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Lake, 1st a disclaimer-- I really like Sekera!! Having said that, I think his "relative goodness" is due to "the company he is keeping". Thus, would he be viewed as such on 29 other teams? This I personally can't say, but suspect that on many of them, he drops down to 2nd pairing. Now, with that perspective, where does that place him?

My own feeling about worth, based on a dropoff from his obviously career year last year, would be around 4.75 mil for 3-4 years. If push comes to shove, I could be talked into a "limited NTC", and might even increase a little $.

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rem- I was just about to post the thought of going with limited NTCs, maybe allowing a player 6-8 teams he could veto a trade to.  Great minds?  Well, minds, anyways. :P

 

So, I'm reading the Sekera could get north of $5m/ yr going forward.  What's the max the faithful here would pay per year and for how many years?

not more than 5yrs/ $27millin.  a little shorter than the pending Mac Staal deal with the Rags, and about what Orpik got.

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On the plus side, overall, we have a pretty cheap defense, that outside of Sekera, will be even cheaper next year pending trades or UFA pick ups:

 

Next Year:

 

Faulk: 3.5 million (nice), it goes up the next year though.

JML: 2.75 million (his salary drops in this the last year of a front loaded deal)

Hainsey: 3.0 million

Murphy: 833K

Bellemore: 600K

Fleury: if he makes it, less than $1 million.

 

 

Now Faulk gets a big bump season after next to $5.5 million. But the cap is going up by then too. If Fleury comes on, and Murphy, we have a defense still not that expensive even with a pumped up Sekera, especially next year. In fact, we could easily front load his contract into next year as an added incentive to sign, and to give us cap room later.

 

So at least in theory we can afford to overpay Sekera. I know, I know, JR, but Sekera is in his sweet spot and has perfect timing. At 28, next year and the next few would be his projected peak years.

 

Again, if he wants out, or feels the need to see free agency, nothing to be done. If he wants the super JR special, 7 years huge money and a NTC, ok no, but I would freely "overpay" him so long as it's not too crazy, if he wants to stay.

Edited by remkin

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Michael Smith just posted a Q & A with Ron Francis.

 

Tracking The Storm

 

It gives some insight into his thinking.  I'm not sure it ultimately answers what direction the team is taking but  I did think it was revealing. I'm starting to get a feel for how he will or hopes to address the team moving forward.

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Nice interview, though still kind of tough to read him. He hates losing and he wants guys that hate losing...good, there's the culture issue, but then he says, "on the flipside" he will move people. Clearly no tank, but would he SRM? He said clearly that J came here to play with E, and now they are doing that and liking it.

 

But it took J being here for E. to decide to raise his game?

 

He mentions that the biggest complaint was the "compete level" in the past and Peters is holding guys accountable. OK, some, but really that just seems to say "Semin". Maybe Murphy? but he is still developing, so Semin. But E. is only now bringing the effort since he is playing with J. Looking at who has been getting held accountable by far the most...Semin. When he says some players may not be moved till later...Semin? Not very movable now.

 

I don't know, Iike I said, he's hard to read.

 

The most imment issue though is Sekera and Tlusty. And that's the quote I would pull:

 

"What’s happened in the past is that teams have raced to sign their own free agents. When you get to July 1, the talent pool isn’t as deep as you’d like. Heck, just look back at last July 1. There are probably some contracts that day you were shaking your head at, and now maybe shaking your head at even more."

 

And that is why you overpay Sekera. Most of the best FA's are locked down by their teams before July 1. This leaves precious few grade A UFA's, forwards or defensemen. The few that are there, then get bid way up. But then only a few teams get their man, even if they overpayed. The teams that missed are now desparate and bid up the grade B UFA's way higher than they're worth. Then after the frenzy there is a lull and some nice scraps can be had for cheap. But the point is, that Sekera will be a lower grade A UFA. His value is high, but even if we wanted a guy like him, and even if we are ready to pay, we are very likely to find ourselves missing.

 

Then we would end up in the "overpay for B talent" pool, which is really even worse.

 

Again, don't go crazy, but if it can be done, lock that down.

Edited by remkin

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Nice interview, though still kind of tough to read him. He hates losing and he wants guys that hate losing...good, there's the culture issue, but then he says, "on the flipside" he will move people. Clearly no tank, but would he SRM? He said clearly that J came here to play with E, and now they are doing that and liking it.

 

But it took J being here for E. to decide to raise his game?

 

He mentions that the biggest complaint was the "compete level" in the past and Peters is holding guys accountable. OK, some, but really that just seems to say "Semin". Maybe Murphy? but he is still developing, so Semin. But E. is only now bringing the effort since he is playing with J. Looking at who has been getting held accountable by far the most...Semin. When he says some players may not be moved till later...Semin? Not very movable now.

 

I don't know, Iike I said, he's hard to read.

 

The most imment issue though is Sekera and Tlusty. And that's the quote I would pull:

 

"What’s happened in the past is that teams have raced to sign their own free agents. When you get to July 1, the talent pool isn’t as deep as you’d like. Heck, just look back at last July 1. There are probably some contracts that day you were shaking your head at, and now maybe shaking your head at even more."

 

And that is why you overpay Sekera. Most of the best FA's are locked down by their teams before July 1. This leaves precious few grade A UFA's, forwards or defensemen. The few that are there, then get bid way up. But then only a few teams get their man, even if they overpayed. The teams that missed are now desparate and bid up the grade B UFA's way higher than they're worth. Then after the frenzy there is a lull and some nice scraps can be had for cheap. But the point is, that Sekera will be a lower grade A UFA. His value is high, but even if we wanted a guy like him, and even if we are ready to pay, we are very likely to find ourselves missing.

 

Then we would end up in the "overpay for B talent" pool, which is really even worse.

 

Again, don't go crazy, but if it can be done, lock that down.

And Sekera knows everything you have just posted. He knows it is his one chance in his career to really cash in, see what's out there, and be in control of where he plays. He'll get every dollar in July that will be available now. I just don't see it happening, unless life is so comfy here that he doesn't want to leave. That makes me uncomfortable. I hope that mentality left with JR.

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Not much love for Sekera. Maybe I have him overrated.

 

Overall the conventional wisdom is to lock down your best UFA's before they hit the market. Lots of guys do sign with their teams.

 

I get that the term "overpayed long-term deal" leaves room for interpretation, but I'm curious Coastal, as you are as strong on the importance of a good defense as anyone on here. How do we get better on defense letting him go? I'm really asking.

 

A defenseman as good as Sekera is takes 4-6 years to build from the draft and is very hit or miss at that. Of all the UFA and guys we've traded for on defense since 2006, Sekera is the best to me. Maybe I'm overvaluing him, but who's been better? Who steps in there? Do we draft more defenseman and wait 5 more years? He is just coming into his peak.

 

I guess the one way would be to try to get one back in a trade, but teams don't trade their best dmen very often.

 

So those are questions but I guess the main one would be this, to anyone who cares to answer:

 

WHAT IS THE MAX YOU WOULD YOU PAY SEKERA AND FOR HOW LONG?

 

What is over paying for him?

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Another thing to consider from the Canes end (I realize Sekera might just want out), is what other moves are made. If we end up making big moves like trading E and Ward, and somehow move Semin? We have some room in the old budget to pay Sekera.

 

Another option would be to front load his deal. Our defense is pretty cheap the next couple of years, and if we offload salary for picks, the next couple of years we could pay more, then lower it the last 2-3 years, which would also make him more tradable if he tailed off.

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I don't think we are overrating Sekera. We look better as a team with him in the line up. It looks like he wants 5 or 6 million. I'm not sure he is going to get that. There are rumblings with a declining Canadian Dollar the salary cap may not rise much. A lot of teams including us seem to have felt the bite of long term contracts. I'm just not sure what he will get on the open market.

 

But the question is what will we offer if it were up to me. I would go $4.5 million. max per for 3 years. I don't think that will be enough but that is what I would offer.

 

I'm very bad at this but you asked.

 

*** I think I will revise that. $4 million per for 3 years or $4.5 per for 2 years.

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But the question is what will we offer if it were up to me. I would go $4.5 million. max per for 3 years. I don't think that will be enough but that is what I would offer.

 

I'm very bad at this but you asked.

 

*** I think I will revise that. $4 million per for 3 years or $4.5 per for 2 years.

And Sekera's agent will laugh you out of the room and end negotiations.  That isn't even close to market value will be in the summer, and exactly why I think he will be moved. 

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And Sekera's agent will laugh you out of the room and end negotiations.  That isn't even close to market value will be in the summer, and exactly why I think he will be moved. 

 

Haha..I know and I am very bad at this monopoly thing. I wrote somewhere previously that I didn't think we could re-sign him. I just don't see this club paying 5 or 6 mil for him but maybe. I like him and respect his play. If we sign him I would be ok. I'll just let PK and RF worry about the dollars.

 

What would you offer him?

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I get that the term "overpayed long-term deal" leaves room for interpretation, but I'm curious Coastal, as you are as strong on the importance of a good defense as anyone on here. How do we get better on defense letting him go? I'm really asking.

 

Playing team defense is getting better on defense. Forwards play defense as well.  See PK, SA, GA which are currently 4th, 7th, and 11th, respectively in the league standings.  This bunch has proven to be stingy and play tight games, even with a challenged roster.

 

Most of the "healthy" players are buying in and that bodes well defensively going forward.  Some turds still hang around after flushing.

 

Good goaltending doesn't hurt. We also have an asset there. Asset Management.

 

Peters and staff have been outstanding on their focus on defense, and IMO, their system is predicated on it. 

 

I think Sekera is getting traded, so I'll bow out of the why he shouldn't be discussion.

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Haha..I know and I am very bad at this monopoly thing. I wrote somewhere previously that I didn't think we could re-sign him. I just don't see this club paying 5 or 6 mil for him but maybe. I like him and respect his play. If we sign him I would be ok. I'll just let PK and RF worry about the dollars.

 

What would you offer him?

 

I like him and would like to see him signed, but I think the reality is that he will get a longer deal than I would have any interest in signing.  I too have difficulty with the Monopoly money contracts, but if you look at what good UFA dmen have been going for, it is in the $5.5M to $6M for 5 or six years.  Reggie is a solid dman, but is he $36M over 6 years good? 

 

I'd think his real value is about $4.5M for 4 years, but I don't think that gets the job done.  The overpayment is going to be somewhere between there and 6x6 amount that could end up being a bad deal.  More than one GM will go more than that because he may be a guy that puts a team over the hump.  He isn't going to put this team over the hump, so that's why I think his best value going forward may well be a lower 1st round pick that could come back in a trade.  This team's future is in acquiring and developing talent.  That is the only way that we can remain relevant in a small market with limited revenue.

 

edit: Here is last years UFA dman crop and what they brought...

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/defenseman/

Edited by super_dave_1

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Good list SD. And the money has to be considered. That's the hard part. That's why I asked what people think we should pay him and I really appreciate your giving a number. I might bump it a touch higher since this is a guy we need, but looking at your list, and mine below, pushing much above $5 million would get Sekera into top 25-30 dmen money, and that might be hard for Francis to do right now. Also, there is a LOT of interest, and the return could be good.

 

I still try to keep him because he IS good, and will be close to unreplacable in the short run.

 

Here are some quotes from a recent article:
 

http://cardiaccane.com/2015/01/22/nhl-trade-rumors-carolina-hurricanes-may-forced-trade-andrej-sekera/

 

General manager Ronny Francis has gone on record saying, I’m going to give it one more try here to get this guy signed to an extension, but if I can’t get him signed to an extension, then we’re going to have to trade him. Getting him signed to an extension will be difficult. Carolina is very much a budget team, not even close to the salary cap. They’ve got a strong internal budget. Sekera, because he puts points on the board, is going to be a guy that’s going to generate between 5 million and 6 million a year on a longer term deal. Lots of teams interested in Carolina, Sekera if he is made available at the deadline.”

 

It should be a surprise to no one that Andrej Sekera is set to demand a lot of money over a long term deal. The pending UFA has played the best hockey of his career over the past 2 seasons in Carolina.

 

With the Carolina Hurricanes a low-budget team, it is unlikely that they will be able to afford another big contract north of $5 million per season for 4-5 years.

 

Though Andrej Sekera may be worth the big money, it just doesn’t look like it will happen in Carolina."

 

 

 

Clearly makes the case that there is a good chance that the budget combined with a pretty good return for letting him go, has the odds stacked against keeping him. "I'm going to give it one more try" is not encouraging for the Keep Sekera campaign.

 

 

My next post will be a very rough attempt at what he could be worth.

Edited by remkin

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So the list of last years UFA's shows the timing problem we have.

 

When you value a guy playing very well, moving into his first big contract, you have to really look FORWARD not just back. What will guys like Sekera get in a couple of years? A guy signing a long term will be factoring that in also.

 

That is hard to do though, so for now we look at now.

 

The UFA's from last year were not a list of super elite dmen. Makes it hard to compare.

 

But Niskanen got the JR special: (not from JR but you get the point): $5.7 million over SEVEN years. Orpik, now getting on, was also overpaid, 6.5 million/year including his signing bonuses, 5 years. Then it dropped down to the 4 millon range for the next 3.

 

15 top paid Dmen:

 

Suban 9.0 million, Weber 7.8, Suter 7.3, Letang, 7.2, Campbell 7.1, Doughty 7.0, Phaneuf 7.0, Chara 6.9, Petrangelo 6.5, Weber 6.0, Green 6.0 Seabrook 5.9, Niskanen 5.7, Enstrom 5.7, Markov 5.7.

 

Does Sekera fit in there with those names? Mostly not.

 

A rough scan of the $5 million mark puts a dman right near the #30 line for NHL dmen. Most teams' number one Dman makes $5 million or more. However, around 1/4 teams have a #2 guy making $5 million or more. It is quite variable, but in general, the #2 paid dmen on an NHL team is currently making around $4.2 million.

 

HOWEVER, Carolina, currently has one of the cheapest defenses in the league. Faulk at $4.8 is at the low end for #1 guys, but after that we are downright stingy. A cursory glance shows us around #29 in what we pay our top 3 guys, only Colorado looks cheaper.

 

 

This is a really interesting topic in a way assuming Sekera has at least some interest in staying. (If not, the return is still interesting).

 

 

What is he worth in today's open market? What is he worth to our team? How do we replace him? Is it really that smart to save a couple million on Sekera so we can pay E, Ward, Semin, et all? Shouldn't we keep some cash for our defense? Can we move any of those non defenseman huge salaries? What is Sekera worth in 3 years when we don't have him but the cap and salaries are up?

 

BUT what if Sekera brought back the #16 first round pick in this deepest of drafts? Or better?

 

Almost no teams have a #3 defenseman over $5million. If Sekera is to get $5 million, he has to be our #2 defenseman at least for the next few years. But he will be. Who else will?

 

 

I would love to know what Francis final numbers are for Sekera, and his also. May never know.

 

 

Personally, I'd give Sekera $5 million/year for 5 years w/ no NTC (all the decent UFA's got 5 plus years last year, I doubut he signs for less years). He will be at the high end for #2 dmen for now. I would front load the deal. Pay him $6 million the first two years, $4.4 million the last 3. as we will be rebuilding and hopefully offloading salaries. Also, if he ends up not in the plans in two years, his salary will make him easy to trade.

 

If he wants more....probably not....the return is too good.

Edited by remkin

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Just one other point, yes, this Sekera thing has me intrigued. It is the biggest thing most likely close to happening.

 

Anyway, the other point is this:

 

A lot of how Francis is probably feeling about Sekera is tied to the anchors, tied with a golden chain. IF Francis has any plans to move E or Ward for picks plus and picks, he will offload a bunch of salary and get some picks, making him more keen to sign Sekera.

 

If, E and Ward stonewall, and Semin is unmovable, not only does it leave the salaries on the books, but it leaves Francis without any big moves to make. I have to think Francis wants some extra picks in this draft. I also think he has to be thinkig, "I have to do something big. I can't just return this exact same team next year." If he can't or chooses not to move E, Ward, or Skinner...Sekera is his only big chip.

Edited by remkin

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Overpaying out of fear got us the Gleason and Ruutu extensions. Both were the Canes biggest chips at the trade deadline. Both were identified as core guys and got paid to deals that seemed okay at the time. Both were ultimately not good deals and would the Canes be better now if those guys were moved when the team had a chance?

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Well thought out rem. I would still be inclined to keep the offer under 5 mil but maybe if it was front loaded a little over the course of the contract 5 would work.  Faulk will go to 5.5 after next season and I expect he is our number one. Sekera at 5 isn't unreasonable. I would still like to see him at 3 years but contracts are getting longer. Absolutely against a NTC

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Overpaying out of fear got us the Gleason and Ruutu extensions. Both were the Canes biggest chips at the trade deadline. Both were identified as core guys and got paid to deals that seemed okay at the time. Both were ultimately not good deals and would the Canes be better now if those guys were moved when the team had a chance?

 

That's a valid point. Both of those guys seemed very worth it at the time.

 

Still very good teams do re up their best players. Not sure of a team that cuts everyone loose when they hit UFA. Even the RedWings and other vaunted franchises work to keep their best players before they hit UFA.

 

Is Sekera likely to be the next Gleason or Ruutu? Could be, but I don't think so. Lord knows I could be wrong. I was down with re signing both Gleason and Ruutu. So I most definitely could be wrong.

 

But I don't think it's fear really. If we are to turn this ship around and get competitive, lets say even 2 or 3 years from now, we are going to need to upgrade this defense if Sekera is gone. Francis has to consider the effect of letting Sekera go as well as the effect of a big contract.

 

It is somewhat interesting at least.

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Allan Muir of SI says that Sekera might fetch a second rounder and a prospect.

 

If it comes to it, a first rounder would be better....

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I'd bet the bank we are asking for a first assuming Sekera is dealt.

 

And I'm betting that RF is able to get that #1 if he's dealt.  The buzzards are circling now and there is still plenty of time for a team to lose a dman to injury.  I'm hoping RF is working on a solution this week.

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