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hopper915

2014 NHL Draft/ Canes pick #7

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PREDICTION: Francis will make a splash at this years draft with some deals we aren't expecting. Things are too quiet, just have a feeling.

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I started wanting Ehlers or Vitanen....still want Ehlers or Virtanen.  I like Virtanen's size and physicality, but Ehlers speed is rediculous!  The choice would come down to information we do not have such as personal interviews and the like.

 

I think we are going to take Nylander...and it might turn out to be the steal of this draft!

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Chip Alexander @ice_chip  ·  54m

GM Ron Francis says he does not foresee Canes making any major trades during the NHL draft.

 

Disappointing. I hope we make some trades even if they aren't "major".

 

Chip Alexander @ice_chip  ·  1h

While saying no major trades, Francis said Canes could potentially move down from 7th pick in first round. "I do not see us moving up.

 

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The problem I see with moving up is that the GMs in the top 5 are in the catbird seat. They know that if they do nothing but walk up to the podium they get a blue chipper. So the price is too high to move up. The consensus agreement on the top 5 guys is incredibly tight. 

 

Moving down...well if you're sitting at say #11 or 12 and you are salivating over big Ritchie or Virtanen or want to lock down that over the top offense of a Nylander....the lust works one way....up. So if Francis sees that after #5 it's a crap shoot, and you could actually get a better player at #11 than #7, maybe someone really has an strong desire for a particular player and will overpay to move up. Overall the consensus view on the 6-12 picks is looser than a belt after a Thanksgiving meal. There is none.

 

Then again, saying he doesn't see any major moves coming is a smart political and poker thing to say. Political because expectations of us super-fans is lowered. Poker because he doesn't appear anxious to his fellow GMs. 

 

The fact is, most GM's by far, simply step up and take their pick. It is the low risk thing to do. This is Francis' first draft, I'm not as sure he wants to make a big splash. I think he would love to involved Ward in a deal, but if that doesn't happen...probably just takes our picks as they come up.

Edited by remkin

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So NHL.com's three mock drafters have released their final mock drafts. 

 

The bottom line: the top 5 are set, but after that....loose followed by really loose.

 

Morreale and Hoffner have us on Ritchie. Kimmelman puts Ritchie at #8. So I guess in a way, his combination of size and potential are a consensus to almost certainly see him going 6-8. 

 

Vitanen going at 6 right above us is a definite theme of the latest mock drafters overall, and Kimmelman and Morreale both have him there, but Hoffner has him sliding to #9.

 

Kimelman puts us on Jared McCann. Almost universally picked by others closer to #20. 

 

Ehlers: 12, 13, 6  

Nylander: 11,9,12

Perlini: 10,8,11

Kapanen: 9,12,10

Fleury: 13,10. 8

 

So there is a loose consensus that Virtanen and Ritchie go in the top 8. 

 

After that...probably the names above, but as drafts always go, a couple from lower will get picked higher than expected. Especially if they are big guys.

 

So the betting man would have it go TOP 5. Then Virtanen to Vancouver and Ritchie to us. 

So it will almost definitely not happen that way.

 

JR would have picked Nylander or Ehlers. I predict that. Ha! Can't prove me wrong!

Edited by remkin

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Rem, i love how  you are so into this,     kuddos to you!     Rem for  Carolina  Hurricanes  scout!

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Gotta find something! 

 

I am excited about it since we are picking pretty highly. 

 

This is the time I lament not finding a couple more losses last year, but not to open that can of worms!

 

 

Outside of picking highly, Francis' first draft, and the absolute unpredictability of who should go #7 makes it interesting. Then there's always the outside chance of a trade. 

 

When the recent past is bleak, look to the future!  :beach:

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Watching NHL Network and their Mock Draft.

They have us taking Ritchie at #7.

 

Did they have Vancouver taking Virtanen?

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Did they have Vancouver taking Virtanen?

 

Yup. If I remember correctly, here is their line up:

1. Florida: Ekblad

2. Buffalo: Reinhart

3. Oilers: Bennet

4. Calgary: Dal Cole

5. Islanders: Draisaitl

6. Vancouver: Virtanen

7: Carolina: Ritchie

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Yup. If I remember correctly, here is their line up:

1. Florida: Ekblad

2. Buffalo: Reinhart

3. Oilers: Bennet

4. Calgary: Dal Cole

5. Islanders: Draisaitl

6. Vancouver: Virtanen

7: Carolina: Ritchie

I believe they had Bennet drafted #2, then Reinhart.

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This reminds me of Nich all over again.  If we do not draft Virt or Ritchie and go with some sort of finesse small forward.....  I am going to flip out.  Ritchie has a legit chance of making the team this year if he is drafted.

Edited by bluedevil58

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This reminds me of Nich all over again.  If we do not draft Virt or Ritchie and go with some sort of finesse small forward.....  I am going to flip out.

 

NIch looked good this year, but after watching Lindholm, I think we made the right long term choice.  If we end up regretting one, it might be Monohan...

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NIch looked good this year, but after watching Lindholm, I think we made the right long term choice. If we end up regretting one, it might be Monohan...

Was thinking the same thing. He, kind of like fleury, was considered the "safe" pick in his draft, and he kills it in Calgary.

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What could really throw things into an interesting place is if a team above us, especially in the top 5 goes for Ehlers or Nylander given their off the hook offensive  skill set. 

 

Say either at 4 or 5 they go Ehlers, and Vancouver is locked in on Virtanen...we get Dal Colle or even better Draisaitl. Long shot, but stranger things have happened. 

 

Or someone reaches for Fleury. Again, not likely, but if we somehow end up with anyone in the consensus top 5 pick now....bonus.

 

I know that the consensus on here is that we need size and I'm not in disagreement. My main concern about a guy like Nylander though is not his size, but will he play defense at all. Ehlers is size. But both of these guys have game breaking skill, so unlike some I would not be apoplectic if we picked one of them. 

 

At the end of it all, if we can't get a top 5 guy, and we pick at #7, I'd like Virtanen. The mocks have recently coalesced around Vancouver going Virtanen. So if it goes as planned we will pick from Ritchie, Nylander, Ehlers w/ a longshot of Fleury or Perlini.  Most have us on Ritchie. 

Edited by remkin

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Cory Pronman over at ESPN ranks the top 10 players at each skill set. Like everything else, this is one analyst's opinion, but I thought it was interesting to see something beyond just the general superlatives in most scouting reports.

 

Top 10 skaters
1. Jake Virtanen, RW, Calgary (WHL)
2. Josh Ho-Sang, RW, Windsor (OHL)
3. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
4. Adrian Kempe, LW, Modo (SHL)
5. Kasperi Kapanen, RW, KalPa (Liiga)
6. Sam Bennett, C, Kingston (OHL)
7. Haydn Fleury, D, Red Deer (WHL)
8. Brendan Perlini, LW, Niagara (OHL)
9. Julius Honka, D, Swift Current (WHL)
10. Roland McKeown, D, Kingston (OHL)

Virtanen is the best pure skater in the draft class, and that fact drives a lot of his overall value. The reason he sits right outside the top 10 on my overall draft board is because he doesn't have the well-rounded offensive tool kit of players like Ehlers or Bennett. Ho-Sang is an electric player, and when you combine his skating with his puck skills, it makes him one of the most fun players to watch in this class. Kempe is arguably the best skating Swede since Magnus Paajarvi.

Top 10 puck skills
1. William Nylander, RW, Modo (SHL)
2. Sonny Milano, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
3. Vladimir Tkachev, RW, Moncton (QMJHL)
4. Kevin Fiala, LW, HV71 (SHL)
5. Sam Bennett, C, Kingston (OHL)
6. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
7. Josh Ho-Sang, RW, Windsor (OHL)
8. Nikolai Goldobin, RW, Sarnia (OHL)
9. Jakub Vrana, RW, Linkoping (SHL)
10. Michael Dal Colle, LW, Oshawa (OHL)

Nylander's on a bit of an island in this category, followed by a tier of Milano and Tkackev. Vlad is on the small side (5-foot-8 and 163 pounds), and somewhat one-dimensional, which may prevent him from getting into the first-round discussion. Milano fed off of 2015 super-prospect Jack Eichel a little this season, but he made some of the more creative plays of anyone in the draft class during the games I saw him in person.

Top 10 overall hockey IQ
1. Sam Reinhart, C, Kootenay (WHL)
2. Aaron Ekblad, D, Barrie (OHL)
3. William Nylander, RW, Modo (SHL)
4. Leon Draisaitl, C, Prince Albert (WHL)
5. Kevin Fiala, LW, HV71 (SHL)
6. Sam Bennett, C, Kingston (OHL)
7. Michael Dal Colle, LW, Oshawa (OHL)
8. Kasperi Kapanen, RW, KalPa (Liiga)
9. Sebastian Aho, D, Skelleftea (SHL)
10. Nikita Scherbak, RW, Saskatoon (WHL)
 

Sam Reinhart finds himself atop the rankings for hockey IQ and playmaking ability.

Hockey sense is the trait that correlates the best to overall prospect value, as can be seen by comparing this top 10 to my overall board. Bennett never appears at the top, but is always in the mix of the major categories. Reinhart is the clear best in this draft class in terms of pure hockey IQ, and then the next group is pretty close. Ekblad is smart in a different way from the forwards; he's not an exceptional passer or an ultra-creative puck handler, but he makes a ton of good plays, is always in the right position and finds ways to push the puck in the right direction. Aho is really advanced for an 18-year-old, showing the ability to take a regular SHL shift right into the postseason.

Top 10 playmakers
1. Sam Reinhart, C, Kootenay (WHL)
2. Leon Draisaitl, C, Prince Albert (WHL)
3. William Nylander, RW, Modo (SHL)
4. Sam Bennett, C, Kingston (OHL)
5. Lucas Wallmark, C, Lulea (SHL)
6. Michael Dal Colle, LW, Oshawa (OHL)
7. Ivan Barbashev, C, Moncton (QMJHL)
8. Kasperi Kapanen, RW, KalPa (Liiga)
9. Kevin Fiala, LW, HV71 (SHL)
10. Nikolaj Ehlers, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)

The top two constitute a tier, and it was very close between them. Draisaitl is a bit more of a creative and quick-reaction type of passer, but I went with Reinhart at No. 1 because of his patience, anticipation and overall vision. Wallmark -- who was passed over in the 2013 draft -- would be a first-rounder on my board if his skating wasn't below average (and if he didn't have health issues in his past). He manned the top power-play unit for Sweden's under-20 team as an 18-year-old, playing a premier playmaking role. Barbashev is a good all-around player, but stands out the most when setting up his teammates.

Top 10 physical games
1. Aaron Ekblad, D, Barrie (OHL)
2. Nick Ritchie, LW, Peterborough (OHL)
3. Hunter Smith, LW/RW, Oshawa (OHL)
4. Haydn Fleury, D, Red Deer (WHL)
5. Alex Tuch, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
6. Ryan Collins, D, USNTDP (USHL)
7. Alex Peters, D, Plymouth (OHL)
8. Alexis Vanier, D, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL)
9. Nikita Tryamkin, D, Yekaterinburg (KHL)
10. Aaron Haydon, D, Niagara (OHL)

The man-child Ekblad was an easy call to put at the top, especially since he has already excelled at using his considerable bulk as part of his defensive duties. Ritchie has a very good power game because of his size-strength combo (6-3, 235 pounds) and his aggressiveness. I have Smith as more of a middle- to late-round pick, but he's a giant at 6-6, 209 pounds; on the other hand, he may just end up as a face-puncher at the NHL level. Fleury, Tuch and Collins aren't always as physical as a guy like Peters, but they use their frames well to win battles.

Top 10 shots
1. Nick Ritchie, LW, Peterborough (OHL)
2. Jake Virtanen, RW, Calgary (WHL)
3. Aaron Ekblad, D, Barrie (OHL)
4. Jared McCann, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
5. Michael Dal Colle, LW, Oshawa (OHL)
6. Brendan Perlini, LW, Niagara (OHL)
7. Alexis Vanier, D, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL)
8. Nikolai Goldobin, RW, Sarnia (OHL)
9. Kasperi Kapanen, RW, KalPa (Liiga)
10. Brett Pollock, C, Edmonton (WHL)

There isn't a player this year who has a shot that would blow you away like Nail Yakupov's was in his draft season (2012). However, I do see a top group of five to seven players who stand out in this area. I admit this tool is one of the hardest to scout, because it's an ability that can only be truly appreciated with a large sample size of viewings of a player. By comparison, when we look at skating, it's easier to see whether a prospect is fast or slow. Ekblad's shot is obviously good in a different way from the forwards, as he has a great slap shot that he gets through traffic with accuracy. The top few forwards are there because of their wristers for the most part, as well as the ability to score from midrange or farther without significant screens.

Edited by LakeLivin

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Awesome stuff Lake! Of course just makes is muddier. But still great stuff to chew on.

 

Observation #1: Nyyyyyyylaaaaanddderr. #1 puck skills, #3 IQ #3 playmaker. Might go ahead of us. 

 

Observation: #2: Fleury. #7 skater (including forwards), #4 physical game. Not a bad combo for a Dman.

 

Observation #3: Ehlers: #3 skater, #6 puck skills, #10 playmaker.

 

Observation #4: Ritchie #1 shot, #2 physical game.

 

Obsevation #5: Kapanen is on a lot of those lists.

 

Observation #6: My boy Virtanen: #1 skater, #2 shot, no other lists.

 

I got more, but that's enough. 

 

Somehow I am finding this draft more interesting than others. 

Edited by remkin

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