Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Whaler1

The Semin Enigma....

Recommended Posts

Guess that's a matter of interpretation. All I heard him say was that he is now medically cleared to skate after not skating for 8 or 9 days and that he needs to get into game shape and up to speed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess, I took that he was irritated he only skated twice over the past 8 days and was fine to skate and choosing not to. Meh, Semin isn't worth debating over haha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bottom line: The team is a much better team when Semin is healthy.  It's obvious he is still injured and Semin's game depends on his wrist and right now his wrist is not 100% hence the lakc of production.  I don't think it has anything to do with worth ethic at this point.  He is playing injured.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of course I'm with you on that BD, as I have been on about for a while.

 

What a difference Semin can make though. This team is laking skill and even a 90% Semin in his first game back has a notable effect.

 

Crazy as it sounds, if there is a healthy Semin on the horizon, he could stay on this team a while. To me the "heart" issue is overblown. He is not a mucker and never will be, but he is an elite creator of offense, and there are only so many of them out there. Combine this with his contract and recent production and the quesiton will be: is it worth throwing him away?

 

If he is healty, I think not.

 

If that wrist is shot....probably.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are dozens of "elite" forwards who play tough on the boards and don't mind mucking, grinding, and playing physical when the situation demands it.  I don't buy the give Semin a pass argument because he's an "elite" creator of offense.

 

Not suggesting your saying that Rem, but in today's game you have to be good at most everything to be considered an elite player, at least from my point of view.

 

To me, when playing at the top of his game, Semin is a good, maybe even a great player.  He'll never fit into my elite category though.

Edited by coastal_caniac

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to CapGeek, a Semin buyout will cost the Canes $14m and save only $7m over what's left of his contract.   I could see someone like the Leafs absorbing that, but I don't see the Canes doing it unless things seem completely hopeless (i.e., practically no chance of Semin ever contributing again).  

 

I said this already in a post on a different thread, but it's worth repeating here:

 

The issue mgmt will be evaluating isn't Semin @ $7m/yr over the next 3 years. The issue will be whether Semin is worth $2.33m/ yr for the next 3 years; the other $14m is already gone

 

Without knowing a lot more about what Semin's injury issues were/ are/ will likely be, I personally don't feel comfortable even expressing an opinion as to what the team should do with him.  Based on the eye test, I'm pretty sure his wrist isn't right and hasn't been for a long time.  What I'd love to know more about is the "lower body injury" that was listed as the primary reason he was most recently out.  I've been giving Semin a break on his wrist and criticizing him for not skating as a "head issue".  I'd love to know if something else might have been effecting his skating other than attitude.

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I get what you're saying Coastal. Kind of semantics in a way. Defining "elite". How few are elite? But in terms of overall players and assuming that elite means say, top 30 forwards in the league, creating winning for their team? True. He's not in that company.

 

But...

 

My contention is that on his game is an elite creator of offense, and better defensively than people think. He is not a fully complete elite superstar like Crosby or Toews or Datsyuk to be sure, but before we picked him up, his advanced stats showed him to be much better defensively than he's given credit for. 

 

His best year, 09-10 he was #7 in the league w/ 40 goals, and #13 in points. He was also +36. 5th best on his team. Hard not to call that elite.

 

His first year here in Carolina, he was #24 in the league in points. And a Plus 14 on a losing team good for #2 (one point behind the leader).  He was on a point per game clip. Also elite.

 

I get that the last two years he has not been there. And this year has been just off the charts bad.

 

But I'm not sold no the idea of him being light of heart, and may be overblown, assuming he has been significantly hindered by injury, because even his most "coach killing" years in Washington, his advanced stats were very good. It just doesn't make sense that he just quit this year. He has to be playing injured. 

 

IF Semin is a head case, then forget it. But if he's been injured, the question is will he ever be right? That is, will his wrist ever fully heal?  If he is, he is a near ppg player, and he can still help the team even relative to his salary.

 

 

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Coastal wrote:

 

If he's injured to the point that he is only on pace for 2 goals for an 82-game season why is he playing?

 

It's a fair question.

 

 

 

Absolutely it is a fair question.

 

Of course I suspect for all of us at this point it is pure conjecture why he would play hurt. The first point I guess is that your point about goals almost proves that he must have been (or continue to be) hurt. The guy is on a Westgarth pace, and a healthy Semin would put more that that in by accident.

 

To conjecture. Semin broke his wrist. Say it was his scaphoid bone. He then played with it injured before having surgery. I defer immediatly to any orthopedists out there, but that particular injury is known for a high rate of complications and even poor healing post surgery.

 

Now, you're Semin. You're being paid millions to produce. You've had the surgery. You've had your recovery. You are supposed to be all better. But your wrist still ain't right. It's a bit better than it was, but you still cannot get an NHL caliber shot off to save your life and if you catch it wrong going into a scrum it hurts for days. Maybe the coach asks you if you are ok. Maybe you say the wrist is a bit sore, but you can try to play through it. You've had the surgery and recovery time after all, what else are you going to do?

 

Maybe the new coach, now down Jordan Staal, and then Eric and Skinner during this time just needs you in there. Maybe at least you're a decoy. Maybe you can play through it, at least until Eric or Skinner get back? or Jordan?

 

So you try but you really cannot be at all effective with the dammaged wrist. Further, you don't want to make it worse by digging hard in the boards. You pretty much can't shoot even a Westgarth wrister (sorry pylon). So you start floating around a bit. Now your coach calls you out as a healthy scratch. Or maybe no one wants to admit the injury, so it goes in as a healthy scratch.

 

But even after that you just can't go and finally the charade ends, and you are listed as having a lower body injury and, what, also an upper body injury,

 

This is pure rank speculation on my part. But given Semin's history, (not his rumored attitude, but his actual play and production) it is more feasible than Semin just up and utterly quit and started just mailing it in out of spite or something.

 

I am guessing, but I did put this out there before he got scratched for injury, and proceeded to miss a bunch of games, so it still seems plausible.

 

I will say this. The guy is just too good to be this bad, so it has to be one or the other. Injury or psyche. I'm betting it's mostly injury.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Best as I can gather from the Google translation of this interview with Semin's agent (http://www.sovsport.ru/gazeta/article-item/768089):

  • Semin's wrist had been an issue for five years, and finally got to the point there was no option except surgery.
  • He recovered quickly from that surgery.
  • He has dealt with a series of other issues (groin and back) since then. (The back has been a concern before, and was mentioned during the Olympics - not by the team, of course. Forslund mentioned it as a possible concern earlier this season as well. I believe illness has also been mentioned, though that might have been after this interview.)
  • The doctor recommended he not play for a week (hence the time he was not playing).
  • Once everything is healed, he is expected to be back to 100%. (Of course, this is from his agent, so take that for what it is worth.)
 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting Invisible. If true that would shoot down my "wrist isn't better" theory. But why so little shooting? The back?

 

Is the back the "upper body" injury? Is the groin the "lower body" injury? Both would affect things a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That would be my guess for UBI and LBI. There may be a confidence issue with the wrist, after so many years with it not right. And the other issues could affect his shot as well (and the skating, which was a common complaint). But I doubt Semin's agent is likely to say his wrist isn't good after surgery, even if it isn't, so I'm not sure it can be written off until we see him back taking shots like he has in the past.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Best as I can gather from the Google translation of this interview with Semin's agent (http://www.sovsport.ru/gazeta/article-item/768089):
  • Semin's wrist had been an issue for five years, and finally got to the point there was no option except surgery.
  • He recovered quickly from that surgery.
  • He has dealt with a series of other issues (groin and back) since then. (The back has been a concern before, and was mentioned during the Olympics - not by the team, of course. Forslund mentioned it as a possible concern earlier this season as well. I believe illness has also been mentioned, though that might have been after this interview.)
  • The doctor recommended he not play for a week (hence the time he was not playing).
  • Once everything is healed, he is expected to be back to 100%. (Of course, this is from his agent, so take that for what it is worth.)

 

HA!  In the main thread I just wondered if Semin might have a groin injury, but only because Kjun suggested his injury might be related to his marrage this summer.  :D

 

On a more serious note, imo Semin's Agent/ Canes Brass aren't doing Alex any favors by keeping the hometown faithful in the dark about whatever it is he's actually been going through . . .

Edited by LakeLivin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Semin was an elite scorer at one time.  Semin had about 20 good games at the start of a lockout shortened season in Carolina.  Since then, Semin has been more pylon-ish than elite-ish.  If he has been playing through injury to the point that he is useless, then shame on the organization.  He was shown the door in Washington, and not signed to a significant deal then for some reason.  He has come back and had one decent game with one assist and it's now excuse time?

 

Defend him all you want, I'm still waiting to be impressed...$35 million dollars worth of being impressed.  His contract is an albatross and he would have to play at an "elite" level for the rest of this year and well into next for him to be even considered by another team.

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's more about the future at this point. Clearly his production last year and even more this year has been stageringly bad. Is that a word? If it is in his head, then we need him gone at all costs, if he is injured though, then is it fixable?

I do think that the loss of Semin (even when he was playing (no, especially when he was playing this year) does point out acutely the problem with this team: lack of top level (elite?) offensive talent producing at that level. But Semin can be that. Just watching him that last game back, he made more offensive plays in one game than the rest of the team has in 5 games.

Semin may not be the ideal guy to be the top scorer, but if he's healthy he is clearly better than just about anyone else save maybe Skinner and E, and eventually maybe Lindholm.

This team is playing the Detroit system very well. We are doing very well w/ mediocre talent on defense limiting shots and even goals. The PK is good. The PP, well you need those talented guys. And that's where we part company w/ Detroit. We do not have Datysuk or Zetterberg. Or at least "our Datysuk and Zetterbergs are not playing like it.

OK OK I'll give you the line, there are more differences between us and Detroit than their top guys. I agree, they have a winning tradition and draft much better, but on the ice, that's the main difference right now. Put Zetterberg and Datysuk on our team for J and Semin from day one. We may not be in 9th in the league but we might be close to it.

 

Right now Detroit has 4 forwards that would be leading our team in scoring.

But the real issue is what to do w/ Semin. Is he all better? Can he return to form? Or are his injuries unfixable? I guess until we know that we can't do much of anything with him.

 

I do get that it is really hard to see Semin getting back to where he's been, and he may not. But at this point, we might as well find out. Unless he really starts too much winning.

 

The good news to me is that we do have the system. We need to find the scoring, and if we do, it could be really nice. It will be interesting to see how Francis goes about it. Of course drafting McDavid would solve it pretty quick.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think his salary makes that almost assured.

 

If Semin is now mostly healthy (a big if) and starts producing, he could be a deadline deal. Not that we'd get much for him, but might be able to move him on....but w that contract....gets back to your point about not keeping back money on Ward. Might be a way to move Semin IF he gets really hot...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least Peters hasn't thrown him right back into the top-6.  I'm anxious to see what he can do with Rask and Skinner.  Just feels like a better fit with Rask than Nash.

 

I am a big Semin critic, but I have to admit that he looks like he can produce with Rask and Skinner.  He looks so SLOW, but if he is fighting a bad back, I can understand it.  Hopefully it will heal because we could sure use his talent if he could skate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dumb question:
What's to keep us from sending him to the minors and hoping someone claims him on waivers?  How much of his contract would we be still on the hook for in that scenario?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...