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Whaler1

The Semin Enigma....

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We should be swimming in money after next season. With Semin gone by either buyout or trade, and if Cam and E are still Canes, their new contracts should have significant discounts over what they are soaking up now. We might be able to afford some of those " game changers "  that pop up.

Edited by winger52

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I really think Francis HAS to go out and find a nice NHL defenseman to put with Faulk, and ideally at least a second line winger, maybe that guy with some edge and at least 20 goal potential (not talking about a premo guy) this year.

 

If we buy out Semin we need some more offense as this team has had stretches where we just can't score. Also, if we buy out Semin this will free up a couple million more in cap space. According to the hockey buzz cap central site that Coastal showed us, we are currently $10.2 million under the cap. Next year shows $14.4 million under this year's cap, but guys like Terry, Nash, Nastrasil, Bellmore, Jordan, Hillen, and Dwyer are not signed. However, none of those guys should command a big payraise.

 

So, yes, in two years we Ward and E. come off, Rask and Lindholm will have to get some kind of bump, Gerbe, and also Khudobin are off. Also our piece of Ruutu and Harrison come off.

 

BUT this year it is not excusable to do as little in UFA as we did last year.

 

Say we re-sign Dwyer and Nestrasil for sub $1 milllion on average. Nash? Hmmm. league minimum? Sign and trade? Anyway, say we also re up Bellmore and Jordan. $1.2 million for both and say $1.2 million for Dwyer and Nestrasil. Semin's buy out covers one of those pairs. So we would be at around $56 million. Assuming this year's cap, we would have $12 million in space, more if the cap goes up.

 

We could bring in two guys: a serious Dman at say, $4 million. And a nice second line winger at say $3.5 milion.

 

Why do this?

 

1. That defense needs an upgrade. Even in two years, Fleury and even if we draft Noah Hanifin or Ivan Provorov, these guys will also need at least two years to get their game up to where we need it. (Even the preternatually ready Faulk is just really putting it together).

 

Plus, how many times have we heard that we need to follow the Detroit model and stop rushing guys up here? Well that is especially true on D.

 

2. If we let Semin walk, we need more scoring to be competitive.

 

Both of these guys would be guys we'd plan on keeping for a while. As we move forward w/ more cap space, our developing yutes can grow around them.

 

This team, with a reconstituted defense. Ward and Khudoben in the pipes, and one more forward that actually puts up, say 40 points and plays gritty, could surprise and contend. Like Top and others have said, next year, just contend. The bar is not super high.  But this team with no help on D and minus Semin with no pick ups, up front? Not sure we even contend.

 

So, am I just drinking some Kool Aid? Well if the goal is competitive, I don't think so. I'll put that next.

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 If we let Semin walk, we need more scoring to be competitive.

Replacing Semin and his 5 goals is going to be tough :sarcasm:

 

Whatever RF does as far as Semin goes, we need more scoring to be competitive.

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Whatever RF does as far as Semin goes, we need more scoring to be competitive.

 

Unless Semin stays and returns to his former self. If he did, and some others picked it up a bit, we'd have enough.

 

Not that I'm predicting that will happen (the Semin part, I do think others will pick it up).

Edited by remkin

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 The compliance buyout clause ended last year. There is no more 2/3 buyout clause anymore:

 

http://thehockeywriters.com/compliance-buyouts-nhl/

 

teams will be allowed to exercise buyouts in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 offseasons only.  They are also allowed to use both in one year.]

 

Yes there is.

 

In a regular buyout, players under 26 receive one-third of their salary, those over 26 (Semin) receive two-thirds of the remaining contract.

 

The only difference in a regular and a compliance buyout is under a regular buyout there is no cap relief.

 

http://www.wingingit...s-cba-refresher

Edited by coastal_caniac

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I dunno how the NFL manages to get it into the CBA but man would releasing players with no pay be awesome right about now. 

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Yeah, not that anyone consulted me, but it seems like they could have negoatiated each team gets one "bad contract' buy out. Could even be one every two years. It could be a sliding scale of how much the guy needs to actually be paid. $1 milllion/year: 80%, $2 million/year: 70%, etc. By $4 million/40%, $6 million 30%. $7 million: 25%. The cap hit would be what is actually paid.

 

So the player will be well compensated compared to an average human being, and for doing nothing, but the team has at least some leverage with a guy like Semin.

 

"Alex, you are making $7 million to play, but will make $1.75 million to not play. Do you really want to not play?"

 

If each team could only use this once a year or even once every two years, it would at most affect 1/40 of the team in player-years. Hardly a major blow to the players in general. Also the cut guy would be free to sing another contract with a different team. So if he really can play and the team is just jobbing him, he's fine too.

 

All theoretical of course.

Edited by remkin

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I don't even know how the NFL was able to keep it in their recent CBA nevermind more league's getting it.

 

Would just be nice :D

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It's a lot easier to keep the status quo than it is to get it changed.  The NFL owners had what they wanted and were not about to bring that into play.  In the other leagues, the players have guaranteed contracts and the union doesn't want to put that into play.  As much as I would love to be able to rid ourselves of "The Enigma", it really isn't a contract if one side can tear it up. 

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The Enigma scored a nice goal last night.  He needed to do something to atone for the atrocious "back at ya" pass into Bellemore's skates that led to a goal.  Semin hears footsteps (or skating strides) and will do anything to rid himself of the puck.  Take a hit to make a play?  Not likely.

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It's a lot easier to keep the status quo than it is to get it changed.  The NFL owners had what they wanted and were not about to bring that into play.  In the other leagues, the players have guaranteed contracts and the union doesn't want to put that into play.  As much as I would love to be able to rid ourselves of "The Enigma", it really isn't a contract if one side can tear it up. 

 

At least in the real world contracts can be whatever is legally possible, and even not legal. A contract is still a contract if it has incentive clauses. The contract assumes the ability to play. It can't just be torn up, it can be torn up if certain minimum standards aren't met. I understand that the collective bargaining set the rules.

 

That said, I am just saying what I'd like to see, now what I expect to happen. That ship has sailed for now.

 

I guess the flip side is that the GM does not have to offer a super long mega contract, but to get certain guys you might. 

 

To me that gets me back to wondering about JR's "generosity". 

 

Did he HAVE to offer Ward, E and even J. NTC's to sign them? I don't know, but I doubt it.

Did he have to go so long on the term w/ Semin? Again, I don't know who was out there trying to grab Semin, but I wonder if JR really had to go so long on it. 

Edited by remkin

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To me that gets me back to wondering about JR's "generosity". 

 

Did he HAVE to offer Ward, E and even J. NTC's to sign them? I don't know, but I doubt it.

Did he have to go so long on the term w/ Semin? Again, I don't know who was out there trying to grab Semin, but I wonder if JR really had to go so long on it. 

 

Hammer...nail.  Hit it on the head.

 

Why do you offer full market value on a contract and give a NTC to a player?  I have no issue with using NTCs as a bargaining chip, but it should be with something coming back your way.  He doled out those NTCs to Staal and Ward way too soon in their careers, and paid top dollar.  He didn't go with any bridge type of contracts to get them to UFA status.  He went straight to locking them up long term.  Throw Skinner on that pile too with .  He has a big deal and a NTC that kicks in in a couple of years.  On Semin, just who was JR bidding against?  I don't think there was another GM in the league that would have come near the terms on that deal.  I feel JR thought he was too smart to make a mistake on these guys and he would never regret those deals.

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To me, I just hope he scores a goal in the next 2 games so that his goals cost a million a goal.

 

I am unwilling to pay more than a million a goal.

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Outside of a very painful buyout, the only way we're moving Semin is for another bad contract. What about Lecavalier for Semin? Philly seems about as done with Vinny as we are with Semin. 

 

Vinny:  34yo, 3 years left @ total of $10.5m, cap hit $4.5/yr

Semin: 30yo, 3 years left @ total of $21m, cap hit of $7m/yr

 

We'd have to eat some of Semin's salary to balance out the cap hit a bit, but even if we needed to buy Vinny out after next year that might be cheaper in the long run than buying out Semin this summer. I'm too lazy to figure out the exact numbers; if CapGeek were still around I'd just look it up :(.

 

Maybe it's a long shot that Lecavalier could help us, but longer than Semin bouncing back in Carolina? (if that's even an option at this point)  And at least we'd be adding a physical presence . . .

   
 

Edited by LakeLivin

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I was just thinking about the upcoming draft and the concussion issue when I recalled that Semin's 2012-13 season ended due to a concussion in April 2013.  He also got another bad one in Nov. 2013.  Did those mark the start of his downward spiral?

 

I'm not looking for excuses, I'm just trying to understand:twilight-zone:

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While the draft is taking most of the attention, how Francis deals with Semin will be pretty big too. If the Canes know what was wrong with him last year, they are not sharing. It was one of the first questions put to Brindy at his lunch and his response was basically "who knows?".

 

The only thing that is knowable for sure is that something was WAY off. Even in his worst times in Washington and his bad part of two years ago, nothing approached the utter futility of last year. If Semin was a relatively unknown AHL'er and was called up, he'd be sent down to Charlotte, and then again to the Everblades. Just off the graph bad.

 

Even if it is fixable, there is the issue of the system, and what the coach wants to instill and Semin never really filling that, even when mostly on his game...this is why I still think some kind of crazy trade (see the Kessel rumor) or a buy out might be the end result.

 

If it weren't for that (not fitting Peters's system even on his game), it would be tempting to tell him that this is his last shot, and give him a month or so, then waive him etc. I just think that last year got so bad, and he is such a round peg in Peter's square hole that is hard to see Peters really wanting him back at all.

Edited by remkin

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rem, just to be clear, I'm not posing that question in relation to the question of what to do with Semin.  I suspect that whatever the reason for his disastrous past season, Semin doesn't have enough bridge left standing to come back.  

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rem, just to be clear, I'm not posing that question in relation to the question of what to do with Semin.  I suspect that whatever the reason for his disastrous past season, Semin doesn't have enough bridge left standing to come back.  

 

Understood. I'm just using it as a jumping off point that it will be interesting to see how Francis handles this.

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Were stuck with him. Peters just needs to keep sitting him if thats what it takes to get his attention.  If he ends up playing 50 games so what? Whoever is skating in 'his' spot will show more heart and desire anyway.  Just another Rutherford parting gift.

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