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hopper915

2014 NHL Draft/ Canes pick #7

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Remind me how that point system works again. 

 

Edit: NVM Rem, I found this.  Ha ha, now what your saying makes sense.  I was lost.

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

 

That's it! Good to make some sense now and then, though I don't want to make a habit of it.

 

Basically they baked in historical trades and came up with the value of each pick relative to other picks.

 

Somewhere I read that GM's refer to something like this when making draft day trades, but I'm not 100% on that one.

 

 

 

I am amazed at the degree of the drop off from #1 to #2. 

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since its this years draft and not next years im on the bandwagon that we could  trade a pick for a decent pick up  the end result is i want josh ho-sang for the canes ,  but at 7th we should try and get at least nylander or ritchie  when it all comes down to it .  

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Just throwing a thought out there....teams moving up and down the draft, especially in the top 5 doesn't happen often, but...

 

According to the point system referenced. The price in theory of us moving up to #4 would be almost exactly our second round pick at #37.  I doubt that the Flames would do it, but if they suddenly had a burning desire for say a Nylander, you never know.

 

So why would we consider giving up our second rounder to move to 4? Well w/ the cupboard a bit bare in the minors, we may not (although we do have McGin and possibly Kidsky in the wings). But just for fun....

 

There are two levels of general consensus in the mock drafts: Ekblad and Reinhardt go 1-2, and Bennett, Draisaitl, and Dal Colle round out the top 5. Last year did not follow the right order, but the top 5 were the top 5. 

 

A. Assuming that Ekblad and Reinhardt go 1-2 or 2-1, then we would end up picking between the two remainders of Bennett, Dal Colle, and Draisaitl. Dal Colle is tall and can fill out his frame, but to me Bennett and Draisaitl are both worth the move up. Draisaitl is actually pretty big at 6'1" 208.

 

Draisaitl: High hockey IQ, impressive skater, powerful good shot, playmaker, tenacious in the corners: 105 pts in 64 games.

 

Bennett: Fantastic playmaker, dominates on PP, polished 2 way game, clutch, compared to J. Toews. 

 

B. Anything can happen above us at 4. Last year consensus of consensuses Jones, dropped to #4. GM's mostly love forwards. They are the sexy picks.

 

Ekblad is mostly regarded as a franchise dman, but not higher regarded than Jones was. Some GM's don't have him that highly regarded (not that he isn't a very good player, but not all have him as a franchise level dman).

 

Reinhardt: The consensus #2 pick, is dropped to #5 by the most recent mock listed on DC sports mock database, and #4 in another one.

 

Reinhardt is a super playmaker with elite hockey sense and probably doesn't drop, but #4 is not that big of a drop.

 

 

If we could land a franchise dman, which could happen at #4 but will NOT at #7. Oh boy. It may take a couple of years but this year's pick is unlikely to contribute a lot year one anyway.

 

But even if not we would get one of: Reinhardt, Bennett, or Daisaitl (or Dal Colle).  

 

 

What of the second rounder? Yes that would be a loss. It is a high second rounder and we've actually done pretty well with those of late. Justin Faulk comes mainly to mind....but on balance probably a 1 in 3 chance that player works out on average. 

 

 

Not that Calgary would make that move. But if they would.....I'd strongly consider it.

 

 

Then trade them Cam for their first rounder next year....one can dream.

Edited by remkin

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Moving up (into the top-5) isn't worth it, IMO.  Particularly with the 7th and the 37th pick already in hand.  That's why it rarely happens.

 

And these mock drafts, jebesus.  We are undersized and way too thin on right wing organizationally.  How hard is it for these guys to look this stuff up?

 

However, to be fair, the top of the draft is thin there, so that could explain a lot.

 

But, looking at Ritchie, he's listed most places as a left wing, but looking at his highlights, he seems to be on his off-wing (right side) in most of those clips.

 

Still leaning to Ritchie as my guy, assuming he's still there, but I really, really like Virtanen as well.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Yeah, very unlikely to happen.

 

Just that getting more of those special players is key. 

 

Seems like at 4 we get Draisaitl or Bennett, both seem more complete and higher likelihood to be very solid top 6 or top 3. Nylander awesome, but smallish and Skinner like on D. Ritchie, definitely the type of guy we need, but not quite as eye popping offensively as Draisaitl or Bennett. Then there's always the chance that Ekblad drops like Jones and other past Dmen have....

 

As you mention, it is unusual. Most GM's just step up and make their pick. We probably do too. Though if the deal were there....would I take it? Maybe.

Edited by remkin

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If we were to move to number 4 I'd want Draisaitl considering that Ekblad and Reinhardt woulld probably be gone by then.  If we stay at number 7 I am hoping for Vertanen as my 1st choice followed closely by Ritchie.  I feel we need a Cole like power forward back on the team.  We have not had one who made as big of an impact since Cole left.  In his prime, he was one of my favorite players on the team. Loved the way he would drive to the net and He finished with a score a lot of those times or at least put it where a rebound could be knocked in by whomever was following him up.

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Both good choices DG, and Ritchie reminds me a lot of Cole, who was a guy who could play left or right, but was most effective on the right side for us. 

 

And Rem, it's time for a prediction.  ;)

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And Rem, it's time for a prediction.  ;)

 

Never. Predictions just get me into hot water. Then again...

 

OK.

 

We will not trade the pick. Those above us will ask too much. We will try to trade Ward before the draft. Possibly in a deal to get a first round draft pick either this year or next. 

 

Too soon to pick which player we take because at #7 it could be any number of up 7-8 guys and in this range guys tend to rise and fall a bit. But then again.....maybe I will.

 

Francis is hard to read too. If I'm not mistaken he wants guys who put team first, work hard, and are fast, oh and if all else is even, big. OK, when is the last time a GM said, "What I really want is a guy who puts himself above the team, gives some effort some of the time, and is slow. Ideally he would be tiny if all else is equal."

 

Seems to me that the closest thing to this is Virtanen, w/ Ritchie right there. But the question is "all else is even"? That's where the Canes have gone in the past. By this point (#7), a lot of times all else is not even. The big skilled guys are gone. The small skilled guys still there. Ritchie has the package but to what level? His numbers a good but not eye popping. Virtanen has all the tools, but also has not produced at the Junior level like a #7 pick. These guys fill out the check list of things we're looking for on here, but...

 

Can you pass on Nylander? Listed by one scout as a "generational talent". An "artist on the ice", a "crowd pleaser" by another. Basically in some ways another Skinner-type, not big, shoot first, not strong defensively. This is the guy JR would not pass on if he's sitting there at #7.  Should we put out a team of exceptional skill and worry about "big" later? Or do we fill out team need?

 

At this point I am thinking Francis wants some size and toughness, and team need trumps pure talent. Ritchie fits that bill. I'm not saying he is not talented. But he is not the super skilled guy that Nylander is. Then again, Virtanen seems to have such serious tools and blazing speed, and Francis mentioned "you have to have speed" where size was "if all else is equal". But all else is not entirely equal. Ritchie is having dominant games, and reportedly has a great work ethic. Also Ritchie reportedly has some speed. I guess I'm saying that it seems Ritchie is a more completely ready version of himself, while Virtanen has perhaps even higher upside, but it seems more in the form of potential than presently there.

 

I heard a quote on NHL XM last night about a different NHL player, and which I might be getting wrong but fits Ritchie.."he drives hard to the net and arrives in ill-humor." Isn't that exactly what we need?

 

If I had to predict it would be Ritchie if Vancouver doesn't take him. Just seems like the kind of guy we need to balance our team out. We really don't have a guy like that, and they are hard to find.

 

so I'd probably see us taking Ritchie if he is there and Virtanen if Ritchie goes at #6. But that is right now.

Edited by remkin

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On the smallish player thing, you just can't go that route year after year. The Canes can not continue to draft without taking size and grit into consideration.

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since its this years draft and not next years im on the bandwagon that we could  trade a pick for a decent pick up  the end result is i want josh ho-sang for the canes ,  but at 7th we should try and get at least nylander or ritchie  when it all comes down to it .  

Cff, I keep seeing you mention Ho-Sang's name, and I am curious what it is about him that seems to intrigue so much? I don't follow these prospects like many of you seem to do, so i haven't studied them at all, but I really would like to learn about him.

 

Also, if we were able to have Ritchie, Vantanen, Nylander(since you've mentioned him altho I don't think we should add another smallish guy) or this Ho-Sang fellow to choose from at our spot, whom would you want most?

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Ho-Sang is boom or bust. He's certainly skilled but there is risk there as well. He has a lack of discipline and lapses in the defensive zone at times. I don't see him being intriguing to the Canes at all.

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So DC sports just linked another gaggle of mock drafts: 6 more. 1 of them was all over the place and had Ehlers at #50, so while they may be the only ones to be right on their picks, I'll throw them out.

 

These mocks have us on:

 

Ehlers

Ritchie

Kapanen (2)

Dal Colle

 

The one I dismissed and the one that has us taking Dal Colle, both slightly broke up the top 5, but mostly it remains in tact.

 

After number 5 these things just break down and jump all over the place. Prospective picks for us and their rankings:

 

Ehlers: 7,8,6,5,9.

Ritchie: 7,8,8,8,14

Vertenan: 6,9,10,8,10

Kapanen: 7,7,9,15,11

Nylander: 6,10,11,6,6

 

Of these guys Ehlers and Nylander seem to be moving up (one has Ehlers breaking the top 5).

 

Most mocks either have us reaching for Kapanen or dropping him back to 9-15 range.

 

So, the bigger guys (Ritchie and Vertenan) are consistently below us if we don't take them, so who, of the NON TOP 5, are getting love in the 6 slot? (Ritchie did go 6 in one mock).

 

Nylander (3)

Ehlers (2) 

 

 

All of this adds up to a whole lot of uncertainty. We have consistently been put on 7 different players. 

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I have a hard time getting wrapped up in any mock drafts for any sport. One crazy pick/trade and the whole board's changed.

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Yeah, they definitely are of limited prognostic value, especially as one goes downward on the board. 

 

The ones that kill me are the ones that do more than one round. 

 

But they are helpful to get a feel for the general picture. They tend to get the vague groupings mostly right when taken en mass. But nailing each team's pick? Not so much.

 

But since the teams themselves keep things so close to the vest, it's something to do to try to get some feel for who we might get or want.

Edited by remkin

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Watched the World's, USA vs. Germany, and Draisaitl had an impressive game. Big body who skates fairly well and obviously has some skill. He looked close to NHL ready to me but it was just one game (that I've seen).

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This years draft is considered week in terms of depth, but it is fairly strong at the top.  Ekblad, Reinhart, Bennett, Draisaitl, Dal Colle, and Ehlers all have the potential to be franchise players.  Of coarse they are all not going to become franchise players.  Look at the top of any year's draft and you will see misses.  Statistically, one of these guys is going to be a dissapointment and three of them will never reach their full projection. 

 

After these six picks, and many people feel that Nylander is in this group, their are other very skilled players that could become terrific players.  They are all missing something from their resumes that keep them from the top.  Nylander is not know to play much defense and does not have the experience on North American ice.  Kapanen was injured and missed the WJC that could have been a show case.  He also lacks experience on North American Ice and their is some controversy about his size (will be resolved at the combine). Ritchie has the size and toughness that teams really covet, but he has not put up the kind of offense the top prospects have produced, was not that great in the playoffs, lacks top level competition (WJC), and there are some concerns about his weight.  Virtenan is just about a repeat of the description of Ritchie, but he is considerable faster and his size is prototypically "power forward".  He is probably the guy with the most potential to develop into much more than he is now.

 

Nobody else should even be looked at unless we trade down or otherwise acquire a later pick.  The Hurricanes have a very thin prospect pool and should take the best player available.  I know we all want size and toughness right now, but these kids are not going to provide that for several years, even if they make the team right away.

 

With all that being said, here is my updated draft list (I know everybody is so excited and loves my opinions):

 

1.   Ekblad

2.   Draisaitl (I know I am going to hear about this one, but look at his numbers against high level competition!)

3.   Reinhart

4.   Bennett

5.   Dal Colle

6.   Ehlers

7.   Virtanen

8.   Ritchie

9.   Nylander

10. Kapanen

 

 

I think we are going to get a very talented player.  I would say at 7, we have no chance at Ekblad, Reinhart, and Bennett; but any of the others could be there when we pick!

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