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hopper915

2014 NHL Draft/ Canes pick #7

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Excellent article on the importance of the draft.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/6/27/5845256/nhl-draft-2014-analysis-luck

 

Very interesting stuff. Also shows the importance of draft order.  Top 10 picks key. Middle-late first rounders important. Second rounders drop off a lot. 

 

I am sure that it is a rough line down from #1 pick to about mid second round. Even our best second round hit Faulk, was a HIGH second rounder: pick #37. 

 

That said, what I also found interesting was the plateau from second round to third round. I'd bet a lot that it really starts flattening out after about the top 10 of the second round all the way through the third round. 

 

But what strikes me is that their data suggest we should be getting about 1 in 3 third rounders to 100 NHL games. Bowman makes the recent numbers look good, but he hasn't really panned out that well. 

 

3rd Round History:

 

2004 Casey Borer. Smooth skater, had a shot, got hurt in that bus accident.

2005: Joe Barnes. miss

2006: Harrison Reed. miss

2007: Bowman: pushing 200 NHL games, but not really notable

2008: No Pick: traded.

2009: Mattias Lindstrom. miss.

2010: Danny Biega: #7 of that round: too soon to tell, has potential

2010: Austin Levi: big guy, but in Florida so....

2011: Keegan Lowe: too soon to tell

2012: Daniel Altshuller: goalie: so far so good but too soon to tell

2103: Brett Pesce New Hampshire: 19 yo. Dman. too soon to tell

2014: Warren Foegle: just picked.

 

Overall so far not much out of that round at the NHL level. Just Bowman. 

 

Of course guys from 2010 on, still in the running...

Edited by remkin

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SD, I have to agree. After second round, Bellemore, Bowman....Terry?..... 

 

We've got several guys drafted late:

 

Bowman 3rd round

Dwyer 4th round

Sekera 3rd round

Harrison 3rd round

Lotkionov 5th round

JML 5th round

Khudoben 7th round

Bellemore 6th

 

But outside of Bellemore/Bowman someone else drafted all of them.

 

While it's true that the lower round picks themselves have around a 15% chance of playing 100 NHL games, as a group, rounds after the second should produce one player per year that plays 100 NHL games. 

 

Thus from rounds 3 and down collectively, each draft class as a group should produce one NHL player.  I don't think we've done that.

 

Further, the ones that we have produced have not been notable....we should have produced at least a couple surprises from our drafts to at leaf the level of JML or Dwyer, let alone Sekera or Khudoben. 

 

My guess is that finding those diamond in the rough guys is what that big scouting staff that some other teams have, produces. 

 

Late round picks to tend to take longer to make it to the NHL, so our last 5 drafts or so could still surprise....

Edited by remkin

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