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hag65

Missing the playoffs - is our perspective screwy?

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I went through an exercise, mostly due to my own curiosity on where our franchise compared in playoff futility.  I took the last 20 seasons, and figured out how many playoffs seasons each team made, and the streaks (how many in a row, each way), and finally the number of cups won.  Here are the results.

 

Team                  Made Playoffs Missed Playoffs Made Streak Missed Streak Cups               
--------------------- ------------- --------------- ----------- ------------- ----
Detroit Red Wings     20            0               20 (22)     0             4
New Jersey Devils     17            3               13          1             3
Pittsburgh Penguins   16            4               9           4             1
Philadelphia Flyers   16            4               11          2             0
San Jose Sharks       16            4               9           2             0
Boston Bruins         15            5               6           2             1
St Louis Blues        15            5               12          3             0
Colorado/Quebec       14            6               11          3             2
Ottawa Senators       14            6               11          4             0
Washington Capitals   14            6               6           3             0
Vancouver Canucks     14            6               5           4             0
Montreal Canadiens    13            7               4           3             1
Dallas Stars          12            8               5           5             1
Buffalo Sabres        12            8               5           3             0
Chicago Blackhawks    11            9               5           5             2
New York Rangers      11            9               4           7             1
Toronto Maple Leafs   11            9               6           7             0
Phoenix/Winnipeg      10            10              5           6             0
Anaheim Ducks          9            10              2           3             1
Los Angeles Kings      9            11              4           6             1
Calgary Flames         9            11              5           7             0
Nashville Predators    7            7               4           5             0
Edmonton Oilers        7            13              5           7             0
New York Islanders     7            13              3           7             0
Tampa Bay Lightning    6            14              4           6             1
Hurricanes/Whalers     5            15              2           6             1
Minnesota Wild         4            8               2           4             0
Florida Panthers       4            15              2           10            0
Columbus Blue Jackets  1            11              1           7             0
Winnipeg/Atlanta       1            12              1           6             0

                
 

Why Bother Award:          
Columbus has only played 1 playoff series and has never won a playoff game.
Winnipeg/Atlanta has only played 1 playoff series and has never won a playoff game.

 

Never Recovered Award:

The Oilers have not played a playoff game since losing to Carolina in Game 7 in 2006.

 

Playoff Futility Award:
The 12 year streak for the Blues going further back was actually a 25 year playoff streak, but no cups.

 

My Own Conclusions:

 

I was actually surprised how many franchises had lengthy streaks where they missed the playoffs.  In perspective, ours is painful but not unprecedented.  Also, when you see how many teams had some nice runs, but with nothing to show for it, it does say that winning a cup can do a lot to ease the pain of other bad years.  I asked myself if I would trade some of those 14-6 records for the Canes/Whalers 5-15, IF I had to also give up the Cup.  I don't think so.  How about trade for the Blues 25 year straight? I bet I would start to add up all that playoff money and get pretty ticked that the Lightning or Canes got a cup.  The Lightning and Canes do stand out as anomalies in that respect, with a lot of playoff futility, but grabbing it that one time.  And I guess for me that does kind of help a bit.

 

There is is, for what it is worth.

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thanks for the overview.  if I remember correctly the Bolts has an incredible streak of sellouts of their barn after they won the Cup in 2004. 

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Interesting stats hag65.  In the scheme of pro sports, life hasn't been too bad for us Canes fans and I'm sure there are several fan bases that wouldn't mind changing shoes with us to experience what we've been privy to.  But to me, its not always about missing the playoffs but how they miss them and the Canes have come up with some very creative and brutal ways to miss the playoffs. 

 

Sometimes I think it would be better for them to either be really bad or be really good. If they're bad there's no false hope and if they're good, that can make the fans feel more secure. Unfortunately in order to have really good and really bad teams, someone has to be that bubble team.  I think people are just tired of being that bubble team that seems to have no direction.  IMO it makes the fans much more sensitive with the tendency to overreact to the good and bad.

 

Your welcome for my unprofessional and unsolicited therapeutic evaluation of our fan base ~ free of charge :)

 

I love it when someone cares that much to go to all that research!  Well done.  Call me greedy but I like to have the Red Wings success in Carolina.

They are the exception to the rule, feel free to call me greedy too ;)

Edited by TSA

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Thanks hag, that is interesting.

 

As you alluded in your OP, I think a stat that would be go a long ways towards explaining franchise fan satisfaction would need to factor in how far a team got each year.  Without giving it much thought, here's a "straw man" starting point:

 

1st round loss = 1 

1st round win = 2

2nd round win = 3

Conference champ = 4

Stanly Cup win = 5

 

I'm not sure about the scale; would you consider 5 years of first round exits equal to 1 Stanley Cup and 4 years of missing the playoffs?  Would you rather lose in the Conference finals every third year and miss the playoffs the other two or make it every year but exit in the first round?  I'm guessing that regular first round losses might prove to be pretty frustrating to a fan base as well.  Now that I think about it, perhaps the scale should be nonlinear with longer playoff runs rewarded more.  Thoughts?   

Edited by LakeLivin

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Thanks hag, that is interesting.

 

As you alluded in your OP, I think a stat that would be go a long ways towards explaining franchise fan satisfaction would need to factor in how far a team got each year.  Without giving it much thought, here's a "straw man" starting point:

 

1st round loss = 1 

1st round win = 2

2nd round win = 3

Conference champ = 4

Stanly Cup win = 5

 

I'm not sure about the scale; would you consider 5 years of first round exits equal to 1 Stanley Cup and 4 years of missing the playoffs?  Would you rather lose in the Conference finals every third year and miss the playoffs the other two or make it every year but exit in the first round?  I'm guessing that regular first round losses might prove to be pretty frustrating to a fan base as well.  Now that I think about it, perhaps the scale should be nonlinear with longer playoff runs rewarded more.  Thoughts?   

 

I think your scale is about right with one exception, I think a Cup win is worth a lot more that losing in the finals.  I loved our 2002 run but it didn't come close to being 20% worse than the win.  Cup win might be worth 8 on that scale.  Then I think it might be about right.

Now I may go back and compute the "LL Factor" since you invented it, not too much more work.

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I'll add this to the scale:

 

Winning the cup Game 7 in your own building.

 

1/30 teams would be in the position to host this game.

Series has to go to 7 games.

Home team has to win.

 

(Then add same playoffs ECF game 7 win at home).

 

Odds: who knows? but must be greater than 1:100.

 

Pretty pretty rare. Lots of points.

 

Then again, lots of momentarily spoiled fans (one goes by remkin).

Edited by remkin

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Our early franchise successes spoiled all of us.  (in reality we should be proud)

The reality is that half the teams do not make the playoffs each year,

and two or three teams in each conference make them every  year. So the

remaining 10 spots are being fought for by 24 teams. And there is some

parity in skill for 20 of those teams. In short, it is a dogfight ! Every year !

With the realignment we have stronger competition to adjust to as well, b/c

we added two western Conf. teams.

 

But we are ready with pitchforks every year (and we have had many very

close contests for playoff spots) to go after the coach, the GM, the owner,

a goalie, the Captain or other different players, etc. And because we are unhappy

about the playoffs we start complaining about ticket prices, parking fees,

food choice and cost, beverage selection-----you name it.

 

I am glad we have hockey here because I love the sport, the fun environment,

time with family and Caniac friends. I like the excitement of being at a game, and

some are very exciting in their own right, as a single game. Being there is not the

same as sitting home. Just like life in general, a hockey season has its highs and lows.

 

But I surely don't want our franchise to pack up and go anywhere because the fan base

gave up on them !!   End of rant !  :mellow:

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But we are ready with pitchforks every year (and we have had many very

close contests for playoff spots) to go after the coach, the GM, the owner,

a goalie, the Captain or other different players, etc. And because we are unhappy

about the playoffs we start complaining about ticket prices, parking fees,

food choice and cost, beverage selection-----you name it.

 

True.  We do have the pitchforks every year.  But this year they are sharper.

 

I think it has to do with expectations.  JR last year displayed some hubris by saying the team was set up for a deep run into the playoffs.  That didn't happen, so it hurt.  Then this year he spent to the cap and conveyed his shared expectations with us.

 

In a way, we are mourning with him, while still poking him with the pitchforks.

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But I surely don't want our franchise to pack up and go anywhere because the fan base

gave up on them !! End of rant ! :mellow:

 

 

Don't think the chances are there for the Canes moving now,  But Canes management needs to listen to the current level of discontent and do what it can to lessen that angst   There are some things over which it has no control such as coaching, players etc.  But there are plenty of things within its control such as season ticket pricing the pricing of concessions, parking, etc.

 

Before moving to a full season plan, I had a 26 game plan with a seat in the lower rows os 130.  With the new season ticket plan the "powers at be" have designated these seats as choice and have raised the prices over the rest of the section.  If I still had a seat in this section I would be more than ticked.

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True.  We do have the pitchforks every year.  But this year they are sharper.

 

I think it has to do with expectations.  JR last year displayed some hubris by saying the team was set up for a deep run into the playoffs.  That didn't happen, so it hurt.  Then this year he spent to the cap and conveyed his shared expectations with us.

 

In a way, we are mourning with him, while still poking him with the pitchforks.

 

:D   I think the fans are as bi-polar as the team, sometimes.

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:D   I think the fans are as bi-polar as the team, sometimes.

 

Don't forget tickets to the first and second round of the playoffs were included in the STH packages.   Was saving on FedEx expenses worth angering the hockey gods?

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There are some good points being discussed here.  Yes, we have been extremely lucky with the Stanley Cup victory and there are fans out there that would gladly trade places...but...you can't overlook the fact that over that 20 year period, there are only 4 teams in the league with a worse record of making the playoffs.  Two of those teams only have a 12 year history to work with.  This actually bumps the Canes down even lower.  Add this to the fact that this is in a developing hockey market, and you will get reductions in ticket sales and interest.  With where the team is in revenue, I can't rightfully expect the team to be at the top of the list, but is the middle of the list out of the question? 

Edited by super_dave_1

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There are some good points being discussed here.  Yes, we have been extremely lucky with the Stanley Cup victory and there are fans out there that would gladly trade places...but...you can't overlook the fact that over that 20 year period, there are only 4 teams in the league with a worse record of making the playoffs.  Two of those teams only have a 12 year history to work with.  This actually bumps the Canes down even lower.  Add this to the fact that this is in a developing hockey market, and you will get reductions in ticket sales and interest.  With where the team is in revenue, I can't rightfully expect the team to be at the top of the list, but is the middle of the list out of the question? 

 

While we all want to be in the upper echelon, I agree, middle is where I think a STH expects to be.  Certainly when the prices, parking, concessions continue to rise.

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If you really want to get down to brass tacks look up the number of GM's that still have jobs while missing the playoffs 5 years running during the period of the last 10 years.

 

There's only one.

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If you really want to get down to brass tacks look up the number of GM's that still have jobs while missing the playoffs 5 years running during the period of the last 10 years.

 

There's only one.

 

Well, we've had two coaches in that time. There are only two players left from that last playoff appearance (EStaal and Ward).  I guess the GM is just about all that is left to change.

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Added the LLFactor, and sorted by it, which I do think shows a better correlation to fan satisfaction.

 

 

Team                  Made Playoffs Missed Playoffs Made Streak Missed Streak Cups LLF             
--------------------- ------------- --------------- ----------- ------------- ---- --------
Detroit Red Wings     20            0               20 (22)     0             4    64
New Jersey Devils     17            3               13          1             3    49
Colorado/Quebec       14            6               11          3             2    39
Pittsburgh Penguins   16            4               9           4             1    37
Philadelphia Flyers   16            4               11          2             0    34
San Jose Sharks       16            4               9           2             0    30
Chicago Blackhawks    11            9               5           5             2    30
Boston Bruins         15            5               6           2             1    29
Dallas Stars          12            8               5           5             1    29
New York Rangers      11            9               4           7             1    27
Vancouver Canucks     14            6               5           4             0    26
Montreal Canadiens    13            7               4           3             1    26
Buffalo Sabres        12            8               5           3             0    24
St Louis Blues        15            5               12          3             0    23
Ottawa Senators       14            6               11          4             0    23
Anaheim Ducks          9            10              2           3             1    23
Toronto Maple Leafs   11            9               6           7             0    22
Los Angeles Kings      9            11              4           6             1    22
Washington Capitals   14            6               6           3             0    21
Hurricanes/Whalers     5            15              2           6             1    17
Tampa Bay Lightning    6            14              4           6             1    16
Phoenix/Winnipeg      10            10              5           6             0    12
Calgary Flames         9            11              5           7             0    12
Edmonton Oilers        7            13              5           7             0    12
Nashville Predators    7            7               4           5             0    9
New York Islanders     7            13              3           7             0    9
Florida Panthers       4            15              2           10            0    7
Minnesota Wild         4            8               2           4             0    6
Columbus Blue Jackets  1            11              1           7             0    1
Winnipeg/Atlanta       1            12              1           6             0    1

 

 

What else does this say?  Teams like St Louis, Ottawa, Capitals fall into the pack as they are pretty weak playoff teams, and you do get that sense of frustration from their fan bases.  Likewise the Canes and Tampa have been given a pass somewhat due to their propensity to go deep when they make it. 

Edited by hag65

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That's a pretty cool chart you put together there. I do agree with you that we may be slightly overreacting to missing the playoffs five years in a row. However, I don't think the 'Canes are close to contending for a playoff spot in the next five years with their current roster and prospect pool. Lindholm has underwhelmed this year. We have a three-headed goalie monster that needs to be fixed. Jim Rutherford has a lot of decisions to make this offseason. I personally vote for moving Ward to shore up our prospect pool and then sign a steady stay-at-home defenseman this offseason like Andrew MacDonald or Nikita Nikitin 

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when fans are sent the message the team does not make a profit unless it makes the playoffs what else can you expect but disappointment?

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records since olympic break:

 

Best post-Olympic win percentages

 

TeamGPWLTOTLPts.Win pct.Los Angeles Kings8710014.875Boston Bruins9710115.833San Jose Sharks8610113.813Colorado Avalanche8620012.750St. Louis Blues9620113.722Dallas Stars7520010.714Minnesota Wild7410210.714New Jersey Devils7520010.714Columbus Blue Jackets8520111.688Pittsburgh Penguins742019.643Toronto Maple Leafs8420210.625Philadelphia Flyers632017.583Anaheim Ducks622026.500Calgary Flames844008.500Chicago Blackhawks633006.500Detroit Red Wings733017.500Edmonton Oilers733017.500New York Islanders733017.500Phoenix Coyotes944019.500Winnipeg Jets722037.500Buffalo Sabres945008.444Montreal Canadiens834017.438New York Rangers834017.438Vancouver Canucks834017.438Washington Capitals834017.438Nashville Predators734006.429Ottawa Senators623015.417Tampa Bay Lightning824026.375Carolina Hurricanes936006.333Florida Panthers826004.250

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Pretty much sums it up canes-in-7. They came out of the break and spit the bit.

 

And I'm assuming that counts the two in a row we just won too.

 

 

 

Of course the other interesting thing about that list aid all of the Eastern Conference teams we are "competing" with that are falling too.

 

Tampa, Ottawa, Washington, NYR, MTL, Winnipeg Detroit. All .500 or worse.

 

Makes me want to  :kleenex: .

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TSA has it pretty much on the spot! 

It's not so much that they have missed the playoffs, but in how they've done it and how they've played in those seasons....

 

Mr. Murphy of "Murphy's Law" really loves to pound us into the sand sometimes (Boston's 3 SHGs on the same PP....twice losing the last game of the season to be eliminated.....Cam being oft-injured from being overworked to make up for horribly putrid defenses.....those we've traded coming back to kick us in the teeth, et. al.)

 

And to top it off is the fleecing from steadily rising ticket, concession, and parking prices. 

 

I wouldn't trade the '02 finals and the especially the '06 Cup for anything, and I understand sometimes not making it.  But geez, we fans do have a reasonable expectation to be a consistent contender and not have to chew our nails every March and April.

The feeling now amongst the boards makes me think of the opening of Rush's song "Witch Hunt"....look it up lol

 

I've been a fan since Greensboro, wore my jersey in Iraq and the Wrigley Winter Classic, and have seen them play on the road in DC, NY, Nashville, Dallas, and even Vancouver.

 

Let's get back to "The Way We Were!"

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As a Whaler fan from Connecticut, maybe I can provide some perspective. Your team, which was once our team, has gone to the SCF twice and one the Cup once. We never got close to that in Hartford. The Whalers were on a 6-year playoff drought when the move happened.

I paid $25 each for tickets to the last Whaler game that I atteneded in 1997. They were 3 rows from the top. I checked StubHub recently and found Hurricanes tickets available for less than $10 now. You have no right to complain about the expense, we pay almost that much to go to a high school game.

Yes, the team hasn't done well lately. Well, boo-hoo. We went through that here, too. We would have given almost anything to see the Whalers win a Cup.

Remember also that small markets like Hartford and Raleigh cannot protest poor performance by staying away. Boston and Chicago both had a lot of lean years when fans stayed away. But those teams were never going to move. Smaller market teams will blame their fans and cities for poor attendance and that can lead to relocation.

Bottom line is this, you have an NHL team in your area, and tickets are available dirt cheap. Complain all you want, but that's great thing as far as I'm concerned.

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