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Sounds like the bottom line for kjun was a concern that we may be nearing the ceiling on number of contracts.  Because of the "juniors" clause, seems like that's not an issue.  I think the real question going forward next season will be how much $$ PK is going to allow Francis to spend on UFAs.

 

That and can Francis lure any good ones in.

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Sounds like the bottom line for kjun was a concern that we may be nearing the ceiling on number of contracts.  Because of the "juniors" clause, seems like that's not an issue.  I think the real question going forward next season will be how much $$ PK is going to allow Francis to spend on UFAs.

 

I'm hoping for a couple of quality (top 4) Dmen, but one is an absolute necessity.  There are a few candidates on the market this summer, but it will take PK's checkbook and a gullible free agent.  Unless RF is able to pull a rabbit out of his hat, I'm afraid we are still one more season away from hope and change.

 

I still will not be surprised to see Erik Cole come back.  He was around during the end of RF's playing days.  If I'm not mistaken, he still has a house in Raleigh.  While I don't see him as "the answer", he does bring something that this team is sorely lacking, and there is some past chemistry with both EStaal and Skinner.  Don't forget that Skinner's great freshman season was with Cole.  Getting a little long in the tooth, but you need some veterans on the team, and this is one that might want to come back.

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Cole is an interesting option. Wonder what he would cost. A guy with some speed who will hit and can put up 35-40 points if he stays heatlhy would help. That is the kind of guy I am refering to in my Semin post and below here.

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So I got to thinking and I really think that this team can be competitive NEXT year with a few key moves.

Key move #1: As good a defenseman as we can find. Ideally a guy who can play in the top 2 witihout embarrasment.

Key move #2: Deal with Semin. Probably just buy him off.

Key mover #3: Bring in a top 6 (but really, second tier) forward, if Cole can still bring it, that would be the kind of guy.

We should have easily enough cap space to get both guys and then some.


So why would we be competitive? Well, remember, "competitive" just means that we are in the running for a playoff spot at the end. Right now, this year, that looks to be around maybe 96 points. But in past years the cut has been around 92 to 93 points.

This team, since Jan 1, is 18-14-7. That projects to 90 points over a season. But, since we lost Tlusty and Sekera at the deadline and have had to patch together a mostly AHL defense and had a team playing out the string, we are 4-7-4 in March. If we look at Jan-Feb, we were 14-7-3.

14-7-3 over an entire season projects to 120 points. What??? Yes, President's trophy. That's the pace we were at in Jan-Feb. That with a feckless Semin, a below average Skinner, etc. Don't get me wrong. Every team has a nice run in it. I am not saying that we will win the President's cup with those moves, but we will be competitive, IF we can get at least a rough approximation to a Sekera replacement and one more mid range piece up front.

Next year should see big steps forward for Rask and Lindholm. Both of those guys will benefit greatly from an offseason. Lindholm moves into pivotal seasaon 3, frequently a big jump up for young studs. Rask, has been a case study in consistent improvement over time. Now, off his ROOKIE NHL season, with a summer to work on things? I fully expect nice things from Rask, like up to a 50 point season. Linholm? 60 at least. (His progression from 18 yo: 21 pts, to 40 points this year (projected)). That is 50 more points out of those two.

I also expect Nestrasil to be a solid contributor. The guy has produced at a 40 point pace for us, and he looks the part, they are not cheap points.

Skinner? I think he will also benefit from and offseason. Every offseason Skinner works his tuckus off and comes in looking better and more ready than ever. Then he gets a concussion. No concussion? Goes to the dirty areas, pots goals. One offseason, two years ago, he came back and really looked like he was seeing the ice and looking to play off his linemates, and BOOM concussion. When he finally came back? Not the same guy.

E? In a way he is the big question. If he can get things off to a good start, even overpaid, he can make things go if he is on his game.

Then, if we pick #5, and get Strome or Marner, I bet both can play in the NHL. Not major contributors of course, but could put up a few points.

Wishfull thinking? Well based on long term history? Heck yes.

But we are very strong in goal, and the players have embraced the system. Our special teams are for the first time in a long time, very good. We have under the radar guys who easily project to serious production next year: Rask, Lindholm, Nesty. We are drafting either 1, 5 or 6. (oh to win the lottery....).

We can let Semin walk in terms of the team. Really, a guy like Semin HAS to be producing points because he does not fit the system. You can have a guy a bit outside the system if he can at least produce. But a feckless guy making that bank, and outside the system and not producing? The team is probalby better just letting him walk and counting on the rest of the team to pick it up a bit.

But, if we can add that one more top 6 winger, we can put together a pretty nice looking top 9. And recall, we have a nice 4th line already.

Cole*, E Staal, J, Staal, Rask, Linholm, Skinner, Nesty, Gerbe, Marner (McDavid).

 

* (or simlilar)

 

Our current 4th line: Dwyer/McClemment/Malone

Ward-Khudoben.

Just NEED to get that key D man and next year does not have to be like the others.

Edited by remkin

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Francis has already said a off-season priority is sign a top tier D-man. I'm not sure he used the words top tier but the fact is he recognizes he needs to address the loss of Sekera. 

 

Cole is an interesting thought. I'm not sure we want to go there but he is an upgrade over Sasha. He does work well with young players and hasn't lost much speed. He has a certain cocky attitude that we haven't seen in awhile. I don't know.

 

The loss of Nash shows how thin we are. His injury forced Peters to move E back to center. I think with 5 games remaining I would put E and J back together. I would let Rask center 2nd line and move Lindholm to third line center. If we really want Lindy to be a center then why not let him get experience and take a hard look at him. What could happen? Maybe we lose 7-1 instead of 6-1. 

 

We shifted him there against Florida so why not just make the move.

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OK, so the Canes blew it last night and didn't take their opportunity to put FLA out of their misery.  BOS won, so FLA is hanging by a thread.  The Canes could have literally performed the mercy killing, but alas, they failed.

 

But what about DET?  Hey now... DET is not yet in.  They are still going to have to earn it.   Now, DET most likely will get in if they can get 3 of 10 points.  But what I'm saying is how about none of those points come from the 2 Canes games?  How about denying all the points?  And who knows?  Who's to say that DET doesn't lose all 5?  The Canes can help that happen.

 

I'm looking for *something* to keep my darn interest this year.  Imagine that the last game of the season is critical for DET.  Could happen and would make the game darn interesting.

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At this point in time there should be no reason what so ever to want the Canes to win. We should lose every game from here on out.

 

Sorry bd, I've got to disagree.  We're just about locked into finishing 25th. We can't catch NJ even if we win out & they lose the rest.  We're not dropping below the Leafs. We're 3 points up, 1 game in hand, Leafs just lost to Buffalo and have Bruins, Sens, Canadiens, and BJs left.  BJs have won 9 of their last 10, others fighting for playoff spot or position. Ain't gonna happen.

 

As far as the argument that we need to really stink it up from here on out in order for RF to realize that "we like our group" isn't good enough going forward, I don't buy it.  If RF hasn't got enough hockey sense to realize what us schmoes here on the board clearly see, our first order of buisness this offseason should be to replace him.

 

Giving Canes fans a few more wins is more than enough reason to want the Canes to win.  Especially home games, both to reward the paying Canes fans on hand and to send the visiting fans away with their heads down.

 

Just my opinion.  

 

edit: and this, just read it on todays gameday article.

“It’s about playing the right way, the way Bill wants us to play. We want to continue to try to establish a foundation that we can trust and rely on starting next season,” Eric Staal said after Thursday night’s game in Florida. “You need to bring what you do and what you’re asked to do to the best of your ability. We want to continue to build something for next year, and that’s what we’re focused on for the rest of the way.”

Edited by LakeLivin

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Agree w/ Lake on this. Even as a big SRM proponent. (If we could have, I'd have tried for last. (But we really couldn't have)), there is little to be gained w/ further losing, and winning at least the home games is key. Shut up the Philly and Detroit fans in our own building and play for the fans. In terms of our pick it is sealed and all depends on the lottery now.

 

Might as well show some drive and character, especially after two major letdowns in a row.

 

I do wonder if it might have been nice to bring up say, Brock McGinn to get him a taste of NHL speed and some offseason motivation, but I guess you'd have to scratch someone else, and he and DeGuissseppe haven't really put up great numbers. Not to open a can of worms, but apparently Chad LaRose is back from his injury. But that would just be a side note move.

 

Play for the win. Pray for the win (in the lottery).

 

Win these games, or not, all eyes on LA now.

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If detroit  beats us twice,  boston probaly gets in.. Oh well, i hope they do in that case,and  and   Bruins and Les habitant play a  first round series..  THATS HOCKEY  BABY!   But the best  scenario is the Bruins missing out, but dont see it..

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Detroit and Boston both won yesterday.  So, Ottawa is really starting to sweat.  The Detroit-Canes games may not matter at all.  We'll see.  It is too bad.  

 

Canes are pretty well locked on 5th pick pre-lottery.  Just win.  Oh, maybe lose at Buffalo...

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Xray Wrote:
 

Canes are pretty well locked on 5th pick pre-lottery.  Just win.  Oh, maybe lose at Buffalo...

 

 

Interstingly it is mathmatically possible for us to move up one or down one, but both scenarios require a win out/lose out run (to jump up (down in draft); or nearly that to drop down (up in draft).
 

To Drop a slot (and bump up to the #4 pick slot):

 

We lose out: 0-4, NO loser points. Toronto wins goes 2-1 or the equivelant. Or They lose out and we win no more than 1/4.

 

This may be mathmatically more likely than us moving up, which requires a lose out win out, but practically? No way. Because this one goes the wrong way. First, we almost always manage to at least pick up loser points. But mainly, there is no reasonable predication that tanking Toronto disatster of a team is beating 2/3 of Ottawa, at Columbus, AND Montreal.

 

Technically the mathmatical probabibilty of us moving down the standings is: 3%.  But practically, I say it's lower.

 

 

Moving up the standings and down the draft board:

 

NJ has 77 points, we have 69 points with 4 games left. Difference in points: 8 points. Thus, we would have to win out, and they would have to lose out. No loser points for either side. Just 7 clear cut winners with us getting all 4 wins and them getting all 3 losses cleanly.

 

LESS than 1% overall chance mathmatically, but since NJ has to play NYR/@ TBL and @ FLA, them going 0-3 is not as unlikely as straight odds would predict: 12.5%. I would put it at more like 25%. However, their odds of moving down are 2% IF they lose out. So by my own projections, the chance is around 1%.

 

Straight up without factoring ties in and giving each team a 50-50 chance to win each game: 1/64 chance (1.6%). But the possibity of at least one tie in 7 games? drops that well below 1%.

 

 

So, basically

 

The chances of us dropping to the 6 pick pre lottery (going up the standings) is .3% mathmatically, and maybe closer to 1% practically.

 

The chances of us moving up to the 6 pick prelottery (down the standings) is 3% mathmatically, and closer to 1.5% practically.

 

Yeah, it's pretty set.

Edited by remkin

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You guys do your homework. my brain cant keep up with ya, but anyways, win as many as you can Canes, thats the way to go..

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I'm just hoping the Hockey Gods smile on us, we get the #1 pick via the draft lottery and the Kings get into the playoffs.

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While we were sleeping, Pittsburgh was failing.

 

Amazingly, the Penguins are not in yet, and have a more than 0.001% chance of missing the playoffs.  (About a 6% chance.  Unlikely, would require a lose-out, etc., but really, after the start they had?)

 

I was listening to Brian Metzer (Pens writer) this morning on XM.  I *swear* I was listening to a report on the Canes.

 

"JR has his work cut out for him."

"JR gave up a lot of draft picks."

"JR signed some smaller free agent guys and it hasn't worked out."

 

 

I just laughed.

Edited by wxray1

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"JR has his work cut out for him."

"JR gave up a lot of draft picks."

"JR signed some smaller free agent guys and it hasn't worked out."

 

.

 

Did the Pens not notice JR's work in Raleigh?

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"JR has his work cut out for him."

"JR gave up a lot of draft picks."

"JR signed some smaller free agent guys and it hasn't worked out."

 

 

Give away the future on a wing and a prayer of winning now.

 

How predictable was this.  100%.

 

It's JR's montra.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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In all fairness, didn't JR inherit a Pens franchise with a significant cap crunch?  Hard to tell exactly with CapGeeks gone, but Spotrac lists last years Pens with a cap hit of

$65,811,811 (max was $64.3m), or   $-1,511,811

 

This year:

$71,365,787 (max $69m) or   $-2,365,787

 

They needed help on D and Ehrhoff was considered a coup at $4m on a one year contract.  With no money, what was JR supposed to do?  Was there any choice but to take a flier on smaller free agents?  As far as giving up draft picks, I wonder if he had much else to work with.  They were already short players, and for a team like the Pens I suspect there was a mandate to keep them competitive now.

 

Hey, I'm not defending JRs past history with the Canes. I am wondering if we might be projecting some his past sins on his current performance. From the sounds of things seems like Pitt may have already started the hole JR finds himself in.   

Edited by LakeLivin

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Do you seriously expect anybody here to get in a debate with you over Jim friking Rutherford after the mess he left in Carolina?  This is a very sore subject, particularly with the paying customers.  You might let that dog lie.

 

Pens fans (and media in this case) are crying the blues, and we tried to tell them what to expect.

 

Now they get it.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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Hey, I'm not defending JRs past history with the Canes. I am wondering if we might be projecting some his past sins on his current performance. From the sounds of things seems like Pitt may have already started the hole JR finds himself in.   

 

Hell yes I'm projecting past sins on his current performance.  It's called "history" and those that ignore it are doomed to repeat it.  I hope he drives their ship on the rocks just like he steered us on them.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Do you seriously expect anybody here to get in a debate with you over Jim friking Rutherford after the mess he left in Carolina?  This is a very sore subject, particularly with the paying customers.  You might let that dog lie.

 

Pens fans (and media in this case) are crying the blues, and we tried to tell them what to expect.

 

Now they get it.

 

 

Hell yes I'm projecting past sins on his current performance.  It's called "history" and those that ignore it are doomed to repeat it.  I hope he drives their ship on the rocks just like he steered us on them.

 

I was just pointing out that the Pens may have already been caught up in the surf and on the way towards the rocks before JR took over. I see a difference between putting a ship into jeopardy vs. not successfully rescuing it after it's already in jeopardy. Shero clearly is responsible for the Pens contract and cap issues. I mean, there's a reason he was replaced. Now, if JR has unsuccessfully squandered future draft picks, that will bite the Pens down the road (and I'll be just as glad to see it as you s_d).    

 

But, coastal makes a good point. Things are pretty raw around here. If some JR venting makes people feel better, so be it.  I'll gladly drop the subject.  

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