Jump to content
The Official Site of the Carolina Hurricanes
Sign in to follow this  
AWACSooner

Official Trade Deadline, Re-signing, Trade Talk "Maybe it's really a fire sale" thread

Recommended Posts

Just want to start by saying @ Colliefan I hope you feel better and happy to hear you are ok.

 

I have been away for a little while and so much has gone on,man. I will just throw it out there that I am very much in the camp of get Connor Mcdavid however we can.

 

With two possible (and likely) first round picks do we use them to trade up with if we do not win the lottery? Do we stand pat and draft lower still quality guys? I think Mcdavid and or Eichel would be awesome here and would be a true sign that we are thinking about our future and not just trying to plug holes in a sinking boat.

 

We have other assets to trade and play around with so I think we need to be all in on the Mcdavid sweepstakes, this would also send a message to the league, the team and all the players saying: hey things are different around here we are commited to winning and want to create a winning culture.

 

I have not been this excited for anything Hurricanes related for years. Ronnie so far is slaying it as GM. We have a GM who now trades assets we are at risk of losing instead of letting walk to UFA, thats a win any day! The return for Sekera was ideal. Very happy with the direction of the Canes at the moment.

Edited by Kopes2718

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No team is going to trade out of the top 2 for another mid to late 1st rounder.  Those top 2 slots will go to the teams that "win" them.

 

Put yourself in the shoes of the team that owned the top 1 or 2 pick.  What kind of return would you expect to get back to give up on one of two guys touted as generational talents?

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Super Dave,

 

I would say it would be rather large, thats why I said it would send a message that we are serious about our future etc. Also why I speculated and asked opinions and thoughts. It is an interesting concept but two first round picks does yeild some wiggle room. Bottom line is we need one of those guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

thanks for the wished for a speedy recovery,  after spending a month in the nursing home I realize how fortunate I am the impact of the stroke was not as bad as it could have been,  Have some slurred speech and some frozen muscles on the right side of my body mostly on my face and arm and leg.  There were some people at the home who were devastated by a stroke.  Not going to let this thing beat me.  Have to practice getting stronger each day.  In addition to this mess I am dealing with a enlarged prostrate

My dad put it best, colliefan: Gettin' old ain't for sissies!!

 

Best wishes for a speedy and full recovery - one day at a time, my friend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the stakes? ;)

Got any Canes memorabilia you're willing to part with? I'll put up your choice: a bobblehead (E. Staal or Ruutu), a Canes Christmas ornament with flashing LED, or a framed pic of Glen Wesley celebrating a Canes goal during the '06 playoffs (includes the "Stanley Cup Champions" logo). All of these are unsigned. 

 

To be clear on the bet: if LA sweeps or wins their first series in five, I win. If they lose or it goes beyond five games (regardless of the winner), you do.

 

Maybe you want to up the ante? If L.A. wins their first-round series, regardless of the number of games, I get whatever item of yours I picked for the original bet and one more item of my choice; if their opposition wins the series, you get the same option. (I put this proposal on the table since you seem confident L.A. doesn't get beyond the first round.)  

 

And (stating the obvious) if LA doesn't get in, all bets are off.

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Super Dave,

 

I would say it would be rather large, thats why I said it would send a message that we are serious about our future etc. Also why I speculated and asked opinions and thoughts. It is an interesting concept but two first round picks does yeild some wiggle room. Bottom line is we need one of those guys.

I could actually see a team like the Oil doing this, trading the top pick for our two first rounders and E. Staal, MAYbe. A deal like that would give a struggling franchise an "instant future" and a vet for the now. But since we're in the same boat, I don't see us doing it. RF is clearly determined to build for the long term and first-round picks are the key to doing so. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First, let me joing the chorus wishing Colliefan best and wish you recovery. You've been contributing to these boards greatly for a long time and I for one am glad you are still posting. Get well.

 

Now onto the idea of trading up. Long shot at best.

 

There are three ways we get a piece of McEichel, but #2 is slim, but our best shot.

 

1. A monumental collapse while Buffalo slips up by winning a few, very unlikely. They have 10 points on us and have played 2 more games. There are only about 20 games left for them. Plus they are "all in" on last place and make no bones about it. This just is not happening. (After reading below, you may see why I think Buffalo is brilliant about doing SRM to the max.)

 

2. Win the lottery. You never know, but long shot.

 

3. Trade the farm. Like Top said, E, both of our firsts, a prospect.....maybe.

 

The price for moving up to #1 is generally very very high most years. This year it is much higher and moving to #2 will be the same price as moving to #1 in past years. What GM wants to be known as the guy who had Crosby etc on his plate and passed? Huge risk to the reputation even if it is a great hockey move.

 

This link is really good for getting a historical idea of what it usually costs to move up. Except this year there really are two #1 picks.

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

 

Basically the #1 pick usually costs some combination of TWO of the top 5 picks, or THREE picks including at least one in the top 6.

 

Since the LA move is protected from us getting into the top 14 picks this year, and we are projected around #6 on our own pick, those two picks would be nowhere near enough even in an average year.

 

Using the point system outlined in that link, if we end up at #6, and LA ends up at say #20. That would be 68 points of a needed 100 points. That would leave a gap of 32 points, which is the value of the #12 pick.

 

So, we would have to get a non playoff teams' pick at around #12. Then trade #6, #12, and #20 to do it. BUT that's an average year. McEichel is so hyped to be generational, there is no doubt the price would be higher.

 

See why SRM is so enticing....all you have to do is give up meaningless wins in a lost season, then get part of McEichel AND keep all of your other picks. You may not like the idea of it, but that is what is on the table. But Buffalo figured this out and was in the best position to craft a SRM strategy and is pulling it off.

 

So basically we have our small chance of winning the lottery, but otherwise forget any part of McEichel, that would have taken full committment to SRM long ago.

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To colliefan, very glad to hear you're recovering and just hang in there!! The "game" we crave obviously takes 2nd seat behind ours or loved ones health.

 

On the trades, was pleased with both altho, like many, was disappointed with the return on Tlusty. Another example of how fans "over value" their players. However, considering if Trusty decides to return, that does put a new light on things.

 

As to the fantasy being expressed by some of attempting to use our 2 1st round picks to trade down to #1 or #2, I think we'd have a "snowball's chance in you know where".1st of all, the 1st we got from LA is conditional, thus not a sure thing this year. 2nd, and IMHO much the more germaine, which GM would even consider trading away a #1 or #2 pick This Year, with a chance at a generational talent? To make that even vaguely likely, I'd imagine we'd have to throw in a Skinner or Staal, and the GM still might laugh?

 

Sorry rem, didn't see your post before I finished mine. Yours is certainly more "elegant"!!

Edited by KJUNKANE

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See why SRM is so enticing....all you have to do is give up meaningless wins in a lost season, then get part of McEichel AND keep all of your other picks. You may not like the idea of it, but that is what is on the table. But Buffalo figured this out and was in the best position to craft a SRM strategy and is pulling it off.

 

Yeah, tank already.

 

If it looks like a...

canstock5453491.jpg

 

Sounds like a ...

canstock5453491.jpg

Acts like a ...

 

canstock5453491.jpg

Must be a ...

canstock5453491.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let me add to those wishing colliefan a speedy recovery.

 

Francis didn't rule out moving a roster player before deadline. I think it might even be likely but I'm not sure it will be one of the "franchise" players. I'm not sure what the return will be but right now I don't think we have the chips to trade up in the draft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rem, spot on as always. Thats the kind of stuff I was looking for. All in all this year and 2016 will be an exciting time to be a Canes fan. I hope RF has more tricks up the sleeve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want to just add a thought to the conversation regarding one or both of these guys potentially coming back. While Tlusty was diplomatic about it and left the door open to returning, and though RF (taking the wise, measured approach) hasn't ruled anything out, I will be very, VERY surprised if either show up again in a Canes uni, and here's why:

 

They had a chance to be a part of the rebuild, and they refused.

 

I really hope, and have reason to think - based on his public comments regarding his intentions with the franchise - it is just that black and white in RF's mind. And I am pretty confident BP is right there with him, as the guy who has to re-jigger lines and pairings and decide what can or might work versus who we need to acquire or promote from within to fill these new gaps. 

 

If these players were genuinely interested in helping secure the new GM's and new coach's vision for the future, they would have stayed around and taken a half million or a million less to do so. They'd have made that commitment now. It should be clear to anyone paying attention that the org's top priority is knowing by the end of the regular season who we want to keep and who we're okay with losing (or actively trying to lose). But these two - it was made clear by the organization that they had already earned "keeper" status, and they decided to walk. That was THEIR choice. I don't begrudge it, it is their right - but it also means that they wasted RF's valuable time, and ultimately forced him to bargain for pieces to ensure he covered their loss. I think he did so to a fare-thee-well, and wouldn't be a bit surprised if he's already moved on.

 

Time heals all wounds and I get that maybe, at some point, if everything aligns just right, they could be invited back. But right now, if I'm RF or BP, I'm saying (privately, of course), "Thanks for your service, good luck with whatever's next - and don't let the door hit you in the a$s as you leave." 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Top Shelf, I wouldn't read too much into Tlusty and Sekera having a "chance to be a part of the rebuild, and they refused".  They just want to see what is out there for them in free agency.  In the same token, they left a bird in the hand hoping for two in the bush.  RF may find someone that he'd rather have and use that money in another way.  Either or both could return.  Either or both may not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree w/ Top, maybe not for the exact same reasons though.  I don't think these guys are coming back in the end. Sekera seems to really want to move on, and Tlusty, well, he's going to want to get paid for that great partial season, or at least have that seriously factored in, and that will be more cash than we are wlling to pay him, or probally should.

 

I would love it if Sekera wanted back, but I just really doubt it. His chance to stay here was given and passed on but OUR chance to meet his price was let go also. We let him go. We didn't want to pay his price then, in UFA we will be one bid of many.

 

I would like Sekera back (obviously) but it would seem very unlikely indeed.

 

 

The thing is, we are going to need to restructure this thing before next year. The draft is going to be exciting, but unlikely to impact our offense or defense enough to matter next year.  Hainsey is not a top pair dman, and he is arguably the heir apparent now. Seems that the biggest need now is to find some plan to get a top pair dman. Oh, that's easy. :sarcasm: .

 

 

At this point quesiton #1 in my mind: how does Francis replace Sekera? We shall see...

Edited by remkin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice job by RF on the Sekera deal.  Too bad we couldn't sign him, but I like what RF has done getting a prospect and 1st rounder.

 

Great approach towards unsigned UFAs that prefer to test the waters.  

 

No rush to move anybody under contract at deadline unless the deal falls in your lap.  Better moves are usually available in the off season or at the draft when all teams are thinking about their needs, not just Playoff wannabes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't get the feeling Sekera will be back. Most of the reporting leading up to the trade seemed to indicate Sekera wanted $5 million or more. You got the feeling he knew this was his best chance for a big contract and was going to test the free market no matter the offer. It sounds like Francis would have thrown his best offer out and Sekera decided to decline. I doubt either party will resurrect negotiations.

 

With Tlusty you never got a sense their was a bottom line. The only thing I ever read was Francis wanted to re-sign him and Tlusty saying he would like to stay. I never saw any leaks on money or length or no trade. That would lead me to think Francis just decided he couldn't take a chance on reaching an agreement. Given Tlusty leaving the door cracked upon leaving and saying he regards Raleigh as his second home I could see at least more talk after the season.

 

I'm reading between the lines and there is no way to know. If Tlusty did return on our terms it sure would turn a ho-hum trade into a winner for us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't get the feeling Sekera will be back. Most of the reporting leading up to the trade seemed to indicate Sekera wanted $5 million or more. You got the feeling he knew this was his best chance for a big contract and was going to test the free market no matter the offer. It sounds like Francis would have thrown his best offer out and Sekera decided to decline. I doubt either party will resurrect negotiations.

 

With Tlusty you never got a sense their was a bottom line. The only thing I ever read was Francis wanted to re-sign him and Tlusty saying he would like to stay. I never saw any leaks on money or length or no trade. That would lead me to think Francis just decided he couldn't take a chance on reaching an agreement. Given Tlusty leaving the door cracked upon leaving and saying he regards Raleigh as his second home I could see at least more talk after the season.

 

I'm reading between the lines and there is no way to know. If Tlusty did return on our terms it sure would turn a ho-hum trade into a winner for us.

I get your reasoning, I just also think there is an (unstated) element of, "You had your chance to stay and opted to leave. Tough darts." I think Tlusty would have to return hat in hand and probably take even less than whatever we were offering. But I also think Mo is crazy about him and will, if Tlusty is even marginally successful in their playoff run, convince the Peg's GM to overpay him.

Edited by top-shelf-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I get your reasoning, I just also think there is an (unstated) element of, "You had your chance to stay and opted to leave. Tough darts." I think Tlusty would have to return hat in hand and probably take even less than whatever we were offering. But I also think Mo is crazy about him and will, if he is the least bit successful in their playoff run, convince the Peg's GM to overpay him.

 

I think your probable right that Mo will try and keep him. As for Francis, without a history we don't know if he will be so hard line as to say you have had your chance once you don't sign. You could make a case that would set the stage or serve as a warning for future player negotiations.

 

I'm not sure Tlusty will fit in our future. I not sure he should. I just get the impression the door might still be open if only by a crack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think Sekera will be back, but not because of RF not being willing to make an offer because of being butt hurt over Sekera no re-signing now.   Francis had a long career in the league and has negotiated a deal or two as a player.  He understands.  Contrary to what some here want to believe, Sekera didn't have any long term ties to this organization or any loyalty beyond playing for his team.  The only way to get him to sign now is to offer considerably more money than would be available in the summer.

 

Say RF offered $5mil for 4 years.  I say that's a nice offer, but Sekera will have several offers of that or more in a few months.  What reason would he take the offer other than he just loved life in Raleigh?  Sekera was had all the leverage.  RF had none.  Maybe Sekera likes Raleigh and will let RF have an opportunity to match an offer.  That is about all he could expect.  Maybe playing for a Cup contender will show him what he's been missing and he'll want to stay in LA or someplace similar.  My money is on Sekera getting his money and a chance to play for a contender now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't think LA has the cap space to keep Sekera, but after so many years on bad teams in Buffalo and Carolina, I can't see him signing with a rebuilding team (us or anyone else) unless the money and term is seriously better. I think that had a lot to do with his departure now. He obviously knew forcing a trade would take him to a playoff contender, and he got his wish. Mo or no Mo, everything I hear about Winnipeg makes me doubt Tlusty will want to stay there. But he will have other options besides Carolina too. Would not mind getting him back for the right price if Peters thinks he fits the system but my gut says the JR recycling machine has left town.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kopes, I agree that if Eichel or McDavid are what we have been led to believe, no GM wants t be the guy who traded away the next Crosby or Stamkos. That being said,there are good prospects well into the draft and we can use the extra 1st round pick to re-stock our nearly bare cupboard. We can all dream of winning the lottery, but failing that, we should still get some serious help for the future from this draft (don't forget we will also have the 3rd to 6th pick in 2nd round). Oh, and go Kings (until your 1st round playoff exit).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Top Shelf, I wouldn't read too much into Tlusty and Sekera having a "chance to be a part of the rebuild, and they refused".  They just want to see what is out there for them in free agency.  In the same token, they left a bird in the hand hoping for two in the bush.  RF may find someone that he'd rather have and use that money in another way.  Either or both could return.  Either or both may not.

 

Agree.  After all, RF abandoned us and retired in TOR and blew off our rebuild!

 

(OK, that's one view, I know you'll point out another)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree.  After all, RF abandoned us and retired in TOR and blew off our rebuild!

 

(OK, that's one view, I know you'll point out another)

 

Ronnie had a long and storied career in the organization.  Sekera had a sandwich and a cup of coffee here.  Apples...meet oranges.

 

I feel like I've become the resident grumpy old man of the board.  Now, get offa my lawn.

 

dana-carvey-grumpy-old-man.jpeg

Edited by super_dave_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't follow how Ronnie being traded as a rental was him blowing off a rebuild? He was there for all of 12 games. Then even had he stayed it's still likely he would have retired he was what 39, 40?

Edited by legend-1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...