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Whaler1

The Semin Enigma....

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You won't hear Tripp talk smack about Staal often.  I still contend that he has a picture of Staal pinned to the ceiling above his bed :wacko:  

 

Semin has made himself an easy target this year.  It's not just Tripp, the NHL network was giving it to him pretty good a few nights ago and Forslund has made mention of him on several occasions.  When nobody picks you up because you are rumored to be the player that you are becoming, people are going to say something about it.  When you watch the Canes play, he does stand out as a player not doing what the others (most shifts) are doing.  I do think there are many opportunities for others on the team to be called out, I definitely am not saying that.  I just think that given the rumors before we picked Semin up, it makes it a tougher battle for him since he is proven them right, if not exceeding it a bit.

 

I would be very happy if he had a 4 point night tonight, 2 G and 2 A.  Given the start to the season, nobody up here would expect it.  The first year we had him, this would not have sounded out of line.  Maybe tonight is the turning point for Semin, let's all hope so!! :pray:

Edited by allboys

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Tripp may be a homer and not call out a lot of guys, but darn it, it's hard for me to fault anyone for trashing Semin.  No Canes player in my memory has raised his level of under-performance (given the talent level) even near to what Semin has shown this season.  While EStaal may not always give us what we would like to see, he has never been as comepletely useless as Semin has this season.

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The Semin thing has several levels of consequences. But straight up, Semin playing at his full potential vs. what we are seeing is the single biggest thing keeping us from at least hanging around the playoff discussion until we get J back.

 

It is absolutely not 100% on him, but he is absolutely the single biggest problem. We are getting strong goaltending, and while we are #22 in goals against, big losses in October when our goaltending was shaky and our team was thin, accounted for a lot of that. Our number one problem is now scoring goals where we currently rank #26 in the league. 

 

We need our scorers to score. Teams need at least a few of those guys that are so good you really can't stop them more than a game or two. Further, the stats we looked at earlier on this board, comparing offensive production vs. pay, show that generally winning team have to get their production from the guys being paid that way. When that doesn't happen teams tend to lose. i would add, especially when one of their other highest paid forwards is out long term. 

 

A team like the Canes, where optimistic projections for what this line up would do when healthy, is upper middle of the pack, cannot sustain multiple blows to our top producers and have even a chance at average. If you want to see what a team like the Canes look like with multiple top producers out or ineffective, look at October. Winless.

 

We got E and Skinner back and in November, it actually has been much better, though recently the results have not been there. Our goal differential is positive since we got E and Skinner back. November around 34-29. And aside from an empty netter (see below) we have only lost one game by more than one goal (that was 2 goals, the debacle where the team didn't show up vs. Winnipeg).

 

What I am driving at is that a few more goals produced by a full potential Semin would have a very high likelihood of leading directly to more points in the standings. It is impossible to know how many, but my analysis suggests a full potential Semin would have lead to an estimated 5 more points in the standings. But further, they would have been this month, when the team was full sans J. 

 

What I am trying to say is that current state of this team, as is, with just a full potential Semin is a road playoff team. Don't believe me, go look at the calendar on the main website that show the scores in November. Sprinkle in about 6 more goals generated. Count the wins and losses. Project that over a full season.

 

Remember winless October we were w/out E and Skinner for stretches, on top of J and a feckless Semin. 

 

So at least in theory, if you imagine a healthy J Staal out there, and a full potential Semin....this is a playoff team. Not necessarily digging out of this hole, but the quality on the ice.

 

It is just so frustrating that this team cannot get there. Outside of J. who obviously can't help it. The single biggest reason right now is Semin. 

 

(I am not even counting the side factors such as bringing the team down w/ such a bad example).

 

 

The problem for this year is that this team needs Semin. Especially since our only chance is to go on a stretch where we are winning at a high percentage. If by some miracle, like last year, Semin finds his game, and we get J back...it still could get interesting. If Semin continues like this, it is nearly impossible. 

 

The thing is that at the start of the year we had arguably 4 highly paid guys that we needed to find out about: Staal, Staal, Ward, and Semin. So far Semin stands out as the one guy who long term absolutely needs to be gone. But the big problem is this year.

 

I think there may be major changes at the deadline, but as crazy at this sounds, if the only change was a high pick in this deep draft and Semin gone and replaced with a legit top 6 winger, I could see a much better result for this team. As Linholm, Fluery and the new pick fold in. 

 

But for right now, it all comes down to Semin.

Edited by remkin

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nothing would be better than Semin turning it all around.  Rooting for you Alex, you looked decent tonight in pittsburgh.  It seems possible, Cmon Alex, passion and determination on top of your talent equals success.  Do it. 

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I'll tell you this, if Semin does turn it up, this team could really go on a run. Even with the disappointing losses, November is miles ahead of the start. We are in every game, and if we just had a touch more scoring consistently, we could get on a roll. Get J back maybe in December....you never know...

Edited by remkin

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I think Semin is playing well without the puck. He looks solid defensively, for the most part, and positions himself well. But when he gets the puck he loses all composure. He just doesn't seem to have the confidence to play his game. He has such a laser shot, but he never uses it. I'm hoping that once he finally nets that first goal all the weirdness will go away. 

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I'm hoping that once he finally nets that first goal all the weirdness will go away. 

 

I'm not sure how is going to score without shooting the puck!  Maybe somebody will pot one off his backside?

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Keep Cam. Instead, package the whole "first" line and let's begin building for next season already.

 

What a difference a couple of games makes. Ya think the first liners (Staal and Tlusty specifically) got a talking-to before the game in the Steel City?

 

This is going to be our season: fits and starts, at least until J is back. When that happens he will either fit seamlessly into the mix or struggle to do so, but I'm leaning more toward the first scenario. J's history is coming back early, strong and primed.

 

My guess is that regardless what Semin does between now and then, Peters is still itching to move Eric to J's first-line wing. There is tremendous upside to keeping Eric if he plays there; it could be the difference between him collecting mostly meaningless points and being the game-changing scorer we all know he can be. Combine that with the depth our yutes have demonstrated across the other lines, and Alex becomes trade bait at the deadline. If he's not moved then to some (delusional) team that thinks he's that last needed piece, he'll be bought out when the season is over. 

Edited by top-shelf-1

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Fits & Starts..(could not agree more)..  Every season its something new with this group, but no doubt the spits, fits and sputters of the first line is this years misery...I hope, but find it hard to think J's return will find him anywhere close to mid season form. Without some blockbuster deal for a top 6 D-man, and a top 6 puck mover / scorer.. im not so sure that McDavids Canes sweater is that far out of the conversation yet..

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My guess is that regardless what Semin does between now and then, Peters is still itching to move Eric to J's first-line wing. There is tremendous upside to keeping Eric if he plays there; it could be the difference between him collecting mostly meaningless points and being the game-changing scorer we all know he can be. Combine that with the depth our yutes...

 

Hmmmm.  Been having dinner with Chuck K?  He said about the same this morning.

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Hmmmm.  Been having dinner with Chuck K?  He said about the same this morning.

No kidding? Well, you know what they say about great minds thinking alike. Apparently lesser minds do, too!  :D

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I can't remember any players returning after long term injuries and being nearly the player they typically are within the same season. We've had more then our fair share of long term injuries to draw that from as well. Quite a few have bounced back the following year but rarely if ever in the same year. We haven't seen many broken bones though so maybe that will play a different tune.

 

More then welcome to seeing it happen, but I wouldn't put any money on it. Keeping my expectations low with this team.

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So after watching Semin closely in The Nashville win at home, I think I've come to the conclusion of what his main problem is.  CONDITIONING!   Semin actually played and tried really hard tonight. The problem is his gas tank emptys fast and his legs turn to jelly long before his linemates are done and ready to get off.  Watch him on the bench, everyone is kind of breathing hard and Alex is looking like I do on a hungover satuday morning trying to play pickup hockey and taking 4 minute shifts.   Seriously, I don't think he did much this summer.  He'll be a step behind everyone most of the season if its conditioning but he could get better as he gets caught up.  My opinion on it all. At least he looked like he gave a crap tonight.     

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I can't remember any players returning after long term injuries and being nearly the player they typically are within the same season. We've had more then our fair share of long term injuries to draw that from as well. Quite a few have bounced back the following year but rarely if ever in the same year. We haven't seen many broken bones though so maybe that will play a different tune.

 

More then welcome to seeing it happen, but I wouldn't put any money on it. Keeping my expectations low with this team.

 

I think LaRose was LaRose after his cleanly broken leg.  But that was a clean break, no surgery.  

 

I agree with you otherwise.  I don't think J. can be 100% this year.  I think E. is still suffering from his summery mystery surgery.

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 I think E. is still suffering from his summery mystery surgery.

 

He did this the past 2 years as well I think? I wish he would sit out a week or 2 and come back at 100% rather than play injuried at 70% trying to help the team. It would help the team more in the long run I think.

 

To add I think Semin has looked just as good as Staal the past few games. Other than Stalls faceoffs and maybe 1 net drive per game he's been losing every board battle and turning over just about as many pucks as Semin.

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I think LaRose was LaRose after his cleanly broken leg.  But that was a clean break, no surgery.  

 

I agree with you otherwise.  I don't think J. can be 100% this year.  I think E. is still suffering from his summery mystery surgery.

It has more to do with attitude than mechanics, IMO. These guys have been been skating since they could walk. Jordan and Rosie are just more all-round aggressive and therefore more likely to jump back in with both feet. Interesting that J is the same height as Eric. If E would put on the additional 15 lbs his "little" brother carries, he'd feel a lot better in front of the net. 

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It has more to do with attitude than mechanics, IMO. These guys have been been skating since they could walk. Jordan and Rosie are just more all-round aggressive and therefore more likely to jump back in with both feet. Interesting that J is the same height as Eric. If E would put on the additional 15 lbs his "little" brother carries, he'd feel a lot better in front of the net. 

If E put on 15 lbs we might loose some of his blazing speed. :coollaugh:

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I can't believe that after one quarter of the season Semin isn't in game shape. It has to be something else. I'm also having a hard time believing an athlete has lost interest or is dogging it. It has to be something else.

 

I tried to watch him in the Nashville game. He seemed to play alright without the puck. He didn't seem out of place in the system and he was skating fine. But with the puck he hesitates to shoot, his passing is better but not what it once was. I think he has lost confidence or the wrist although healed isn't right. Of course I don't know but it can't just be Alex doing a disappearing act.

 

The problem of course is he isn't being paid to be tough to play against alone. He is being paid for his speed and his scoring.  I hope he regains form, I really do.

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I think he is out of shape. Until the last three games he wasn't even skating,just floating. Now that he is at least keeping up with the pace his conditioning is coming into play.If you look at him on the bench after a shift that he does skate,he looks like he is ready to have a stroke,sucking for air and making painful facial expressions.Maybe someday we will find out what the initial problem was. I think it is related to pain.

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By Peters' own standard, if Alex is out of shape he shouldn't be lacing 'em up. Simple as that.

 

Even with zero NHL experience at forward, the much more reasonably priced Ryan Murphy looked more engaged, could play the point on the PP and was certainly in shape. I'm not suggesting Murph be brought back as a winger (yet), just saying that rehabbing a player at NHL game speed is a road fraught with disappointment, not to mention very risky. We should've learned that with E last season. Send him to Charlotte for conditioning - and maybe to see how the "other half" lives.

 

At minimum, if he can't handle second-line minutes, Alex shouldn't be on the second line. With each game that he's in a top-six roster slot, Peters' "hammer" begins to look a lot more like a comfy chair.

 

ComfyChair_zps2332371c.jpg

 

Here's hoping reconnecting with his bestie Ovy tonight sparks something that lets Semin find his second wind. The other 11 forwards could sure use it.

Edited by top-shelf-1

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