between last night and tonight is the the entire rest of the team's play.

You know, I don't think it takes a rocket surgeon to figure that part out. It is, and has been the problem for a long time.

I guess tonight the team isn't confident in Ward's ability to open the bench door and that is the problem.

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You know, I don't think it takes a rocket surgeon to figure that part out. It is, and has been the problem for a long time.

I guess tonight the team isn't confident in Ward's ability to open the bench door and that is the problem.

 

Where do rockets go for this surgery you speak of?   :thumbsup2:

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The Canes have accumulated 61 points in 58 games.  Need more than half that amount in the remaining 24 games to reach the playoffs.  Unless we can switch this team with the 80 "Miracle on Ice" team, not going to happen.

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