Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
OBXer

2014/15 In-Season Canes News, Updates and Talk

Recommended Posts

I have been so impressed with Nasty.  He is a puck possession beast.  Picture this line:

 

Skinner-Jordan Staal- Nasty

 

This line could establish awesome fore checks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been so impressed with Nasty.  He is a puck possession beast.  Picture this line:

 

Skinner-Jordan Staal- Nasty

 

This line could establish awesome fore checks.

 

This is exactly what I want to see. It'd also allow us to go back to the Gerbe Nash-Lindholm line, this time being the 3rd line. I think we'd have a solid top 9, but that all depends on quickly it takes Jordan to shake off the rust and if Semin can start getting some points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you can't find NHL players in the third round.....snag one from someone who can. Detroit is the best at finding them. Steal from the best.

 

One of the things JR was good at, finding guys like this, and now maybe Francis has one for his trophy case of pick ups. Of course have to credit Peters too.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is exactly what I want to see. It'd also allow us to go back to the Gerbe Nash-Lindholm line, this time being the 3rd line. I think we'd have a solid top 9, but that all depends on quickly it takes Jordan to shake off the rust and if Semin can start getting some points.

 

I think we are much more likely to see Staal / Staal / Lindholm...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's a question I've been asking myself.  But first let me be clear: I love the Nestrasil signing and am not suggesting I'd rather have Richard Panik than Nasty.  But I am wondering why we didn't sign Panik almost a month and a half before we signed Nasty.  It's uncanny how similar they appear. 

 

Nestrasil:  23yo, 6'2", 210lbs. L shot from the Czech Republic.

Panik:       23yo, 6'3", 208lbs L shot from Slovakia.     

 

HockeyNews scouting reports:

Nasty:

Assets: Is a big body with tremendous hands and overall skill. Is also versatile enough to be capable of lining up at all three forward positions.

Flaws: Still needs to work on his play without the puck and in defensive-zone coverage. Despite his size, he's not a very physical player either.

Career Potential: Talented, versatile forward with some upside.

 

Panik:

Assets: Has loads of skill and an ideal frame for the National Hockey League game. Displays excellent scoring instincts and pretty good hockey sense.

Flaws: Needs to work on his defensive-zone coverage in order to maximize his potential. Must also continue to fill out his 6-2 frame.

Career Potential: Talented winger with some upside.

 

Career AHL numbers:

Nasty: 120gms,  22g, 46pts, -3, 0.38 ppg.

Panik: 133gms, 44g, 94pts, +30, 0.71ppg.

 

Panik had 75 NHL under his belt while Nasty's 1st was as a Cane. Both were highly regarded prospects in their respective organizations but hit the waiver wire due to good team depth at their positions.  

 

Peters was obviously more familiar with Nasty but I don't buy that as the reason.  First, wouldn't that decision be driven more by RF rather than the coach? On paper, and from what I can tell by reputation, Panik seems to be at least as attractive as Nasty.  In early October I'd contend that we needed another player probably even more than in mid November.  At the start we still didn't know that Nash, Rask, and Boychuk, and to a lesser extent Terry would work out as well as they have (at that point you'd have to be extremely optimistic to assume they all would maintain NHL form).  Skinner was out with a concussion. On the other hand, we didn't know Semin would be a no show back then, which might have factored into the decision to sign Nasty as well.

 

My (conspiracy) theory is that in early October we were still looking like we might seriously challenge for McDavid/ Eichel.  Around mid November it seemed pretty clear that we had more talent than that and that it was unlikely that we'd "catch" Buffalo or Edmonton (that was before the Slugs winning streak). I suspect that's why PK (I don't think any of this was Ronnie's doing) decided to let RF sign Nasty (both his and Panik's contracts are full 2-way for close to the minimum).  

 

Thoughts? :popcorn:

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First, great stuff Lake. That kind of take is what makes these boards interesting. I didn't know jack about Nasty or Panik, and still don't know much about them. Never would have considered that comparison.

 

Second, Panik sure put up a lot more points than Nasty in the AHL and that plus 30 is very nice. When I look at their AHL numbers it isn't really even close on apparent offensive upside that Panik is more of a scorer.

 

The scouting reports look pretty close (I decided to stop listing the numbers of my points here. Just because I can.)

 

I really don't think Francis was thinking lottery in early October. Purely speculatively I would say that I'm guessing he had it (the lottery) in the back of his mind and it helped him not feel any need to panic, as he held very pat on any big moves and has to date as well. Sort of a, "we don't want to lose, but if we do"....But I agree w/ Coastal and others who postulated that the plan was to assess what we had early on. That was job one. 

 

Since then we've seen what Malone brings, what Terry can bring, a taste of what Rask has to offer, Boychuk, Tlusty, Nash, all have had the chance to show their stuff. My guess is, to the question that Faulker asks, who draws the short straw when J comes back? That Peters and Francis have an idea who that might be now. So the timing is better for a pick up.

 

But I would absolutely not sell short Peters' familiarity with the player. That was probably big. Look at how many players JR recycled. There is something to a comfort level with knowing the guy and having seen him play and heard directly from others you trust. 

 

Finally, Peters is bringing the Detroit philosophy of puck possession, and we have some guys who are not great along the boards. Nasty seems like he brings that skill to the team. (He is as strong on the boards as Semin and Skinner are weak). We need that kind of guy on this team. He is the type of player Peters wants, perhaps more than Panik.

 

Now a whole lot of my take is pure speculation, but there it is. My take and one mouse click will get you an emoticon eating popcorn.

 

 

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really don't think Francis was thinking lottery in early October. Purely speculatively I would say that I'm guessing he had it (the lottery) in the back of his mind and it helped him not feel any need to panic, as he held very pat on any big moves and has to date as well. Sort of a, "we don't want to lose, but if we do"....

 

Just to be clear, I don't see Francis as being behind my "conspiracy theory".  If there's anything to it (note the big "if" ^_^ ), I think it would have emanated from PK and Francis would have had no choice but to toe the party line.  I can see PK saying to himself "I invested close to the max last year and it didn't pay off.  No more $ for now and if we happen to go the route of the Penguins a while back, so much the better."  

 

I can't see Francis willingly playing into a lottery drive in October.  And I still think he was familiar enough with most of the Checkers to have a decent idea as to what we most likely had and that it wasn't going to be enough, especially after J went down and with our lack of depth at RW.  I mean, even with most of the Checkers coming through, we still didn't have enough depth.  But that's just me, and I know others here feel differently . . . 

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lake, rem et al, just now catching up on this thread. Thought I'd weigh in with my .02 cents. IMHO, as compelling as it is to try to get a handle on this season by delving into the mystical realm of "conspiracy", I could honestly not even imagine that Ron Francis even allows thoughts, consciously or subconsciously, of EVER throwing a game for whatever reason, Nor do I think Brandy or Peters, any of the other coaches or players would buy into that type of attitude.

PK is another story, but I'll not broach that subject.

No, I'd suggest that it appears to have been the plan from the very 1st to thoroughly analyze the entire system, from top to bottom, to really find out how to best proceed. Harking back to my scientific roots, the method to proceed in a proof is to change things 1 at a time. To do more does not answer the question.

Thus, I pose, doesn't it seem more reasonable that the decision between to pick up a player now rather in the early going played more into the plan of thoroughly analyzing the players', at both the NHL and AHL levels, strengths rather than throw in another unknown to alter the equation? Then Nastrasil, a player that Peters is more than a little familiar with comes available, so its time to bring him on board, having thoroughly analyzed the group despite the agony and frustrations of losing games.

Panik may very well have been a player equal to or better than Nasty in the long run, but again IMHO, the time was just not right.

Just food for thought.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's an article from The Hockey News about "organizational tanking": http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/nhls-new-draft-lottery-rules-will-encourage-tanking-heres-why/

 

Some excerpts [i added the bolding]:

________________________________________________________________

Don’t think “tank” in the pejorative sense. I use it here because that’s the accepted term on the street. (Gasp! Shameful! He’s endorsing tanking!). I prefer “strategic roster management.” I’ve never believed tanking is possible in team sports. There isn’t a professional coach out there who would instruct his players to purposely lose. It’s too corrosive to his reputation. Even if there was such a coach, getting buy-in from an entire group of players is improbable, if not impossible.

 

But I do think strategic roster management can be manufactured in a completely justifiable manner by a cagey GM. Why shouldn’t the Sabres recall third-string goalie Nathan Lieuwen for a good chunk of games down the stretch? He’s been good in the AHL and the team should want to see how he performs at the NHL level. Why shouldn’t the Hurricanes recall minor-league defense prospects Keegan Lowe and Danny Biega in March to give them an opportunity trying to shut down NHL forwards?

 

A big part of rebuilding a floundering team is determining what’s in the system and giving them real-life litmus tests. Clearly, the lineup that started the NHL season wasn’t good enough if they’re in the conversation for last overall. In essence, the GM is gathering information to do his job, and the side benefit is losing games during a season in which the consolation prize is exceptional. What’s wrong with that?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Granted, the article focuses on GMs driving "strategic roster management" rather than Owners, and "end of year" moves rather than off season moves (or lack thereof :P). But it doesn't seem too far a stretch to me to imagine Karmanos considering the strategy in order to turn a floundering franchise around.  Again, if there is anything to it I don't imagine Francis as being a willing partner; I'm just wondering if his hands were completely tied by salary restrictions.  I mean, given that imo McClement pretty much = Malhotra, and that the Checkers were already in our system, our resources this year are pretty much the same as last years non-playoff team except Ruutu goes to Malone (a career AHLer).  

 

Don't get me wrong, I hear you guys. But all things considered, I think our "lack of moves" was more likely due to Francis' hands being tied by lack of $$ than a stringent "one piece at a time" strategy.  I'm more speculative as to why PK would have completely closed his wallet (organizational "tanking" or just fed up that he'd spent close to the cap last year with no positive result?). Now, if as an organization we were closer to where we had wanted to be, I'd see a RF initiated "only evaluate first" mode as being more probable.  

 

As usual, just one man's thought process. :cheers:

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can call it evaluation, restructuring or rebuilding but IMO the rebuild began in the summer. I think (of course I don't know) that the thought was to rebuild at the AHL level first but injuries changed that a bit. That to me is the silver lining if there is one.

 

I'm sure the wallet dictates moves again but I think RF has a plan and is sticking to it. No trades unless it helps the team in the long run. Putting players in a position to succeed (Rask and Boychuk) . Not resigning players you don't envision long term (Manny, Bowman, Sutter) solutions.

 

RF's next big decisions will come when he makes an evaluation on the vets he wants to keep moving forward and the return he needs for the future.

 

I think everyone in the front office, locker room and in the stands knows this franchise cannot withstand a fire sale or long term rebuild. Every move Francis makes will be calculated on returning this team to the playoffs within 2 seasons if not next season.

 

just another mans opinion :cheers:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have no problem with "strategic roster management", when the time is right. I've been writing that for years. The word tank implies that the coach and players take the ice with the intention of losing. Almost no one is in favor of that, including me. But riding injured veterans at the end of the season to squeeze out a few more meaningless wins and losing out on a franchise player in the draft is just crazy.

 

That said, Francis' lack of big moves offseason comes down to 4 things. 1. No moves made that would hurt the team long term. 2. No moves that don't bring something back the helps the team long term. 3. No Trade Clauses. 4. No big time FA's made sense/ or would come here.

 

There were no big moves available that overrode those.

 

Ward was agressively shopped. But no one wanted him. Rumors were that we would have had to give up our first round pick just for someone to take him. Ward basically said as much in terms of thinking he was gone, implying he had no interst in trying to enforce the NTC.

 

I am fairly sure that Francis shopped E as well. No one knows if E agreed to waive his NTC.

 

I suspect Semin was shopped. Probably J also.

 

After that, who would you trade?

 

So, Francis held pat. We had an exciting new coach. We had a team that was much better on paper than it peformed recently. Francis decided to let the new coach try his hand at getting the most out of this roster, and at least find out who we want to keep. Maybe one or two guys up their trade value (Ward seems to be). Then the injuries happened, but right at the start of the season few trades happen. A trade when J. or even E went down would have been a one sided trade most likely.

 

I'm sure that in the back of Francis' mind is this: if this team fails. If it all comes appart, I will keep the parts that work and jettison the rest, try to get some picks or pieces back that fit (strategic roster management), and.....well, this is a heck of a year to have a lot of draft picks and especially a top 2 pick.

 

Personally, it is still too early for that. But if the time comes, some serious strategic roster management could turn this franchise around, and fairly quickly.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Given it's becoming increasingly apparent that we are what our record says we are, I think the time for strategic roster managment isn't too far away.

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But how could we possibly rebuild (mostly) from within given where we are?  The fact that we didn't make any outside moves makes me believe we were counting on our current "Checker-Canes" in order to be successful.  That left Charlotte depleted (they're currently in 13th place out of 15 Western Conference AHL teams and 28th out of 30 if you throw in the Eastern Conference).  Overall, the Canes prospects were rated 26th out of 30 NHL franchises by one source (http://fans.hurricanes.nhl.com/community/topic/22374-canes-prospects-rated-26th/).  And we don't have a stockpile of draft picks like, say, Buffalo. 

 

All of the above is what made passing on Panik so strange to me. Even if no-one had been injured at the time, we were still desperately short on RWs within the organization.  Panik was a 2nd rounder and general consensus seemed to be that he was a legitimate NHL talent that was only available because of TBs depth up front.  He was cheap ($735k NHL, $68k AHL) and "free" (no compensation needed to acquire him).  And his full 2-way contract made him a "no risk" player. If he didn't work out in Raleigh, I'm sure Charlotte would have loved to have him (or more likely someone would have taken him off our hands via waivers). 

 

So even after we're done "evaluating", how do we rebuild given our lack of trading assets (due to onerous contracts) and lack of prospect depth? We know that we won't be high up on most free agents lists.  Building from within is going to take years.  Until then, I maintain that we will need to identify and take advantage of other teams "miscues" (Gerbe, Sekera) or excessive depth (Panik, Nestrasil).  To me Panik was an opportunity we missed; thank goodness we bit on Nasty.

 

Oh, and OBXer, I completely agree that the Canes can't afford a multi-year rebuild.  The home attendance numbers this year are pretty frightening. :shock:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The first step would be to stop following JR's propensity of signing players that are quick fixes in a futile bid to make the playoffs for one year.  The alternative strategy would be to place much more emphasis in drafting and properly developing our own players, which takes time to see results.  Until then, only moves that make sense for the future.

 

That seems to be the message coming from Ron Francis.

 

Considering the state of our current depth, I don't think that screams that we will see a one-year resurgence to relevance.  It's going to take time.

 

What this fanbase can survive, I have no idea.  But the writing on the wall seems to be that we are going to have to start somewhere, and this is the year that we may see some major and significant changes to our roster, and probably the Checkers as well.

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My take on what to do, and why.  This is my opinion.

 

Several players have embraced BP's system, and some are even suited for it.  I don't think the various players suddenly acquired new or more skill, but they understand the game and adopted what coach wants.  Personally, I love what BP is doing.  Among those players are Nash (particularly), Gerbe, Boychuk, Rask, Gleason, Liles, Bellemore, Lindholm, Skinner (somewhat), and a few others.  Ward has benefited from some actual coaching by Marcoux.

 

Other players haven't bought into the system, and at times seem as if they feel they're exempt.  Faulk (early, but has changed), E. Staal and Semin.  Tlusty gets caught in that wash unfortunately.

 

Think about the latter bunch.  A new coach puts in a system that says "you go here, or there" when the team breaks out of the defensive zone.  When you get the puck, your likely reads are over there and there.  The latter group doesn't buy in, and results in turnovers and confusion.  The first group that has excelled have bought into the system.  They know where to be, and to go, and where to anticipate support.

 

I think we've seen what we are, as Coastal suggests.  If so, trade E. Staal, move Semin if you can, and seek youth as part of a rebuild.  Unfortunately if you're seeking depth (players/youth) you trade Wardo.

 

Lastly, I think J. Staal is going to thrive in the system.  He is the most responsible of our centers, and plays well coming out from under the puck from the defensive zone (perfect for BP).

Edited by Manwolf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The home attendance numbers this year are pretty frightening. :shock:

 

 

health issues are forcing me to miss a majority of the games.   it is frightening to see our home attandence resemble that of the kitty-kats

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To have around a 50% chance of making the playoffs we would need to win 32 of the last 58 games.

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Carolina.html

 

That would be quite a run.

I do not think 32 wins is realistic. We have a long road ahead and you have to include a few key injuries during that 58 game stretch. To go healthy the rest of the year is wishful thinking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What we are in the standings is essentially the worst team in the league. We are two points from the bottom, so that is it.

 

So if you think that as we are currently playing, since November 1st is the 3rd worst team in the league, then fine. I don't agree, but fine. We've gone 3-7 over the last 10 so that could be right.

 

I posted the reasons why I disagree, so you buy it or not, that's what makes the boards go around. 

 

 

However, just note that my thesis is that this team as is, is a slightly above average team. Maybe that is a stretch, but whether it is or not, it is not enough to actually make the playoffs this year. This team needs to be significantly above average over the rest of the year to overcome the hole dug by the team that really was where we stand, the team we put out there in October.

 

Can this team bet good enough? I think it can. But I agree it would not be smart to fly out to Las Vegas and bet the house on it. It is also hard with last night breaking the way it did to keep thinking this is at least a middle of the pack team. But even on a very off night, if Nash and Jordan don't cough up two pucks, we jump up three places and pulled out a poor outing game (only the second one since Nov 1). I still sense overall an improving team.

 

 

Where we sit now, there is nothing to do but keep playing and coaching and see if we can make up some ground. 

 

 

IF we don't keep improving, then the decision will be easy. We need to make changes. There is a really long stretch of days off Jan 19-27. 7 days off. Seems like a decent time to make a move or three. I think we need to get Khudobin some wins and time in net, because Ward is starting to get some trade value. Semin has to go. IF he finds his game as he seems to be, he might fetch something. And finally, it would really seem that E. would need to go too. Imagine if E and Ward draw 1st round picks. E would fetch that and more. Semin? Who knows? 

 

We move Ward, E, and Semin, and you will see a team that is what we are in the standings. But then, this is the year to do that. Three first rounders and maybe even a shot at the top 2? With a remaining core that is decent, and Fleury developing? A key FA pick up along the way and the turn around could be quicker than some might imagine. 

 

 

But it is too soon. Those moves are not there now, and there is still way too much season ahead. 

 

I guess the next 6 weeks or so will tell if we really are the #27 best team as we stand. If so, a couple of key strategic management roster moves and we'll be #30 fast. 

 

There will be two absolute winners this year. The cup winner, and #30.

 

 

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rem, if we Move  cam, no chance of making playoffs, which i know is a long shot... So bit confused...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The main thing is for RF to be able to read the writing on the wall when the time comes and look to make moves if the Canes are on the outside of the playoff picture. JR could never pull the plug.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Semin is absolutely unmoveable with his contract, even if we retain salary. That's how bad it is.

I expect this to be the case for the duration of his contract. We need to buy him out or send him to Charlotte and hope that he refuses to report. I don't think either will happen. Then again I just can't see him being here next year.

It should be interesting but if we keep 7 million a year tied up in an inconsistent (or flat out bad) player hoping that he turns things around, then we failed in my opinion. That is unless things drastically change over the course of the rest of the season. But they won't.

E. Staal has built a more trustworthy name for himself, but I still see a lot of laziness and lack of passion/motivation from our "captain." I haven't liked a lot of what I've seen since last season. I think it makes too much sense not to move him if you can. He makes a ton of money compared to what you get IMO, and as with Semin I just don't see it changing/improving.

.

Edited by Kyrule

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...