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The Semin Enigma....

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I really wonder what will become of Semin next year. If Peters said certain guys woudn't be around next year, who else could he mean?

 

Yes, Semin burried a shot in a pretty open net last night, and yes he was less terrible, but for $7 million/year, less terrible isn't getting it done. And one can't help but wonder what the overall effect Semin is having on other guys.

 

The Semin of his first year here was dynamic and scary good. The guy out there now is weaker on the puck than Skinner and mostly unnoticable.

 

On the aftermath Semin was brought up, John and Mike together basically said, "Nothing obviously bad last night. Whatever is up with him, wether a lingering injury or whatever, only he knows. IF he is back next year you only hope he can get back to what he was."

 

Enigma. That's what he continues to be.

Edited by remkin

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Cut em loose and be done with it.

 

He'll prolly sign with some other team, have a 70 point season and then we'll hear about how Peters is at fault from a select group of members.

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The thing is to buy him out is so painful with that contract. I assume that we can basically cut him any time. Probably worth giving him an offseason just to see if he could come back. But I do keep coming back to that comment that some guys won't be back and doesn't that scream Semin. Still, if he comes back and stinks up the joint the first 15 games, just cut him then. I don't know. It is not unheard of for an injury to be revealed once the season is over. Could be interesting

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Probably worth giving him an offseason just to see if he could come back.

Do that, and the Canes are stuck with him and his full salary all next year. The window is usually late in June and lasts about a week.

How much more do Francis and Peters (and us) need to see?

As for the injury thing, I have not seen one bit of news, or even rumor, that would lead me to believe Semin's uselessness is caused by injury.

Edited by super_dave_1

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Semin doesn't make it easy.

 

Buy him out and save one year of salary @ 7 mil but you still owe him 2.3 plus a year for 6 years and associated cap hit. Carrying 14 million in dead money for 6 years is unappealing to me. But it may have to be done.

 

I would bring him back next season and if he falters again put him on waivers. Then send him to Charlotte. $7 million a year for 3 years in the minors is a bitter pill to swallow but at least it would be gone in 3 years. He would give you some depth and who knows maybe he would balk and go away.

 

I have very little hope that Semin will find game but its possible,

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OBXer, here's what I would ask you. If it was you, and your imaginary money, do you take a $7 mil gamble that Semin achieves some type of resurgence? That's the difference in a buyout and any of the other options. The other $14 mil is gone either way. PK can thank JR, or send him a bill.

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Do that, and the Canes are stuck with him and his full salary all next year. The window is usually late in June and lasts about a week.

How much more do Francis and Peters (and us) need to see?

As for the injury thing, I have not seen one bit of news, or even rumor, that would lead me to believe Semin's uselessness is caused by injury.

 

There was rumor about a back problem, and then there is the wrist issue. Not all injuries are disclosed. BUT I am not saying it is an injury. But it is something. When your Ferrari won't go over 30 mph, something is wrong with it. (no, I don't have a Ferarri).

 

This is one of those "in Ron We Trust" things more than others. Guys around Semin and the coach, GM might have some idea what is up with him, or at least if it is worth trying next season.

 

Sometimes an offseason makes a big difference.

 

Don't get me wrong, at this point if we could get a half eaten donut to get out of his contract that would be the move. But to just pay him mega bucks to go away? May well be the thing to do, but not easy.

 

Anyway, the money part is a good point. It's not my money, so I guess I figure give him a short window, maybe he returns with a vengence if not waive him, then buy him out next year.

 

That said, I get the feelign based on that one comment by Peters, that one way or another Semin will not be here next year. And if that happens, I will trust Francis on that move.

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How does the cap space work if we buy Semin out? Do we get any cap space back?

 

Looks like at the moment we have almost $14 million in space, more if it goes up.

 

Not that PK will spend to the cap, but we could.

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Rem, after a buyout, Semin's remaining cap hit would be spread out over a period of twice the remaining length of the contract.  So yeah, Semin's cap hit goes down annually but he's on the books for four more years instead of two.

Edited by coastal_caniac

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So 3.5 million/year forever...(six more years)?

 

I guess as the cap goes up, it won't hurt that bad...

 

Am I correct in calculating that our cap space would then be around $17 million before any increase?

 

 

Not that we would, but we would could go shopping a bit.

Edited by remkin

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Assuming this site has their data in order, yes.  3.5 million for six years as opposed to 7 million for only the next three years.

 

If a buyout were to occur then the Canes would have 3.5 million added cap space.  Guys might be coming and going shortly so I wouldn't add that to what they currently show (the 10 mil).

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Shouldn't it be $2.33 mil a year for 6 years?  He's due 21.  Buyout is 2/3 of that, or 14.  14 over 6 years is 2.33.

 

Thanks SD.  I completely forgot the two-thirds part.

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OBXer, here's what I would ask you. If it was you, and your imaginary money, do you take a $7 mil gamble that Semin achieves some type of resurgence? That's the difference in a buyout and any of the other options. The other $14 mil is gone either way. PK can thank JR, or send him a bill.

 

Thats a good question.  I don't know. Using Ward as an example there were plenty here a season ago who said he was washed up and called for a buyout. Its possible Semin could have a resurgence but I wouldn't bank on it.  I still think I would chance it and go the waiver route if he doesn't show big time play in training camp. Force his hand. If he did stay in Charlotte buy him out next year when he only has 2yr and 14 mil left on his contract.

 

If we do buy him out you won't hear me say thats a mistake. I wouldn't care if he signed with another team and had a 100 point season. He has dug his own hole to crawl out of with us.

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Ideal Situation #1:  Semin snaps out of it/heals from undisclosed injury, and plays to his contract.  Doubtful

Ideal Situation #2:  Waive him, bury him in Charlotte, he bolts for the KHL.  Given the collapse in Russian hockey, not happening.

I'd start him one more year, then buy him out.  After 2016, we have more cap flexibility, and some of our prospects might start stepping up and filling in for some of the expensive underperforming veterans. Plus 4 years of dead contract is better than 6.

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Plus 4 years of dead contract is better than 6.

...plus you have to add next season at full price. It changes the look of 4 is better than 6.

Here is how I see it. Semin was not wanted back in Washington, and had been shifted all around the lineup. He got a one year deal here in the shortened season lockout year, and had 30 or so good games and got an extension. Last season was okay, and this year has been horrible. He has been scratched and used everywhere except for the 4th line. He looks disinterested when he is on the ice. Does anybody think he regains the form that he showed for part of a lockout year? He peaked with 40 goals and 44 assists in 73 games in 09/10, and has been on a steady nosedive since then. If we can get anywhere close to that 1.15 PPG pace, then he is worth the money. If he can get halfway there, it's probably worth keeping him. It just kills me to see him on the ice "not giving a crap" when 2 other forwards are digging pucks out.

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Other than the money, my main concern w/ Semin really is the effect on the rest of the team. When Semin went out the team actually played harder and won some games. Semin on the ice is kind of a wash. Not for the money, but realizing that the money is already gone.  I am really surprised, but his plus minus has never been very bad. This goes back to Washington, and in some ways even this year.

 

I know, I know, plus minus is a very squishy stat, but guys who are flat out bad defensively end up on the wrong side of it eventually. This year, despite producing squat, he is -10. Not great but far from the bottom of the team. But last year, still an off year, he was a plus 1 on a minus team, and his good year he was plus 14 (E was plus 5 on the same line).

 

I am amazed that this disintersed looking guy doesn't cost us more actual goals the way say Eric Staal does (not even to mention Jeff "minus 22" Skinner. BTW even w this pathetic season, Semin is .35 ppg vs Skinner .44 ppg).

 

So what I am saying is that even in this disaster of a season Semin has cost us less goals than Skinner.

 

Again, we are talking about buying him out, not trading him at this point. So the bar is pretty low. Downside he stays as he is, and we are grossly overpaying for 30 points. Not worth it, but if that happens, waive him. Upside, he finds his game again. His actual play even at bad Semin, not cripple the team. We could put up with it for a while before waiving him.

 

UNLESS the greater team and coach chemistry is taking a hit. I circle back to my intial point. I have seen it over the years, where the entire psyche of the team is affected by one player. And when that one player is finally dealt with by management, the team lifts. If Semin's play is bringing the team and coach psyche down, then there is only one play: buy out.

 

IF not, personally I give him one offseason and a few games. Yes, it costs me a few million, but if we get say .7 ppg Semin back? That guy backs off defseman and creates space for other guys. That is the UFA who we can never convince to come to Carolina.

 

All of that said, if I had to bet: buy out.

Edited by remkin

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Hand this guy an empty beer can and invite him to kick it down the road.  Any road that leaves Raleigh.

 

He's not going to change and play the system Peters is asking him to play. 

 

To heck with him.

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First of all, everybody's plus/minus sucks because nobody on the damn team can score.  No plusses.

 

All I can say is that anybody that defends Semin's play this year, or compares his lack of effort to anyone else's, just hasn't been to enough games live.  You can not get a full appreciation of his lack of effort on television.  They tend to follow the puck, and Semin tends to stand far away.  EStaal leaves a lot to be desired, and so does Skinner, but they have had injuries that we know of, and I have more faith in them returning to form than Semin.  Semin had a good 30ish games in the lockout season and that is the best he has done since 2009/2010. 

 

As for the effect on the locker room, if he drives half of us crazy just sitting in the stands, just think what it does to the guys sitting beside him on the bench.  I'm with Coastal, pin a $20 bill to his collar and sit him on the curb.

Edited by super_dave_1

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First of all, everybody's plus/minus sucks because nobody on the damn team can score.  No plusses.

 

All I can say is that anybody that defends Semin's play this year, or compares his lack of effort to anyone else's, just hasn't been to enough games live.  You can not get a full appreciation of his lack of effort on television.  They tend to follow the puck, and Semin tends to stand far away.  EStaal leaves a lot to be desired, and so does Skinner, but they have had injuries that we know of, and I have more faith in them returning to form than Semin.  Semin had a good 30ish games in the lockout season and that is the best he has done since 2009/2010. 

 

As for the effect on the locker room, if he drives half of us crazy just sitting in the stands, just think what it does to the guys sitting beside him on the bench.  I'm with Coastal, pin a $20 bill to his collar and sit him on the curb.

 

Umm . . . why do you pin a $20 bill to his collar?

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