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The two best teams in the NHL on Face Off percentage: drum roll.....

 

Carolina and Arizona.

 

How is that translating to WIN percentage?

 

Not so well....

 

#27 and #30.

 

 

It has been estimated, by one guy who did in depth analysis that over the course of an entire season, that being the best face-off team in the league was good for about 3 wins. 

 

Then again, 3 wins looks pretty good right about now... :letssee: .

 

 

Not to say I'd rather lose them, and you do have to look at that when analyzing centers, but on the list of things to be really good at, it's not at the top.

 

Edited by remkin

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The two best teams in the NHL on Face Off percentage: drum roll.....

 

Carolina and Arizona.

 

How is that translating to WIN percentage?

 

Not so well....

 

#27 and #30.

 

 

It has been estimated, by one guy who did in depth analysis that over the course of an entire season, that being the best face-off team in the league was good for about 3 wins. 

 

Then again, 3 wins looks pretty good right about now... :letssee: .

 

 

Not to say I'd rather lose them, and you do have to look at that when analyzing centers, but on the list of things to be really good at, it's not at the top.

"I got the puck, Coach!  Now what do I do?" :facepalm2:

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It'll be interesting if that sends a message because the man get's 7 mil whether he plays or not and whether he scores or not.

 

The NFL really has it the right way with being able to fire players on the spot.

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So Semin was the extra forward at practice? Does that always translate to the health scratch on game day? or can the threat of it be a sort of "shot across the bow"? and "next time you're scratched".

 

Either way, w/ the back to back it would seem to be a good time to do it. Further, to be honest, he is not contributing anything at this point. Come on Alex, you've got a chance to disprove the naysayers. Don't prove them.

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So Semin was the extra forward at practice? Does that always translate to the health scratch on game day? or can the threat of it be a sort of "shot across the bow"? and "next time you're scratched".

 

Either way, w/ the back to back it would seem to be a good time to do it. Further, to be honest, he is not contributing anything at this point. Come on Alex, you've got a chance to disprove the naysayers. Don't prove them.

 

Maybe not always but it appears it does this time.

Chip Alexander @ice_chip  ·  23m 23 minutes ago

Peters on Semin: with injured players back, Canes have options. So likely Semin will sit Saturday. Final decision tomorrow.

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Outside of Jordan and Jeff do we know what any of the injuries have been?

No,I wanted to make sure I didn't miss something. It's been a long rehab,that's why I was wondering. Just wondering if someone saw something on his shift when he got hurt.

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OBXer wrote:

 

Maybe not always but it appears it does this time.

 

Chip Alexander @ice_chip  ·  23m 23 minutes ago

Peters on Semin: with injured players back, Canes have options. So likely Semin will sit Saturday. Final decision tomorrow.

 

 

Remkin writes:

 

Sounds to me like Peters has been wanting to bench Semin for a while, and now w/ NHL players back (and a back to back) the opportunity has finally presented itself. 

 

At first glance I might think it would have little effect, but he did really seem to respond to being called out by JR last year, so you never know....probably not much to lose trying.

Edited by remkin

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The two best teams in the NHL on Face Off percentage: drum roll.....

 

Carolina and Arizona.

 

How is that translating to WIN percentage?

 

Not so well....

 

#27 and #30.

 

 

It has been estimated, by one guy who did in depth analysis that over the course of an entire season, that being the best face-off team in the league was good for about 3 wins. 

 

Then again, 3 wins looks pretty good right about now... :letssee: .

 

 

Not to say I'd rather lose them, and you do have to look at that when analyzing centers, but on the list of things to be really good at, it's not at the top.

The nature of the question skews the answer (sorta like FoxNEWS polls :))

 

While on average across all centers on a team the guy's analysis makes sense, a comparison of face-off percentage among only the top two lines of all teams would have a bunch more meaning. Top lines (scoring lines) get that way because they have the puck. If they spend their shift trying to get it, they are not going to be scoring goals.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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There was another separate analysis looking at face off percentage over several years of playoffs and found no correlation with winning. We had this debate a couple of years ago, I don't remember the sources.

 

I'm guessing that the reason it doesn't matter so much is this: even a great face-off team is winning 53% while a bad face off team is winning 47%. 

 

Thus of 100 face-offs the good team is winning just 6 extra face offs. This leaves maybe 3 extra face-off wins per game. But the chances that those 3 face offs lead to a scoring chance (or stop one), let alone a goal, let alone a game winning goal....a big chunk of those are between the blue lines and of less important. Some are, as you pointed out, by 3rd or 4th lines not likely to score.

 

Sure, there are key face offs. 5 on 3 defensive, PP or PK, 6 on 5 at the end of the game, etc that matter more. 

 

And there are games where one team dominates the other in the circle and the effect will be bigger.

 

 

So, it's not a complete non factor, but it is highly over-rated over the course of a season, or playoffs.

 

 

Edited by remkin

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Sitting Semin makes sense. Skinner/Eric/Tlusty combined for the lone goal in Vancouver.

 

Peters gave Semin the A (to much ado on this website) during preseason. Semin seemed a lot more active and engaged in the game (to my eye, anyway), but then wasn't wearing it the next game and if there was ever an official explanation for it I didn't spot one - so I'm thinking Alex must have done/said something Peters didn't like, whether during the game or after.

 

Whatever happened, Peters has tried "good cop."

 

Time for "bad cop."

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There was another separate analysis looking at face off percentage over several years of playoffs and found no correlation with winning. We had this debate a couple of years ago, I don't remember the sources.

 

I'm guessing that the reason it doesn't matter so much is this: even a great face-off team is winning 53% while a bad face off team is winning 47%. 

 

Thus of 100 face-offs the good team is winning just 6 extra face offs. Then a big chunk of those are between the blue lines and of less important. Some are, as you pointed out, by 3rd or 4th lines. This leaves maybe 2 extra face-off wins per 2-3 games. But the chances that those two face offs lead to a scoring chance (or stop one), let alone a goal, let alone a game winning goal....

 

Sure, there are key face offs. 5 on 3 defensive, PP or PK, 6 on 5 at the end of the game, etc. 

 

And there are games where one team dominates the other in the circle and the effect will be bigger.

 

 

So, it's not a complete non factor, but it is highly over-rated over the course of a season, or playoffs.

I can understand that, too, and you're right about the closeness of the won/lost in most games. Still, there are many moving parts to winning (notably defense and goaltending :) ) But there's a reason Peters and Ronnie want to play a puck-possession game: It creates consistency (just look at Detroit), and hockey is, first and foremost at this level, a business. And puck possession starts at the dot.

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Have to admit when we got Semin I thought we made a great deal.. However now, I applaud Peters for sending the message, You might have earned that contract, but current play says you dont deserve it...No more living today based on what you did years ago, accountability is where TEAM begins.... 

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I'm thinking that Semin will like this.  In all the previous games, he had to put on all that gear and skate around a little bit.  Now he can leave his street clothes on and observe from afar.  Not much difference from what he has been doing the first 8 games, absent the gear :bangHead:

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I have no unique insight into Semin's drive and make up. He has clearly had and up and down career with flashes of greatness and stretches of....where's Waldo? Some analysts famously called him a coach-killer and a guy they'd never want on their team. Some assume it's the big contract. Then again, analytics on Semin's entire time in Washington showed that he made every player around him better on offense AND defense when he was on the ice. He certainly played well that first year here. 

 

It will be interesting to see how he reacts to being benched. As some have pointed out, with a guaranteed contract, ultimately the player is in charge. Thing is, if Semin is unhappy, he's sure not really tradeable at the moment. And if he pouts and responds poorly to the press box and the Canadian coach and GM, it will just make it worse. He already carries a long term deal that will scare away trade partners, then add fire to the idea that he is a malcontent coach killer? GMs will stay away even stronger than they did when he was a UFA.

 

I will point out again that he kind of went away last year in stretches. Most of us blamed the wrist. I'm sure it was part of it, but I wonder if having an excuse kind of allowed some other bad habits to sneak in there. He may still have a sore wrist, but that is NOT the whole story. Despite my acknowledgement that guys like Semin get a bad wrap on effort because they are so skilled they make it look easy, we've been watching Semin for a few years now, and he is just straight up gliding. It is exactly what Peters said (and I've been saying pretty much all season), he is not playing at full speed. He is coasting, he is not even pretending to mix it up on the boards, he is a turnover machine, sometimes just handing the puck over. Hard to worry about winning 3 extra face-offs per game when Semin gives it back 5 times. This is, more clearly than ever, a pure lack of effort and going through the motions. 

 

If you read my 6K plus posts (highly recommended reading :blahblah: ) you'll see that I have almost never called out a guy's effort. But here I am. Why? And what can we do? 

 

Well I now know for sure what I suspected, Peters is on it. Healthy scratch is probably the way to go. The player can respond one of two ways: total anger leading to more apathy, or motivated. My fear would be the former, but last year JR called Semin out publicly. He responded. So for now I'm going with that.

 

Here is my armchair psychoanalysis. Semin was playing last year on a gimpy wrist. He tried to play through, but was not himself. He took public criticism, which he needed, but probably wasn't thrilled with. While playing with a bad wrist he both had to and had an excuse to fall into some bad habits. ("I'm obviously not going to go mucking in the corner with this wrist"(in Russian)) kind of thing. 

 

Then, this year factor two. Playing on an AHL team. Semin likes playing with E. and Tlusty. Semin likes playing with comparable talent. When E. went down, Semin was left in a position where the other guys on his line were not at his level. He did not want to be a man among boys. Semin is above all things not a fighter. He is the furthest thing from a tough guy. If he is our there dangling and circling and putting on a one man show he will have a giant target on his head. This team stinks w/ the AHL roster. This team cannot protect me. I can coast and be as good as the guys I'm playing with.....

 

This is pure rank uninformed speculation on my part. But then again, gotta do something.

 

Whatever the problem is, if we get Semin back on track it would be like making a major trade for an elite player. So, as Skinner gets confident and E. gets back and Gerbe and Dwywer fill in, if we could get Semin back too, we should have some offense all of the sudden.

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I too would like to see Semin at the speed he should be at.  That being said, BP has, and can use the hammer.  Once Semin comes out of the press box, that leaves a warm seat waiting for someone else... 

 

The shot across the bough.

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I'm with you fellers (to quote "Oh Brother Where Art Thou?"). Semin was the obvious first choice for the bench. Glad it has happened and thrilled JR is in Pittsburgh.

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No doubt the team got the message. I bet there were some on the team that had been thinking: "So, coach, you say you're all about accountability, yet we watch Semin coast through game after game providing no offense and turning the puck over, and you do nothing?" 

 

But now a bunch of guys see that management is serious. They pull the underperforming superstar and guys say, "Well alright. Coach gets it. He has our back. Lets do this thing."

 

Personally I think that has as much impact as other guys personally fearing the press box.

Edited by remkin

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http://t.co/p6N5C0OAH4

Not exactly news I guess. Semen up for trade.

Also Of note that Murphy was not out there last night also. I still think they are better without Murphy.

I can't help thinking that if/when semen goes he ends up lighting it up somewhere else like so many others.

If we can get a decent return, and he plays well elsewhere, that would be fine. A good trade benefits both teams. I don't know why, but he became stale in DC, and it seems he has over stayed his usefulness here. There is no question about his talent, but his motivation is questionable, at best.I just don't know how tradeable thar contract is. I heard the guys on XM say that it might be one of the worst contracts of all time. It might come down to the Canes cutting their losses vs.getting a good return.

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If we can get a decent return, and he plays well elsewhere, that would be fine. A good trade benefits both teams. I don't know why, but he became stale in DC, and it seems he has over stayed his usefulness here. There is no question about his talent, but his motivation is questionable, at best.I just don't know how tradeable thar contract is. I heard the guys on XM say that it might be one of the worst contracts of all time. It might come down to the Canes cutting their losses vs.getting a good return.

How many of rutherfords trades will be talked about in the worst trades / contracts of all time. ? He made a couple great ones but man the bad ones sure stick out.

Edited by caryhurricanes

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