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The most interesting pair of stats on hits to me:

 

#1 most hits by a team last year: LA Kings. Well there you go, gotta hit to win or be a good team...

 

NOT SO FAST JOHNSON!

 

#30 least hits by a NHL team last year: Chicago Blackhawks. 

 

When you eyeball the overall team hits list (and Kjun you just put yours in at this exact moment in my typing) there does not seem to be any kind of tight correlation w/ # of hits and success. 

 

The common explanation is that you basically hit people when you don't have the puck. So teams that have the puck all the time (Chicago, Detroit) end up lower on the hit parade. Also, ostensibly teams that hit less might play better positional defense.

 

Seems like hits, much like team face-off win % might be an overrated stat. Not unimportant, but way down the list of important. Though, it probably is a style and identity thing. There are teams that will beat you up and wear you down and that can work (LA) there are teams that will have the puck all the time and outshoot you to death and that has worked pretty well for Detroit and Chicago. 

 

The Canes were middle of the pack at #18. 

 

This may be one of the key elements in the "team identity" talk. I would suspect w/ Peters coming from Detroit, we are going to try to be more of a possession, positional defense team which I think suits our current players better. 

 

Personally, while I like a big hit as much as the next guy, I like puck possession and outshooting the other team to death more, especially w/ this team as it sits.

Edited by remkin

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Lake, alto not a "statistic man", your data are interesting? Not sure what, if anything to make of it, other than hits don't seem to correlate with making the playoffs? Am I not gleaning something?

 

What I wonder is, is there a difference of East v West? Ergo, does the western conference, as seems to be constantly speculated, lay more hits than here in the east, or have you analyzed that aspect? But, in my mind, if that is the case, than there cannot be an across the board comparison of all 30 teams, as there would be a playing style difference depending on which conference a team is in.

If you click on that link I provided and scan the full list you'll see that many more Western teams appear near the bottom of the list than near the top.  And yeah, to me it does appear that a high number of hits dores't correlate with wins, if anything perhaps the opposite.

 

The most interesting pair of stats on hits to me:

 

#1 most hits by a team last year: LA Kings. Well there you go, gotta hit to win or be a good team...

 

NOT SO FAST JOHNSON!

 

#30 least hits by a NHL team last year: Chicago Blackhawks. 

 

When you eyeball the overall team hits list (and Kjun you just put yours in at this exact moment in my typing) there does not seem to be any kind of tight correlation w/ # of hits and success. 

 

The common explanation is that you basically hit people when you don't have the puck. So teams that have the puck all the time (Chicago, Detroit) end up lower on the hit parade. Also, ostensibly teams that hit less might play better positional defense.

 

Seems like hits, much like team face-off win % might be an overrated stat. Not unimportant, but way down the list of important. Though, it probably is a style and identity thing. There are teams that will beat you up and wear you down and that can work (LA) there are teams that will have the puck all the time and outshoot you to death and that has worked pretty well for Detroit and Chicago. 

 

The Canes were middle of the pack at #18. 

rem, I still think it's probably more valid to look at away hits than total, but if you do look at total hits LA is 1st and Columbus is 2nd, but then 3 through 7 are Toronto, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Philly, and Phoenix, respectively.  Not exactly the cream of the NHL crop. :P

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Lake, altho I agree with your assertion "I can't see the Canes trying to add a piece now given that it would cost assets, etc", I, very much like last year, am hoping against hope that RF could come up with some ingenious way to add the "magical ingredient".

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Another thought on hits:  if a hit results in a takeaway, great.  But if not, it often temporarily takes a player from each team out of the play, turning the game briefly from a 5-on-5 to a 4-on-4, which would seem to significantly benefit the offense.  I wonder if that might be a dynamic behind the seemingly counter-intuitive statistics on hits vs. success?  As for the Kings, they are both very physical AND very fast.  I wonder if perhaps they are more successful in gaining the puck when they hit and/ or have sufficient speed to recover more often than other teams when they don't?    

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I can't see the Canes trying to add a piece now given that it would cost assets when they apparently didn't move hard on some of the free agents that stand a high chance of being a great value (imo) like Derek Roy, Stempniak, or Peter Mueller and that wouldn't have cost anything in return.

 

Just because we didn't sign any of those free agents doesn't mean we didn't persue any of them.  It takes two parties to make an agreement.  We would not look very attractive to any of those players.  We have not been making the playoffs and we don't seem to have any openings on the top lines.  I would think we would be a last resort destination right now.

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If you click on that link I provided and scan the full list you'll see that many more Western teams appear near the bottom of the list than near the top.  And yeah, to me it does appear that a high number of hits dores't correlate with wins, if anything perhaps the opposite.

 

rem, I still think it's probably more valid to look at away hits than total, but if you do look at total hits LA is 1st and Columbus is 2nd, but then 3 through 7 are Toronto, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Philly, and Phoenix, respectively.  Not exactly the cream of the NHL crop. :P

 

The problem with hits as a statistic is it doesn't reflect "effective hits".  I would define effective hits as those that take away puck possesion and those that lead to the opposing player avoiding hits at a later time, call it an intimidation factor. 

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The problem with hits as a statistic is it doesn't reflect "effective hits".  I would define effective hits as those that take away puck possesion and those that lead to the opposing player avoiding hits at a later time, call it an intimidation factor. 

 

I would agree with that. When Ruutu first arrived the man could lay bone shaking hits. I can recall many opponent's rushing plays to avoid or limit those hits, and clearly remember changes in possession with us scoring on a few of them. 

 

It's not that teams shouldn't hit, but that the way the stats are kept is hard to read. I bet for an average team in hits, on a particular game, leading in hits "the stat" that game had either no or even negative bearing on winning, mainly because you hit more when the other guy has the puck and you're losing. 

Edited by remkin

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Just because we didn't sign any of those free agents doesn't mean we didn't persue any of them.  It takes two parties to make an agreement.  We would not look very attractive to any of those players.  We have not been making the playoffs and we don't seem to have any openings on the top lines.  I would think we would be a last resort destination right now.

Your point is very well taken, which is why I said "apparently" in my original post.  But here's why I question whether we went after any of these three: 

 

  • Derek Roy signed with Nashville for $1m.  Is Nashville so much more attractive than Carolina that maybe $1.5 wouldn't have lured him here for a year?
  • Peter Mueller signed with St. Louis on a two-way contract for $700k at the NHL level.  Granted, St. Louis is a much more attractive franchise w.r.t. winning.  But I've got to believe that Muellers primary goal this year is to prove his NHL chops and position himself favorably for free agency next year rather than contend for a cup. Wouldn't he have had an easier time doing with Carolina than with St. Louis?
  • Stempniak signed with the Rangers for only $900k.  Again, might more $ have lured him here?  I see this one as perhaps the least likely if Stempniak was primarily interested in a cup run, but who knows?  Again, a $1.5m contract has to look a hell of a lot better than a $900k one.

Roy made $4m last year and Stempniak $2.75m.  I'm wondering if RF didn't even really consider pursing either thinking that they would be out of range of any extra $ PK might put out?  Pure speculation here: I could envision PK maybe upping the payroll another $1-$1.5m to add another valuable piece but not much more than that based on the tone of his remarks this offseason.

 

Or maybe PK wasn't willing to pony up any more money at all.  I personally think such a stance would be a bit short sighted as I think any of the 3 players above might have been a big help to this years team, especially when injuries start to occur,  If we're competitive but just miss, and 1 of those players  would have put us over the top, I can't imagine $1.5m or so better spent.  On the other hand, I can't criticize PK if he wasn't willing to spend any more.  Looking at team payrolls, the only other small market team that I see outspending the Canes is Tampa Bay (http://www.capgeek.com/).    

Edited by LakeLivin

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A lot has been speculated about the PK budget.  I really wish there would be more transparency which would help diehard fans understand moves/non-moves.  There is no harm in sharing this information now that the major part of FA is past.  I get not sharing that info in July.  

 

However, PK should know as a businessman that you can only pinch the budget so much.  If you want profits to grow, you must increase the top line, revenue.  For that to happen in sports, you have to put a product on the ice people are willing to pay to see.  He loosened the pursestrings a few years ago and we made some moves.  Unfortunately, we are now saddled with some terrible long-term deals.  But, if the team is not losing money, I would hope that he would press forward until we find that right formula.  The money will follow.

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Another thought on hits:  if a hit results in a takeaway, great.  But if not, it often temporarily takes a player from each team out of the play, turning the game briefly from a 5-on-5 to a 4-on-4, which would seem to significantly benefit the offense.  I wonder if that might be a dynamic behind the seemingly counter-intuitive statistics on hits vs. success?  As for the Kings, they are both very physical AND very fast.  I wonder if perhaps they are more successful in gaining the puck when they hit and/ or have sufficient speed to recover more often than other teams when they don't?    

 

Probably the biggest factor would be who you hit.

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Your point is very well taken, which is why I said "apparently" in my original post.  But here's why I question whether we went after any of these three: 

 

  • Derek Roy signed with Nashville for $1m.  Is Nashville so much more attractive than Carolina that maybe $1.5 wouldn't have lured him here for a year?
  • Peter Mueller signed with St. Louis on a two-way contract for $700k at the NHL level.  Granted, St. Louis is a much more attractive franchise w.r.t. winning.  But I've got to believe that Muellers primary goal this year is to prove his NHL chops and position himself favorably for free agency next year rather than contend for a cup. Wouldn't he have had an easier time doing with Carolina than with St. Louis?
  • Stempniak signed with the Rangers for only $900k.  Again, might more $ have lured him here?  I see this one as perhaps the least likely if Stempniak was primarily interested in a cup run, but who knows?  Again, a $1.5m contract has to look a hell of a lot better than a $900k one.

Roy made $4m last year and Stempniak $2.75m.  I'm wondering if RF didn't even really consider pursing either thinking that they would be out of range of any extra $ PK might put out?  Pure speculation here: I could envision PK maybe upping the payroll another $1-$1.5m to add another valuable piece but not much more than that based on the tone of his remarks this offseason.

 

Or maybe PK wasn't willing to pony up any more money at all.  I personally think such a stance would be a bit short sighted as I think any of the 3 players above might have been a big help to this years team, especially when injuries start to occur,  If we're competitive but just miss, and 1 of those players  would have put us over the top, I can't imagine $1.5m or so better spent.  On the other hand, I can't criticize PK if he wasn't willing to spend any more.  Looking at team payrolls, the only other small market team that I see outspending the Canes is Tampa Bay (http://www.capgeek.com/).    

 

 

All the teams that you mentioned make the playoffs on a semi-regular basis.

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A lot has been speculated about the PK budget.  I really wish there would be more transparency which would help diehard fans understand moves/non-moves.  There is no harm in sharing this information now that the major part of FA is past.  I get not sharing that info in July.  

 

However, PK should know as a businessman that you can only pinch the budget so much.  If you want profits to grow, you must increase the top line, revenue.  For that to happen in sports, you have to put a product on the ice people are willing to pay to see.  He loosened the pursestrings a few years ago and we made some moves.  Unfortunately, we are now saddled with some terrible long-term deals.  But, if the team is not losing money, I would hope that he would press forward until we find that right formula.  The money will follow.

 

PK never needs to open his mouth to explain anything hockey related.  The Canes are about middle of the pack in payroll as it stands.  Unless PK would have been willing to wheel out a couple of wheelbarrows of money to use the compliance buyouts, that couldn't change.

 

RF was dealt a bad hand and he is going to have to see it out.  The Canes have some bad contracts and not much in the cupboard.  It's going to take some time, and as PK said "we are going to have to be more patient".  I hated it when he said that, but in reality, it was right.  He just should have candy coated it.

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Seeing some discussion on Hockey Buzz concerning the Capitals possibly adding Bissonette to their group? As the discussion went, there was talk of needing to trade a player to make room for that move? Two players named were Green and Brower. IMHO, Troy Brower sure would look good on #11's wing? Surely better than what's projected right now.

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PK never needs to open his mouth to explain anything hockey related.  The Canes are about middle of the pack in payroll as it stands.  Unless PK would have been willing to wheel out a couple of wheelbarrows of money to use the compliance buyouts, that couldn't change.

 

RF was dealt a bad hand and he is going to have to see it out.  The Canes have some bad contracts and not much in the cupboard.  It's going to take some time, and as PK said "we are going to have to be more patient".  I hated it when he said that, but in reality, it was right.  He just should have candy coated it.

 

Pretty much sums things up......agreed SD.

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Seeing some discussion on Hockey Buzz concerning the Capitals possibly adding Bissonette to their group? As the discussion went, there was talk of needing to trade a player to make room for that move? Two players named were Green and Brower. IMHO, Troy Brower sure would look good on #11's wing? Surely better than what's projected right now.

Most projections I have seen have Skinner or Tlusty on Jordan's LW. I can't see Brouwer as an upgrade there.

Edited by cclifford10

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Hmmm. Probably a money thing mainly. Says he wanted a salary match and PK had already put it out there that he was not going to pay a lot for this coach.

 

I know this sounds like sour grapes, but I am honestly glad we got Peters > Bylsma for this team.

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PK never needs to open his mouth to explain anything hockey related.  The Canes are about middle of the pack in payroll as it stands.  Unless PK would have been willing to wheel out a couple of wheelbarrows of money to use the compliance buyouts, that couldn't change.

 

RF was dealt a bad hand and he is going to have to see it out.  The Canes have some bad contracts and not much in the cupboard.  It's going to take some time, and as PK said "we are going to have to be more patient".  I hated it when he said that, but in reality, it was right.  He just should have candy coated it.

 

Nailed it.

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If Bylsma turned down the job he did us a favor. Quite frankly if you struggle to make one of the best teams in the league a winner what was he really going to do with a middle of the pack in salary and terrible team last year?

 

That's if you get past what cclifford points out that this article is highly unreliable to begin with.

Edited by legend-1

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I was away for a little while with only limited time for the Internet so I have been catching up with some of the speculation being written by the pundits and alleged experts. Not a lot new but mainly rehash of the goalie situation, Staal needs to produce, speculation on our chances and lineups.

 

After reading it I think the smartest of the lot are the ones who write they just don't know what our chances are or who will slot where. For me I think it will be wide open going into camp especially the line positions. Honestly. I hope that is true because it should make for an interesting camp and pre-season.

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Kevin Hayes, Chicago's 2010 1st round draft pick (#24 overall) became an UFA the other day.  He's a 22yo, 6'4" 215 lb RW who finished 2nd in the NCAA in scoring at BC last year (39games, 28g, 39a, 67p). He rejected the Hawks entry level offer because they're loaded up front and he wants a chance to play at the NHL level sooner than what would be likely in Chicago. 

 

I don't know enough about him to say we should be in the hunt, but imo he's likely our last chance to add another piece to the Canes before the season stars.  It's reported that at least 5 teams are seriously interested, but the CAnes weren't listed among them.

 

http://espn.go.com/chicago/nhl/story/_/id/11359441/kevin-hayes-chicago-blackhawks-unable-reach-contract-agreement

 

 

EDIT: I forgot, Dustin Penner is still out there, but at LW seems like we'd have to do some juggling to fit him in.  Plus, the fact that he hasn't been signed yet leads me to believe he's looking for more $ than we'd be willing to part with.  Devin Setoguchi is also still available, but to me he doesn't seem like the type of player RF said he's targeting.

 

Edited by LakeLivin

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Kevin Hayes, Chicago's 2010 1st round draft pick (#24 overall) became an UFA the other day.  He's a 22yo, 6'4" 215 lb RW who finished 2nd in the NCAA in scoring at BC last year (39games, 28g, 39a, 67p). He rejected the Hawks entry level offer because they're loaded up front and he wants a chance to play at the NHL level sooner than what would be likely in Chicago. 

 

I don't know enough about him to say we should be in the hunt, but imo he's likely our last chance to add another piece to the Canes before the season stars.  It's reported that at least 5 teams are seriously interested, but the CAnes weren't listed among them.

 

http://espn.go.com/chicago/nhl/story/_/id/11359441/kevin-hayes-chicago-blackhawks-unable-reach-contract-agreement

 

 

EDIT: I forgot, Dustin Penner is still out there, but at LW seems like we'd have to do some juggling to fit him in.  Plus, the fact that he hasn't been signed yet leads me to believe he's looking for more $ than we'd be willing to part with.  Devin Setoguchi is also still available, but to me he doesn't seem like the type of player RF said he's targeting.

 

I also read after his brother was traded by the Blackhawks  he may have cooled on them and he had friends skating for Calgary org I think but it also said he was looking for a fast track to the NHL. He sure would have a faster track here. I doubt RF is shopping at this point but you never know......

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 I doubt RF is shopping at this point but you never know......

I don't think so either. :( But it seems like these are the types of move that could make a difference over the course of a few years.  Basically, for the price of an entry level contract (and no other assets) you're getting a free extra 1st round draft pick.  Or, put another way, a big 22yo  that has proved himself at the highest NCAA level.  Granted, that's still a long way from the NHL, but I look at some of the players that have come out of U.S. Universities and it seems like a good risk to take. 

 

Edit:I should mention that with bonuses an entry level contract can run a bit north of $11m over 3 years, so it's not automatically as cheap as it sounds on the surface. And, as with free agents, you've got to convince the kid to come to your city.  Although it does seem like we've got a pretty decent path to NHL ice time if he's got the goods.

Edited by LakeLivin

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I, for one, am glad we are being patient. Guys like Boychuk and Terry are going to get a look and they deserve that chance. We've always plugged "holes" with Dvorak, Ponikavarski, Komisarek, etc. This year, our prospects get a real look and chance to make the big team. If they can't cut it, we can fill in the gaps via trade or picking up a player that had to be shed by one of the teams that's over the cap.

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