Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
hopper915

2014 NHL Draft/ Canes pick #7

Recommended Posts

We have blown our first round pick before, but that doesn't seem to be as big a deal as our performance in the other 6 rounds.  My buddy did some analysis of recent drafts and you guys can correct me if I'm wrong, but the only players to truly pan out into a upper role (top 6 forward or top 4 D) that weren't first rounders over the franchise history since the move to Carolina were Cole and Faulk.

 

Picking in the 2nd through 7th rounds is crap shooting, we all know this, success in these rounds is difficult.  However, you have to hit sometimes!  One player a year is not going to cut it.  This points to subpar scouting at a minimum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only other name I might add there would be Niclas Wallin, drafted in 2000 in the 4th round.  He wasn't a top-4 defenseman but he was steady enough to be a good serviceable player here and was a big part of winning the Cup.

 

Drafting has to be given more attention moving forward.  It's just beyond my explanation why the Canes haven't put more into this part of the organization.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess you could call Jamie McBain a bit of a success. He played enough games to get packaged and bring Sekera. Which to me is a nice example of a key trade that leveraged a draft pick and upgraded the team.

 

One could point to Bellemore if he improves some. 

 

Personally I have a lot of hope for McGinn. 

 

But that said, it is true, while lower rounds don't produce many good player as a percentage, we should be hitting more than we have been. Those are also the rounds where bigger scouting staffs pay off, and ours is miniscule.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The only other name I might add there would be Niclas Wallin, drafted in 2000 in the 4th round.  He wasn't a top-4 defenseman but he was steady enough to be a good serviceable player here and was a big part of winning the Cup.

 

Drafting has to be given more attention moving forward.  It's just beyond my explanation why the Canes haven't put more into this part of the organization.

But it has been given a lot more attention for the past four years, ever since JR replaced Ferguson with McDonald and canned Stefan, Horner and Marois.

 

If you exclude JR's move trading up to get Staal, we actually had more notable prospects getting drafted in the past four years than we had in the 12 years under Ferguson combined.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But it has been given a lot more attention for the past four years, ever since JR replaced Ferguson with McDonald and canned Stefan, Horner and Marois.

 

If you exclude JR's move trading up to get Staal, we actually had more notable prospects getting drafted in the past four years than we had in the 12 years under Ferguson combined.

 

The point I was trying to make is relative to the other teams in the league, the Canes don't put (or employ) as much emphasis into drafting.

 

Your right to point out it's been a better over the short-term though, but that's still up in the air how much more.  I kind of include the college UFA guys in there as well.

 

Hey, Stefan was canned again - as goalie coach - and put back on the scouting staff.  Go figure. :lol:  Do the Canes just have a problem letting some of these guys go?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll buy into the drafting and development getting better when I see the results make it to the NHL.  The Canes have been okay with the low hanging fruit in the 1st and the top half of the 2nd.  After that, not so much.  Now the odds would say that those lower round picks have a much lower probability of making the NHL.  But using the "even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally" idea, shouldn't the Canes be able to stumble onto that nut once in a while in the non-top two rounds?  Add a little actual skill and scouting and maybe it could even approach average.  The cup board is bare in Charlotte, and it doesn't get that way from the drafting getting better in the last 2 or 3 years.

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another 5 mock drafts compiled. 

 

Nylander continues to get some top 5 love. 2 put him at #5, and 2 put him on us at #7. (one puts him at 12 then says it's extremely unlikely he falls that far. Then why drop him that far?).

 

Ehlers also getting more love: One has us taking him. Two have him going ahead of us at #6. One at 8 and 1 at 9. One mock drafter said he's the guy people will look back on a few years from now and wonder how he fell below #2.

 

Ritchie is all over the place: 4,6,8,9,10. Everyone loves his size/skill combo, but first step speed a concern. I've heard some say that big power forwards often don't pan out. He is definitely bumped up on size/physical....is he more of a mid first round talent in a big physical body, or is he the real deal?

 

Virtanen generally falls a bit with the injury: 8,8,9,10,14. But still the most pure physical and skating skill per most mock drafters. Could we trade down and still get him due to the injury?

 

Kapanen: 7,8,10,15,11*.  Again the one that puts us on him basically says it's because his father played here. I just don't see him as a #7 level talent, and unless I hear more, I'd be a bit bummed if we pick him at 7. *one drafter only listed top 10 and he wasn't on the list, so could be lower than 11.

 

Fleury: 12,13 by all. This is the almost unanimous consensus #2 dman in the draft and almost everyone has him going around #12. Not the year to draft D if you don't have the #1 pick. Again, I say, consider a trade down, pick up whoever on this list is still there and pick up another piece in addition.

 

One drafter has us getting Dal Cole, which would be huge, but all others have him in the top 5.

 

So continued movement up for Nylander and Ehlers. Ritchie/Vertanen big range. Top 5 still in tact on average.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

THe more video I watch, the more I think we should take Ehlers.  He is the fastest prospect in quite awhile!  Draft him, send him back to Juniors for two more season, play him for a season or two in the AHL so he can continue to develop, and then you have an absolute offensive force!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another bolus of mock drafts doesn't clear much up. 

 

People keep wanting to put us on Kapanen, always the Dad connection.

 

Nylander is really solidly becoming the next guy after the top 5 on average.

 

Perlini is solidly around #9, in the neighborhood.

 

Virtanen 9-14 range.

 

Ritchie: 5,8.10

 

Ehlers: 4-11  huge range.

 

 

Clear as mud. 

 

In general the top 5 stay the same with a few shaking one guy out for fun, and Nylander solidly one of the first two alternatives to the top 5, and the #2 defenseman (Fleury) keeps getting slotted around #12. So they're predicting the Dman #1, then 10 plus forwards in a row.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The mocks are flowing.


 


5 more usable ones make things even muddier. 


 


Outside of the top 5, the only consistency is that Ehlers is really settling in at around #6. (6,5,6,8)* Only knock is that is his a small, slight guy. Not a great defender. Still his stock is way up.*(one has him much lower but that one has people all over the place).


 


After that it's anybody's guess.


 


Nylander's stock slipped in this latest gaggle, though one puts him at #4, otherwise 11,9,8,10. Knock: not a team player, not interested in defense. Not a huge guy.


 


We are pegged on: Virtanen: (2), Ritchie (2), Dal Colle (1). Dal Colle would be a huge steal, but every mocker seems to want to put one upset in their line up, and this one has us getting Dal Colle, but it's not likely.


 


Each mocker likes to push one not previously top 10 name up into the top 10. These included Tuch (8)  Point (9), Fiala (9).


 


Fleury is clearly a good D prospect and intriguing as a trade down guy, to me. One mocker has him going #3. Yikes, that is two now that have pushed him way up in the last month. Still most have him 9,10,10,12. Could we pick up another second rounder, trade down to say 10 and snag him?


 


So the offensive flair and huge offensive upside guys outside of the top 5 are smaller, offense only types: Ehlers, Nylander.


Virtanen is the pure physical package guy: speed, size, skill, but not eye popping numbers (good though) and of course the injury.


Ritchie is the big rugged physical go to the net guy with surprising skills, but not off the hook like Ehlers and Nylander.


Fleury would be the D man. Probably turn into a very solid NHL dman, but projected a bit below us (trade down?).


 


One of those names will probably be gone as well as the top 5: Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart, Dal Colle and Draisaitl.


 


Thus likely, if we do not trade up or down, we pick from whoever's left of:


 


Ehlers, Nylander, Ritchie, Virtanen. 


 


 


But everything under #6 is really fluid. So who knows?


 


 


I did notice that the premium goalie of the draft is Thatcher Demko of B.C. He has slipped out of the first round in some mocks. Would he be there at #37? Probably not, but what a steal that would be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

rem,  what are your thoughts on this Draisaitl?

 

Awesome. Got the whole package and probably ready to contribute in the NHL. Good size. Eye popping stats. Great playmaker. Hard to get the puck from. 

 

But this guy will NOT be there at #7. Write it down. NO WAY. (why am I doing this???). But really. He's the whole package. He is slated to go #4 or #5, but could easily go higher. 

 

Could we trade up for him? That would be the move to me, but it's so hard to actually do.

 

So, love him. If he somehow slipped to #7? Whooooboy! If I win the lottery today? Whooooboy. (Especially since I didn't play).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It might not be a total rebuild but it looks like Francis is still ready to deal..or at least look at offers

 

Chip Alexander @ice_chip  ·  4h

Ron Francis said Canes would be open to moving up or down in the first round of draft, depending on deals offered

 

This draft might be fun after all

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let the record show that I am on record supporting this move. Moving up or down for different reasons.

 

Moving up to get into the top 5 blue chippers. And if we could get to 3 or 4, we'd have an outside shot at Ekblad. (See last year's draft).

 

The blue-chippers are the top 5, with maybe Ehlers in at 6, but even that is not certain. Either way, we sit outside that.

 

We could trade down to #11 and be assured one of what I consider the next tier, say Ehlers goes 6:

 

Virtanen, Nylander, Ritchie, Fleury, Perlini. 

 

 

And get another second rounder, or as part of a bigger deal.

 

Frankly trading down, picking up a nice piece and landing Fleury would be pretty sweet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm still totally against taking Perlini. Could be a decent complementary player but was completely shut down the second half of the seasons when he was relied upon for creating offense. Doesn't play a power game like Ritchie or Virtanen and doesn't have the absolute skill of a Nylander/Ehlers. Just doesn't do a whole lot for me and I'm concerned because they chose to do a prospect profile on him, over Nylander and Ehlers.

 

Haydn Fleury has been connected to us a lot in mocks and I still think #7 is too high for him. He is the epitome of a safe pick. We need winger depth so much more than a decent D prospect.

 

Michael Dal Colle is my favorite player in this entire draft. He does everything. If the price was reasonable, I would move up in a heartbeat to 5/6 and take him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anaheim has 2 picks in the first round.

 

Our #7 and #37 for their #10 and #24 would work for me, and is a fair value when trading picks.

 

Of course, that's assuming Dal Colle is off the board.

 

Probably won't happen, and I'm just thinking out loud really.  I can't see us moving up with few expendable assets to sweeten the pot.

 

I wouldn't mind Fleury at all, but certainly not at #7.

 

I have no earthly idea who we will draft, and am just going to wait and see how it plays out.

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I tell you I was liking Virtanen, and both TSN mock drafts Button and McKenzie have him going 6, 8. But Button has him ranked at #43. His rankings are where he personally puts a player's value projected 3-5 years. Yikes. McKenzie does his based on talking w/ NHL scouts and GMs to gauge what they are likely to do. Pretty big discrepancy. Clearly Button agrees he'll go high, but doesn't agree he should. #43. Could easily get him w/ our second round pick if GM's agreed. Makes me pause a bit. 

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So we're getting close! More mocks. What do we learn? Relative group-think in the top 5. Slightly different order, but only one of the 6 new mockers disrupted the top 5 (one put Ritchie at 5, Draisatl at 6) so 29/30 top 5 stay the same. Of course anything can and will happen, but if you want a consensus blue chipper you need to be in the top 5: Ekblad, Reinhardt, Bennett, Draisaitl, Dal Colle. Ekblad is the near universal #1 pick, but then so was Jones last year. Draisatl's inter top 5 ranking seems to be climbing, two had him going #2.

 

So, any way, if we could not give up the moon and somehow get in the top 5? Nice. But seems unlikely. 

 

After that? There is a consensus "next five and one". But the only consensus on the order is that Perlini is at the bottom of that grouping: it's really the next 5 forwards, then Fleury settling in next. 

 

The next 5: Ritchie, Virtanen, Nylander, Ehlers, Perlini, though Perlini is consensus last of them, then Fleury.

 

Oddly the most agreement was at #7, where 3/6 have us taking Ritchie (one mocker actually puts Ritchie at #5). So 4/6 of the latest mock drafters have moved Ritchie up to 5,7,7,7. The other two 8,10. 

 

At #6, probably the second most intriguing pick to us (who does Vancouver remove from the "next 5"? Nylander (2), Ehlers (1), Virtanen (1), Kapenen (1), Draisaitl (1 clearly smoking something, and who put Ritchie #5). 

 

Kapenen continues to bounce all over the place. One had him #6, and one had him in the second round: 6,10,11,10,15, >30. If one relies on mock drafts (never a good thing) then stay away from him at #7. 

 

Of the next Five: here is their average scores in the rankings: (just a general overall feel). 

 

Ritchie: 7.3

Ehlers: 7.7

Nylander: 7.8 

Virtanen: 7.8

Perlini: 9.2

 

Really for these guys its' the next 4, then Perlini, then Fleury. 

 

The guy moving up the highest late: Ritchie. Size matters to the mockers.

 

Then:

 

Fleury: 11.2

 

and for those keeping score:

 

Kapanen: 16.5

 

 

Soooooo, based on this, at #7 we will take one of whomever Vancouver leaves for us of:

 

Ritchie, Vertanen, Nylander, Ehlers with an outside chance of Perlini (or Fluery if we want to reach for a dman).

 

The thing about our picks is that they all have a serious question mark that the top 5 don't seem to have.

 

Ritchie: fast enough? Will his dominance translate when he's not a man among boys anymore? Consistency?

Virtanen: mainly didn't put up eye popping numbers (especially assists, but still good numbers). Will his total offensive game develop to match his speed and physicality? Shoulder.

Nylander: will he play any defense? Good team player? Small

Ehlers: smaller than Nylander even. The word "slight" has been used.

Perlini: big and fast but not at all physical.

 

So, do we go with the off the hook offense? Ehlers, Nylander? Then we go small.

Do we go big? Ritchie, Virtanen? Then we have to hope the game translates to the NHL at top 6 numbers.

 

Do we trade up? Down? 

 

I like trading up for a top 5 blue chipper. I like trading down and picking from what's left of the next 5, Perlini or Fleury. 

 

Basically this is wide open from 6-10. And of course with offensive wizards like Ehlers and Nylander and the physical specimen that is Ritchie, who knows...a couple of top 5 teams could grab one of them and shake the whole thing up.

 

We really could pick any of 6 guys: Virtnanen, Ritchie, Ehlers, Nylander, Perlini, Fleury. 

 

Wide open.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...